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00:00Well, joining me to discuss this Eberhard Kinley, Research Director at CNRS.
00:05Thank you so much for taking the time to speak to us today on the program.
00:09Thank you for having me.
00:11So the ceasefire deal that's been struck is rather similar to the one proposed by Biden
00:16back in May, but it's only taking place now.
00:18So would you say Trump was the catalyst for this outcome?
00:22Yes, to an extent, I suppose.
00:26He certainly wanted to have some good news for himself before his inauguration.
00:31And I suppose it's largely to do with his prestige, his sense of prestige, and of course,
00:38his ability to put perhaps additional pressure temporarily on Netanyahu, who was not extremely
00:46impressed by the pressures, the very limited pressure exercised by Biden.
00:52Now that we're cautiously optimistic about things moving on in the region, what kind
00:58of impact do you think Trump will have on the Middle East?
01:01Would you say that his approach will be more or less in the same direction as Joe Biden's?
01:07It's very difficult to say at that stage, because we all know that President Trump or
01:11future President Trump, he will only be inaugurated tomorrow, that he is volatile, that he is
01:17not always extremely consistent, as we have seen in other issues like the Bitcoin issue.
01:23Now, this being said, there are a few, I think if we go back in history, there are a few
01:29sort of guiding lines that help us to understand where he might be going within, of course,
01:35these parameters of volatility.
01:37I suppose he is still very much wedded to his old ideas, the ones like the Abraham Accords
01:45and the Trump plan in 2020.
01:50So I think if we go back to his first mandate, we will see what is in store for the Middle East.
02:01It's more or less in the same vein as what you said, but under the first Trump administration,
02:05the US recognised Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
02:09He also recognised Jerusalem as the capital and closed the PLO office in Washington as well.
02:14Are we likely to see this sort of hardline approach continue then?
02:20I suppose this is the most likely option.
02:23Again, we don't quite know.
02:25But if some pressure was exercised or exerted on Netanyahu this time round, that does not
02:31mean that the American plans and the Trump plans for the Middle East are, say, hostile
02:39to what the current Israeli government considers as its interest.
02:44So indeed, I think deals in the Israeli-Palestinian affairs that will be proposed or suggested
02:52will be much more in the Israeli interest than in the Palestinian interest.
02:59Now let's talk a bit about Trump's ties with the Israeli government, because we've heard
03:04reports that his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has doubled his stake in a financial firm
03:09that stands to gain from financing illegal Israeli settlements in the Palestinian territory.
03:14I wonder what you make of this.
03:16Well, I suppose this is sadly true.
03:22So there may be a conflict of interest.
03:25But I suppose even without such a conflict of interest, what we know about Trump, what
03:32we know about his earlier policies, indicates that any deal that will be suggested or proposed
03:38will be far less in the Palestinian interest than in the Israeli interest, or at least
03:43in the interest as formulated by the current Israeli government.
03:46So I think the conflict of interest issue is one of them, but certainly not the major
03:51one.
03:52By and large, people who voted for Trump, by and large the people around him, are certainly
03:57much closer to the current Israeli government than to the Palestinian administration or,
04:03of course, to Hamas.
04:05And how do you think the U.S. support for annexation impact Israel's relations with
04:11its Arab neighbors, particularly those involved in the Abraham Accords?
04:17This is difficult to say, because, well, last time around, of course, these proposals, they
04:26did not go through for the obvious reason that Trump is no longer president.
04:30Now, we remember also that in the old days, Saudi Arabia was, well, not divided, but it
04:36was sort of not entirely opposed to these ideas.
04:40And I suppose the Saudi government at the time would have accepted a deal that favors
04:48Israeli interest.
04:49Today, this may be different.
04:51However, we should also see that the Gulf states, they do not have that much sort of
04:56leeway or that much of leverage on the United States.
04:59So it may well be that a new President Trump will try to impose or will try to impose a
05:06solution that may even contradict the interests of some of its allies.
05:12And going forward, do you expect Trump to prioritize a long-term solution for Gaza,
05:18or will his focus remain on supporting Israel's security efforts?
05:25Trump and long-term solutions seem to be a contradiction in terms.
05:30We already mentioned his, say, volatility and his tendency to change his opinion.
05:39Now, I don't think that Trump is at this particular moment thinking about a long-term solution.
05:46He is thinking about a short-term solution, which will help his inauguration, which will
05:51help him in the early days of his new mandate.
05:55I do not think that he is in a position at the moment to envisage anything in the longer
06:02term.
06:03Now, also the people around him, we'll have to see who will sort of wield more influence
06:09in this Trump administration, people like, for instance, the new or the probably new
06:14Ambassador Huckabee to Jerusalem, or Waltz, the national security advisor.
06:23There are people who are certainly more able and more willing to think about long-term
06:29solutions than others.
06:31So I think this is really, the jury is out.
06:34However, if there is a long-term solution, or if Trump sort of continues to push his
06:42agenda, the one that he pushed some four years ago, we will see a long-term solution
06:49that is in the favor of the current Israeli government in its majority, however fragile
06:53it is.
06:54It will be one that will possibly go to annexation and maybe the expulsion of Palestinians from
07:02Gaza, maybe from the West Bank.
07:04This is certainly a possibility.
07:06There is a possibility also that we will move, if reason prevails in Washington, that we
07:11will move to some sort of two-state solution, something, however, that will be not two states
07:17as we imagined them normally, but one state, Israel, and a statelet, which would be Palestine,
07:25as envisaged under the first Trump plan.
07:27Now, there is also possibly the, well, what I would call the latest Blinken plan, a solution
07:36that he sketched out a few days ago at the Atlantic Council, which would involve the
07:41Palestinian Authority, which would involve non-Hamas representatives from Gaza, which
07:49would involve international forces from Arab countries and abroad, either, as well in a
07:55sort of transitory government and in a transitory security force.
08:01However, I think, well, however difficult this would be to put in place, it's not something
08:06that is likely to win the favors of Trump.
08:09So I suppose the sort of less favorable options for the Palestinians are more likely.
08:17And just lastly, if you will, how would you characterize Trump's strategy vis-a-vis Iran?
08:23Are we likely to see a continuation of the maximum pressure approach we saw during his
08:28first administration?
08:30Again, with the caveats earlier made, we are not sure.
08:34Still, this is very likely.
08:36Now, Trump in general, so far we have seen, is not somebody who would like to go to war.
08:43I think his instincts, his ideas is to put pressure through economic pressure, blockades,
08:52sanctions, and so on and so forth.
08:54I think this is the general approach.
08:56And that's, I suppose, what he meant if all hell would might break loose in the Middle
09:00East, that he would resort to these sort of issues, to these sort of techniques.
09:04However, with Iran, I think there may be an exception, and indeed maximum pressure may
09:10go as far as war.
09:12Eberhard Kindler from CNRS, thank you so much for taking the time to speak to us on France
09:1724 today.