Pankaj Mishra and Keshav Karna from OneIndia analyze Delhi's 2025 exit poll numbers. BJP appears to surge ahead with 42-50 seats, while AAP is projected at 21-29 seats. Congress continues to struggle, predicted with 0-1 seats. What do these numbers signal for Delhi's political future? Watch the detailed analysis.
#DelhiElections #ExitPoll2025 #BJP #AAP #ElectionAnalysis #OneIndia #PollOfPolls #DelhiPolitics #Oneindia
#DelhiElections #ExitPoll2025 #BJP #AAP #ElectionAnalysis #OneIndia #PollOfPolls #DelhiPolitics #Oneindia
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00:00The die is cast and the battle lines are drawn.
00:03It is the battle royale in the capital of India.
00:07Delhi elections has been over.
00:10The voting is done and dusted.
00:12And now it's all important.
00:14Number game comes into picture.
00:15Keshav, big day, big day.
00:1770 seats up for grabs.
00:19Exit polls are coming up.
00:22All the exit polls agencies are doing it.
00:25I am feeling very upset about it.
00:28But exit poll numbers are not always reliable.
00:31The final picture will come on 8th February.
00:35Then we will know who gets what from the EVF.
00:39But the exit poll numbers are against the tide.
00:44Against the tide, absolutely.
00:46It is going in BJP's favour.
00:49Can you explain it to our viewers?
00:51Absolutely.
00:52Let's start.
00:53First of all, what did Matriz give?
00:55Aam Aadmi Party got 32-37 seats.
00:58That is just a shy above half of 70 seats.
01:02BJP got 35-40.
01:03Clear majority.
01:04Indian National Congress got 0-1.
01:07Others got 0.
01:08Keshav, People's Pulse.
01:09In People's Pulse, Aam Aadmi Party got 10-19 seats.
01:14BJP got 51-60 seats.
01:16INC has no seat in Congress.
01:19Others have no chance.
01:21PMAR.
01:22PMAR's numbers are balanced.
01:2521-31 for Aam Aadmi Party.
01:28Which is a ruling government.
01:3049-49 for BJP.
01:330-1 for Congress.
01:350-1.
01:36This number is similar to Matriz.
01:39Definitely.
01:41Poll of all polls available with us.
01:44Unilaterally, all exit poll agencies have issued their data.
01:49Aam Aadmi Party is slightly behind BJP.
01:52Poll of all polls available with us.
01:54Aam Aadmi Party got 21-29 seats.
01:57BJP got 42-50 seats.
01:59Congress got 0-1 seats.
02:05How will this happen?
02:08There are 3 fall outs.
02:11First, Congress will open or not.
02:15They will get 1 seat.
02:17But, Keshav, Aam Aadmi Party got 3 exit polls.
02:23Polls of BJP.
02:26Researchers are coming back with big numbers.
02:29Is this a situation of BJP loyal than the king?
02:34It looks like loyal than the king.
02:37But, I want to add one more thing.
02:41I am just throwing up the data.
02:44There is Falodi Satta Bazaar.
02:46Actually, Falodi Satta Bazaar has betting on everything.
02:52And, its numbers are very close to the actual results.
02:59In the latest Falodi Satta Bazaar poll,
03:02Aam Aadmi Party got 34-36 seats.
03:05And, BJP got 34-36 seats.
03:11If we stick this exit poll on Falodi Satta Bazaar,
03:15the numbers are very close to the actual results.
03:19But, the real question is how BJP is turning the tide.
03:24Absolutely.
03:25In Delhi, BJP's visit to Congress,
03:29even though they had 15 years of experience,
03:32but the way BJP was claiming,
03:34at least in the exit poll and poll of polls,
03:37BJP is coming forward.
03:39This time, when we covered Delhi,
03:42we went to the heart of Delhi, Karawal Nagar and other areas.
03:45There, Aam Aadmi Party's dedicated vote bank was intact.
03:52But, BJP was coming forward with new issues and new promises.
03:56So, Pankaj, Aam Aadmi Party has gone for the fourth time in this election.
04:00They made a government twice.
04:01They made a government for the first time as well.
04:03But, it didn't last for long.
04:05In 49 days, they ended their government.
04:08After that, they have run two full-term governments.
04:11For the third time, they are going for full-term.
04:13In fact, this is their fourth election.
04:15So, there will be anti-incumbency.
04:17Aam Aadmi Party was supposed to reduce.
04:19I don't think BJP will get a single-handed lead in the exit polls.
04:25And, Pankaj, I don't believe this figure.
04:29Because, if Congress is not getting anything,
04:33then how has BJP been increasing?
04:36This is a big question of the exit poll.
04:39You mean to say that if Aam Aadmi Party's seats were reducing,
04:42then Congress should have cut the seats.
04:44Congress should have cut the seats.
04:46If Congress is not improving its situation,
04:49if we look at all the exit polls,
04:53even in the poll of polls,
04:55Congress has been predicted to get only 1 seat from 0.
04:59They were saying that Sandeep Dixit might win.
05:03If Alka Lamba wins,
05:04it seems that Sandeep Dixit has gone out of this race.
05:06Yes, he has gone out of this race.
05:07And, it seems that Congress has been ruined.
05:10Whatever it is,
05:11the poll of polls,
05:12as far as the exit polls are concerned,
05:13they have gone wrong before as well.
05:15But, if we consider this as well,
05:17whatever Aadhaar it is,
05:18whatever sample size it is,
05:19whether it is Matrice, B. Pankaj, B. Mark,
05:21and now we are going to show you the poll of Times On Navbharat, JVC,
05:24it seems that, Keshav,
05:26somewhere or the other,
05:27the popular opinion that you see forming somewhere,
05:30and the opinion that you want people to see and believe,
05:34this is reflected in that.
05:36But, Pankaj,
05:37I would like to highlight one more thing here,
05:39that what is the methodology of the exit poll?
05:41Yes.
05:42When the candidates exit from the polls,
05:44then we ask them indirect questions,
05:46and we do the coding,
05:48and then we analyze it,
05:50and reach a conclusion.
05:53When the polls end at 6 pm,
05:57and we are always seeing that,
05:59when the day is about to end,
06:01the voting rate increases at that time.
06:03So, these figures have been included.
06:06You have talked about the sample size,
06:08how much precision is there in it.
06:10All these things come in this game,
06:13although the exit poll and the exact poll figures
06:16are always different.