На чьей стороне Трамп: Путина или Украины? Почему большинство людей неправильно понимают президента США? Сегодня я объясню, в чем состоит план Трампа, зачем на самом деле ему нужна сделка по украинским недрам и чего ждать от переговоров об окончании войны. Подробности — в новом ролике.
Телеграм: t.me/khodorkovski
Рекомендую к просмотру:
Как закончит Путин? Истории успешных революций. Народные восстания: https://youtu.be/zUl-1mxI1jw?si=snSQs2dWr6DCcLON
Падение рубля, инфляция и рост цен. К чему готовиться россиянам?: https://youtu.be/LY61mSeHfw0?si=Dt73cOeUc3a-IZ_O
Вся правда о кадыровском "Ахмате": https://youtu.be/wP_d96trGcI?si=h17VakwwvYzrh9sm
Кто стоит за блокировкой Ютуба: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWjFh0og9-8
Что случилось с Маском? От SpaceX до американской политики: https://youtu.be/HVJsu0eX3Vg
Что происходит в российской армии?: https://youtu.be/lowB1zs9Usw
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Телеграм: t.me/khodorkovski
Рекомендую к просмотру:
Как закончит Путин? Истории успешных революций. Народные восстания: https://youtu.be/zUl-1mxI1jw?si=snSQs2dWr6DCcLON
Падение рубля, инфляция и рост цен. К чему готовиться россиянам?: https://youtu.be/LY61mSeHfw0?si=Dt73cOeUc3a-IZ_O
Вся правда о кадыровском "Ахмате": https://youtu.be/wP_d96trGcI?si=h17VakwwvYzrh9sm
Кто стоит за блокировкой Ютуба: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWjFh0og9-8
Что случилось с Маском? От SpaceX до американской политики: https://youtu.be/HVJsu0eX3Vg
Что происходит в российской армии?: https://youtu.be/lowB1zs9Usw
Блог Ходорковского,Михаил Ходорковский,Ходорковский,Ходорковский Live,зеленский трамп,ссора зеленского с трампом,встреча трампа и зеленского,сша,трамп путин,переговоры,как трамп остановит войну,конец войны,зеленский,владимир зеленский,заморозка войны,переговоры по украине,редкоземельные металлы,план трампа,трамп,новости,политика трампа,путин,украина,мирные переговоры,переговоры путина и трампа,трамп мир,трамп война,заявление трампа,сша украина,мирное соглашение украина россия,трамп переговоры,зеленский уходит,мирный план,украина переговоры,перемирие,трамп сделка,политика,трамп о путине,трамп против зеленского,трамп выгнал зелинского,трамп зеленский перепалка,зеленский переговоры,конфликт трампа и зеленского,план трампа по украине,трамп зеленский спор,трамп про конец войны,прекращение огня,30-дневное прекращение огня,30 дней без огня,договорнячок,сша и россия,сша и россия встреча,сша и россия переговоры,за кого трамп?,трамп о зеленском,почему зеленский поссорился с трампом,мирные переговоры по украине,заморозка конфликта,венс,вэнс,трамп про путина,трамп путин звонок,переговоры сша,трамп позвонил путину,трамп о переговорах в украине,ультиматум трампа,военная помощь украине,переговоры о мире
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PeopleTranscript
00:00Greetings, friends!
00:02How can you justify Trump?
00:04Don't you see that he is a dictator, a fascist, a destroyer of democracy, a liar, a friend of Putin, a mentor of oligarchs?
00:12These are quite frequent comments that I have to hear.
00:16It seemed obvious to me that my attitude to Trump is rationalization and explanation.
00:22But since such questions arise, it means that I do not communicate clearly enough with the audience on this topic.
00:30So, what is Donald Trump from my point of view?
00:34What does he want in relation to the war in Ukraine?
00:37And how do I explain his actions?
00:39Let's imagine a hypothetical situation that Trump really admires Putin, wants to be friends with him and is ready to completely surrender Ukraine.
00:49Can you imagine?
00:50What can we do in this situation?
00:53My answer is nothing.
00:55The President of the United States has full power in foreign policy.
00:59If America ceases military deliveries to Ukraine, deprives it of intelligence data, removes sanctions from Putin, then this is the end of the story.
01:07Europe will not be able to quickly replace America with military aid, and Putin will have money and components for a fairly long war without much damage to the economy.
01:19What can be opposed to this?
01:21Nothing.
01:23All we have to do is discuss which cemetery to bury the world order and which remote island to go to not to see all this.
01:31Look, if Donald Trump really, not figuratively, not literally, but really builds a dictatorship, fascism or oligarchy in the United States,
01:41then there is hope for the American political system with its division of power, restraints and countermeasures, and mass protests.
01:48If he supports dictators and fascists outside the United States, then as long as the American people do not care, he can do almost anything.
01:58Trump is now the most influential person in the world.
02:01He is the legally elected head of state with the largest and most technologically advanced economy and the strongest and most modern army.
02:08He is supported by tens of millions of voters and businessmen with a personal joint state of several trillion dollars.
02:16If he is a crazy villain who intends to destroy the world together, for example, with Putin and Xi, then nothing can be done about it.
02:26This means that it makes no sense to discuss it.
02:29But it is more likely that Trump is really the one for whom half of the American voters voted.
02:36This is not a young, slightly comical and very stubborn person.
02:40He is ready to bravely destroy the institutions and agreements that, in his opinion, contradict common sense and his rather conservative view.
02:49At the same time, it seems to many that he does not always fully calculate the consequences of his brave actions.
02:55For example, he has already split up NATO and made his allies think about whether it is worth sharing intelligence data with America.
03:03And the US stock market has collapsed due to the trade war and is accelerating inflation.
03:08But he really has a desire to make America good.
03:12And he does not want to look weak.
03:15He does not really care about the rest of the world, but he is ready to listen to arguments and listen to them,
03:21if they are beneficial for his country and for his rating among his voters.
03:27And this scenario is really worth discussing and modeling,
03:31because here we can influence and the result will not necessarily be a disaster.
03:36Yes, within the framework of such a scenario, Trump can and makes mistakes, or at least what we consider mistakes.
03:44Yes, he is too much about pragmatism and about money, but not too much about values, which, in my opinion, is bad for America.
03:52Yes, he has a very peculiar approach to negotiations, which, to put it mildly, in our opinion, is not always good for international relations.
04:00But in this scenario, there is at least meaning and perspective.
04:04Therefore, my approach is Trump's rationalization.
04:08This is an attempt to understand, predict and use his actions.
04:12This is not an excuse and not sympathy for him, although I like his struggle with the deep state.
04:18And vice versa.
04:19Politically motivated persecution of opponents, restriction of freedom of speech,
04:23the inextricability of private life, which Vance spoke about in his controversial speech, and what Trump himself was subjected to.
04:30All this is deeply unsympathetic to me.
04:33But now we are not talking about this.
04:35I just don't think it makes sense to read endlessly about the options where Trump is a psychopath, a dictator, a fascist or an oligarch.
04:43How can we explain and predict the actions of the American president on the most important Ukrainian issue for us, Europeans, within the framework of a positive model?
04:55First, disposition.
04:57Trump, apparently, really wants to end the war.
04:59Maybe to fulfill a loud election promise.
05:02Maybe to go down in history.
05:04Or maybe just to wipe Biden's nose and show how much cooler he is than his grandfather.
05:08It doesn't matter what his motives are.
05:10At the same time, Trump has leverage of pressure on Ukraine.
05:13This is financial assistance, the supply of weapons and intelligence data.
05:17And there is a personal, obviously negative attitude to Zelensky.
05:20Perhaps because of the story of Biden's son, which barely ended with Trump's impeachment in 2019.
05:26Perhaps because of Zelensky's relationship with the Democratic Party.
05:29Perhaps for some other reason.
05:31It doesn't matter.
05:32On the contrary, to Putin.
05:34Trump personally seems to be doing well.
05:36But he also has leverage.
05:39These are sanctions that can be strengthened or weakened.
05:42This is the price for oil, to which he can influence within certain limits.
05:46And this, of course, is the size of the military aid to Ukraine.
05:49An important additional factor.
05:51The end of the war should be beautifully designed for the Trump voter.
05:56Beautifully is, with an explanation, beneficial for an ordinary American.
06:00Zelensky, of course, wants to stop the war or end the war.
06:04But he is in a difficult political position.
06:06The Ukrainian society is waiting for, if not victory, then at least not defeat.
06:11Victory implies the return to the borders of 1991.
06:14Stopping the war on the line of contact can be perceived negatively by the Ukrainian society.
06:20Not to mention any additional territorial losses.
06:24Perhaps the Ukrainian society will accept a compromise,
06:27in which the temporary impossibility to return the territory will be compensated for by certain security guarantees.
06:33And this moment is very important for Zelensky,
06:35because he is forced to focus on public opinion on the eve of the elections,
06:39which will sooner or later take place.
06:41At the same time, Ukraine has a very serious argument in all negotiations.
06:45No matter what Trump and Putin agree on,
06:47if Ukraine decides to continue to fight, there will be no deal.
06:51Until, of course, the Ukrainians can continue to resist.
06:59Now Putin.
07:01In this situation, he has a lot of free hands.
07:03In principle, he can afford to fight for a long time.
07:07But, first of all, this is only fair under the current conditions.
07:11In case of expansion of military aid to Ukraine,
07:13or tightening of sanctions or drop in oil prices,
07:16Putin will have serious restrictions.
07:19Secondly, even in an inertial scenario of the course of the war,
07:22he will soon need to make a number of not very comfortable decisions for him.
07:26This is the second wave of mobilization,
07:28the transfer of the economy to the military railways, and so on.
07:30These decisions are possible for him,
07:32but politically uncomfortable, and therefore unpleasant.
07:36From this position, Trump takes the first step.
07:40He offers Ukraine an agreement on the interior,
07:42the same one that is everywhere as an agreement on rare earth metals.
07:46Trump sounds it in his favorite manner,
07:49loud, public, rude, with elements of pressure on Ukraine and Zelensky.
07:53But in reality, this is just a show,
07:55which, according to Trump, his voter wants.
07:58And the voter wants to see how America gets very material benefits for its help
08:04and brutally squeezes everyone in negotiations.
08:07In reality, the agreement is a rather pointless framework
08:11that Trump needs from two points of view.
08:14First, it shows the American voter
08:16how much he managed to get for him where Biden lost.
08:20500 billion for foreign interests in exchange for military aid.
08:24This is a clear deal for the average American.
08:27This is America first.
08:29Second, the signed agreement on the separation of Ukrainian interiors
08:33allows Trump to talk more effectively with Putin.
08:36Look, Volodya, I don't have any negative for you,
08:38but you know, we have to protect our common interiors with Ukraine,
08:42so don't defend it.
08:44The real economic meaning of the agreement on the interiors
08:47is far from colonial robbery, as it is often presented in the press.
08:52Unfortunately, this is how Zelensky presented this agreement to Ukrainian society,
08:56which, in my opinion, greatly narrowed the space for maneuver both for himself and for America.
09:01In general, I got the impression that Zelensky decided for himself
09:04that Trump had already reached an agreement with Putin behind his back,
09:07and nothing can be changed here.
09:09And all that remains is to work on the internal Ukrainian audience,
09:13showing it its invulnerability.
09:16In my opinion, this is not so.
09:17Trump continues to pressure Zelensky and Putin.
09:20The pressure on Ukraine is much more public,
09:24which is caused both by Trump's personal hostility to the Ukrainian president
09:28and public disagreement with the deal between Zelensky and his administration.
09:33And this, by the way, is quite a big danger.
09:37Trump is trying to force Putin and Zelensky to make a deal.
09:40At the same time, sanctions are being extended to Putin,
09:42and they promise very tough measures against Energetik.
09:44This is a clear and clear signal.
09:53I also think that Russia wants to make a deal,
09:56because in a certain different way, a different way that only I know.
10:00Only I know. They have no choice either.
10:02In relation to Ukraine, Trump is clearly too tough,
10:06because there is more personal here.
10:08And here he risks bending the stick.
10:10First, for many, including Americans, this looks unfair.
10:15Trump, at least publicly, presses the victim of aggression more than the aggressor.
10:20Secondly, statements about the suspension of military aid and a pause in the presentation of intelligence data
10:26may not lead to the effect that Trump expects.
10:30Of course, I hope that in a week or two, when the agreement is signed,
10:34he will finish this demonstrative operation.
10:36But in fact, there is no guarantee that during this time,
10:39the absence of intelligence data and the declared suspension of military aid
10:43will not have a catastrophic impact on the people at the front,
10:47primarily psychological.
10:49This can be a very big problem.
10:51The front is based on people and discipline.
10:54And people are not a switch that is easy to click on both sides.
10:58I am not sure that Trump fully understands all the risks of this kind of pressure on Ukraine.
11:03But it seems to me that here he very clearly follows his usual model of negotiating.
11:09Roughly state clearly the above-mentioned requirements,
11:12scare everyone, then lower the tension and easily get what he originally wanted.
11:17Well, look how he did it with the Panama Canal.
11:20See how his approach to the Department of Efficiency, headed by Musk, changes.
11:25Entering with an elevated negotiating position is Trump's usual tactic.
11:29The main thing is that this position is not too elevated,
11:32because in a war situation it can be fatal.
11:36However, this risk is well understood in Europe.
11:39European leaders express their full support for Ukraine
11:42and promise to expand military aid, even if only in words.
11:46This should reassure the Ukrainian society and the main army.
11:50At the same time, both Macron and Stormer insist on Zelensky's return to negotiations with Trump,
11:55which I hope will happen in the near future.
11:58Thus, as I see it, Trump's plan for negotiations is as follows.
12:02Pressure Zelensky and Putin to force them into negotiations and some kind of compromise.
12:07The basis of American participation in the settlement will be an agreement on the development of the Ukrainian interior.
12:12This agreement will legitimize American participation for Trump voters, first of all, and for Putin, secondly.
12:19Specific parameters of the ceasefire and settlement,
12:23on the line or in contact, or somehow else, will be discussed by the parties and depend on the situation on the ground.
12:28The problem of possible new aggression by Putin or the resumption of the war
12:32will be proposed to be solved by Europe at its own expense and after some time.
12:36Will this plan work? We'll see.
12:39No guarantees. The chances are very low.
12:43Well, no one has any other plan.
12:46As I said, I will consider the agreement on settlement successful
12:50if the war is stopped in compliance with three simple conditions.
12:54First, the statehood of Ukraine will be preserved.
12:57Second, the ability of Ukraine to self-defense will be preserved.
13:00Third, the West will have the opportunity to continue supporting Ukraine.
13:04This is what I would expect from Trump.
13:07Not only me. But neither I, nor you, nor his voters.
13:11And he will focus on them.
13:14Good luck to you.
13:16I see a lot of worries about the personality, ideology,
13:20and moral qualities of the new American president.
13:23And you have to worry that the world has come to the situation
13:26that there is no one else to count on in the matter of stopping the war.