The Victorian premier is promising to do more for working class families. After her government suffered major swings against it in a heartland western suburb. Werribee is too close to call, but Labor has taken a major hit to its primary vote. Elsewhere, the liberals won Prahran off the greens in a by-election Labor didn't contest.
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00:00This is a seat, Werribee, that Labor has held since 1979. It started this by-election with
00:08an 11% buffer, but its primary vote has collapsed from 45% down to below 30%. Now, this is a
00:14heartland, but it's not beating true. This is a real problem for the government, because
00:18there are dozens of seats like this across the place, across Melbourne, that Labor could
00:23be at risk of losing if this is replicated. Now, this is a by-election, and it's been
00:27contested heavily on. The local voters were saying there's issues of neglect. Labor has
00:31taken the area for granted for too long. There's also perceptions about crime. The Premier's
00:36been under heat for some time. This is how she's responded to that result.
00:41By-elections are an opportunity for communities to send a message and to make sure their voice
00:46is being heard. And I have been listening to the messages that Victorians have been
00:50giving me since I had the privilege of becoming Premier. And what comes with the privilege
00:56of being in a Labor government is the opportunity to support what you're being told by working
01:03people and families. It's why we've rolled out the school-saving bonus. It's why we've
01:07announced the Fairfield Plan, and it's why we know that there is more to do.
01:13And how about Paran? It's a pretty major upset for the Greens, isn't it?
01:16Yeah, Paran's quite significant. Now, the Labor Party didn't contest Paran. This was
01:21caused by a former Greens MP quitting the Parliament amid a scandal where he admitted
01:26to having an affair with a staff member, and also allegations that he tried to kiss
01:29an intern. Now, Paran was normally a really interesting seat. It's normally a three-way
01:33race between Labor, Liberals and the Greens. Labor didn't run, which has really given the
01:39Liberals a better chance of winning it. And the Liberals have been on the nose in Victoria
01:43for a long time. They haven't been able to make any headway. They've been belted the
01:46last two state elections. So for them to pick up Paran is quite significant. And to do so
01:50against the Greens is even more significant. Paran takes in parts of McNamara, the federal
01:55seat. It'll be taking parts of Kooyong now, because it was in Higgins, and that's now
01:58been abolished. So some significant victory for the Liberal Party. It gives them a chance
02:03to build momentum. And if they can somehow manage to win the seat of Werribee, which
02:08would be a phenomenal result for them, it will build their momentum to see maybe they
02:11perhaps can win the next state election. It just puts more pressure on the Labor government,
02:16who have been ascendant here for so long, to really try and address some of those issues,
02:20as the Premier tried to say earlier.
02:22Now Richard, these by-election results in Victoria, do they have any implications for
02:27the federal election, which is probably a few months away?
02:29Yeah, look, I think the main one people will be watching for is what happened in Werribee.
02:34As I said earlier, this is a heartland seat. This is what is considered safe Labor territory.
02:38It's out of suburban. It's established. It's working class. But it's also huge pockets
02:43of growth. It's in Windham, the city of Windham, which is one of the fastest growing local
02:47government areas in the country. And there's been a whole problem with infrastructure not
02:51keeping up with this population growth. Now, these are the sort of out of suburban seats
02:55considered Labor safe, were considered Labor safe, that the Liberal Party under Peter Dutton
02:59and the state leader here, Brad Batten, have been targeting. They think this is the area
03:03they can make up some ground. And there has been a general sort of slow decline of Labor's
03:07vote in these out of suburban seats. So there'll be some lessons. Look, obviously, state issues
03:12are state issues. But, you know, the federal election is around the corner. And these are
03:16sort of areas that the Liberal Party will be trying to make inroads in. And given that
03:21the Victorian government has quite obvious problems with voters at the moment, that what's
03:25happened in Werribee is sort of replicated in statewide polling that's been published.
03:30This will be areas that the Liberal Party will be targeting quite hard, sort of out
03:33of suburban areas. And there is some federal Labor people who are fearful that the Victorian
03:39Labor state government's performance will bring them down. So people will be watching
03:42Werribee and probably saying, this can be done. This isn't just, you know, write it
03:47off as just Labor territory anymore. So certainly some lessons, particularly in Werribee. Not
03:51so much, I don't think, in Paran, but Werribee, certainly one to watch, David.