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00:00Hello, and welcome to Outlook Talks.
00:02This is to analyze.
00:03I'm Satish Padmanabhan.
00:04And we are here to analyze the Delhi election results.
00:07We have with us Ajay Gudavarti, associate professor JNU,
00:11political theorist and analyst.
00:13Thank you very much, Ajayji, for joining in with the discussion.
00:16Of course, you've been writing for Outlook quite often
00:19and analyzing the Indian political terrain quite
00:24in detail for us.
00:25So it will be an interesting discussion.
00:26I thought we could have it now because it
00:29seems to have settled down the number of seats more or less.
00:32It does seem like the final citadel
00:35that the BJP could not conquer so far has also fallen.
00:40After 27 years, I think we are going
00:43to see a BJP chief minister in Delhi.
00:46So what do you make of this, Ajayji?
00:49I mean, that's quite coming.
00:51One should now congratulate the exit poll guys
00:55that they've got it for a change, right?
00:58Unlike many exit polls have conducted,
01:01this, I think, they got it very close.
01:03Most of them predicted between 45, 50 seats for BJP.
01:07So I think one should congratulate them
01:09for getting it right.
01:11So as far as the election results, Satish,
01:14I think BJP is fighting a multipronged battle
01:17in terms of money, in terms of candidates,
01:20in terms of multiple things, policies, welfarism.
01:26So I think this is an electoral machine that
01:29is a force to reckon with.
01:31And no single party is able to really counter
01:35the force with which BJP can micromanage.
01:39And whenever parties are coming together,
01:42obviously, BJP is going overboard
01:44by breaking parties and doing other kinds of things.
01:48We saw recent allegations with regard to Maharashtra elections.
01:52But I think there are a few interesting questions
01:55that one can pose in the immediate aftermath as
01:58to what are the new trends that are really
02:01emerging in Indian politics.
02:03The big picture of it, not going into the constituency-wise
02:06kind of analysis, but the big picture of it.
02:09I think BJP posed a challenge before Delhi electorates.
02:14Aam Aadmi Party virtually was not
02:16able to work for the last three or four years.
02:18One, they were busy fighting their court cases,
02:21corruption charges.
02:22They were in and out of prisons.
02:24All the important leaders.
02:26Second, I think, BJP, therefore, I
02:28think, has posed this challenge that if Aam Aadmi Party is not
02:35to be allowed to go about doing its work through LG,
02:40then what is the thing that a Delhi electorate should look up
02:43to if Aam Aadmi Party was to come back to power again?
02:47Because to the average voter in Delhi,
02:50it looked like this trend will continue.
02:52Even if what BJP is doing is unconstitutional
02:56and outside the box and maybe not ethically agreeable,
03:02but still, in terms of practical governance issues related
03:06to water, electricity, roads, infrastructure,
03:10if BJP is to continue to block Aam Aadmi Party from working,
03:15then there is virtually nothing for the electorate
03:17to look forward to in terms of voting back the AAP.
03:20But Ajay, the two points, the two main points
03:23that you just mentioned, one, this multi-pronged machinery
03:27of the BJP, the money power, the rest of it.
03:31See, and also this complaint of AAP
03:34that they have not been able to do their work with the LG
03:39sitting on top of them.
03:41These two conditions were there five years ago, too.
03:47BJP had the same machinery.
03:49It had the same money power.
03:50It had the same institutions, et cetera, helping it.
03:53And yet, from 68 to fall so dramatically for AAP,
03:59is it also a reflection of maybe the promises
04:04that they made to the people and the expectation
04:07they raised of the electorate and simply not
04:10being able to deliver?
04:12In my own understanding, there was no palpable anger
04:17against AAP.
04:19And it also did not look like the corruption charges
04:22against Mr. Kejriwal really stuck.
04:25So I mean, we have to really struggle to explain
04:29this kind of a tsunami, one thing.
04:31Two, if you see the results declared,
04:33the voting margin of victory is very, very limited.
04:36Kejriwal lost by 600 votes.
04:38Manish D'Souza lost by 300 votes.
04:41So these are very, very thin margins,
04:43which will not give you a picture of that big picture
04:46that it's a big slide for AAP.
04:50That means AAP, in spite of running for the third term,
04:53is able to hold on to its vote share.
04:56And of course, Congress cut into its vote share by 7%.
05:00Then Muslim votes, obviously, is a third major factor
05:04that Muslims have been unhappy with AAP because
05:06of its soft Hindu card that they played,
05:09did not take a position on CAA.
05:11And therefore, BJP also, I think,
05:13added further because AIM also cut into Muslim votes.
05:17So these are the big things.
05:19If you go into the details of it,
05:21I think the picture will be very different.
05:23It wouldn't look like AAP has suddenly collapsed.
05:26But there are very specific electoral reasons.
05:29Yeah, because the margins in so many seats have been so thin,
05:33the vote share itself may not be that.
05:36I mean, the fall may not be in the end
05:39when we know all the results.
05:40On this point, the other question, of course,
05:42it's easy to do this analysis post-facto,
05:47I mean, after the events are over.
05:49But do you think the margins being so small
05:52in so many constituencies, and if we
05:55assume that mostly it is the Congress which
05:58cut into the AAP votes, as in the Congress and the AAP
06:02electorates being somewhat similar
06:04and the BJP voter being a little different,
06:08do you think a tie-up, an alliance within the India
06:13bloc that there was talk of initially
06:15and apparently couldn't materialize because, well,
06:19many reasons, a little bit arrogance on both sides
06:22perhaps, do you think an alliance between the Congress
06:26and the AAP in Delhi would have shown different results?
06:31I mean, looking at the margins, one
06:34would be tempted to jump to that conclusion
06:36that an alliance would have immediately
06:38made a big difference.
06:39As in Haryana, AAP got 2%.
06:42That 2%, if it had added to Congress,
06:45then Congress would have won.
06:46But obviously, the vote share kind of
06:48shifts across constituencies, so we really
06:52do not know if a simple alliance would have also
06:55given AAP that edge that they needed.
06:59Maybe some of these very thin margin constituencies,
07:02it would have made a difference.
07:04But overall, whether it would have really impacted
07:07the result, if there is a big time shift, I think one thing,
07:10I think middle class has shifted their allegiance in a big way.
07:15So BJP got consolidated in the entire West Delhi,
07:19if you look at, I think that's one big.
07:22But again, it's an interesting question
07:24that why did BJP, why did the middle class shift?
07:27The quick answer is the freebie culture of AAP Madhya
07:31Party was not acceptable to middle class.
07:34But on the other hand, BJP is also
07:36distributing welfare policies.
07:37It is doing very similar kind of,
07:39it's only that when others do, they call it
07:41revenue and freebie.
07:42When they do it, they call it welfare.
07:45Again, this I would say is the second important question
07:48as to why the electorate is tempted to think
07:51along the narrative BJP sets.
07:54They're not able to really pierce through
07:56this kind of a very inconsistent kind of a position
07:59BJP takes, that opposition does the revenue
08:02and we do welfare.
08:04Doesn't really make any clear sense,
08:06but the electorate for the moment,
08:08at least the middle class in Delhi seems to go along.
08:11In fact, the third, the better takeaway
08:15from the election, from this Delhi election
08:17is BJP did not win on a communal car.
08:20The earlier round of assembly election,
08:22they went ahead with Shaheen Bagh, CA,
08:26Mr. Amit Shah came and said that.
08:28Yes, there was hardly any mention of any.
08:32This time, I think one big shift is that there is no
08:36that Hindu Muslim card.
08:37It is being played, that's one good thing for democracy.
08:41In general, it's good because it is being played
08:43on issues of governance and social welfare.
08:45You can get into other issues of LG's role, other things.
08:48But by and large, I think it's a good thing
08:51that Delhi electorate voted on the issue
08:54of better governance rather than a Hindu chauvinistic
08:57kind of a vote.
08:58I mean, that might be an under terrain among middle class
09:01or certain core sections of BJP.
09:03Yes, but at least the rhetoric was not so shrill about.
09:06I think the rhetoric is also.
09:08I think also a big difference is in terms of campaign side.
09:12I think BJP and RSS alone have the wherewithal
09:16and the organizational have to make
09:18a very personalized campaign.
09:20The fund, the sources that I know that BJP
09:23has been campaigning through RWS in Delhi college.
09:27And this kind of a very personalized campaign,
09:30it also came out through my visits to Haryana
09:34that RSS does door to door campaign.
09:37And that kind of an organizational heft
09:40no other political party has.
09:42And RSS has been holding these 20, 30 people
09:46sort of meetings at evenings and yes,
09:49that they always, that they do, yeah.
09:51Yeah, so that I think that personalized campaign
09:54I think makes a big difference in terms of responsiveness.
09:57You feel the government will be more accountable
10:00whether they will be or not.
10:01But in our kind of a cultural milieu,
10:04I think this kind of a very personalized,
10:06family based, door to door, household based campaign,
10:11I think is making a big, big difference.
10:13This is my understanding of Haryana also
10:16that I think the door to door campaign make a difference.
10:18When generally the trust levels,
10:21the political system are coming down
10:23and there is a latent anger
10:24because of the economic distress.
10:26I think this personalized campaign,
10:28so BJP is able to do both.
10:30It is responsible for growing economic distress,
10:33but it is compensating
10:34through a very personalized approach,
10:36promising very personalized things.
10:39So I think this is a fourth factor
10:41which is also working in BJP's favor.
10:43You know, Ajay, on the, what you just said about,
10:46you know, the middle class seems to have shifted now,
10:49you know, to the BJP,
10:51you know, what does it mean to this,
10:54as AAP kept saying,
10:56you know, Kejriwal is an idea,
10:57you know, this idea of a young party,
11:01of, you know, educated politicians,
11:03educated people who can enter politics,
11:05who are professionals actually,
11:07you know, a different kind of politics,
11:09a different kind of politician,
11:11not the, you know, the traditional politics
11:15as we have known it.
11:16So, you know, this whole idea of AAP really,
11:19and also the various leaders that it threw up,
11:22you know, they were mostly people,
11:24many of them were really people like you and me,
11:26you know, professionals from various fields,
11:29and that there was this thing
11:30when this happened about 10 years ago,
11:32that, you know, maybe social activists,
11:36civil workers, et cetera,
11:39also can have a say in the political system,
11:43you know, that they can actually be elected,
11:46they can actually go out to seek votes and be elected.
11:51That idea, you know, with this result now,
11:55and, you know, this is another,
11:56this is an idea which they were planning
11:58to take to other states too.
12:00You know, from this traditional setup,
12:01now we are just refreshing a new kind of party.
12:05Now, with this result,
12:06how much of a dent do you think that idea has taken?
12:11Yeah, I think, I mean, that's an interesting part
12:13of this electoral, you know, dynamics
12:16that what is shifting in Indian politics.
12:17I think one, BJP has also managed
12:21to introduce a lot of speed,
12:22the quick change, you know,
12:23people are expecting quick change
12:25because the way BJP has been changing its narratives,
12:28campaigns, policy frames, promises,
12:31I think there is an alacrity and speed
12:33with which BJP works.
12:35So that old imagery came out through in, you know, 2014,
12:39you know, after, you know, the campaign
12:41by Mr. Anna Azare, anti-corruption,
12:44middle-class professionals coming,
12:46I think that has become very jaded.
12:48That's a pretty old thing
12:49because people have seen 10 years of AAP government.
12:52It has not made any decisive change.
12:54Of course, it brought in issues of education and health,
12:57which is a good part of the AAP's governance,
12:59AAP's style of functioning.
13:01But in terms of policy frame,
13:04there is no dramatic new imagination that is really coming.
13:08And that, as we have also had occasion to argue before,
13:11Satish, that neoliberal reforms
13:14have flattened out economic policies of all political parties.
13:17There's hardly anything you can distinguish
13:20between Congress, including left parties,
13:23on social policy frame,
13:25I think they're all on the same page.
13:27You know, all giving doles and giving, you know,
13:30direct transfers, women, ladli, behel.
13:33But actually, if you compare the manifestos of, you know,
13:36from extreme right to, you know, left,
13:39to center of left to left,
13:41I mean, there is really hardly, you know,
13:42between Pinarayi Vijayan's, you know,
13:45manifesto and BGP's or Mamata's, for instance,
13:48Mamata Banerjee's is really,
13:49I mean, it's mostly the same things.
13:51It's, yeah.
13:52Exactly.
13:53So I think that's a big, you know, take away that,
13:55you know, this AAP, Aam Aadmi Party experiment
13:59also has made literally no difference in terms of policy,
14:02except this Mahalla Clinic and school education
14:05were two very fresh things that they did.
14:08They gave water, you know,
14:10Delhi being a migrant city, you know,
14:13people waiting for tankers,
14:14but, you know, they gave tap water.
14:16But again, you should see that BJP has its, you know,
14:20pulse, you know, it understands the pulse
14:22and where it could make out,
14:23because water and free electricity were two things
14:26that were at the core of Aam Aadmi Party.
14:29This time there was heavy disruption in water supply.
14:31One does not know why it has happened.
14:33Even during Diwali, there was a disrupted water supply.
14:36So this became a big issue.
14:38These are very big issues
14:39because this was the main stay of Aam Aadmi Party.
14:42The water supply, Mahalla Clinic, corruption,
14:46and all three issues,
14:48BJP managed to make some kind of a dent
14:51in Aam Aadmi Party's image,
14:53that on corruption front,
14:54most of their leaders were found wanting.
14:56On water front, the water disruptions happened.
15:00No big infrastructural development happened
15:02under Aam Aadmi, unlike Congress, you know,
15:04which Sheela Dixit had all this metro
15:06and flyovers being made.
15:08You don't see that kind of infrastructural development.
15:11So then what is that Delhi electorate
15:13would have really, you know, stood out,
15:15except that there is a steep welfarist promise
15:20in Mr. Kejriwal.
15:22His rhetoric is pro-poor.
15:24That is a mainstay, which I think helped him retain,
15:27even for the third time, retain his vote share.
15:30But that thin edge that he really needed,
15:33coming back for the third time,
15:35I think that is where BJP managed to dent their image
15:38and that kind of cause of this damage.
15:41One, I think we are kind of running out of time.
15:43One last thing to discuss before we close, I thought,
15:48you know, since we both live in Delhi mostly
15:51and work out of Delhi and we've been reading,
15:53you know, the reports of, you know,
15:55the politics happening within the AAP.
15:58Do you think, you know, this thing that it is a young party,
16:01that it is a new way of doing business in politics, et cetera,
16:06has also worked against it in some ways that, you know,
16:09they couldn't handle power in, you know,
16:12in a, you know, they couldn't see the big picture there.
16:16Maybe when they won Punjab, you know,
16:18they thought that, you know,
16:19now they're going to rage through the rest of the country.
16:22And, you know, do you think something like that
16:25went into the leadership's minds and, you know,
16:28as site of a sort of arrogance and a bit of, you know,
16:32a dictatorial trend within the party, you know,
16:35being not so democratic, not listening to, you know,
16:40people either from the party or others, you know,
16:43not being receptive to any kind of criticism, you know?
16:48Is this, I mean, are these, I mean,
16:49of course these are things being discussed,
16:51as you know, elsewhere too,
16:52but is this also a lesson for-
16:55I mean, that is, you know, I mean,
16:57that I think is literally,
16:59that's a non-issue in Indian election
17:01because every political party has a dictator,
17:04whether it's Mahmood Aab-e-Energy,
17:06whether it's Mr. Akhilesh,
17:07whether it is Mr. Kejriwal,
17:08it's all single man-
17:09Nothing much to choose.
17:11So there is nothing, no, I don't think that in itself.
17:13But what is very interesting within this is that
17:16Kejriwal's resignation also did not really
17:19draw people's attention.
17:20The fact that he willingly gave up,
17:22though none of the charges were,
17:25no, he was not really convicted of anything,
17:27but even on the basis of charges,
17:30the fact that he was willing to resign.
17:32No, but one of the things that Aab was,
17:34you know, why it was different was to be this, right?
17:37That this is not like a Jayalalithaa's party
17:40or it is not like a Mulaham Singh's party.
17:43It is like your party,
17:45it's an Aam Aadmi party,
17:46and we are like you.
17:47So, I mean, that was also the differentiating aspect
17:50about 10 years ago.
17:52I mean-
17:53That's precisely what I'm saying.
17:54So therefore, even that aspect,
17:56if you remember even Kejriwal's first resignation,
18:00people did not really consent to that resignation.
18:03People thought that he was running away from responsibility.
18:06So it's very interesting how electorate is responding
18:09that he needs to prove his honesty
18:11if Kejriwal is ready to give up power
18:13to order to show that he's not here for power,
18:15but for service.
18:17That is also not cutting ice with the voters.
18:19I mean, people are not thinking that here is a person
18:21who gave up his post,
18:23no, compared to let's say Mr. Modi or Mr. Yogi,
18:26Adityanath, who do not resign against any allegation.
18:29So you had a new model here,
18:31someone who's willing to give up his power.
18:32Remember, somebody who's willing to give that responsibility
18:35to a younger colleague,
18:37but that is also not convincing the people.
18:38So these are intriguing trends in Indian politics
18:42that people don't respond to corruption.
18:45People don't respond even to those steps
18:47taken against corruption.
18:49So by and large, therefore,
18:50you see that there is a systemic distrust
18:53on political leadership.
18:55And I think BJP, for some reason,
18:58which we'll have to, at some point, analyze
19:00that why is that BJP is a default beneficiary
19:04of this kind of a systemic distrust.
19:07Now, therefore, any of the issues,
19:08you know, in Maharashtra,
19:10Ajit Pawar has big-time allegations,
19:12but moves to BJP, it seems to make no difference.
19:15So I think, therefore, corruption is not a big issue,
19:17even though Modi, Mr. BJP was after Kejriwal
19:21to dent that image,
19:22is corruption really a big-time issue
19:25which moves electorates?
19:27It doesn't look so.
19:27It doesn't seem so, yeah.
19:28So, therefore, I think we are literally having
19:31election after election on issue-less,
19:34waveless, listless, lackluster elections
19:38with no big ticket for no questions.
19:41And therefore, the way electorate is responding
19:43seems to be very contextual,
19:45and that is where BJP's organization F is working.
19:48So the only alternative, to conclude,
19:50for opposition parties really is to come together
19:55and have a decisively alternative narrative.
19:59Something, some big-ticket promises they'll have to make
20:04and deliver in places where they're already in power.
20:07Only if they do that,
20:08then that seems to be the only way out
20:10of breaking through this big-time logjam
20:14of we have entered, we have a single-party dominance
20:17that we're witnessing in Indian politics for last 10 years.
20:20And, you know, what happens to Delhi next?
20:22You know, it has always punched much above its weight.
20:25I mean, it's a very small state.
20:27It's not even really a fully a state.
20:29I mean, it's a very, but it's always been, you know,
20:33very, very important for political parties
20:36to hold power here.
20:37And BJP has been, I think, sore for a long time
20:40for not getting Delhi in its, you know,
20:43in its pocket in that sense.
20:45So what happens here?
20:46They'll have to now really sort of move
20:49and show some, you know, real change.
20:53I mean, they'll have to show some very tangible,
20:56you know, changes quickly.
20:59One thing is for sure,
21:01no political party will able to bring
21:03any dramatic change in any place.
21:05As long as you have this kind of a notion
21:08of privatizing social wealth,
21:11if you have complete kind of corporatization
21:13that we are running,
21:15what is the big change that BJP can bring?
21:17I don't think there will be anything,
21:19except for optics on the ground,
21:22will they be able to bring a better standard
21:23of living for people?
21:25Will they be able to allot greater budget
21:27to health and education?
21:28Will they be able to bring new employment?
21:31And the answer is very, very clear to me, none.
21:34It will make absolutely no difference on the ground
21:37as far as, you know, governance,
21:39as far as the direction of welfare policies concerned.
21:42I mean, you can tinker, you can do,
21:44bring in one more populist policy,
21:46but to make that kind of a substantive change.
21:49And therefore, what we're witnessing in Indian politics,
21:52is that party after party is taking up,
21:54you know, hiking up people's aspirations
21:57and delivering it,
21:58much undervalued deliverance is happening.
22:01And this is true across political parties.
22:03This is a reality we are stuck with,
22:05unless political party comes and, you know,
22:09changes the direction of development
22:11and social policy itself,
22:12and says that we will invest more budget.
22:14The Congress is making such huge hue and cry
22:17about caste census and all of that.
22:19But a simple question,
22:20is Congress ready to commit,
22:22if it comes to power whenever,
22:23in center, let's suppose hypothetically,
22:2610% of the budget to health,
22:2815% budget to education.
22:30I mean, that's the kind of shift you need in social policy
22:33for it to touch common man's lives
22:36in a substantive and meaningful way.
22:38And I don't see any political party,
22:40including left parties, making any of those.
22:42It's only this rhetorical optics.
22:44As long as you do this,
22:46electorate as, you know,
22:47somebody would say that, you know,
22:49Kejriwal and Aam Aadmi were talking about Aam Aadmi,
22:53and today they have become Aam Aadmi.
22:55People will punish these political leaders,
22:58because that's a cycle.
23:00And it's also a point we should make
23:02that BJP is also not above this.
23:06People at some point will punish,
23:07and 2040, 24 was, you know,
23:10one such response that electorate had,
23:12that no political party is above,
23:14except that BJP is ahead in terms of its electoral heft
23:17and organizational heft.
23:19Electoral machinery is much better organized,
23:21but it does not show BJP is enjoying a social hegemony.
23:25It does not show its leaders
23:27have that kind of popularity that they enjoy.
23:29Even you can see Mr. Modi's graph
23:32in terms of his charisma and leadership and persona
23:34has taken a steep slide.
23:37So that's the good part of Indian democracy.
23:39It is kicking.
23:40It is keeping its political class alive,
23:43keeping them on their toes.
23:45And the political leaders are refusing
23:47to reinvent social policy.
23:50Thank you very much, Ajay.
23:51It's always a pleasure to talk to you.
23:53It is a very interesting discussion.
23:54Thank you very much for joining Outlook Talks.