Three years into Russia’s brutal invasion, Europe is preparing for the worst. With Trump back in office, will the U.S. continue supporting Ukraine—or is Europe on its own? Leaders gathered in Kyiv to send a clear message: Europe is ready to fight back. But how will they counter Russia’s growing military force? And what happens if U.S. aid disappears? Watch now for a deep dive into Europe’s urgent military strategy.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Three years. That's how long Ukraine has been fighting off Russia's brutal invasion.
00:05But February 24th, 2025 isn't just an anniversary, it was a turning point.
00:10With US President Donald Trump back in office, the world is watching to see what happens next.
00:15Will the US continue to back Ukraine, or is Europe about to be left to stand against Russia
00:20alone? One thing's for sure, Europe isn't waiting to find out. The continent is preparing for the
00:25worst, and the message is clear. If Russia wants a fight, Europe is ready.
00:30So what's the plan? How does Europe intend to counter the Russian threat? And what happens
00:35if the US steps back? Let's start with a historic meeting in Kyiv, where Europe's
00:39leaders made one thing certain, they're not backing down. The scene in Kyiv on the
00:44third anniversary of the invasion was nothing short of electric. 13 of the most powerful
00:48Western leaders gathered in the Ukrainian capital to send a bold message. The Ukrainian
00:53President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed them with open arms. There was no sign of President Trump,
00:58but his shadow loomed large. You could feel it in the air as European leaders subtly rebuked
01:03the rhetoric coming out of Washington and doubled down on their commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty.
01:08Among the guests were heavyweights like Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
01:12and Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission. Trudeau even took a clear
01:16jab at Trump by calling Zelensky a duly elected democratic leader. He was, of course, referencing
01:21Trump's shocking truth social media post in which he labeled the Ukrainian President a
01:26dictator without elections. Despite these words, leaders from Spain, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland,
01:31all nations that know the cost of Russian aggression, stood shoulder to shoulder with
01:35Zelensky. And let's not forget about the 24 leaders who joined virtually, sending a powerful
01:40message to the world. Europe will always find a way to come together. Its unity is a force
01:44that surpasses borders, both literal and digital. But this meeting was no symbolic gesture. The
01:50West came ready to act. Zelensky's call for a strong security guarantee was met with swift
01:55action. A whopping $21 billion could be on the table for Ukraine's next aid package,
02:01a lifeline for a nation under siege. European foreign ministers meeting in Brussels just
02:05hours before were already hashing out the details. Throw a fresh round of sanctions
02:10targeting Russian energy, trade, transport, and financial services into the mix, and one thing
02:15becomes clear. Europe isn't going to let Russia operate with impunity. And this is just the
02:20beginning. On March 6th, 27 European leaders will meet again in Brussels for an emergency summit,
02:25with one focus, securing the future of Ukraine and Europe. European Council President Antonio
02:30Costa said it best, we are living in a defining moment for Ukraine and European security.
02:35For Europe, the time to act is now. With leaders from every corner of the continent coming together,
02:40Russia's playbook of aggression is facing an unbreakable front, and this time,
02:44there's no room for retreat, only forward momentum. But what exactly is Europe up against?
02:50Let's first quantify the Russian threat before diving into how Europe plans to dismantle it.
02:54Now, one look at daily reports coming from the general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces could
02:59easily have you believing that Russia was no longer a serious threat. Just take a look at
03:03the February 25th, 2025 report, detailing the losses in three years of the invasion.
03:08In three years, Russia lost 869,530 troops in Ukraine. This staggering figure includes killed,
03:16wounded, missing, and captured soldiers. If we're talking fatalities only, around 165,000
03:22Russian troops have been killed since the launch of the invasion, according to independent Russian
03:26media outlets Medusa and MediaZona. The situation with equipment losses is equally dire. Here's an
03:32overview done by the general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces. In three years, Russia reportedly
03:37lost 10,182 tanks, 21,168 armored fighting vehicles, 38,582 vehicles and fuel tanks,
03:4723,652 artillery systems, 1,299 multiple-launch rocket systems, 1,083 air defense systems,
03:58370 airplanes, 331 helicopters, 26,767 drones, 28 ships and boats, and 1 submarine.
04:09That's more firepower than some countries even have in their entire military arsenal.
04:13But these losses also make you wonder, why is Europe even afraid of Russia? The country seems
04:17to be on a downward spiral that's almost impossible to stop. Well, that's just the thing.
04:21The key word here is almost. Time and time again, Russia has shown a remarkable ability
04:26to absorb staggering losses and keep pushing forward. This is what's happening now, too.
04:31Despite all the losses, Russia isn't backing down. In fact, it's building up its forces at
04:36an alarming rate. You see, Russia invaded Ukraine with 169,000 to 190,000 troops in 2022.
04:43By the end of 2024, the Russian military presence in Ukraine ballooned to an impressive
04:48700,000 soldiers. That's roughly four times the size of the entire military force Russia had on
04:53the border before the war even began. And it's not just about troops. Russia is also ramping up
04:58its defense production like a war machine in overdrive. In 2024 alone, the country produced
05:04and refurbished 1,550 tanks, 5,700 armored vehicles, and 450 artillery pieces. That's an
05:11increase of up to 220% in tank production and 150% in armored vehicles compared to 2022.
05:17Russia is also churning out long-range loitering munitions at a staggering pace,
05:21with a 435% increase in production of Lancet drones designed to strike from over 30 miles
05:27away. These drones once relied on Iranian support. Now they're a key part of Russia's
05:32domestic arsenal, and their numbers are only growing. The same goes for the number of attacks.
05:36In May 2024 alone, Russia launched over 300 Lancet attacks, nearly doubling the previous
05:41month's total. With more troops, more advanced weaponry, and a relentless drive to recover from
05:46its losses, Russia is showing the world that its appetite for aggression is far from satisfied.
05:51It's clear that Russia's President Vladimir Putin isn't just after Ukraine. He has a thirst
05:55for dominance that won't stop until Europe is under his thumb. And this brings us to why Europe
06:00is consolidating its forces so urgently. The continent isn't just preparing to defend Ukraine,
06:05it's gearing up for a Europe versus Russia confrontation. And this confrontation isn't
06:09some hypothetical scenario. It's a very real possibility that's growing more imminent by the
06:13day. In fact, Russia could be ready to launch an all-out attack on Europe within five years,
06:18according to a report by Denmark's Defense Intelligence Service, DDIS. The report singled
06:23out the US involvement as a key factor in this timeline. If Washington goes through with pulling
06:28back its support, this will surely embolden Russia. If Russia assesses the US cannot or will
06:33not support the European NATO countries, the report warns, Russia is likely to be more willing
06:37to use military force. This means that the clock is ticking. But European leaders are already
06:42preparing for this reality. That's because assessments from NATO, Germany, Poland, Denmark,
06:47and the Baltic states all point to a similar timeline, with Russia potentially being ready
06:51to strike within three to 10 years. Though we're lucky if Russia even waits for that long.
06:56The Zapad 2025 military exercises, set to take place in Belarus, could provide an early warning
07:01of Russia's true intentions. And those intentions are looking more aggressive by the day. We'll let
07:06the facts speak for themselves. Russia and Belarus are preparing for some of the largest military
07:11exercises in years, involving around 13,000 soldiers, massive amounts of military equipment,
07:16and a clear message of readiness. Zapad 2025 will showcase Russia's ability to manage large-scale
07:22military operations, even in the midst of an ongoing conflict. It's one thing to hold an
07:27exercise during peacetime. It's another to demonstrate such capabilities while also
07:31fighting a war. This sends a strong message that Russia is gearing up for more than just
07:35regional conflicts. It's preparing for a larger confrontation. The scale of these exercises is
07:40staggering. To put it into perspective, Zapad 2021, the last major iteration, saw the deployment
07:45of over 80 aircraft and more than 760 pieces of military equipment, including more than 290 tanks
07:52and 240 artillery units. Some of these exercises were held near the Polish border, which was
07:57another clear message to NATO. While the specific equipment for Zapad 2025 hasn't been fully
08:02disclosed yet, we can expect to see a similar arsenal, including advanced systems like the S-300
08:07and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, T-72B3 tanks, and Su-30 multirole fighter jets. The truth
08:14is that these exercises could be the prelude for something far worse. Russian officials have
08:18emphasized that they are preparing for modern threats, and they've even been analyzing captured
08:22NATO equipment to identify weaknesses for future exploitation. That's a chilling sign.
08:27So what is Europe planning to do about all this? Let's break it down.
08:31First and foremost, Europe wants to continue supporting Ukraine. After all, Ukraine's
08:35experienced military is currently the most effective deterrent against a Russian attack
08:39on the European Union. The longer Ukraine holds strong, the more it buys time for Europe to
08:44fortify its defenses. That's why Europe must also be prepared to fully replace the U.S. aid if Trump
08:49does decide to pull the plug. And that's precisely what Europe plans to do- step up and pick up the
08:54slack. In reality, Europe could fully replace U.S. aid without breaking a sweat. Since the start of
08:59the war in February 2022, the U.S. has allocated or committed a total of roughly $180 billion
09:06to support Ukraine, and Europe's total allocations and commitments during the same period amount to
09:10about $150 billion. If we're just talking about donated military aid, the U.S. has provided about
09:16$66.5 billion, while European nations have contributed approximately $39 billion. To match
09:22total U.S. aid contributions, Europe would need to increase its spending by approximately 0.12%
09:28of its GDP- a very manageable amount. That's not even a blip on the radar for the EU economy.
09:33In other words, even with all the challenges that come with this, Europe has the financial means to
09:37fill the gap, especially in military spending. Sure, the real concern will be access to the U.S.
09:42military industrial base, since Europe doesn't produce the same cutting-edge technology and
09:46military equipment in the same quantities. But the funds are there. Europe's spending on military
09:51aid is already on par with U.S. support, and the EU has spent $21 billion more than the U.S. on
09:56humanitarian and financial aid combined. But what about defending the whole continent,
10:01or at least countries that Russia is more likely to attack? Well, that's where things get a bit
10:05trickier. But it's nothing Europe can't handle. When meeting Trump for a joint press conference
10:09in Washington in late February 2025, French President Emmanuel Macron made it clear that
10:14Europe was ready to step up its defenses to build a long-lasting peace. Here's how Europe
10:18plans to defend its territories from Russia. Increasing the number of troops is the first
10:23order of business. For decades after the Cold War, European militaries shrank significantly.
10:28Many countries now only possess what NATO officials call a bonsai army, an army that's
10:33too small to fundamentally protect its own country. For example, the British Army is now
10:37at its smallest size since the Battle of Waterloo. The German Army, long underfunded, is still
10:42struggling to rebuild, needing at least 40,000 more soldiers just to reach minimum readiness.
10:47But the problem doesn't lie only in numbers. Readiness must be better, too. Jim Townsend,
10:51the former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, put it bluntly,
10:55European armies are too small to handle even the arms that they've got now. Without sufficient
10:59combat troops, no amount of modern weaponry will matter. And Europe needs a force equivalent to
11:04300,000 combat-ready U.S. troops to effectively deter Russia. Those are the current estimates.
11:09That means that building around 50 new brigades of mechanized and armored forces,
11:13capable of operating in Eastern Europe's demanding battlefield conditions.
11:17Europe doesn't currently have those numbers. Even a force of 200,000 might be out of reach
11:21with current recruitment levels. So for now, Europe is aiming at a deterrent force. This
11:25force would have to be about 100,000 soldiers strong, soldiers assigned to the mission at all
11:30times, rotating in and out to maintain readiness. 100,000 is also the current number of American
11:34troops stationed in Europe, but this number is expected to fall in the coming years.
11:38This figure of 100,000 troops also matches part of NATO's rapid reinforcement strategy.
11:44The NATO force model, agreed upon in 2022, aims to make 300,000 high-readiness troops
11:49available for deployment, with 100,000 of them ready to move within 10 days. The full force,
11:54it should be deployable within 30 days. To reach this goal, the alliance is pre-positioning
11:58equipment and stockpiles, expanding air and missile defense systems, and integrating new
12:03members like Finland and Sweden into strategic planning. NATO has also been making moves to
12:08strengthen its eastern defenses, you know, the side of the alliance that borders Russia.
12:12Since 2017, multinational battlegroups have been deployed in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
12:17and Poland, with additional forces stationed in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia,
12:22after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That's effectively doubled NATO's presence
12:27on its eastern flank, with troops from multiple countries training and operating together.
12:31At the 2022 Madrid summit, NATO members committed to increasing these battlegroups from battalion
12:36size to brigade size where needed. Latvia became the first country to make this jump in 2024,
12:42and others are expected to follow. Although Europe still has a long way to go,
12:46it's more than willing to make the journey. After all, what's the alternative?
12:49Hoping Russia never decides to attack another European country? That's not a strategy. That's
12:54wishful thinking with a side of denial. So Europe is basically hoping for the best,
12:58but preparing for the worst. This also includes working on its military coordination. After all,
13:03if Europe manages to accumulate a force of 300,000, we're looking at troops coming from
13:07over 30 national armies. That's a logistical nightmare waiting to happen. It's like trying
13:12to assemble a Super Bowl-winning crew using players from 30 different teams, each with their
13:16own playbook and slightly different rules of the game. If nobody's on the same page, you don't get
13:21a team, you get chaos. That's why military coordination isn't just important, it's the
13:25difference between a functional army and a bureaucratic nightmare with guns. Right now,
13:30Europe has more than 1.4 million active duty personnel spread across different national
13:35armies. The US can almost match this number on its own, but again, it's not about the numbers,
13:39it's about how well those troops work together. If Europe wants to replace the US troops in Europe
13:44successfully, it must develop tighter command structures, improve interoperability, and ensure
13:49that when those forces deploy, they function like a single, cohesive unit, not a patchwork of
13:53different national strategies. NATO's current assumption is that the Supreme Allied Commander
13:58Europe is always a top US general, but this only works when the US is leading the charge. If Trump
14:03decides to step back, Europe has to be ready to take control of its own defense without waiting
14:08for marching orders from Washington. And that's exactly why NATO's latest military exercises
14:12are more than just a show of force, they're a test run for a future where Europe can't rely
14:17on the US as its security backstop. As steadfast DART 2025 plays out across Romania, Bulgaria,
14:23and Greece, Europe is getting a hard look at what it might mean to lead from the front. Just as US
14:28Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested, with 10,000 troops from 9 nations, live-fire drills,
14:34and cyber warfare components, NATO is trying to prove that it can rapidly deploy a large-scale
14:39force without waiting for Washington's green light. Next up, military equipment and production.
14:44Europe is gearing up for a serious transformation in this area as well. History shows that when the
14:49pressure is on, market economies can deliver. Just look at West Germany, under Chancellor
14:53Helmut Schmidt, it modernized its military in no time to counter Soviet forces. Now the challenge
14:59is even bigger, but so is the determination to meet it head on. To build a credible deterrence
15:04force capable of stopping a Russian breakthrough in the Baltics, Europe needs numbers. Big numbers.
15:09According to Bruegel, a respected European think tank, Europe needs at least 1,400 tanks,
15:152,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 700 artillery pieces for this purpose. Right now,
15:20that's more firepower than France, Germany, Italy, and the UK combined. And that's before we even get
15:25to the ammunition problem. Europe needs a minimum of 1,150,000mm shells just to sustain 90 days of
15:32high-intensity combat. Of course, it's not just about tanks and shells. Modern warfare is about
15:38speed, intelligence, and adaptability. In practice, this means scaling up drone production to match
15:43Russia, which requires at least 2,000 long-range loitering munitions per year. It means boosting
15:48aviation, transport, missile defense, and electronic warfare capabilities. Of course,
15:53buying from the US is always an option. European arms purchases helped drive US defense exports to
15:58a record $318.7 billion in 2024. That's great for NATO cohesion, but if Europe wants true strategic
16:06autonomy, it needs to start building at home. The good news is that Europe has the industrial
16:10capacity to do this. It just needs to mobilize it. Take Germany's defense company Helsing as
16:15an example. It's already mass-producing AI-enabled drones, cranking out over 1,000 HX-2 strike drones
16:22per month. With orders from Ukraine totaling 10,000 units across two models, Helsing is proving that
16:28Europe's defense industry can scale up when needed. More companies following this model
16:33could bring Europe to drone parity with Russia in record time. The final aspect Europe needs is
16:38money. We've already discussed the funds Europe is pouring into Ukraine's defense, but what about
16:42its own? Currently, European NATO countries contribute around 2% of their GDP to defense.
16:48As a reminder, this is NATO's floor, not the ceiling. For Europe to seriously bolster its
16:52defenses, experts suggest that a more sustainable target would be around 3% to 3.5% of GDP. A $262
17:00billion increase in defense spending annually is the current estimation of what Europe should aim
17:05for to fully cover its defense needs in the short term. Now, this sounds like a hefty price tag,
17:09and let's be honest, it is. However, it's also within reach. All Europe needs is a blend of
17:14national and EU-level investments. For the next five years, Europe should raise roughly $130
17:20billion at the EU level. Germany alone is projected to cover at least half of that amount,
17:24increasing its overall defense spending by 3-4 billion euros annually over the next 15 years.
17:30A bright spot in this fiscal journey is the economic potential of defense spending.
17:34Investing in defense could significantly contribute to European economic activity.
17:38Think innovation, job creation, and industrial growth. Just take the example of large-scale
17:43production orders. Buying in bulk significantly drives down unit costs. Look at Germany's recent
17:48order of 105 Leopard 2 tanks at $3.14 billion. If Europe orders the required 1,400 tanks,
17:55prices will drop as production scales up. This could save billions in the long run.
18:00Now, we keep mentioning Germany for a reason. If it plays its cards right,
18:04this country could help fortify the entire European continent. It would ensure that
18:07nations like Poland and the Baltic states, likely Putin's next targets after Ukraine,
18:12can count on reliable support against the incoming threats. But what does
18:15playing its cards right mean in this context? Well, for starters, Germany must overcome its
18:20past inefficiencies in procurement and military readiness. It must also increase its defense
18:24spending to 3.5% of GDP and ensure its defense sector is fully equipped and prepared. Of course,
18:30this won't be an overnight fix. But Germany, like the rest of Europe, is waking up to the
18:34realization that its security depends not just on pledges but on actionable investment.
18:39The days of pushing defense spending into the background are long gone.
18:43Europe is now heading straight for the crucial challenge ahead. The good news is that it has
18:47the money, industry, and motivation to also overcome that challenge, to outmatch anything
18:52Russia can throw at it, to defeat it once and for all. But when do you see this clash happening,
18:58if you see it happening in the first place? And do you think Europe will have enough time
19:01to fortify its defenses if the US exits the continent? While you're there, let us know
19:06whether all European NATO countries combined can eventually match the US's contribution
19:11and successfully stand against Russia. We're looking forward to reading your
19:15thoughts in the comments section below.