Stock Market Outlook 2025: नए साल के शुरु होने में चंद दिन रह गए हैं. 2025 में पोर्टफोलियो को मजबूत करने का मौका आ रहा है. कई चुनौतियों के बावजूद बाजार में 2024 में 8-10 फीसदी का रिटर्न दिया. इस दौरान इक्विटी फंड में लगातार इनफ्लो रहा. आगे आरबीआई की पॉलिसी, बजट समेत कई इवेंट्स हैं, जो मार्केट की दिशा तय करेंगे. ऐसे में निवेशकों को किन बातों का ख्याल रखना चाहिए? क्या शेयर बाजार नए साल में धमाकेदार रिटर्न के लिए तैयार है? ब्याज दरों में कटौती से मार्केट कितना बदलेगा और बजट को लेकर मार्केट की क्या उम्मीदें हैं? इन सब सवालों के जवाब के लिए गुडरिटर्न्स ने ट्रस्ट म्यूचुअल फंड के सीईओ संदीप बागला से खास बातचीत की है.
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~HT.178~PR.147~ED.148~GR.124~
#sharemarketinvestment #sharemarket #sharemarketprediction2025 #sharemarketnews #investmentstrategy #investmenttips #investmentplanning #sensex #nifty #nifty50 #banknifty #stockstobuy #stockmarket #sharemarket2025 #mutualfund #rbiratecut
~HT.178~PR.147~ED.148~GR.124~
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NewsTranscript
00:00Namaskar, my name is Digvijay Singh and I welcome you to Goodreturns.
00:04There are only a few days left for the start of the new year.
00:07How to restructure the portfolio, how to start a new investment,
00:11what to keep in mind and in which direction will the market move in the new year,
00:16what will be the mood, what will be the atmosphere?
00:18There is a budget and there are many big events as well.
00:21Where should we keep an eye on them?
00:23To talk about all these, the experts who are joining us today,
00:26it has been almost 25 years since they have been covering the market
00:29and now they are the CEO of Trust Mutual Fund.
00:31Sir, Sandeep Waghlajar, welcome to our show.
00:36First of all, thank you very much for giving us time.
00:39Thank you, thank you for inviting me to the show.
00:44So, Sandeep sir, where we are now,
00:47there are only a few days left till the end of 2024.
00:50If we look back, how are you seeing this year as an expert?
00:54How has this year been for you, sir?
00:57I think this year has been very good for the investors
01:01because the stock market activity has increased a lot.
01:09And last year, there was a very good performance.
01:14So, the returns have been very good for the investors who have remained in the market.
01:19And we learn that it is more important to spend time in the market
01:25and we have seen a lot of sectoral rotation.
01:28Sometimes one sector has done well, sometimes another sector has done well.
01:31So, there is a lot of money in the mutual fund investment schemes.
01:41We have also seen very good returns in fixed income.
01:44Interest rates have come down.
01:45And there has been a lot of growth in the equity markets,
01:48due to which investors have benefited a lot.
01:51If we talk about the mutual fund,
01:53there was a continuous inflow in the equity fund in the 45th month of November.
02:00If we talk about the retail segment, the trend is continuous.
02:05How are you seeing this trend, sir?
02:07If we compare it with other big countries,
02:12and this comparison is necessary because India is also going to become a big country.
02:20Our GDP is increasing.
02:22So, if we look at the external trends,
02:24we have seen that the penetration of mutual funds and equity is very high.
02:32We are gradually moving in that direction.
02:36I think our experience has been very good.
02:40But in the coming years,
02:42this trend of mutual funds and equity funds will increase.
02:51It will not decrease.
02:52So, I think the money that has come in the last 45 months,
02:56I think there is a lot of money coming in the next 45 months.
03:00If I talk specifically about thematic funds in mutual funds,
03:05if we look at the data of the last 3-4 months,
03:08the flow has been good.
03:10NFOs have also been launched continuously.
03:12So, what is your opinion on this, sir?
03:16I do not believe much in thematic and sectoral funds.
03:21Because I believe that the investor should fully dedicate the burden and responsibility of his investment to the fund manager.
03:33As an example, if you ask a fund manager to invest in banking,
03:43and he chooses a banking fund,
03:45then he does not have a choice.
03:49He will always be invested in a banking fund.
03:51Now, if there is a shortfall in the banking fund for some reason,
03:55then I cannot reduce my weightage on it.
03:57If you give money in a taxicab,
04:01then I can reduce my weightage from the bank and sell their shares.
04:06I can generate cash.
04:08So, in the sector that I have hope in,
04:12the active management that is there,
04:14the investor will have to do it.
04:16And I do not think that every investor is capable of doing it.
04:20And neither is it his job.
04:22So, let him do his job.
04:24So, when you have given money to the fund manager to manage,
04:28then you give it in open-ended schemes,
04:30in diversified schemes,
04:32where he has complete freedom
04:34to invest in the sectors of his choice.
04:38Here, the investment management activity
04:42is your responsibility to some extent.
04:45And we have seen that some sectors do not perform for a long time.
04:50And in that case, I think this is a sub-optimal choice.
04:57This is not a bad thing.
04:59But there can be better choices if you give it in diversified funds.
05:05Okay, great.
05:06But I would like to ask one thing,
05:08moving forward,
05:09that when we are entering the new year,
05:11then what trend should NIMSCO focus on?
05:15What trend should it follow?
05:17See, the biggest trend that we have seen
05:21is that India is increasing rapidly.
05:26India is the fastest growing country in the world.
05:31Many new sectors are opening up,
05:33new companies are being listed.
05:35And fund managers can choose this.
05:39So, India is the biggest trend.
05:42So, have faith in India.
05:45And it is possible that the growth may be less or more.
05:49But those who are running the country,
05:51those who are our guides,
05:53those who are our leaders,
05:55and those who are our regulators,
05:57they are doing their best to ensure that our policies are such
06:02that India continues to grow rapidly.
06:06So, for this, I think the biggest trend is India.
06:10And if you talk about some sectors,
06:12then what I have seen in the portfolios,
06:14that in our portfolios,
06:16there is a lot of pressure from pharma and manufacturing led companies.
06:22We are more inclined towards them.
06:24And if we talk about banking stocks,
06:27we have seen a mega trend
06:29that the people of India,
06:31who used to believe in savings,
06:33are moving towards investment.
06:35So, money is coming in mutual funds and equity.
06:38So, the companies that are involved in savings to investments,
06:42we think they will show good growth.
06:45In this, there is a wealth management company,
06:47mutual fund company, distribution,
06:51which is our RTE agent,
06:55which are brokers.
06:57These are the companies
06:59in which our portfolio has a little more weightage.
07:04So, the high growth companies that we are looking at,
07:07are in these sectors.
07:09But, as you know, the market is very dynamic.
07:13And according to valuation and prospect,
07:17the best fund managers,
07:19according to the environment,
07:21can change their portfolios.
07:24Sir, there is a small issue in the market,
07:28that the performance of the market in 2024,
07:31will not be the same in 2025.
07:34This is what people are assuming.
07:36What is your opinion, sir?
07:38What will be the performance of the market in 2025?
07:41Look, there are a lot of new things happening in the market.
07:45For example, our biggest market, USA.
07:49Donald Trump has come there.
07:52His policies can be different.
07:54He has put a lot of such people in the policy,
07:57who have no prior experience of any policy.
08:01And to a large extent,
08:04he wants to increase his domestic economy.
08:08And he wants us to reduce imports,
08:11and impose tariffs.
08:13Now, it is also possible that
08:15he is talking to put some pressure in it,
08:17and something will happen in the actual.
08:19So, a lot of such policies and policies can come,
08:22which can cause a potential disruption in the markets.
08:26The future earnings of the companies,
08:30can have an impact on it.
08:32So, this is a lot, you know,
08:34what is the market,
08:35that the market likes uncertainty.
08:37Any markets,
08:39always want that,
08:41there should be growth at the right pace.
08:44This is a very big potential factor.
08:47So, we have to keep this in mind,
08:50that this can lead to a volatility in the market.
08:53And those who want to invest for a long time,
08:56may get an entry point to invest.
08:59What I think is,
09:01No, no, continue, continue, sir.
09:04No, no, I wanted to say one more point.
09:07Till now, we have seen that,
09:09in the last 14-15 years,
09:11the central banks,
09:13globally,
09:14the biggest central banks,
09:16they have printed a lot of money.
09:18And they have increased their balance sheet.
09:20And the assets in the public market,
09:23the bonds,
09:24they have bought all this.
09:26Because of which, a lot of money
09:28has come into the system.
09:30And because of that,
09:32the current,
09:33maybe a little inflation,
09:35is not coming under control.
09:37So, it is possible that,
09:39the money that is floating in the system,
09:42and I am talking about the global economy,
09:44may become a little less.
09:46If it becomes more than a limit,
09:50then it can also have an impact.
09:52We have noticed that,
09:54foreign investors,
09:55for the last few months,
09:57have been selecting continuously.
09:59So, this is an assumption,
10:01that if the global liquidity decreases,
10:04then,
10:05global investors may not support them.
10:08So, these are the two-three things,
10:10like inflation,
10:12and global liquidity,
10:14and some economic politician-led
10:18uncertainties,
10:20which the market will have to face
10:22in its next phase.
10:25Okay, so,
10:26in February,
10:27which will be such a month,
10:29there will be a key event in that,
10:31in terms of the market.
10:32First, there will be a budget,
10:33and then,
10:34there will be an RBI policy.
10:35And an assumption is being made,
10:36let's talk about the policy first.
10:38So, the policy,
10:39as you are saying,
10:40the matter of liquidity is there.
10:42Now, the assumption that is being made
10:44about the rate cut,
10:45it is being said that,
10:46from February,
10:47the Indian Reserve Bank,
10:48can make a cut-off.
10:51How big a trigger will this be,
10:53for the share market,
10:54especially,
10:55for the domestic market?
10:58If you look at the growth rate
11:00of the last 6 months,
11:01the growth was very low,
11:03which was expected to be around 6.5-7%,
11:06it was around 5.5%.
11:08So, definitely,
11:10the slowdown that we have seen,
11:12keeping that in mind,
11:15maybe a rate cut should be made,
11:17if our inflation is not too high,
11:19if it is at a comfort level,
11:21the RBI is moving towards a comfort level.
11:23So, definitely,
11:24we believe that a rate cut will come.
11:26Now,
11:27it is difficult to say that,
11:29with a cut of 25-50 basis points,
11:31will the people of the country get the assurance
11:37that they should spend more,
11:39earn more,
11:40and invest more?
11:42This is a supportive factor,
11:44but it is not necessary that,
11:46only because of this,
11:48the growth in the market
11:49is determined.
11:51So, to support growth,
11:54I think,
11:55interest rates will be cut.
11:57But, I do not expect that,
11:59it will be cut very soon.
12:01So, it will be a gradual process.
12:03The central banks will also take a quick step.
12:07Because, we do not want the inflation to go too high,
12:10and we have to reverse our policy.
12:12So, that is why,
12:13the rates will be cut.
12:14But, we do not expect a very high rate cut in one go,
12:18as of now.
12:19If the economy weakens for some reason,
12:22then it is possible that the rate cut will be high.
12:24But, right now,
12:25we expect a rate cut of 50 to 75 basis points,
12:28in about a year.
12:30So, it will not have a very big impact.
12:33This is positive for the equity markets.
12:35But, you know,
12:37we do not know,
12:38if this will shift the tide.
12:42Okay.
12:43On 1st February,
12:45the country's budget will be presented.
12:47What are your expectations regarding the budget?
12:50Specifically,
12:51which sector are you looking at,
12:54to see more action in this sector,
12:58or to see an opportunity for investment?
13:01Where are you looking at?
13:03I think,
13:04the budget is not a very important event,
13:08in terms of the stock market.
13:10In terms of the bond market,
13:12it is more important.
13:13Because,
13:14the fiscal consolidation,
13:17I have noticed that,
13:19the current government,
13:21wants the private sector to rise.
13:25And, the government should not spend so much.
13:28So, they have done a lot of capital expenditure.
13:32And, I hope that,
13:33there will be an increase in capital expenditure.
13:36I don't think this will happen.
13:38So, I think,
13:39there will be fiscal consolidation.
13:41And, there will be policies,
13:43that will increase the investment and consumption of the private sector.
13:47So, I don't have much expectations.
13:50I don't think,
13:51there will be any step,
13:53that will push the markets.
13:56I think,
13:57even if there is a maintenance budget,
13:59I think,
14:00it will be good for the market.
14:02Okay.
14:03So,
14:04which sector would you like to point out?
14:08If,
14:09this sector is not very populist,
14:12or if it doesn't have a lot of publicity,
14:15but still,
14:16if you want to underline any sector,
14:18that you want to keep in mind.
14:20I think,
14:21we have a lot of expectations in manufacturing.
14:24Because,
14:25our growth in India,
14:27if it doesn't improve in the manufacturing sector,
14:30then it won't be able to sustain growth.
14:32So, I think,
14:33in the budget,
14:34the manufacturing companies,
14:36defence,
14:37railways,
14:38all these stocks can run.
14:40All these companies,
14:42can get a push.
14:45If they get a push,
14:46direction,
14:47speed,
14:48which will increase their clarity,
14:50then this is our expectation.
14:52And,
14:53it would be good for banking too,
14:54if the interest rate is low,
14:55and there is fiscal consolidation.
14:57Then,
14:58the crowding effect of the government will be less.
15:00And,
15:01the private sector will get a boost.
15:02So, banks can also benefit.
15:04Sir,
15:05as a result of Accenture,
15:06the IT sector,
15:08has seen a slight boost in the IT sector,
15:11in the last few weeks.
15:13Although,
15:14there is a correction in the market,
15:15but,
15:16sector-wise,
15:17there has been a push.
15:18What do you think,
15:19the result season is about to start.
15:21How can the result season be?
15:23Because,
15:24Accenture has indicated,
15:25that it will be better.
15:27So,
15:28how do you see the result season?
15:30See,
15:31I think,
15:32the result season should be improved.
15:35Because,
15:36in the second half,
15:37we hope that,
15:38the government expenditure,
15:39which was very less,
15:40in the first half,
15:41because,
15:42there were elections at that time,
15:44and,
15:45maybe,
15:46there won't be any other problem.
15:48I think,
15:49the capital expenditure will increase in the second half.
15:52So,
15:53the economy will get its benefit.
15:54So,
15:55I think,
15:56the expectations,
15:57will be according to that,
15:58and,
15:59it can be a little better.
16:00Okay.
16:01If we talk about Sensex Nifty,
16:03in 2024,
16:04till now,
16:05Sensex Nifty has given a positive return of 8-10%.
16:08Sir,
16:09at what level are you looking at,
16:10if we talk about the first half of 2025?
16:12No,
16:13actually,
16:14in Mutual Funds,
16:15we don't have the skill set,
16:17that we can,
16:18Okay.
16:19Sensex Nifty.
16:20Okay.
16:21No,
16:22no,
16:23no,
16:24no,
16:25no,
16:26no,
16:27no,
16:28no,
16:29no,
16:30no,
16:31no,
16:32no,
16:33no,
16:34no,
16:35no,
16:36no,
16:37no,
16:38no,
16:39no,
16:40no,
16:41no,
16:42no,
16:43no,
16:44no,
16:45no,
16:46no,
16:47no,
16:48no,
16:49no,
16:50no.
16:51All right?
16:52Yes.
16:53It's Koram.
16:54Okay.
16:55All right.
16:56Okay.
16:58So,
16:59it's
17:00ks
17:01pers
17:02pros
17:03To understand the future mood of the market, what should we take care of?
17:08If you can tell us something like this.
17:10My personal experience, since you are asking a personal question,
17:14I feel that making money in trading is very difficult.
17:18And this market, you must have heard that markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain,
17:27you know, if you go bankrupt first, the market becomes irrational.
17:35So, we should try to ignore the short-term movements in the market,
17:41understand the long-term trend forms, invest in those companies where we have our own experience,
17:47where we understand, and keep it simple.
17:51And I say that Mutual Funds have done a very good job.
17:55Although I am in Mutual Funds, but I feel that Mutual Funds have done a very good job.
18:00They have captured a lot of growth and have put in a lot of different strategies.
18:07So, in my opinion, if you invest 100 rupees, then 70-80 rupees should be in Mutual Funds,
18:13which can be made for a long time.
18:15If you want to do trading, keep the amount small,
18:18which will not cause much loss and you will not be disappointed.
18:25Okay, so this is a question for Mutual Funds.
18:27If the new year 2025 is about to start, if I want to invest Rs. 1 lakh,
18:32how should I invest, where should I invest?
18:35If you can tell us something about this.
18:38Suppose you do not have any investment,
18:42then you can invest Rs. 40, which is my personal opinion,
18:47you can invest Rs. 40 in a short-term bond fund,
18:52which will give you a return of 7-7.5%.
18:55This will give you stability in your portfolio.
18:58And you can invest Rs. 7 in a small-cap fund and Rs. 30 in a flexi-cap fund.
19:06What happens in a flexi-cap fund is that the fund manager will buy different stocks
19:15and will keep changing them.
19:16There is flexibility in it.
19:18If you keep investing for 3-5 years, you will get a good return.
19:24And I am saying small-cap because today we call 100 big companies as large-cap
19:29and next 150 as mid-cap.
19:31This is a big company and it will grow according to the growth rate of the country.
19:41But below that, there are 4,500 small companies,
19:45where there is a lot of growth and new companies are being listed,
19:51new sectors are opening up, the economy is evolving.
19:55So I think if you invest in small-caps and sit for 4-5 years,
19:59then you will be able to capture the growth of the country well.
20:04So Rs. 40 in a short-term fund, Rs. 30 in a flexi-cap fund and Rs. 30 in a small-cap fund.
20:09Sandeep Bagla sir, thank you very much for connecting with us.
20:12After talking to you, I understood one thing,
20:14that even if it is an investment, you are showing more interest in the flexi-cap fund.
20:19And I think you would also like to say that you should remain flexible,
20:23be it in life, physically, mentally or as an investment.
20:27Thank you very much.
20:29Thank you so much.
20:30Thank you so much, sir.