U.S. Indo-Pacific Command leader Admiral Samuel Paparo is warning that China’s extensive military drills around Taiwan could be used as a "fig leaf" to conceal an attack on the country. He made the comments during a keynote speech at the Honolulu Defense Forum.
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00:00The U.S.'s top military official in the Pacific is warning that China's frequent military
00:05activity around Taiwan is making it difficult to understand how Beijing could prepare for
00:10an attack on the island.
00:12Our reporter Jaime Ocon has been following the story and joins us from our newsroom.
00:16Jaime, what is the U.S. saying?
00:20Well, the top U.S. commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Samuel Paparo, made some
00:27pretty big warnings about China's military activity around Taiwan at a forum in Hawaii.
00:33He basically said that, in a keynote speech, he said that China's extensive military drills
00:38could be used as a fig leaf or cover to conceal an actual attack on Taiwan.
00:43He added on to say that in recent years, the extensive buildup of China's military and
00:49frequent activity around Taiwan is making it more difficult to differentiate between
00:53what is an actual large-scale military drill and what could be preparations for an attack.
00:59Here is part of his speech at the Honolulu Defense Forum.
01:03The People's Republic of China has embarked on a dangerous course and are on a dangerous
01:07course.
01:09Their aggressive maneuver around Taiwan right now are not exercises, as they call them,
01:15they are rehearsals.
01:19They are rehearsals for the forced unification of Taiwan to the mainland.
01:27Beijing's military buildup, their gray zone operations, their military coercion against
01:35Taiwan grow more concerning every day.
01:40We reached out to Taiwan's defense ministry in the morning for a comment, but they have
01:44yet to respond.
01:45But Taiwan's military did say something similar back in December of 2024, when China launched
01:50what many people thought was the third large-scale exercise of 2024.
01:55Back then, Beijing deployed its largest naval fleet in over three decades, sparking some
02:00concern because Beijing didn't announce that it would be doing this kind of activity.
02:05So now the United States and Taiwan seem to be on the same page in agreeing that it is
02:09getting much more difficult to kind of figure out what China's military is up to.
02:15And in your talks with the military, is Taiwan doing anything to respond to these threats?
02:21Yeah, well right now Taiwan's defense ministry is actually going in the process of making
02:27some pretty radical changes to its largest annual drill known as the Hanguang exercises.
02:32So for five days, Taiwan simulates how it would respond to an all-out attack from China.
02:39So the entire country and the military mobilize and they test various parts of Taiwan's overall strategy.
02:46But sources within the military are now telling me that Taiwan is looking to double the duration
02:51of that exercise and extend it now to 10 days.
02:54But some observers in the United States are concerned about how realistic and how scripted
02:59these exercises could still be.
03:01Earlier I spoke to Mike Hunziker, he's an associate professor at George Mason University,
03:05and I started with asking him how big of a change will this extension and duration be?
03:11My sense is that on the margins, it is a good change.
03:15More is better when it comes to training.
03:17I think there are some downsides.
03:19But to take a quick step back, one of my biggest concerns is, simply put, the new administration
03:24in Washington is calling for a radical increase in investment in Taiwan's defense.
03:28In essence saying, we want you to double the amount of money you're spending on defense.
03:33And Taiwan's MND is saying, hold that thought, maybe we'll double the number of training
03:37days for one exercise.
03:39And that's going to be a real problem in the signal that it sends about Taiwan and the MND's seriousness.
03:44But to the practical question of whether this is good or bad, the fact is, more training
03:49is probably better.
03:51But if some fundamental changes haven't been made in command and control practices, in
03:57organizational culture, and in small unit training, then really what you're doing is
04:02doubling the amount of time that you're rehearsing bad habits and reinforcing those bad habits.
04:07And so in that respect, more actually might be a bit of a detriment.
04:11Other than extending the duration of the exercises, what else would you want to see from these drills?
04:17Whether Hong Kong Remain is a five-day exercise or a 10-day exercise, what I would like to
04:21see is not so much change in that particular evolution, but rather a lot more emphasis
04:27on small unit training and making sure the small unit training is not highly scripted,
04:33that leaders in the small unit training that maybe the media is not paying attention to
04:36really do have the freedom to make mistakes, because if you're not making mistakes, you're
04:40not practicing for realistic warfare.
04:42All that said, the one thing I would like to see certainly in any of these exercises
04:46is a genuine commitment to not being scripted.
04:51What I think we're probably going to see is a very scripted version of unscripted training,
04:55where units know in advance what the unscripted piece of it's going to be.
04:58They're going to really rehearse because nobody wants to be that unit or that commander that
05:01makes a mistake while the media is watching.
05:05The official date for this year's Hong Kong exercises is yet to be public, but these drills
05:10usually happen at the end of July, so still plenty of time to see if there's any other
05:14reforms or plans that start to take shape as Taiwan continues to fine-tune its defense
05:18strategy against this increasing threat from China.