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01:10Alright, it's just a two-man show this week.
01:14It's me and Will talking ball, doing picks, just to set the stage.
01:19It's Monday at, like, 2 o'clock, so we are flying blind.
01:24We haven't even played Monday Night Football.
01:26Our picks are going to be all over the place.
01:28Will, I have not even really looked at the board.
01:32So, like, knowing myself, this could either be the greatest gambling weekend ever or the worst.
01:39It's probably not going to be any in between, because it's going to be all gut feel.
01:43It's going to be all gut feel, and if the hamster dies in the wheel, we're here to pick each other up.
01:48We're going to work through this, have some fun.
01:50We had brutal weeks last week.
01:51I think I went 4 and, what did I go, 4 and 10?
01:554, 10, and 1. I went 5 and 9, 5, 9, and 1.
01:58We're both still over 500, so 118 and 114 is what you are at.
02:03I'm at 122 and 111, so we're still picking above 500, and we're still giving you some good insight.
02:12This is just going to be a tough week, so let's just hop into it, because it's a two-man game.
02:17By the way, just for context, if I freak out at any point, I took UTSA second half against Coastal Carolina for a lot,
02:24and this is the point of the, like, basically, Christmas week to New Year's, I spend, like, in a stupor just betting bowl games.
02:37I love it, but it's also, like, so maddening, because I'm just sitting in my basement right now,
02:43and I couldn't name one player on either team, and yet I have a large wager on them, responsibly.
02:49Yeah, this is where it's, like, we have, like, a week off, we have time off to be with friends and family,
02:55and you get more into the foxhole. You're like, this is where the contenders separate from the pretenders.
03:00You get more in the foxhole gambling.
03:02Yeah, exactly. Like, I already saw Saturday, there's, like, 17 bowl games.
03:06I'm going to be with my family down in Scottsdale, and I'm just going to be at war the whole time.
03:11I wouldn't want it any other way.
03:13Yeah, this is, listen, I always say this, like, yeah, I have three kids, they deserve vacation,
03:19we're going to go somewhere warm, there's a pool, they're going to get to play, they're going to get to do everything,
03:22but I deserve a vacation, too, and my vacation is getting to just bet every bowl game.
03:27Yeah, you're like all the college coaches right now, where it's like, hey, Santa can come in January when the season's over.
03:34Right now, we've got to lock in, we've got to focus up, we've got a bowl game to win.
03:38Right, don't I deserve a little rest and relaxation?
03:41If my rest and relaxation is betting Boston College versus Nebraska in the pinstripe bowl,
03:48let me have that. Let me enjoy myself.
03:52I hope you're taking Nebraska. I like us out there in New York.
03:55I'm taking Nebraska as well.
03:56All right, let's hop in.
03:57We've got first game, storyline games of the week.
04:00We've got three of them.
04:01Broncos at Bengals, Bengals minus three.
04:05Will, I have some bad news for you.
04:07I'm no longer a Bowe lever.
04:10I'm no longer a Bowe lever.
04:12Look, they blew the lead.
04:15They were running hot.
04:17Bowe, he does miss a throw where everybody was like up in arms.
04:20Is this a PI? Is this not a PI because the defender didn't get his head turned around?
04:23If he leads that, man, like, don't jump ship now.
04:27This is like a must-win situation.
04:29Now, the Bengals do scare me because of their high-powered offense.
04:32I am going to go with the Broncos here because I've been riding them all year.
04:36I just think defensively, if they can just keep explosive plays at bay,
04:42I won't say eliminate because they won't be able to.
04:44It's Joe Burrow.
04:45It's Jamar Chase.
04:46They won't be able to.
04:47But if they can just control time of possession,
04:49if they can get the running game going,
04:51I do like them against this very below-average Bengals defense.
04:55Okay, the Bengals defense is terrible.
04:57You're right on that.
04:58Joe Burrow, though, if it weren't for his record, he would be the MVP.
05:02He leads the league in passing yards.
05:04He leads the league in touchdowns.
05:05He is the first player ever, ever in NFL history
05:10to go seven consecutive games, three touchdowns, 250-plus yards.
05:15Think about that for a second.
05:17First ever to do that.
05:19He bought his own line of samurai swords.
05:21Yeah, they wanted guns.
05:22He got them katanas.
05:24Also, Jamar Chase, triple crown watch.
05:26He's officially on it.
05:27Like, I think he leads the league.
05:29I think he's going to definitely get it in touchdowns.
05:31He's up in yards.
05:32And then receptions is going to be the only one
05:34where it's like he's got a couple guys that are maybe
05:36five, ten receptions behind him, but he should get the triple crown.
05:39I'm taking the Bengals.
05:41So, last week you were on the show, my hot take,
05:44I laid out the plan of the Bengals making the playoffs.
05:48And everything that I said has gone to exactly how I mapped it out so far.
05:54Now, the only thing that has to happen is the Steelers have to beat the Chiefs
05:57because you need the Chiefs to play in Week 18 and actually try.
06:01But everything I've mapped out has gone so far.
06:04The Chargers beating the Broncos.
06:05The Bengals winning.
06:06The Bengals having a game here that means a lot.
06:09And that's all that I care about.
06:10I want to see the Bengals keep playing.
06:12God damn it, they didn't get third and five.
06:14I want to see the Bengals keep playing, you know,
06:17meaningful football and seeing just how good Joe Burrow
06:20can finish this season off.
06:21So, I'm taking the Bengals here.
06:23You're staying with the Broncos.
06:25I'm going to not fully hand in my believer card.
06:28I've got some questions.
06:30I'm starting to get some questions.
06:32The Broncos, like, you know, they beat the Chiefs, obviously,
06:35but they don't block the field goal.
06:36But ending the season with the Bengals and Chiefs,
06:38the Broncos could not be in a worse situation.
06:40I feel like they have to get this one.
06:42They have to get it.
06:43They have to get it.
06:44Yeah.
06:45If they go from nine to five to not making the playoffs,
06:48that would be all the good vibes.
06:51All the good vibes in this season.
06:52All right, fourth and five.
06:53My QB's scrambling.
06:54I don't know who this QB is.
06:56He's going to get there, I think.
06:59He got there.
07:00They gave him the first down.
07:01That should be ballgame.
07:03That's a winner.
07:04That's a winner before lunchtime.
07:07Hold on.
07:09Marburger.
07:11He fumbled out of bounds, though.
07:13Okay.
07:14We can cut that part.
07:15But, no, we can leave it in.
07:16All right.
07:17Next game.
07:18Yeah.
07:19Oh, it's Josh McCown's son is the starter.
07:21He actually played well.
07:23It's the backups in right now.
07:25Marburger.
07:26This kid, transfer portal.
07:28Put him in the transfer portal right now.
07:30Okay.
07:31Next game.
07:32Packers at Vikings.
07:34So, we don't know what happened in Monday Night Football.
07:36I'm going to say right now I think the Packers killed them.
07:39It would look stupid if it goes another way.
07:41But Packers at Vikings.
07:44Vikings are playing incredible football.
07:47Vikings are very much, like, I feel like the general population
07:52didn't realize that the Vikings could very well get the one seed
07:56and they controlled their own destiny to get the one seed.
07:58They just have to win their last two games.
08:00I'm going to take the Vikings in this game.
08:02I know you've been high on the Vikings all year.
08:04Sam Donald's just good.
08:06Like, no more.
08:07There was a stretch somewhere in the middle of the season where I was
08:09like, oh, no, is he turning back into a pumpkin?
08:11No.
08:12He's just good.
08:13He's just a good football player.
08:15Kevin O'Connell's coach of the year.
08:17He should be coach of the year.
08:19He's 25-9 in one score games.
08:21He's second all time as an NFL head coach.
08:23They're just a good team.
08:25And Sam Donald's just a good player.
08:28He fumbled.
08:29He fumbled before the first down.
08:31What's your pick in this game?
08:33I'm with you on the Vikings.
08:35I feel like Sam Donald's had an incredible year.
08:37The Vikings are going to have to think about paying this guy.
08:39You know Sam Donald's going to keep that chip on his shoulder to prove
08:41that he deserves a big contract by somebody.
08:43And, again, their all season acquisition with Aaron Jones,
08:47the all-purpose yards he has from scrimmage.
08:50Like, he's been one of their best assets this year.
08:53Because you talk about Sam Donald.
08:55You talk about Justin Jefferson.
08:57Look, Justin Jefferson, we all watched wide receiver on Netflix.
09:00Like, this guy wants it as bad as anybody,
09:02as much as the 53rd man on that roster.
09:04I'm going to go Vikings.
09:06It will be tough against the Packers because they are a good football team.
09:09They can run the ball well and they play good defense.
09:11But I do like the Packers and Sam.
09:13I like the Vikings and Sam Donald in this one.
09:15They reversed it.
09:17Wait, no.
09:19No, they reversed it.
09:21Coastal Carolina now has a minute 47 left and they have to stop them from scoring.
09:26Everything you said I agree with.
09:28I'm taking the Vikings.
09:30The Vikings are going to win this game.
09:32And they're going to get the one seed.
09:34That's my other hot take.
09:36They're going to get the one seed.
09:38It's crazy.
09:40That would be incredible.
09:42Kevin O'Connell, Coach Zier.
09:44All right.
09:46Game of the week presented by Chevy Silverado.
09:48The Kansas City Chiefs going to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
09:50Steelers are plus 2.5.
09:52Will, you're a noted Kansas City Chiefs hater.
09:54They are 14-1.
09:56All they do is win football games.
09:58Their defense is starting to play well.
10:00They've had...
10:02Two weeks ago, going into week 14,
10:04the Kansas City Chiefs were third to last
10:06in takeaways with 10.
10:08They've had eight in the last two weeks.
10:10I feel like everything's starting to ramp up
10:12for them.
10:14They got Xavier Worthy involved a lot more
10:16in the game plan against the Texans.
10:18Hollywood Brown.
10:20With all that said, I'm going to take the Steelers.
10:22I like the Steelers, too.
10:24Right after the games were played,
10:26Steelers get their ass whipped by the Ravens.
10:28I'm like, all right.
10:30I think I'm going Chiefs this week.
10:32Everything tells me it's going to be Chiefs.
10:34The more I get closer to this game,
10:36number one, it seems like Pickens is going to play.
10:38He will add a lot of value to that offense.
10:40Again, it's like Tomlin.
10:42Everyone's starting to talk about him.
10:44I heard Jerry hitting the shred line just talking about it.
10:46Is Tomlin great?
10:48This is the spot.
10:51This is a gut check moment for them.
10:53I do think they get away.
10:55I think they win against the Chiefs outright.
10:57If you look at the Steelers,
10:59the Texans,
11:01I want to say they got to Mahomes
11:0322 plus times.
11:05The Texans aren't even close
11:07to the pass rush that the Steelers have.
11:09I want to say they're fifth in the league
11:11in win rate in the pass rush.
11:13I'm going with the Steelers.
11:15Tomlin, Doggett, Holmes, Steelers.
11:17It's a good point.
11:19I cannot block for Patrick Mahomes.
11:21Patrick Mahomes is so special that it doesn't matter.
11:23By the way, the Coastal Carolina
11:25just ran the ball out.
11:27They said no Moss, winner.
11:29You got a winner.
11:31We're up in the holiday season. Merry Christmas.
11:33Huge.
11:35It was one of those games where it's like
11:37if you lose this game,
11:39why did you have such a strong opinion
11:41on UTSA versus Coastal Carolina?
11:43You fucking moron.
11:45I think this is a
11:47classic Steelers spot.
11:49They're taking on water.
11:51The fraud word is getting thrown out there.
11:53They were leading the AFC North
11:55a couple weeks ago.
11:57Now they're tied with the Ravens.
11:59They still control their own destiny.
12:01If the Steelers win out,
12:03they win the AFC North.
12:05They get that home playoff game.
12:07This is the spot.
12:09They have to buck up.
12:11They have to have a max effort here.
12:13Otherwise, they're going to be the team
12:15to beat.
12:17It would be 3 out of 4 losses.
12:19Week 18, who knows who's playing
12:21if the Bengals are going to still be alive.
12:23They got to win this game.
12:25You're right.
12:27With George Pickens back, I expect them to be
12:29more explosive.
12:31We agree on all three of our first picks.
12:33This is a big week for us.
12:35This is a good check week for ourselves too.
12:37We're above 500.
12:39After last week, this is one where we really
12:41get a look in the mirror.
12:43There's also some really gross games coming up
12:45that we're going to talk about.
12:47Let's get to our playbook picks
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13:13Get in on the bowl action.
13:15Feel what we're feeling.
13:17Get in on the bowl action.
13:19Get in the spirit.
13:21By the way, just a reminder, all these games
13:23obviously we're doing this on Monday morning
13:25so if some of the lines change,
13:27this is what the lines are right now.
13:29Your playbook pick,
13:31Willie Boy, what do you got?
13:33Commanders,
13:35Falcons.
13:37I think the Falcons are in a very unique spot.
13:39Pennix, he didn't have
13:41some insane stat line
13:43but if you watch that game and watch him play,
13:45he's very poised under pressure.
13:47Can obviously move around the pocket very well.
13:49We understood that with him coming out of Washington.
13:51Again, they beat up on
13:53the Giants. I like the
13:55Commanders here coming off a massive win.
13:57Jane Daniels, that last drive, two-minute drill.
13:59Marching it all the way down the field
14:01and that rope he put in the
14:03end zone. They have their franchise
14:05quarterback obviously but I like Washington
14:07here because
14:09at the end of the day, as good
14:11or as big of a jump as Pennix can make
14:13from game one to game two, I think that
14:15average defense of the Falcons just don't have
14:17what it takes to match up against the Commanders
14:19because the Commanders, they can run it, they can
14:21throw it, they can do so many different things
14:23because they have that athletic offensive
14:25line of scrimmage. I like the Commanders
14:27here. They haven't been 10-5
14:29since 1991. They're playing with
14:31so much spirit right now, so much inspiration.
14:33New quarterback, new coach.
14:35I like the Commanders a lot.
14:37I think I'm going to
14:39disagree with you here.
14:41It's a hungry
14:43dogs run faster. The Falcons
14:45look like they
14:47were dead because the Bucs were
14:49ripping off wins. The Falcons were
14:51losing left and right with Kirk Cousins.
14:53They make the switch. They had the
14:55biggest Sunday. Out of any team, they had the biggest
14:57Sunday because the Bucs lost. The Falcons
14:59win. What a loss.
15:01It's crazy. The Falcons control their
15:03own destiny. If they can win these last two games
15:05or in the playoffs, I like that they
15:07got Michael Penix's first start at home against
15:09a really bad Giants team. On
15:11the flip side, the Commanders,
15:13they get a little pressure
15:15off because their odds
15:17to make the playoffs shot up to like
15:1993% when they beat the Eagles
15:21on Sunday.
15:23The Commanders are a
15:25better team than the Falcons. I'm going to take
15:27the Falcons plus four, just hoping
15:29that it's a hungry dogs run faster.
15:31This is a tight game, close game.
15:33The Falcons defense
15:35has been playing a little bit better.
15:37I'm going to go with the Falcons plus four.
15:39It's like the Commanders
15:41too. They're 30th in
15:43rush defense and run defense.
15:45If they can just continue to feed Bijon,
15:47that could be the problem for them.
15:49You saw it. Bijon
15:51opened up a little
15:53because you can't
15:55defend the Falcons how you were defending them with Kirk
15:57Cousins, where you're bringing everyone down.
15:59You know that he's not going to stretch the field.
16:01You know he doesn't have mobility in the pocket.
16:03Now they got to worry about him in the backfield.
16:05They got to worry about
16:07the deep shots. Bijon has more
16:09lanes. He was able to run the ball really well
16:11against the Giants. I'm going to take the
16:13Falcons plus four.
16:15The saddest game ever. I can't believe
16:17the Bears have another
16:19primetime standalone game.
16:21The Seahawks at the Bears.
16:23Bears are plus three and a half.
16:25I'm going to take the Bears, but I don't believe in it.
16:27The Seahawks suck.
16:29Caleb doesn't suck.
16:31Caleb does not suck.
16:33Anyone who says Caleb sucks is not watching
16:35the games. The team
16:37sucks beyond belief.
16:39Hopefully Ben Johnson is our coach next year.
16:41Are you going to
16:43take the Seahawks?
16:45Yeah, I'm going to take the Seahawks.
16:47Nine game losing streak, it's not like the Bears
16:49are playing with fire the same way
16:51you could say the Panthers.
16:53The Panthers are still trying to play
16:55football. I just feel like the Bears are
16:57checked out this year,
16:59which is crazy given the talent
17:01that they have on that roster, but I do.
17:03I like Seattle.
17:05What happens from a player's
17:07perspective if you're in week
17:0916, 17, and you have
17:11nine game losing streak, and you know
17:13you're not going to the playoffs, how hard
17:15is it to actually get up and play these
17:17games? It's hard.
17:19I mean,
17:21guys that are on the roster that don't
17:23have contract guarantees and know what
17:25their situation is going to be next year, those
17:27guys obviously come to work because they're playing
17:29for their job all the time. Whether or not you're playing for
17:31the name on your front anymore, it's all
17:33about playing for the name on your back and still putting
17:35out as good of a product as you
17:37can individually.
17:39The things I've heard too with
17:41Caleb, and I hate putting out bad juju out there.
17:43This is going to be
17:45slander. Just put a slander alert.
17:47Bad
17:49sources alert, Tom.
17:51Just
17:53from what I've heard,
17:55you practice
17:57false starts on the quarterback because he
17:59doesn't know the snap count. Not being able to
18:01alert when a safety comes down and you have...
18:03Who the fuck is telling you this?
18:05You have a run play
18:07going one way and you don't alert it to go the
18:09other way and the running back gets smacked in the backfield.
18:11If you just listen to
18:13the TV copies, they're going on ready, set,
18:15hut. They're going on a very basic cadence
18:17because they're not able to
18:19open up all things. I'll tell you more
18:21after, but I
18:23like the Seahawks. I'm not
18:25lying. I'll talk to you more after.
18:27After we're done recording.
18:29Is it a faux pas
18:31if you're in this situation
18:33in the locker room to be like,
18:35hey,
18:37are we going to Cancun
18:39first week of January?
18:41Everyone's talking about that.
18:43You start making those plans?
18:45If somebody say my year
18:47and it was my first year
18:49and I think
18:51we went like three and 13.
18:53London Fletcher was retiring at the end
18:55of the year. The whole conversation
18:57the entire last part of the year was
18:59getting his retirement party
19:01set up in Vegas.
19:03Yeah, those
19:05conversations are being added, especially if you're in
19:07Chicago's locker room. You're having
19:09those. All right.
19:11Let's do the Fireball
19:13Rapid Picks segment
19:15by Fireball Whiskey.
19:17So many things make football great, but you know
19:19what the best thing is kicking the living shit out of your
19:21rival. There's absolutely no better feeling
19:23as an athlete or a fan this week. We've got
19:25Cowboys versus Eagles in
19:27Philly and Fireball Whiskey is here
19:29to give you the spark to ignite
19:31that rivalry all season long. Grab
19:33your football buddy, buy around
19:35and reignite the rivalry
19:37flame. All right, we got
19:39some bad games, couple good
19:41ones. The other Christmas
19:43game, Ravens, Texans,
19:45Ravens minus four.
19:47I'm taking the Ravens. Texans
19:49are just dead. And I know that
19:51that tanked L injury was horrific,
19:53terrible. I hate that that happened
19:55to him, especially because he was just coming back from
19:57another injury last year, season-ending injury.
19:59They're down to just Nico Collins.
20:01Their offense was already bad.
20:03The Ravens, I feel like, are
20:05starting to just hit that spot
20:07where it's like playoff football's coming.
20:09The perfect way I said
20:11it is Derrick Henry against
20:13the Steelers. He was the hammer and the Steelers
20:15were the nail. And that's what you're going to see
20:17down the stretch with Derrick Henry.
20:19Yeah, you're right.
20:21This one's like don't overthink it. Lean
20:23on the team that is peaking right now that can
20:25run the football. I think Derrick had like over
20:27160 yards over the weekend.
20:29They're the number one rush defense in the NFL.
20:31Again, all Stroud has is
20:33Nico Collins. They
20:35shut down, make them one-dimensional.
20:37This is Ravens to me all day.
20:39Yep. All right. Next game,
20:41Saturday games, we got Chargers
20:43at Patriots. Chargers minus
20:45five. Patriots actually showed a little life against
20:47the Bills, but the Chargers
20:49obviously still playing for their playoff lives.
20:51They got to go cross country.
20:53Oh, this is a
20:55tough one. I thought I was going to take
20:57the Chargers, but I didn't realize it was a five-point
20:59line.
21:01Yeah.
21:03You go. You go.
21:05This one's
21:07interesting. I'm going to go Chargers
21:09just because I think even though
21:11the Patriots had some life over the weekend,
21:13I think one thing, a
21:15conversation that we'll probably talk about with the Bills
21:17is they've given up like over 100
21:19points defensively in the last three games.
21:21Even though they had some life and made it
21:23interesting, I think the Chargers being able
21:25to have a comeback win against the Broncos in the
21:27division, knowing that their playoff hopes
21:29jumped a big percentage, I feel like they're
21:31playing for a lot more. Again, the Patriots coming
21:33to them, I like the Chargers.
21:35I'll go with the Chargers with you.
21:37I like your reasoning.
21:39Cardinals at Rams. Rams minus
21:41six. Cardinals
21:43are dead. They are completely out of the playoffs.
21:45Hold on one sec.
21:49Stella's going to come in and probably
21:51bother me and probably bark.
21:53Cardinals at Rams.
21:55I'm going to take the Rams. I also
21:57have a question for you here.
21:59Is Kyler Murray a franchise quarterback?
22:01No.
22:03I don't think so either.
22:05We're in year six and it's
22:07like they were six and four going into the
22:09bye week and
22:11he is not. It's not all on him.
22:13It's not. I'm not blaming
22:15100% him, but a franchise
22:17quarterback six and four after the bye week
22:19like you find a way to
22:21win a couple of these games and they haven't. They've
22:23just kind of fallen on their face and
22:25he makes these big time mistakes
22:27that just keep costing him
22:29and I don't know what the status of James Connor is.
22:31That changed the outlook of the game against
22:33the Panthers because he was going off.
22:35I'm going to take the Rams here and I just don't know
22:37like year six
22:39with Kyler Murray. It doesn't
22:41feel like we've gone to the next level.
22:43Yeah, and you were saying
22:45it too. If you have a franchise quarterback,
22:47you know the guys who are franchise quarterbacks. When you're
22:49going into a bye week six and four, you just have
22:51a different shit to you that Coach
22:53Campbell would like to say. Not that he doesn't
22:55have shit to him. He's got all the ability in the
22:57world, but you were positioned
22:59in such a good spot to take over
23:01the NFC West and they
23:03haven't done that and then they go out to Carolina
23:05again. They've been fighting their
23:07ass off. But again, the drop a game like that
23:09in that fashion against the Panthers.
23:11I'm Rams all day because I feel
23:13like even though they beat the Jets, the Jets
23:15that they found it. They found a little
23:17spark offensively with Aaron Rogers
23:19and Devante Adams, but
23:21to hold them the nine points. I think that rookie
23:23those rookie D lineman are playing their asses off
23:25Fisk and who's the other
23:27cat verse? Yeah, it's
23:29converse. And again, they're clicking right
23:31offensively in Stafford. You talk about
23:33a franchise type quarterback like that's
23:35that's the difference Stafford
23:37versus Kyler Murray right now. I'm going with
23:39Stafford. Okay, speaking
23:41of Jets at bills
23:43on Sunday Jets are nine
23:45and a half point underdogs. Josh
23:47Allen had an interesting comment
23:49after the game
23:51against the Patriots because that wasn't the
23:53best game for the bills, but
23:55you know, it's hard to win in this league. They
23:57just came off an emotional winning its lines, but he did
23:59say that they're in a weird
24:01spot right now because they're technically not out
24:03of it for the one seed, but
24:05they're most likely going to
24:07have a two seed here because the Chiefs keep
24:09winning and finding that
24:11balance of winning
24:13games, but
24:15not showing too much because
24:17they're going to they're they're they're building
24:19for the playoffs. So that that
24:21I think that they're kind of holding a little thing a
24:23little something back here. I kind
24:25of want to take the Jets, but
24:27I also feel like the bills could just
24:29you know, yes Stella. She's she's crying
24:31now for me. I did. She's just sitting here
24:33crying right next to me.
24:35She's doing all right. Okay. Yeah,
24:37it's just the minute. I stopped petting her.
24:39She's like where the pets go.
24:41I go ahead. Tell
24:43me what you think. I like
24:45the Jets because again, I
24:47feel like even though everybody
24:49is saying all their stuff about Aaron Rodgers.
24:51They have found a little
24:53bit of a rhythm him and Devontae Adams. I
24:55think that they make it interesting. Like you look at
24:57their you look at who they play. They lost
24:59the Seahawks by five Miami by four
25:01the Rams beat him 19 to nine
25:03last week, but I feel like I
25:05feel like the Jets can keep it close. I think the bills
25:07win this game. I just don't think
25:09they blow them out. I think the Jets can keep it
25:11close enough just to make it interesting.
25:13So you're taking the Jets?
25:15Yeah, I'm going Jets nine and a half
25:17and I was talking about it
25:19earlier, but as much
25:21as it's like, hey, do we unload the clip offensively?
25:23Everything else that has nothing to do with defense.
25:25There's not it's not like you're not showing everything
25:27you can or trying to play very sound
25:29defensively. They've given up a lot of
25:31points. They've given up like 40 plus
25:33two games. They just gave up
25:3520 something to the Patriots and the Patriots
25:37aren't that good of a football team.
25:39I just I feel like the Jets can score a
25:41little bit if I'm buying anything. I kind of like
25:43I kind of like over 47 and a half,
25:45but I'm going to go ahead and take the points.
25:47The only thing that makes me nervous is the Bills
25:49played so bad that it feels like they're going to be
25:51like, hey, that's not who we are. We have to like
25:53it was one of those wins that was almost a loss
25:55because there were 14 point favorites. They
25:57end up winning by three points. They need a couple
25:59turnovers in the second half
26:01in
26:03Buffalo to kind of sucks like that.
26:05It's going to be hard to play.
26:07Let's let
26:09let's let the rare producer Tom
26:11he's a diehard Jets fan
26:13on. Let me kick Stella out. But
26:15Tom, tell us what you think.
26:17The Jets always play well in Buffalo.
26:19I think nine and a half is a lot of points for
26:21him to cover.
26:23But yeah, my only thought would
26:25be kind of like what
26:27the catcher said that like if they didn't have that game
26:29last week against the game
26:31they had last week against the Patriots is the game
26:33that I would have expected the Jets to have.
26:35So now they already did that.
26:37I feel like they are due to kind of like kill
26:39us. And but I don't know
26:41I can't like
26:43reasonably take the Jets any week. I always take the Jets
26:45and they never. I think
26:47they keep it close. They probably don't win, but I think
26:49they can keep it close. It's like Aaron Rodgers.
26:51He's not he's not one that's going to just
26:53pack it in, especially with all the
26:55the media fire. Yeah, but him
26:57and Ryan keep it close.
26:59Yeah, he needs enough to have
27:01some to have some ammo.
27:03But you'll blink in the fourth quarter and
27:05the Buffalo will go up 14.
27:07So I don't know. Yeah, it'll
27:09yeah, it'll feel it'll feel like the Jets
27:11are covering maybe even almost winning.
27:13And then somehow they lose by two touchdowns.
27:15Yeah,
27:17I still thought I watched
27:19the game and I still thought the Jets beat the Rams. I'm like,
27:21how did we lose that game? I thought he didn't
27:23point. You scored nine points. You didn't punt.
27:25That's almost impossible.
27:27It's almost impossible scored on
27:29the first drive and scored a touchdown on the first
27:31drive. Didn't score again. Yes, it's
27:33crazy. All right, I'll take
27:35the bills. You gave me no confidence.
27:37Okay, quick one.
27:39Giants, Colts, Colts
27:41minus seven and a half. I'm going to take the
27:43Colts. The Giants are the worst team in football.
27:45Yeah, easy one.
27:47Let's just go. Let's just go Colts. I know they don't
27:49want to throw the football with Anthony Richardson, but
27:51the way Jonathan Taylor went off last week. Let's
27:53just go Colts seven for 11.
27:55Anthony Richardson was by the
27:57way, he's on TV. Watch. He's on
27:59TV. Watch. So TV
28:01starting quarterback. Worst completion
28:03percentage in a season 46.5
28:05percent. Anthony
28:07Richardson, I think is at 47.7
28:09percent. Big day going
28:11seven for 11. That was huge
28:13for it, but yeah.
28:15T-Bow watch.
28:17Okay, next up Panthers
28:19Bucks, Panthers plus eight. I'm going
28:21to take the Panthers. I know the Bucks just lost
28:23and this might be in the Panthers one,
28:25but man, the Panthers
28:27are just fighting like they're still
28:29playing hard and I don't
28:31the Bucks pass rush
28:33is like non-existent.
28:35Baker's a dog.
28:37I think they'll be able to score, but I think the
28:39Panthers will keep this game relatively close. They
28:41played to an overtime game like a
28:43month ago in Carolina.
28:45Yeah, I'm with you.
28:47I just like to see the fight like you
28:49thought in their post game when they're in the locker room
28:51that they have something to play for still the way
28:53how fired up they are. And again, you look at
28:55who they play like they obviously just
28:57got done beating the Cardinals, but they played
28:59the Eagles close. They played the Chiefs close.
29:01They played this team. If they don't
29:03they don't beat them. I think they keep it within that
29:05seven and a half range because it was
29:07disappointing to see the Bucks just
29:09throw that game away
29:11against the Cowboys. I'm not saying like they
29:13were up on them or anything, but just to go into
29:15Dallas and have that kind of showing when they had
29:17everything going for them to drop
29:19one like that is disappointing. So I'm going to go
29:21with the Panthers. Agreed. Agreed.
29:23Okay, next up
29:25Raiders Saints. I think I do. I owe you a
29:27thousand bucks.
29:29I know the Raiders won, but I
29:31didn't know. I kind of forgot the stipulation
29:33on the hole. I did too. We'll have to have Tom
29:35check that. Let's do a friendship bet
29:37the three of us. A thousand
29:39bucks. If any of our
29:41hot takes come true, the other two
29:43have to give the person a thousand bucks. I think
29:45that's actually fair. I have Raiders don't
29:47win a single other game.
29:49You have Raiders beat the Chiefs.
29:51That would actually be a double for me. I'd lose right away.
29:53And you have Titans to make it to the AFC
29:55I'm in.
29:57A thousand bucks. But what if
29:59none of these things are going to happen?
30:01No, I'll do the Raiders.
30:03It'll be my thing. Okay. Yeah, not Eberfest.
30:05Raiders. Raiders will not win another game.
30:07They're going to finish the season with two wins.
30:09But the Raiders did win. Completely
30:11fucked themselves with
30:13their draft. They went
30:15from the second or the first pick
30:17all the way down to the sixth pick.
30:19They're still fighting. The Saints
30:21obviously were taping this before Monday Night Football.
30:23Who knows what they're going to look like?
30:25I'm going to
30:27take the Raiders because
30:29Aiden O'Connell's not bad.
30:31Yeah, he's
30:33not bad. He's not going to do things to get you
30:35beat. I love how they mix up.
30:37Amir Abdullah, shout out to my boy from Nebraska
30:39who's just been getting in the mix late
30:41catching the ball out of the backfield
30:43with him and Madison. I do.
30:45I like the Raiders. And like you said,
30:47they are fighting. They're still having fun
30:49on the sideline, which is crazy
30:51to think about because you'd think AP's fighting for
30:53his job. But I
30:55love the fight out of these teams who are out of it
30:57and they still feel like they're playing for something at the
30:59end of the year. So I'm going to go with Raiders too.
31:01Yeah, okay.
31:03The Titans-Jaguars
31:05you did have as
31:07the Raiders won't win another game.
31:11Thousand bucks? Yeah.
31:13And then what was his part? Was that just a straight up bet
31:15or was that contingent on something else?
31:17I had something else as well.
31:19But yours was
31:21Iberflus getting fired, but you said that's not
31:23for the bet. That's just your other hot take.
31:25And then Will's was the Raiders were going to beat
31:27the Chiefs that week. And then
31:29Taylor's was the Titans would
31:31win the AFC South.
31:35I'll have to watch back the whole thing to see if I owe
31:37you a thousand bucks.
31:39So the Titans,
31:41they also might be
31:43the worst team in the league. Them and the Giants.
31:45Titans versus Jaguars.
31:47Titans are plus one.
31:49I have to take the Jaguars
31:51just because the Titans
31:53are two and thirteen against the spread.
31:55Do you know how hard that is to do?
31:57That is
31:59insane. They are
32:01so bad.
32:03Credit to them for fighting back in that game.
32:05Right.
32:07I'll say this right now,
32:09I know that, listen, DraftKings
32:11love draft. Don't bet this game.
32:13Don't bet this game.
32:15You can bet on any other game. Don't bet this game.
32:17You're betting this game.
32:19I'm going to bet this game, but don't bet this game.
32:21I'm going to take the Jaguars. Don't bet this game.
32:23I'm just going to go Titans.
32:25I'm going to go Titans.
32:27They're toward the top
32:29of the league, at least in pass defense.
32:31What they did in the run game last week is
32:33just crazy how they let
32:35a one-dimensional Colts
32:37team just have their way with them. But I'm going to go
32:39Titans. I'm going to take Mason Rudolph.
32:41This is a shit game.
32:43Don't bet this game. Big Cat's going to bet this game.
32:45I'm going to bet this game.
32:47Okay.
32:49Question for you.
32:51Do you think Callahan's one and done?
32:53I hope not. I like him.
32:55I know.
32:57He got handed a shit sandwich.
32:59You can't...
33:01I'm not in favor of hiring a guy
33:03and then firing him after a year
33:05when you knew that you were going to be
33:07bad.
33:09They got to spend money, though.
33:11But what would have been success
33:13if you don't have a quarterback?
33:15What would be success this year? Five wins?
33:17I don't know.
33:19I'm not a fan of that.
33:21I think you got to give him at least one more year.
33:23Yeah, I'm with you. I know
33:25being here locally, everybody had high hopes
33:27for Levis. Everybody had
33:29high hopes for that offense being surprising.
33:31The chatter here
33:33is potentially one and done.
33:35Damn, that would suck.
33:37Alright.
33:39Dolphins-Browns.
33:41I want an asterisk here.
33:43If DTR is starting,
33:45I'm taking the Dolphins.
33:47Anyone else starting, I'll take the Browns.
33:49But DTR is not a NFL quarterback.
33:51Every time he starts, I bet against him
33:53and I've won every single time, I think.
33:55Agreed.
33:57I'm right. I'm tailing Big Cat on this one.
33:59Put me down for the same.
34:01Yeah, asterisk there.
34:03Cowboys at Eagles.
34:05Cowboys plus nine and a half.
34:07We assume Jalen Hurts will be back.
34:09Give me Cowboys.
34:11The Cowboys are playing good football.
34:13Bro, when I
34:15was on the show and talking
34:17crazy about Cooper Rush,
34:19because the game I watched,
34:21there's no way the Cowboys won another game.
34:23The fact that he's like eight and four
34:25as a starter for them and playing with some life,
34:27they've been surprising.
34:29And I think
34:31there's so much that goes on in Philly.
34:33You'd think they're damn near out of the playoffs
34:35since they lost that game
34:37having five turnovers
34:39against the Commanders and not pulling
34:41that one off.
34:43It seems like it feels
34:45like it's a dumpster fire when you see all of
34:47Philly faithful, the way they talk on
34:49Twitter and social media.
34:51I just think there's too much drama that
34:53follows them, so I'm going to go Cowboys.
34:55And if they do win, it's going to be close.
34:57I think the Cowboys cover.
34:59I'm taking the Cowboys as well.
35:01Last game, Lions at
35:03Niners.
35:05They are officially eliminated.
35:07Niners have this crazy, I don't know if you saw,
35:09I have this crazy stat.
35:11The San Francisco
35:1349ers in the last 22
35:15years, there have been
35:17two outcomes, and there's
35:19only two. They either do not make the
35:21playoffs or they get to at least the
35:23NFC Championship game. That's it.
35:25So that streak continues.
35:27They did not make the playoffs.
35:29It's crazy though. Anytime
35:31they're in the playoffs, they're at least in the
35:33championship game. But the Niners are
35:35dead. Now it's just how much you're going to pay Brock
35:37Purdy. Lions,
35:39I feel like this is going to be
35:41a circled
35:43game for Dan Campbell because
35:45they lost to him last year and they still got to
35:47try to get this one seed. So I'll take the Lions
35:49here. We're aligned on
35:51the majority of picks this week. I like the Lions
35:53too. I think you're
35:55spot on with the Niners. I think
35:57they're just not that
35:59team that we thought they would be this year. And the
36:01Sioux, as many
36:03injuries that they've had, and Campbell,
36:05we talked about him on the radio
36:07show a couple weeks ago, and just
36:09having that fire to him. That's the guy.
36:11He's just a leader of men. He's
36:13everything you'd want. And everybody on that roster
36:15from top to bottom, they're all about
36:17the next man up mentality, the creativity
36:19with Coach Ben Johnson.
36:21It's just, I like the Lions
36:23man. They're going to find a way. They're going to find
36:25a way. They are. Yeah, that
36:27Ben Johnson play, that was so mean. And then I got
36:29a big guide by Jared Goff after. That was
36:31tough. That was one too.
36:33I've seen a couple takes on the Internet.
36:35It's like, why show a play like
36:37that against the Bears
36:39when you're up two scores?
36:41I want to say it was Peter Schrager
36:43might have had a tweet saying, you think it's Ben
36:45Johnson showing off for the Bears
36:47in front of that organization?
36:49Maybe. Also,
36:51what's the hurt in doing
36:53it? Because
36:55now it's just another thing you've got
36:57to prepare for. I think Ben Johnson's bag is so
36:59deep, it doesn't matter.
37:01You put that on tape.
37:03Yeah, I guess
37:05maybe you can't trick someone, but now the defense
37:07always has to think about that.
37:09Jared Goff looks like he's stumbling.
37:11It's actually
37:13a great thing to put on tape because
37:15now you're second-guessing everything you see in
37:17the backfield. Yeah. No,
37:19that's a good point. Everybody
37:21defensively in that defensive room is on high alert
37:23like, hey, we're in man-to-man. Don't even
37:25worry about somebody tripping and falling in the backfield.
37:27That'll be the D-line's job. Right,
37:29because think about it. How many times
37:31in a game, it happens
37:33probably at least once a game where the
37:35quarterback's feet, they might
37:37not fully trip, but their feet get
37:39tangled up and they have a little awkward delivery
37:41towards the running back.
37:43Every single time that happens
37:45now, you're going to think that that might be the trick
37:47play. It's a genius one to put
37:49out there. Yeah, we were talking
37:51earlier and Taylor brought up that
37:53the Packers, it was a play that happened
37:55against the Packers where Jordan Love
37:57actually stumbled the ball against the Bears.
37:59Then they just see it on film
38:01so they just recreate the exact same play.
38:03Did you see the text
38:05that Jared sent me?
38:07Yeah, I heard about it.
38:09Big guy's bad.
38:11It's okay, big guy.
38:13He did say next year's the
38:15year, so maybe Ben Johnson told
38:17him he's going to the Bears.
38:19Maybe.
38:21Who do you want?
38:23Ben Johnson.
38:25It's a 1A, 1B.
38:27Vrabel's 1B, so it's not
38:29like if Vrabel's
38:31the Bears coach, I'm just as
38:33excited. It's just like if you had
38:35to pick one or the other,
38:37I would go with Ben Johnson just because
38:39of the offensive
38:41getting someone with Caleb
38:43and being like, this is your guy.
38:45Also, shout out
38:47the boy Mike Vrabel because
38:49I think he's been linked to 17
38:51jobs. It feels like he can pick
38:53whatever he wants.
38:55It's crazy. Raiders.
38:57Raiders. Bears.
38:59Patriots who still have
39:01a coach. Giants.
39:03Jets.
39:05Ohio State.
39:07Good for
39:09him.
39:11What would you do if the Bears went with
39:13the OC from
39:15the Bucs? Was it Liam Cohen?
39:17That's probably who they're going to end up getting,
39:19so I'll just be like, oh, this is going to work.
39:21This is my top pick. I always wanted him.
39:23That's
39:25exactly what I'm going to do.
39:27I might just do that. I might just start
39:29tweeting just random names
39:31of OCs being like, this person's
39:33my top pick, so that way I can be like,
39:35hey, see, told you guys.
39:371A and 1B, just start talking about
39:39everybody outside of those.
39:41I'm going to compile a list and just tweet
39:43all of the names, so that way I can be like, look,
39:451A, and then I'll delete all the other ones.
39:47All right.
39:49Hot takes. You got a hot take?
39:51Give me
39:53Russell Wilson thrown for over
39:55300 yards against the Chiefs.
39:57Oh, I like that. I like that.
39:59I like that.
40:01Yeah.
40:03Over 300 yards against the Chiefs. Chiefs
40:05secondary's not great.
40:07Chiefs secondary's not great.
40:09Give
40:11me
40:13give me Bo Nix to
40:15throw two interceptions against a bad
40:17Bengals defense.
40:19God damn, you're going with
40:21a negative one. All right, fine. I'm not going to go negative
40:23one. You're right, because listen, I'm struggling as
40:25a believer right now, but we all go through our struggles.
40:27Yeah.
40:29Oh, give me
40:31give me.
40:33You know what? I'll say what I just said
40:35earlier. Vikings are going to get the
40:37one seed. I think Vikings are going to beat the Packers,
40:39and then the Vikings are going to beat the Lions. Vikings are going to
40:41get the one seed. And everyone's like, how the
40:43fuck did this happen? I thought the Lions were the one
40:45seed. Makes no sense.
40:47There'll be a game next week.
40:49Yeah, yeah, it would be incredible.
40:51Okay, Survivor Pool.
40:53So I technically have not advanced
40:55yet because I have Green Bay, but they're going to
40:57win.
40:59Fred Smoot picked the Chiefs for you,
41:01which we were
41:03laughing because we're like, Will would never pick
41:05the Chiefs,
41:07but he won for you.
41:09Jerry advanced the Lions.
41:11What is Jerry's pick?
41:13Steelers.
41:15Steelers. Jerry's picking the Steelers
41:17against the Chiefs. Will, you
41:19can pick.
41:21Wait, did my Chiefs pick it used up
41:23because I put, what did I say, Tom?
41:25Atlanta?
41:27Which one do you want?
41:29I'll go ahead and have that one as my
41:31Chiefs pick. I want to go Detroit.
41:33Alright, so you're taking Detroit this week?
41:35Yeah.
41:37Alright, I got to figure out who I'm going to
41:39use.
41:41You know what? I'll take
41:43Indianapolis against the Giants.
41:45Yeah, they're not
41:47going to lose, right?
41:49They won't lose that game.
41:51I like that pick.
41:53Okay, any other
41:55last thoughts?
41:57Good talking ball.
41:59Yeah, let's win
42:01them all. It's a big week for us.
42:03This is going to be a disaster, Will.
42:05I think we're really
42:07dialed in on this one. I think anybody
42:09who's out there listening to us talk this ball to,
42:11we're serving them up on a silver
42:13platter for you. This is a Merry Christmas
42:15you're going to love. When I tape PMT
42:17on Thursday night,
42:19I'm going to just be talking out of
42:21both sides of my mouth.
42:23Every game is just going to be a different thought
42:25after I actually have a chance to look at all
42:27of them and dig into them and be like,
42:29wow, that was stupid.
42:31Honestly, just
42:33take them all or don't take any.
42:35Either take all my picks or
42:37reverse them all. Just do one
42:39or the other.
42:41It's going to be
42:43a 5-11
42:45or 11-5 type of week.
42:47Yeah, lopsided one way or the other.
42:51Thanks, Will. Merry Christmas.
42:53Merry Christmas, everybody.