CGTN Europe spoke to Kaveh Guilanpour, Vice President for International Strategies at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.
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00:00Well, let's talk to Kaveh Gilanpour, who's Vice President for International Strategies at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.
00:06Good to see you. Welcome to the program.
00:08So, almost all of the world, 95% of the countries who've signed up didn't meet this deadline.
00:14Why are they doing so badly?
00:18Well, you're right. Most countries haven't come forward.
00:20It's actually just slightly over 10 that made the deadline yesterday.
00:24Most countries are citing the fact that they would like more time in order to develop the domestic policies necessary to come forward with ambitious targets.
00:35And actually, the UN's climate chief, Simon Steele, is on record as saying it's better to come forward after the deadline with something more ambitious, if that's possible.
00:45But at the same time, it's disappointing because we've known of this deadline for around about 10 years, since we agreed the Paris Agreement in Paris in 2015.
00:55And only two of the G20 so far have stepped forward.
00:59So that's definitely disappointing.
01:01So what about these few countries who have submitted?
01:04Are the goals that they've actually set going to make any difference to global targets?
01:10Well, the collective emissions represented by the countries that have come forward are minuscule.
01:16But every country counts and matters in those terms.
01:20And certainly the emissions of the United Kingdom and Brazil, amongst those that have come forward.
01:25Brazil, of course, will host COP30 later this year.
01:28So it's important that Brazil has shown that leadership by coming forward.
01:33And the presidency of COP28, the United Arab Emirates, similarly have come forward with a new target.
01:39So while collectively they don't amount to much yet, the UK's target has been widely praised as being ambitious and in line with the 1.5 limit of Paris.
01:49So in that sense, it does matter.
01:52So for those countries who haven't met this deadline, is there enough accountability, do you think, enough sanction, any comeback for actually not meeting the deadline?
02:02Well, technically, those countries that have now not come forward, which is somewhere around 180 countries, are in breach of the obligations under the Paris Agreement.
02:12So probably they will be receiving a notification to that effect.
02:16But the Paris Agreement was designed specifically to essentially rely on peer pressure.
02:22So every five years, countries come together.
02:25They have a global stocktake, which we had in Dubai two years ago.
02:28They come forward with new NDCs and then they report on their emissions.
02:32And those first emissions reporting requirements were at the end of 2024.
02:38And the major economies, including China, did come forward with those reports, as far as I understand.
02:43And what we are essentially in is a system of peer pressure and political shaming if countries don't come forward.
02:52So the real big deadline will be COP30 at the end of this year.
02:57But also the UN Secretary General is widely expected to host countries to have a meeting about the nationally determined contributions,
03:05the climate targets of countries in the margins of the UN General Assembly in September, although that's yet to be announced.
03:12Carvey, good to talk to you.
03:13Thank you for joining us.
03:14That's Carvey Guillen-Poore from the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.