Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire deal to pause the devastating war in the Gaza Strip, multiple officials announced Wednesday, raising the possibility of winding down the deadliest and most destructive fighting between the bitter enemies. Oliver McTernan, founder of the Forward Thinking NGO, fears that "it's almost a spoilers' dream that is on offer" with the deal, as opposing factions will continue in their attempts to scupper the peace efforts.
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NewsTranscript
00:00This is Apropos.
00:04After 15 months of bloodshed that's killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and inflamed
00:09the Middle East, negotiators have reached a phased deal to end the war in Gaza.
00:14The complex accord outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase and includes the gradual withdrawal
00:21of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip and the release of hostages taken by Hamas in
00:26exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
00:30The deal, which is set to take effect on Sunday, will flood desperately needed humanitarian
00:35aid into a devastated territory where medics say more than 46,000 people have been killed,
00:41over half of them women, children and the elderly, as Antonia Kerrigan reports.
00:49After more than 15 months of war, an ever-mounting death toll and a narrow strip of land laid
00:55to waste.
00:56On the 14th of January, Gaza's health ministry said at least 46,645 people had been killed
01:04and 110,012 injured.
01:08It says more than half of the victims are women and children.
01:11But a study released in early January by peer-reviewed medical journal Lancet found that casualties
01:18in just the first nine months of the war were under-reported by 41%, with deaths already
01:24at 64,260 by the end of June 2023.
01:29The United Nations estimates 1.9 million people in Gaza have been displaced at least once.
01:35That's 90% of the population.
01:37Given the sheer destruction, many now live in tents.
01:41UN satellite imagery from September showed more than 65% of structures have been damaged.
01:47That's some 163,700 buildings.
01:52Gaza City, in the northern part of the strip, is the worst affected, with more than 36,000
01:57buildings damaged.
01:59A satellite assessment from July estimated the war had generated about 42 million tonnes
02:05of debris.
02:06That's 14 times more than all of the debris produced by the other conflicts in Gaza since
02:112008.
02:14By August, the UN satellite images showed 70% of Gaza's roads damaged, a factor that
02:20has complicated deliveries of humanitarian aid, while the WHO says that only 16 out of
02:26the strip's 36 hospitals remain partially functional.
02:31The Israeli army claims to have killed some 17,000 to 20,000 militants from Hamas and
02:36other groups since the start of the war, but Israeli media have questioned the veracity
02:40of these figures, suggesting the army may not have always distinguished correctly between
02:45quote, terrorist and civilian.
02:48Hamas losses include several brigade commanders and dozens of battalion commanders, as well
02:53as Yahya Sinwar, chairman of the Hamas political bureau and mastermind of the 7th of October
02:59attack.
03:00Meanwhile, at least 405 Israeli troops have died in operations inside the strip and on
03:07the border since the beginning of the war.
03:09For more, we're joined now by Oliver McTernan, an experienced mediator, commentator on Middle
03:16East affairs and founder of the charitable organisation Forward Thinking.
03:21Thanks so much for being with us on the programme this evening.
03:24As we've been saying, there's limited detail at this stage about what exactly is going
03:28to happen in later phases of this deal.
03:31Are you confident that the ceasefire will hold?
03:34Is it too early to say?
03:36I'm afraid it's far too early to say.
03:39And even now, we're getting contrary briefings.
03:44I've just listened to a briefing from the Israeli prime minister's office.
03:50And David Mercer was saying, oh, but I must haven't agreed yet to the treaty.
03:55He was trying to justify why his prime minister hadn't agreed.
04:01So I think when you're getting this sort of confusion, our hope is that it will hold,
04:09of course.
04:10Those frightening statistics we've just heard from your report underline the need, not just
04:17for this temporary pause it is in the fighting, but for a permanent ceasefire and a determined
04:24effort to find a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
04:30And Oliver, once everything is in place and it comes into effect on Sunday, how is this
04:34deal going to be enforced?
04:36What kind of mechanisms will be in place to make sure both sides actually adhere to
04:41the terms?
04:43It's very difficult to know.
04:45We've heard the Qataris explain that there will be monitors and so forth.
04:51But for me, what I can grasp of what's being revealed so far, I fear it is almost a spoiler
05:00stream that is on offer.
05:03Because you're going to have an interaction between the Gazan population still and Israeli
05:11forces in parts of Gaza.
05:14Now for spoilers, that will be on both sides.
05:17On the Palestinian side, there are people who've made a lot of money out of this war.
05:23People gangs that have been raiding food and so forth.
05:27They will look for ways, I think, of spoiling the agreement.
05:31Secondly, on the Israeli side, there will be people in the IDF and always have been
05:38who are ideologically opposed to any sort of rapprochement or agreement with Palestinians.
05:45And again, we'll look for opportunities to spoil it.
05:48So I think we're in for a bumpy few months ahead.
05:52But the quicker we can get to a permanent ceasefire, and as I say, a determined effort
05:58to once and for all address the root causes of the conflict, which is occupation, then
06:04I think we're still in these uncharted waters.
06:09And Oliver, Joe Biden mentioned earlier that this is more or less the same deal that was
06:13on the table back in May.
06:15So why this breakthrough now?
06:16Donald Trump also very quick to take credit for this agreement.
06:22And I think he's probably right in taking credit.
06:25We've seen for the past 15 months that Joe Biden gave total support to Benjamin Netanyahu
06:33and his war effort.
06:35There was no red lines in Biden's word between America and Israel.
06:40Now Biden this evening was trying to say, well, it was that pressure that has brought
06:45Hamas to the table.
06:47I would profoundly disagree with it.
06:49I think it was the pressure up till now, the military pressure that has actually prolonged
06:55us reaching a ceasefire and a new direction in this conflict.
07:00The Trump factor is I think Donald Trump was determined to pick up where he left off four
07:07years ago.
07:08And if you recall, four years ago, his big project in the region was promoting the Abraham
07:15Accords.
07:17He saw this as a way of bringing the region together for economic benefits.
07:24He saw if he could get the Abraham Accords up and fully functioning, then it meant big,
07:31big, big dollars for the American economy.
07:35And I think Trump has let it be known two things, that he is determined not to inherit
07:42conflicts.
07:44So he must, I think, have put pressure on Netanyahu to finally agree to a ceasefire
07:54and hostage exchange.
07:56But also, I think, to move forward in the way of seeing how this original Trump plan
08:05of four years ago can now be implemented.
08:09Oliver, what next for Gaza and for people there?
08:12Huge tasks lie ahead in terms of getting humanitarian aid back in, rebuilding communities, reconstructing
08:18facilities.
08:19And who is going to oversee all of this?
08:21Well, again, this is so uncertain.
08:24Who's going to govern Gaza is still an open question.
08:30About a month ago, the Egyptians proposed that there should be a 15-person local government.
08:39With people who would be respected within the community in Gaza being given the authority
08:44to govern.
08:45Well, that's fine, but you need more than just people governing.
08:51You need some sort of security structure.
08:54And as far as I can see, no thought has been given to what type of security structure will
09:00now work within Gaza.
09:03We've seen where the Hamas police have not been able to operate, or the Gazan police,
09:09I would stress, because they're not all Hamas, where they haven't been able to operate.
09:14We see how gangs exploited the situation.
09:17Now, I think there is some serious thought given to how this is going to be governed
09:24and particularly how it's going to be policed internally.
09:29I think we're at enormous risks, are clear.
09:34And our previous guest, Scott Lucas, we spoke to him a little bit earlier in the programme.
09:38He was talking about the West Bank also, suggesting that perhaps hostilities might be transferred
09:44there.
09:45We saw already this evening, within nearly minutes of this deal being announced, that
09:50five Palestinians had been killed there in an Israeli airstrike.
09:54So what happens with the West Bank with all of this?
09:57Well, again, the whole place is volatile.
10:01I think, you know, two, three years ago, it was very predictable that there would be an
10:07explosion.
10:08I actually thought it would take place on the West Bank.
10:11I was surprised in the manner of October the 7th.
10:14But the depth of frustration, of lack of future vision, is such that you're going to inevitably
10:26have violence.
10:27And I think there are elements within Israel that don't see the root cause of this is the
10:35ongoing occupation.
10:37They prefer to think that they can manage this by oppression.
10:41Well, I fear the last 15 months has shown that that is not the case.
10:48And what about Hamas?
10:49Netanyahu has said all along this war isn't going to end until Hamas is completely wiped
10:54out.
10:55And the Secretary of State saying yesterday that actually it's been recruiting nearly
10:58as many people, as many fighters as have been killed.
11:01So what kind of position is Hamas currently in?
11:04Its senior leaders clearly have been wiped out, but you can't wipe out an ideology.
11:11You're right.
11:12But I think Hamas isn't so much an ideology.
11:15It's a resistance movement.
11:17It's a response, and it uses Islam as its point of reference, as Christian sometimes
11:26use just war theory as a point of reference.
11:30But I think it's important that as long as, to emphasize, as long as occupation is there,
11:37you will have resistance, whatever the name.
11:40Today it may have the title Hamas, tomorrow it'll have some other title.
11:44What needs to be addressed now is the recognition that unless we're going to end occupation,
11:53give Palestinians the rightful state, that both sides will not have the security they
11:59deserve.
12:00Oliver, we'll have to leave it there for now, but we do really appreciate your time on the
12:04programme.
12:05Thanks for being with us this evening.
12:06That's Oliver McTernan, commentator on Middle East affairs and founder of the charitable
12:11organisation Forward Thinking.
12:13Well, that's it from us for now.