The results of pollster YouGov's latest MRP model suggest the Coalition would be likely to win about 73 seats, with a lower estimate of 65 and upper estimate of 80, if a federal election was held today. The modelling indicates Labor would hold about 66 seats in the next parliament, with a lower estimate of 59 and an upper estimate of 72.
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TVTranscript
00:00This is a big piece of research, 40,689 interviews fielded over the last few weeks by YouGov.
00:10Here are the primary vote shares those interviews have resulted in.
00:14If an election were held tomorrow, the YouGov organisation thinks Labor would win about
00:1929.1 per cent of the vote.
00:21That would be their lowest primary vote since the 1930s.
00:25The LNP would be up since the last election to 37.4 and third parties and independents
00:30would win just over a third of the vote.
00:32That would be an increase on their record share in the last election.
00:36In two-party preferred terms, it's roughly a 3.2 per cent swing toward the Coalition,
00:41the LNP sitting at about 51.1 per cent of the vote and that is roughly in line with
00:46other opinion polling that's been published recently.
00:49But YouGov have then taken those 40,000 interviews and run them through a statistical model of
00:54the 150 electorates.
00:56They're trying to work out not just these numbers but how many seats would each party
01:00win were an election to be held today.
01:02And here is their central estimate.
01:04They think if an election were held today, the Peter Dutton-led Coalition would win 73
01:09seats on average.
01:11Labor would win 66.
01:1273 is only just shy of the 76 you'd need for majority.
01:17So if those were the kinds of numbers you'd see on election day, Peter Dutton would be
01:22the firm favourite to move into the Lodge.
01:24Anthony Albanese would need to cobble together support from nearly every crossbencher in
01:29order to continue to govern.
01:31Of course, these numbers, they're just estimates and that 73 for the Coalition, that's the
01:35central estimate within a range between 65 and 80.
01:39So there is considerable uncertainty here.
01:42And what's really interesting is watching where the seats are most likely to change
01:47because the Coalition appear to be outperforming what you'd expect from a national swing
01:52of 3.2%.
01:54They're getting larger swings in seats held by the government.
01:58Here are the seats on the map that are most likely to shift according to this YouGov model.
02:03In the West, two seats.
02:04The seat of Tangny in Perth would flip back to the Coalition if these results were to
02:10play out on election day.
02:11As well as the new seat of Bullwinkle.
02:14But Labor would keep most of the seats that it gained in the West three years ago.
02:19In Melbourne, there's two seats particularly in play here in this model.
02:23Chisholm would flip to the Coalition.
02:25And the seat of McEwen would be a very close battle, but YouGov thinks the Coalition is
02:29ahead in Melbourne's North.
02:31But most of the seats flipping in this model are in New South Wales first.
02:35The seats of Eden-Monaro and Gilmore to the east of Canberra.
02:38And then in Greater Sydney, look at this.
02:40Three of the four seats in the Hunter region.
02:42The seat of Robertson and Macquarie closer to Sydney as well.
02:46It's easy to fixate on single seats in these sorts of models.
02:51But the pattern is what we should really pay the most attention to here.
02:54And the pattern is really clear.
02:56There is a lot of action happening in the outer reaches of our greater capital cities.
03:01Urban fringes and semi-rural areas.
03:05There's much less happening in the inner cities.
03:08This has been the focus of the campaigns for some time now.
03:12And we expect it to continue to be the focus as the election rapidly approaches.