Seven new BJP ministers have been inducted into Nitish Kumar's cabinet, taking the total number of ministers to 36. This cabinet expansion aims to balance caste equations, with the new ministers representing key communities ahead of the upcoming Bihar assembly elections.
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00:00Seven new ministers from the BJP have been inducted into Nitish Kumar's government.
00:04The cabinet expansion is aimed at balancing caste equations
00:08and strengthening the BJP's influence in the state.
00:11Bihar's new ministers represent key communities including
00:14Kurmis, Rajputs and the OBCs.
00:17With this reshuffle, the Nitish Kumar government now has 36 ministers,
00:22with the BJP holding the majority.
00:30Days after a show of strength in Bhagalpur, seven new ministers,
00:39all from the BJP, have been inducted into the Nitish Kumar government in Bihar.
00:45Among those who were sworn in are Krishna Kumar Mantu from the Kurmi community,
00:49Raju Kumar Singh from Rajput community, Sanjay Saraogi from Vaishya community,
00:55Jibesh Kumar is a Bhoomiyaar, Motilal Prasad comes from Teli community,
00:59Vijay Kumar Mandal represents EBC and Dr. Sunil Kumar represents the OBC Khushwaha community.
01:24Ahead of the swearing in of the new minister,
01:50Dilip Jaiswal who served as the revenue minister in the Nitish Kumar government
01:55as well as the president of the Bihar BJP resigned.
02:01With the overhaul, the total number of ministers in the Nitish Kumar government
02:23has gone up to 36, with BJP having the lion's share of 21 ministers.
02:32The cabinet expansion with a clear eye on the polls is an attempt to cater to all communities
03:00where caste still rules.
03:30Tracking data done by Sea Voter,
03:34what the mood in Bihar at this moment seems to be.
03:38Let me introduce to you our guests for this broadcast.
03:41I'll start by introducing Yashwant Deshmukh, lead sociologist at Sea Voter.
03:45It is his team's data that will be taking you through.
03:48We also have with us on this broadcast Manisha Priyam, Bihar's foremost political analyst,
03:53understands the ins and outs of the politics of the state.
03:57We have with us from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, Guru Prakash Paswan.
04:02From the Janata Dal United, I have K.C. Tyagi.
04:05And for an opposition-leaning perspective, I have Sanjay Jha.
04:09Let me take you through the first set of questions.
04:11And this will really establish the level of satisfaction
04:15that voters have with the current Nitish Kumar government in Bihar.
04:19So, what's the most important issue for you?
04:22When this question was asked, far and away, the number one option was unemployment.
04:27Forty-five percent of the respondents saying unemployment was their biggest concern.
04:34Inflation came in at 10.5 percent.
04:38Electricity, water, roads came in at 9.9 percent.
04:42But frankly, everything else was just very small.
04:44The big number there is unemployment, with more than four out of ten respondents saying
04:50that unemployment was their number one issue.
04:53Now, that is suggestive of a high level of joblessness and just pressure and anxiety over jobs.
05:01Let's now come to the second question.
05:03This is to do with who is the preferred choice for chief minister.
05:07When this question was asked, interestingly, Tejasvi Yadav comes in at number one,
05:12with 40.6 percent of the respondents.
05:15Now, that's a very big percentage of voters choosing Tejasvi Yadav.
05:20The incumbent chief minister, Nitish Kumar, comes in at only 18.4.
05:25That's less than half of his principal challenger.
05:28Chirag Paswan is about 3.7.
05:30Samrat Choudhury, the BJP deputy chief minister in the state, is 8.2.
05:35The others are quite inconsequential, except Prashant Kishore,
05:38who comes in at 14.9, just a shade behind Nitish Kumar.
05:43Now, interesting there, Tejasvi Yadav, number one by far.
05:47And the fact that Nitish Kumar has abysmally low approval ratings,
05:52and the fact that Prashant Kishore really is the joker in the pack there.
05:57Are you angry with the state government led by the JDU-BJP, and would you like to change it?
06:0350.4 percent of the respondents say they're angry and want the government to change.
06:09Half the respondents want the government to change.
06:13Angry but don't want change is 22 percent.
06:16Not angry, don't want change.
06:18The pakka NDA supporter is about 25 percent.
06:21It basically suggests that the effects of anti-incumbency
06:25are showing up quite clearly in the polling data from Bihar.
06:30To talk about this, I want to go across first to Manisha Priya.
06:33The abysmally low popularity ratings of Nitish Kumar, in some senses,
06:39given his age, his failing health, and the sheer number of years and terms he's been in power,
06:45is quite understandable, and the fact that Tejaswi is so far ahead of the others,
06:50and that there's now Prashant Kishore as an X factor.
06:52What do you make of the first set of data I just put out, ma'am?
06:59So it's quite clear that Hon. Nitish Kumar's popularity has been on the decline,
07:06and that's been the case since his last assembly elections.
07:11Remember, he did not do as well. The strike rates were poor,
07:15and he first tried to form a government with Tejaswi there, and then switched over to the BJP
07:21side. So I think the fact that he was unpopular, the fact that he played this game of going this
07:27way and that way too many times over, has finally put to rest the fact that the chehre ki rajneeti
07:35can pull anything in favour of Nitish Kumar. I remember the slogans that would go up,
07:42phir ek baar Nitish Kumar Bihar mein bahar hai. I think that phase is clearly over. Besides,
07:49it's been on the large number support of the BJP that he's been able to keep himself merely as a
07:56chief minister. The BJP is buoyant and resurgent, especially after the Lok Sabha elections,
08:01and they feel very much that it's their time to go the full hog, and that it's the chief
08:08minister who's literally in the sunset of his very long political career.
08:13This is deeply problematic from the NDA's perspective. Nitish Kumar, who used to be
08:19Sushasan Babu, is now quite clearly a political liability. His approval ratings are abysmally low,
08:27much lower than say a Khattar or a Saini before the Haryana elections, where the BJP in fact
08:31won. So that's the interesting thing. But amongst the lowest popularity ratings one can see,
08:36would you accept that Nitish Kumar, given his advancing age and declining health,
08:41is now in fact quite a political liability? And that's a very big problem
08:46for the NDA as they build up to the polls in October-November.
09:19The BJP is the only state in the country where there is no slavery culture.
09:27Where the masses there are socially, economically and educationally empowered by the have-nots and
09:34backwards. The BJP is the only state in the country where, on the basis of caste-based
09:42discrimination, the quota of society's weaker sections has been increased from 50% to 65%.
09:50Where the Dalits, the backwards, the very backwards have been empowered.
09:56The BJP is the only state in the country, one and only one, where on 8th March,
10:02in every village in the state, the women will be the leaders of every village.
10:12So I'm not asking you for a manifesto right now. I'm taking you through the data. Your
10:17answer must be linked to the data, K. C. Tyagi ji. The fact is, Yashwant Deshmukh,
10:22that there is a high level of anti-incumbency. But K. C. Tyagi is right that Nitish Kumar is also
10:28a pill that the BJP has to swallow. They have no option. You take him out of the equation
10:33and suddenly the chances of re-election are far dimmer than they would be.
10:37How do you explain the Nitish phenomenon? He's no longer shining bright. He's no longer
10:42Sushasan Babu. But he's someone that the BJP simply cannot do without.
10:46But looking at the data, one thing is clear that the sheer weight of the anti-incumbency
11:08is speaking in volumes. But Bihar is the only state in India, Rahul,
11:13where the chemistry and arithmetic go in different directions. And we have seen this
11:19for more than one occasion in the last 10 years, particularly. And this is why the factor of Nitish
11:24Kumar, even though his own popularity has gone down big time, 10 years back, almost 40% plus
11:34people used to take his name as the preferred chief ministerial candidate. Now, it is less than
11:4020%. It is about 18% or so. So basically, that 18% also has a significant chunk of BJP voters
11:48who think that there is no other candidate from the BJP in the alliance name. If you take out the
11:53BJP support base from Nitish Kumar's own number, then it will come down into a single digit,
11:57actually. So, yeah, I mean, it's a very weird phenomenon because without Nitish Kumar,
12:03we also know the arithmetic of either of the alliance doesn't really work.
12:07So, Tyagi ji is correct as far as analysing Bihar is concerned that Nitish Kumar for all practical
12:13matters is indispensable as far as NDA is concerned. But to see a hugely popular CM,
12:19whose name in our India Today MOTN 10 years back used to come in the top five, top three
12:25chief ministers consistently. Now coming down to the bottom three, bottom five,
12:30that is quite a stark decline. That's a very important point you make. Sanjay Jha,
12:35if 41% wanted the principal challenger, 50% said they want the government to change.
12:42And about 20% were angry, but did not want the government to change. But 50% said they were angry
12:50and wanted the government to change. I would have said that the NDA has its back to the wall. And
12:55this would be a very tough election for them and that the UPA had the advantage. But given what
13:00happened in Haryana, where the Congress scored a self goal, one can't quite be sure. I mean,
13:06they'll see these numbers, they'll start working on what can be done. We've already seen
13:09more BJP blood being infused into the government in Bihar. They likely find some way and the
13:14Congress and the RJD, do they have what it takes? They came close last time. But could this,
13:20in your assessment, be yet another case of so near and yet so far? You come from Bihar,
13:25so you understand the state well, Sanjay. Yeah, I do. I do, Rahul. And I want to tell you that
13:30I couldn't agree more with you on your assessment. You know, as far as unemployment is concerned,
13:38I'm from Bihar. I studied in a couple of schools there, at least for a few years.
13:43Everyone at that point of time went out to study and get a job. And I don't think that
13:47situation has changed. You saw the drama on the streets of Patna on the BPSC exam issue.
13:54And people are the young, the demographic dividend story has been destroyed all over India.
14:00And Bihar, in particular, has paid a huge price. Now, Tyagiji is right that, you know, end of day,
14:06a lot of good work has been done by Nitishji in the past, we cannot deny. But look at the
14:10reality today, that if you look at the Niti Aayog's report, Rahul, on multidimensional poverty,
14:17fiscal health, SDGs, sustainable development goals, practically on all accounts, Bihar is not just
14:24doing well, it is at lowest at the bottom of the rung.
14:27No, but you're telling me things that people already know. The question is,
14:30can the opposition score a goal and win? Or will they score yet another self-goal?
14:35That's exactly what I'm coming to. Because see, the worry is, if you look at the RGD's
14:40vote shares, and you look at the RGD seats in the last two elections, they are almost the same,
14:4680 and 75. The BJP has gone up, the JDU has declined, which has happened. Now, here is the
14:52point that if you look at the RGD, it got around 75 out of 144. The Congress really struggled and
15:00I'm worried because the Congress even today hasn't got its act together in the state,
15:06although I think Rahul has made a couple of, you know, appearances in Bihar in the last couple of
15:11weeks. The truth is that I think Bihar is up for grabs, is ready for change. Please also don't
15:18ignore that PK Prashant, you know, people write him off, but I think Prashant brings his own heft
15:25to politics and he is trying to be the Arvind Kejriwal in the new emerging political contest
15:31in Bihar and why not? He has got every right to do it. The truth is that the Congress, if it were
15:37to get its act together, remember the CPM got around 12 seats in the last elections. So, I think
15:43the Congress has a big job in front of it because RGD and Tejasvi are extremely light. They are very
15:50popular, but getting to that halfway mark, which was not too far away in the last election can be
15:56the Herculean task to get to the last finish line. Sure, but Guru Prakash Paswan, you know, the BJP
16:03faces a catch 22 situation. Nitish Kumar is now quite clearly unpopular. The data shows that
16:09as clear as daylight. Yet, if you change him and he jumps and goes the other side,
16:15then that's the end of your election. If you keep him, you are stuck with his anti-incumbency.
16:20So, is the BJP basically getting set to do an Eknath Shinde,
16:24that you show his face now, change him after the results come out?
16:31No, Rahul, let me make this very clear that even in 2020 Vidhan Sabha election,
16:36we went to the election under the visionary leadership of Mr. Nitish Kumar and 2025 Vidhan
16:41Sabha election, it is absolutely clear that we are going in this election under the visionary
16:48leadership of Mr. Nitish Kumar. But we have to understand and I partly disagree with
16:52certain observation of this survey because recently Bihar had four by-polls and four very
16:58critical by-polls where apparently Mr. Prashant Kishore's party also contested. Four out of four
17:04were handsomely and categorically won by NDA. Go slightly back, in the Lok Sabha election,
17:1075%, 30 out of 40 MPs, Rahul, were NDA MPs. So, I think definitely we have been in power on and
17:18off for the last 20 years. There would be some stress factors, there would be some fatigue
17:22factors. But by and large, you look at any indicators and I'm sure in the next couple of
17:26months, we are going to debate and discuss about that. You look at IMR, you look at MMR, you look
17:31at the crime data, you look at the unemployment data, you look at the GST, you look at the GST.
17:34No, I'm looking at the political stock exchange data which really tells you which way the winds
17:39are blowing. KC Tyagi ji, the problem for the JDU is that could Nitish Kumar end up as the next
17:47Eknath Shinde, that they fight the election with his face and change Nitish Kumar soon after the
17:54results come out, if they are in front that is.
18:24No, but KC Tyagi ji, are we in a Joe Biden kind of denialism? The fact is, you know,
18:54I've spent a lot of time with Nitish ji, we've seen his political journey and I say this with
18:59respect, but there was a point in the American elections where it became quite apparent that
19:03Joe Biden simply wasn't up for the task. As this political campaign gets started and the heat
19:10rises, Manisha Priyam, are you concerned that Nitish Kumar's political frailties and the impact
19:16ill health has had on his physique, his mental astuteness will just become glaringly clear?
19:21It's already clear in the assembly and in his conversations, but would become even more clear
19:27as he speaks. Well, it's quite clear, you know, age is, you know, something that normalizes all
19:38of us. And I do not dispute in any way the fact that from 2005 and this is 2025 now,
19:47Nitish Kumar has been very instrumental in transforming the landscape of Bihar.
19:53But that doesn't mean that he's fit enough to lead the NDA to the hustings. He may be the
20:01face of it on the posters. Anybody has a right to live a life of dignity. He's earned all his purse
20:08as much as, you know, we like or we dislike, you know, Lalu Prasad has his place in Bihar's history.
20:15So these places are all there. These are very important leaders, Nitish Kumar, even more so,
20:20his good governance, every element I could go on. You're aware that my PhD work at the
20:24London School of Economics showcases much of what Nitish Kumar did and transformed.
20:29Now, today he leads what is known as a coalition of the EBCs, the Ati Pichadas, the Panchpurna
20:35castes, those castes rally around his name. So that name is useful to the BJP to that extent.
20:41By itself, the BJP will fight this election under his leadership, but that's largely the face,
20:47not the leadership. The strategy, the workings will all be done by the BJP,
20:52so that the BJP can recast itself as a party of the Pichada. Remember Kapuri Thakur's Bharat Ratna,
21:00this term Samrat Chaudhary as the head of the BJP there. All of this has kind of reinvented
21:07the BJP that was known as a party of the Brahmin, Baniyas, etc.
21:11Now the BJP will have Nitish Kumar on the posters. Most certainly,
21:15none of the BJP spokespersons are expected to say anything against Nitish Kumar because the party
21:22and the coalition are now clearly with the BJP. The election will be steered by the BJP.
21:27No need for an Eknath Chinde. There'll be a peaceful transfer of power to the BJP
21:32post the elections. You think that's a given that if the results are in favor of the NDA,
21:40they will appoint a BJP chief minister?
21:48I'm not the person who's sitting in the Rajbhavan or doesn't know any political
21:54panditry. Those are things I don't do. But given how things are turning out,
21:58and given how much anger there has been in the BJP at the denial of an opportunity for chief
22:03ministership, remember, politics is not played for very ethical, moral reasons. Politics requires
22:10political gains to be accorded to a political party. And that's clearly something the BJP
22:16tried in aggressive mode. It didn't do them well. They don't have Sushil Kumar Modi leading them
22:23any longer. They have other leaders who they've groomed in the meanwhile in the long innings.
22:27So this time they'll try what is known as collaborative games. Be in the coalition,
22:32but up your stakes, run the strategy. In the Lok Sabha elections also, we know Tavdeji was there.
22:39And it was quite clear that the groundwork of the BJP was extremely meticulous,
22:44something that I have not seen in the BJP in Bihar. But this time in the Lok Sabha elections,
22:50it was fascinating for me to see how much detailed they are, and how much they exist
22:54on the district and sub-district level. So these are political field notes that I do not miss sight
23:00of. When I asked the Home Minister this question at Agenda Aaj Tak, Amit Shah said there'll be no
23:03cracks in the NDA and the alliance partners will fight the election together and that there's no
23:08confusion about leadership. Listen in to Amit Shah.
23:55Let me take you through some of the other questions from the C voter PSC data.
24:10Do you think Nitish Kumar's credibility has reduced because of frequently changing alliance
24:15partners? 58% of the respondents in the survey said his credibility has come down. Only 20%
24:23said his credibility had not reduced. But 58% said his credibility had reduced a lot. Now,
24:28that is searingly damning for a leader. Now, which scheme launched by the Nitish
24:34Kumar government will attract voters in favor of the party? Now, this again is very interesting,
24:39because all the numbers are just very small. Mukhiya Mantri Udyami Yojana is 4.3,
24:45Bihar Student Credit Card Yojana is 7.7, Jeevika Yojana is 5.2, increasing reservation to 75%
24:52is 6.3. The Mukhiya Mantri Kanya Uthan Yojana comes in at top at 11.5. Now, the challenge there
25:00is that you don't have that big idea like Ladli Bhen in Madhya Pradesh, Larki Bhen in Maharashtra.
25:09They simply don't have any scheme which flies through and that KC Tyagi again is a very big
25:15problem. You don't have that one game-changing, eye-catching idea.
26:45Now, that's a good point you make. Yeah, KC Tyagi makes an important point and I want to put that
27:13question to Yashwant Deshmukh. The same anti-incumbency was visible very clearly on the
27:19surface, not even subterranean, above the surface in Haryana, the BJP won there. There was very
27:24clear anti-incumbency in the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra. They turned it around. Now,
27:28that's the challenge that your data basically suggests that the opposition has a good chance
27:34of winning, but we've seen in two recent elections where the data before the elections and on the day
27:40of counting was very different, Yashwant Deshmukh. Well, I agree with Tyagi ji and I also agree with
27:48what Manisha said, Rahul, because Manisha made a very very important point that this is now
27:54basically BJP's game in Bihar and the way the BJP has been turning around with the ground mobilization
28:01and their election machinery. Yes, the face remains of Nitish ji, but the emergence of BJP
28:09is very remarkable now in Bihar, even without the face of any other leader, you know. Yes,
28:16Samrat Chaudhary has been given a chance, but his name doesn't really come up in that big a way. I
28:21mean, so BJP without a face also is right now a very very significant part of Bihar's electoral
28:31dynamics. Okay. As far as the BJP is concerned, his party and his number, I mean, that's a 40%
28:37block where he's retaining himself, but as you mentioned about Prashant Kishore, without a party
28:43backdrop, without anything, if in the vacuum, if he is pulling a traction of 15%, then we also have
28:50to realize one thing, Rahul, there is something out there in Bihar which is also moving in a kind
28:58of a perceived vacuum, which is… And that's a big challenge for the BJP. In this re-election
29:06attempt, Mr. Paswan, the big fear is if Prashant Kishore polls at 14% and if he does get 14%
29:13odd vote share on the day of counting, you know, that could really be problematic because the
29:20BJP, the Congress, RJD have this fixed Muslim Yadav vote bank, they'll try and pull some of
29:28the other backward castes. But if Prashant Kishore takes 14% of the vote, is that really a nightmare
29:34scenario from the BJP's re-election chances perspective? Rahul, I'm not trying to demean
29:43anyone, but Plural's party was one political party that came in 2020 to Bihar. There was one
29:51candidate called Pushpam Priya, and Pushpam Priya was also portraying herself as the next
29:56potential Chief Minister of Bihar. So, I think if you look at the by-polls, the four by-polls,
30:01Mr. Prashant Kishore party did secure some level of vote percentage, but as far as the
30:05Bharatiya Janata Party is concerned, we have our own set agenda. And let me also add,
30:10Delhi election, the Haryana election and Maharashtra election have been a shot in the arm.
30:14I'm not trying to extrapolate any data from Delhi, but there are a huge number of people from Bihar
30:19who are actually voters in Delhi. And if you look at it, the Purvanchali data, maybe Yashwant
30:24ji can substantiate this observation of mine, that the Purvanchalis in Bihar, Purvanchalis
30:30based out of Delhi, they have substantially voted and supported the Bharatiya Janata Party.
30:34Again, I say this with a lot of confidence, I say this with a lot of pride as well. I'm not
30:39trying to extrapolate that data. But increasingly, the level of faith, the level of confidence
30:44of people from Bihar, of people of Bihar living outside have been in the Bharatiya Janata Party.
30:49No, but that's a good point. And I think Sanjay, that's a real challenge. That is all the narrative,
30:54the tailwind is in favour of the NDA. Given that the UPA, the Congress couldn't win in Maharashtra,
31:01it couldn't win in Haryana, it couldn't, I mean, it did nothing in Delhi. That gives,
31:07you know, Chirag Paswan, Nitish Kumar, Samrat Chaudhary confidence,
31:11that abhi jo marji data dikhalo, counting ke din toh hum hi aayenge.
31:16And Rahul, I'll tell you where the difference lies. Number one, you know, all elections are unique.
31:21Let's agree to that. Haryana is now history. Maharashtra is history. I can tell you that the,
31:28progressively, the economy has deteriorated even further. So, I expect the level of pressure on
31:34the youth or, you know, inflation and many other structural, agrarian problems have only got from
31:40bad to worse. Now, here is the truth. The truth is that in Bihar, it is the RJD which is going to do
31:46the heavy lifting, not the Congress. Now, what the India Alliance needs to do in Bihar, and I hope,
31:52I'm telling you, your numbers will today get Tejasvi Yadav to hit the road even harder from
31:58tomorrow. If it was the Congress in Bihar, the Congress would spend a week just feeling good
32:04about the fact that the India Today survey made them look like the frontrunners. And I think that
32:09is going to be a critical difference. The big X factor here is going to be, will the Congress wake
32:15up and realize that it still gets around, I don't know how much is the vote share, around 10% vote
32:21share. And if that 10% can go to even 12 or 13, it will put India Alliance on a very strong wicket
32:27in Bihar. So, as you rightly mentioned, the economy is struggling. The caste reservation
32:33that Mr. Nitish Kumar's government did, it told you that if you look at the data, Rahul, how
32:39distressing it is for Bihar, the number of post graduates is less than 2%. The number of people
32:45having cars is around less than one and a half to 2%. Bihar has a long way to go. And Nitish
32:50Ji has done a good job. You know, I'm not going to just criticize him for the sake of it. But you
32:55know, there is going to be an anti-incumbency because Bihar has done well on a very low base.
33:00It has a long, long way to go. That's true. If it is a bipolar election between the NDA and the UPA,
33:09you're looking at one kind of a result. And if there is a third front, like this Prashant
33:14Kishore starts having a real impact on seats, Yashwant Deshmukh, then it's a different kind
33:19of result. 14% is his own personal popularity rating. This is not vote share for the Jansur
33:24party. 14% is, yeah, we like this guy, we don't mind thinking about him. But given the caste
33:31hierarchies in Bihar, and that there is so much affinity for the caste that one comes from,
33:37do you think this third front that Prashant Kishore has got going,
33:41will it have any material bearing on vote share and seat share in the results?
33:47We don't know yet. I mean, traditionally speaking, 14-15% vote share looks like a
33:54smaller number, I mean, to have a tangible seat share, that is right. But let's also appreciate
34:00the fact that he is a new phenomenon, I mean, in that term, to happen in Bihar. And Bihar is almost
34:11like every leader that you talk about, the caste arithmetic goes around, you know, Tejaswi Yadav's
34:17numbers, we know where they are coming from. Nitish Kumar's number, we know where they are
34:21coming from. But something funny or odd or very different about Prashant Kishore's 15% number,
34:30that it is not really belonging to one particular caste group.
34:34Now, where is he getting it from? Where is he getting this 14% from?
34:38He is getting largely from the upper caste, OBCs a little bit and also from the minorities. So,
34:47it looks like that different groups, which are kind of antagonized or upset with their own
34:56followers are kind of concentrating or gravitating towards Prashant Kishore. So, in fact, I would
35:03like to understand, Manisha knows Bihar so much better, that we are so used to look at Bihar
35:10arithmetic from the caste lenses. This phenomena, I mean, I don't know how it is.
35:16Let Manisha ji answer that, who is Prashant Kishore likely to impact most,
35:20whatever percentage of votes, where are they most likely to come from?
35:27So, Prashant Kishore is like a new startup and he is going to, you know, the party that's going to
35:35be in decline is the JDU and the assets can be taken away by Prashant Kishore because look at
35:42the fact that Nitish Kumar has done, he doesn't attract single caste leadership. He is not a
35:48kurmi leader. He is a good governance leader. Now, I am very glad that somebody pointed this out.
35:55Remember, not all the Muslims vote for the RJD in Bihar. There is a Pasmanda Muslim Mahaz,
36:00Ali Anwar was made a member of parliament. Besides on the Yadav front, don't think it's
36:05my coalition. Remember, there is a Pappu Yadav. Remember, there is a Girdhari Yadav,
36:10who has defeated Jayaprakash Yadav, the safe seat of MAKA. The BJP also has Nityanand Rai.
36:16So, there is a dent that's likely to happen. The OBC politics is going to be a BJP versus
36:24RJD politics, but there are also going to be upper castes who are socialist in bent,
36:28affiliated to the JDU. The Muslims who may not directly go to the BJP and Prashant Kishore is
36:34right there to catch it all. It seems therefore to me that as and when the JDU goes in for some
36:41kind of a slide down, Prashant Kishore may be there to take the rumps. Remember, Prashant
36:47Kishore doesn't have the capacity to take away from the RJD. So, that tells you that he can
36:52neither take away from the RJD. He is not a rural party. So, he cannot take away from the left that
36:57does a very good display in the agrarian heartlands in central Bihar to the south of the Ganges.
37:04There, the left is very, very strong. And I don't see Prashant making a dent in either of those.
37:11So, he's a chehra, he's a face. Remember, Bihar has been ruled as much by chehra and face as it
37:17has been ruled by ground level mobilizations. So, Prashant Kishore has an importance and
37:23significance, but let's move on. I interviewed Prashant Kishore about the elections in Bihar
37:30and the buildup to this big election. I want to show you some excerpts from that interview
37:35with the man who hopes to do an Arvind Kejriwal. He's confident. You'll see his confidence
37:39in the excerpts I play out. He thinks he can do an Arvind Kejriwal. Listen to him.
38:00Arvind Kejriwal.
38:30Arvind Kejriwal.
39:00Arvind Kejriwal.
39:30Arvind Kejriwal.
40:00Arvind Kejriwal.
40:30Arvind Kejriwal.
41:00Arvind Kejriwal.
41:30Arvind Kejriwal.
42:00Arvind Kejriwal.
42:31Arvind Kejriwal.
42:33Arvind Kejriwal.
42:59Okay, that's Prashant Kishore.
43:01Sanjay Jha, do you think he can be the Kejriwal of Bihar? Is that possible?
43:05Or is Bihar just too driven by caste identity to allow for a new party to come in, make a big impact, make a material impact?
43:16Now, it's a very valid question, Rahul. I believe Bihar is so, and I come from Bihar, so I can tell you,
43:23is very deeply entrenched in caste, much more than an outsider can imagine.
43:28So probably it's changing, but I think it's going to be a long-term process.
43:33But I would also like to add that a lot of people have rubbished Prashant of late and been critical of some of the calls he took.
43:40Prashant is also a long-term player. And I think he has the patience of a guy who's probably going to grind it out.
43:47But it's not going to be like an Arvind Kejriwal, an overnight celebrity political startup.
43:52But he's, I'm sure, ready to grind it. Bihar is going to be a long haul, undoubtedly.
43:57But I do want to add one point very quickly, Rahul, that end of day, you are going to witness what happened in Maharashtra.
44:03I'm a Bihari who lives in Maharashtra. I knew exactly what is going to happen to Eknath Shinde.
44:08It's happening as we talk. There is already a lot of buzz in Mumbai that you probably are going to see a government of the BJP and Ajit Pawar there, minus Shinde.
44:19And you look at the JDU's vote shares, they're down to 15%, 43 seats, and they're on the decline. Clearly, the BJP will benefit more.
44:29I have a question which actually shows this. Do you think that in future, JDU's relevance will be non-existent in Bihar politics?
44:36And the actual contest is between RJD and the BJP. When this question was asked, 66% said yes.
44:43No was 27.5%. So, 67% of the respondents saying yes. Speaking of which, I just want to show you this report about
44:51Nitish Kumar's son, Nishant, who is now being seen in public. He has spoken multiple times to the media.
44:57And suddenly seems to be coming out of the shadows. So far, Nitish Kumar was viscerally opposed to dynasty in politics.
45:06It was one of the principal planks on which he pitched his political career. Now, suddenly, in the final days of his political innings,
45:14a son seems to be rising in the JDU.
45:17On Monday, Prime Minister Modi addressed Nitish Kumar as dear chief minister at a farmer rally in Bhagalpur.
45:43A day later, the Bihar chief minister's son, Nishant, made a pitch for his father to be projected as NDA's chief minister face again.
45:52He may be advocating for his father, but with just months to go for the Bihar Assembly elections, there is a big buzz over Nishant Kumar's political entry.
46:16A software engineer and an alumnus of the Birla Institute of Technology, MESRA, Nishant has long kept a low profile, staying away from the political events until now.
46:29On 18th January, 48-year-old Nishant accompanied his father to their hometown of Bhaktiarpur to unveil statues of freedom fighters.
46:38There too, he had asked for his father to be voted back to power.
46:45Nishant's thoughts are the thoughts of the party, and all the top NDA leaders have expressed their intention that the next election will be under the leadership of Nitish Kumar.
47:01Nitish Kumar himself has been critical of the dynastic politics, but Nishant's name has been doing the rounds with the JDU for quite some time now.
47:31RJD's Teja Suyadav has also welcomed the idea of Nishant Kumar stepping into active politics.
47:37The other India Alliance partner, the Congress, has been more critical of this political sunrise in Bihar.
48:03Could the Bihar elections see another sun enter the political battlefield?
48:24Bureau report, India Today.
48:29Okay, so the sun is rising. Yashwant Deshmukh, what do you think is going on here?
48:35It's too late for him to be turned into some kind of political successor like Stalin groomed Udayanidhi.
48:42You know, there is no real bandwidth for that. But he seems to be coming out of the shadows.
48:47What do you make of this, Yashwant?
48:50Good luck to him, Rahul. But as we all know, Bihar is not for the starters in that way.
48:57In any case, Bihar politics is way more complex and complicated than the rest of the India put together and combined together.
49:03So, I mean, it could work, it could not work as well.
49:08Manisha ji, what do you make of this, the new sun that's rising in Bihar?
49:12It's just one last attempt by the JDU to portray to people that something's on, we are right there, we are on track.
49:24And that just as the RJD is being kept on by sunrise, there will be sunrise in JDU.
49:32But I don't think that is going to work.
49:35And Tejasvi, at least to his credit, has fought elections, has done reasonably well in the last assembly elections, has served as a deputy chief minister.
49:43And, you know, to that extent, he does have a name for himself, though, if this were a program on Tejasvi, I could also critically analyze him.
49:52We'll do that.
49:53If it were a Tejasvi versus Nishant Kumar comparison, clearly, the JDU transition is not happening that way.
50:01Remember, there's also a Ramchandra Prasad and a Manish Verma in the waiting.
50:05So, which way the JDU will go is, you know, whether, more than Shinde, it's the Odisha model that worries me.
50:14You know, there could be a bureaucrat who's a Kurmi, and they could be in the waiting.
50:18So, Nishant Kumar clearly not the heir to Nitish Kumar.
50:22Nitish himself did not play a, you know, politics of family.
50:26So, I'm out of time.
50:27We'll have plenty of opportunity to talk about Bihar as we build up to the big assembly elections later in the year.
50:32There's always some election round the corner.
50:34And that's one thing I'll miss dearly.
50:36If one nation, one election ever becomes reality.
50:39So, thank you so much to all our guests for joining us.
50:42I wrap up the news track tonight.
50:44For your time and your trust, thank you very much.
50:46I look forward to seeing you at 8 p.m. tomorrow.
50:47Goodbye.
50:48Good night.