Alistair, David and Alex look back at the year in politics
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00:00The Steamy, a politics podcast from The Scotsman.
00:11Hello and welcome to a special festive edition of The Steamy because nothing says Christmas
00:16like listening to a podcast about Scottish politics. I'm Alistair Grant, the political
00:20editor of The Scotsman and today I'm joined by David Ball, the Scotsman's deputy political
00:25editor and by Alexander Brown, The Scotsman's Westminster correspondent and this week we're
00:29going to be discussing our highlights and lowlights of 2024 as well as making some bold
00:35predictions about what the coming 12 months might bring. Will the Scottish budget pass or will we
00:40be heading for a snap Holyrood election? Will Scottish Labour be able to regain the momentum
00:45after a difficult few months for the party, largely driven by events down south? And will
00:51John Swinney manage to end next year with the SNP heading for another election victory
00:57in the Scottish Parliament? We'll discuss all that and more but Alex, Merry Christmas I should say
01:03first and foremost. I'm sitting here with some classic MSP Christmas cards around me trying to
01:08get into the festive spirit. What has been your highlight of this year? Well it's difficult
01:16because obviously sometimes highlights like oh that's actually good policy, that's a good thing
01:21to happen but also things are just very funny and I really don't think there's been a funnier
01:28and more profound moment that also like had a huge impact on our politics than Rishi Sunak
01:34leaving the D-Day commemorations early. I think it was like this most, in what was a disastrous
01:41decision to have an election, a pretty disastrous campaign and just one of the least charismatic
01:47people, you know, out there against one of the least charismatic people. It was just a dreadful
01:53campaign and the idea that a Conservative could leave that to do a TV interview with Paul Brand,
01:58it was unbelievable and I think it also meant it was that first moment where we knew
02:02having covered the Conservatives for however many years it's been, I mean for me I've been in the
02:06lobby for about six years I think but the Tory's been in power for more than a decade, I think it
02:12was like oh we're gonna, we will be writing about something different, this is that moment. I think
02:16it was just really seismic in its importance and also just really really funny because it was so
02:23so stupid. And what about you David, if you look back at the year in Scottish politics, I mean
02:30there's quite a lot of highlights and lowlights to pick from but what is your, what's your highlight,
02:34what do you look back on as the kind of big moment of the year? Well it's probably the Scottish
02:38Parliament's version of that which was Humza Yousaf completely getting it wrong over the Greens and
02:45ending his time in office. I mean it was just, it was one day, I remember it was a Thursday because
02:50everyone was in Holyrood where he dumped the Greens out of government in the morning and by lunchtime
02:55he was, they were basically holding the gun to his head threatening him to kick him out of office
02:59and it was really that moment when it dawned on him when I think it was Douglas Ross at FMQs,
03:05raised the prospect of a vote of no confidence and it's as if he hadn't thought that the Greens
03:09might be a bit annoyed at him and might vote against it. And then into the Friday he carried
03:15on, he went to some job in in Dundee promising housing funding I think it was at the time and
03:21by the weekend it was it was pretty much over. So it was just, it was an absolute cataclysmic
03:27couple of days for him and it just summed up his poor sort of tenure in charge of the Scottish
03:32government. Yeah I have to agree, you can't really see past Humza Yousaf's spectacular
03:37omen goal back in April by ending the Bute House Agreement. I mean it had everything,
03:41it had kind of drama, hubris, kind of twists and turns. I was actually at that press event
03:46in Dundee on the Friday, the day after he'd announced the end of the Bute House Agreement
03:50when he insisted he wasn't going to resign, he was going to fight on and a couple of days later
03:55he was gone. But I have to say, at the time I felt slightly sorry for him, I still do,
04:01because I think he was facing a tough situation both within his own party and kind of outside
04:06the party when it came to that relationship with the Greens. There was a sense that things
04:10were drawing to a close. I think it could only ever realistically have ended in a kind of messy
04:15divorce. I don't think you're ever really going to be able to break that kind of cooperation
04:19agreement in a way that both sides are going to be completely happy with. Having said that,
04:24I think we can all agree he didn't handle it particularly well. It seems like he handled it
04:29pretty disastrously, to be honest. I think he would say that himself that there were flaws in
04:32how he did it. But, you know, it's very easy to be a kind of armchair critic, looking at things
04:38in retrospect. Much harder to be the person who's actually making these decisions and coping with
04:43the ensuing chaos. And speaking of chaos, Alex, what is your low light? What's the lowest point
04:50for you when it comes to UK and Scottish politics over the last 12 months?
04:55Well, I think my low light is a bit more serious. But I think before I get to that,
04:58I do like that all of our best moments were politicians making a really bad decision.
05:05It wasn't like this policy that's passed through the heart of Parliament. It's going to fundamentally
05:11change lives. Great crossbar. I saw a speech and it really was one of those days where it showed
05:15the best of Parliament. I'm glad that we've all gone for it. You're not going to believe what
05:19they've done. That's good. My low light, it's actually quite recent. And I think it's kind of
05:26been ignored a bit because it seems like it's maybe a normalisation of something that shouldn't
05:32be normalised. I think it was Keir Starmer's speech about two weeks before we were recording
05:38where he talked about immigration. And he said that the Tories use Brexit as an excuse to run
05:45a scientific experiment into open borders. Basically, Brexit was an excuse to just let
05:52people come in. Now, obviously, that's nonsense. We saw this from the Rwanda plan. We know the
05:59Tories tried to have a really hardline stance on immigration. But I think why that's my low
06:05light is the reaction to it. It's kind of been blinked at by many in the media, but also shared
06:13by Andrew Yackley-Lennon, Tommy Robinson, as his stage name, as essentially saying,
06:19we were right all along. Now, I think the Labour Party has to have a tougher stance. And I think
06:24many progressives would like, and many in this own party would like on immigration, because
06:30it's maybe where the public are. But I think it speaks to, if not a cowardice, but like a failure
06:37to confront the issue properly, and kind of talk about the fact that, well, these are people coming
06:42here, and we're going to have tougher borders to keep out criminals, but to let people come here
06:46who need to, like we have for Ukraine, and like we have to an extent with Afghanistan. So I think
06:51that rhetoric was really dangerous. I think coming so soon after the riots, I mean, it was only a
06:57couple of months ago, there were race riots on the streets of Britain, and people burning down
07:01a hotel with migrants in. And I think that a prime minister saying the Tories deliberately
07:06had an experiment on open borders, is just so, so irresponsible. And not what you'd expect to hear
07:13from the leader of any party in Britain, let alone, you know, the so called left wing progressives. So
07:19not as many laughs as my first answer. But I do think that was probably, that was a real low
07:25moment. And I think many MPs actually who I've spoken to feel the same. They were really shocked
07:29by it. Yeah, yeah. Great. I see this issue there. It's Stephen you actually learned, isn't it?
07:35It was Stephen. I can't remember. It's like, you know, it's like knowing Spiderman, but not
07:39remembering who Peter Parker is. And David, what about you? What's your kind of your lowest moment?
07:47Yeah, I do agree with Alex, actually, on the rhetoric from Labour on immigration is quite
07:52bizarre to hear. I do think we're going to hear a lot about reform in the next year. And I do think
07:57this is maybe the start of a bit of a downward spiral for Labour. But at Holyrood, I think there's
08:02just been a lot of focus on infighting and politics rather than getting things done. We
08:08also had the Michael Matheson thing in February, which feels like an age ago now. Obviously,
08:14he resigned eventually. It was just the way that it was kind of covered up and lied about.
08:20But I really do think it's just been a focus at Holyrood on sort of infighting and internal
08:25politics. We had the Stephen Flynn thing recently about him trying to come here,
08:30which obviously backfired completely. And just very little actually getting done at Holyrood.
08:35There's been very little big pieces of legislation that have come through and have actually made a
08:40difference, really. I know we've obviously had an election in the middle of that and a new First
08:44Minister. There's been a lot of disruption, I think, and just it's been a bit flat. Even if
08:49you look at FMQs, there's been very few times in recent months where something's been said at FMQs
08:56and people have actually paid attention to it. So I think Holyrood's just run a little bit flat,
09:01to be honest. Yeah, of course, the Michael Matheson saga I think is a good example here,
09:07something that straddled the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. I think in May he was handed
09:13that record ban from Holyrood for breaching Holyrood's expenses policy. Fair to say I think
09:21that's a row as well that has really cut through, as you say, in politics. It's something that even
09:25people who don't follow the ins and outs of the Scottish Parliament, they know about it. I think
09:30it's something that was potentially quite damaging for the SNP. Having said that, what you're
09:35saying about infighting, we should say as journalists that we welcome infighting. We welcome some party
09:41rows. It's always good. I wouldn't really put that as a low light. I think my own low light,
09:46and I was saying this to you earlier, David, and I did pick this off the top of my head this morning,
09:50but it relates to the row over Neil Gray's use of ministerial cars. Now Neil Gray is obviously the
09:57current health secretary. He apologised in November for giving the impression of acting
10:02more as a fan and less as a minister after he was driven to Aberdeen football games in a ministerial
10:08car. He's an Aberdeen fan. But it later emerged that he'd also been driven to and from the UK
10:15premiere of The Outrun, the film, at the Edinburgh Film Festival back in August with his wife Carly.
10:22My particular low light is John Swinney's defence of why Neil Gray was at this event,
10:28given it didn't relate to his portfolio, you would think. He's the health secretary. Why is
10:32he going to a film premiere? Angus Robertson, the culture secretary, was already at the event.
10:39Mr Swinney was asked by journalists what Neil Gray added to this. Why was he there? He said
10:45he was attending a film which is addressing the issues of drug addiction, alcohol addiction and
10:49mental health and well-being, and therefore relevant to his portfolio interests as a cabinet
10:54secretary for health. The Tories call this defence desperate and absurd, and I think it's pretty hard
10:59to disagree with them. It's just one of the most ridiculous defences I think we've had in the
11:05Scottish Parliament recently. I think using that logic you could really have ministers going to
11:09any film premiere they want, since it was a film about crime in the justice secretary's portfolio.
11:17I think it was just, it's the thing that really made that row ridiculous for me anyway.
11:24Moving on to predictions for next year, and I suppose the stuff we can get flagrantly wrong
11:30going into the next 12 months. Alex, I wondered what your predictions are in terms of
11:37the coming 12 months for UK politics, but also in particular whether you think that
11:43Scottish Labour will continue to be hit and impacted by decisions made by UK Labour
11:48and Keir Starmer, or whether they'll be able to start turning the narrative around a bit.
11:54Well I think there's obviously lots of things at play here, and I'm glad to come to me first
11:57for predictions. So I could say loads of ridiculous things, and you can have really
12:03informed suggestions based on the conversations with people in Holyrood. I think that the SMP
12:08will be in a lot more trouble than we expect. I think that Stephen Flynn and at least two of his
12:13colleagues are seriously considering standing down from Westminster to run for Holyrood,
12:19in which case they'll be by-elections, they might not win them, and then there's a whole debate
12:24around what is the point of having the SMP in Westminster if their number are so greatly
12:28reduced. I think it's worth remembering Stephen Flynn only held on to his seat by, you know,
12:33just a few votes, and the briefing was at the time they thought he was going to lose. There
12:38were conversations I was having at one or two in the morning election night, and they thought he
12:43was gone, they thought it was over, and it was a real surprise that those votes came back so late
12:48in the morning to kind of save him. So I think that's a really big thing, I think it really leads
12:53the party in Westminster facing existential questions, and it creates more infighting in
12:58the SMP, because they're not the only ones. Lots of former MPs will be looking at Holyrood, and I
13:03think one of the big fights will be the SMP fighting each other over who can get on, who can
13:08get selected to run for Holyrood. I think selection routes will be the huge thing going forward.
13:13We saw that was an issue for Scottish Labour ahead of this, ahead of the previous election,
13:18where obviously there were some bad tweets by one of the Scottish Labour candidates,
13:22who I think then was replaced by someone who was incredibly well qualified, but at the time it
13:26seemed like a huge problem for Scottish Labour. So I think that's one issue for the SMP. Scottish
13:32Labour, I mean, it's such a cop-out answer. I think either it's going to go really well,
13:37or it's going to come through ahead. We're in a position where you have several ministers,
13:44you know, with Scotland at the heart of government, and Brand Scotland, who will
13:49find themselves voting for things that is UK government policy, but not the policy of Scottish
13:54Labour, and that's problematic. And it's whether the party can make a narrative that this is just
14:00how devolution works, this is showing devolution practice, the SMP don't believe in it, so what
14:03they're doing is right. I think that's a really difficult argument to make, but I think where
14:09Scottish Labour find comfort and feel actually more optimistic about the year ahead, is that
14:15the SMP have another year of government. And they think stats on NHS waiting times,
14:20they think stats on education are coming not that late in the year actually, I think fairly early
14:25on education, and they think that both of those, along with others around the economy, are going
14:30to show that despite a little bump in the budget, the years of SMP government has not delivered to
14:37Scotland and has made education, health and transport worse, and it will look inferior
14:43compared to the services available in England. So I think that narrative will be where we see
14:49Scottish Labour. So I think as I say out loud and talking myself into it, see somewhat of a
14:55Scottish Labour resurgent in the polls, because I just think the SMP will have infighting,
15:01I think they will have problems in terms of their actual delivery, because you know,
15:07the budget's done, it's what have you done for me lately? And I think it's a lot easier to forget
15:12the most recent thing that's happened when you look at the broader picture and go, well actually,
15:16has this been good? I think Scottish Labour would say they're pretty confident it won't be.
15:22And the only other thing is, I don't think that Ed Davey's single is going to be number one,
15:26so I don't think we will be getting, and I say this with a heavy heart,
15:30the Nick Clegg, Kylo Ren, Jephson music video.
15:35It's interesting to hear you say your kind of predictions here, because there's a narrative
15:39building in Holyrood that John Swinney has steadied the SMP ship, that he's doing pretty
15:45well, that the reaction to the Scottish budget as reactions to budgets go wasn't that bad,
15:52that it was quite a well-received budget. Obviously it has its critics, but it's not
15:58gone anywhere near as badly as some more recent budgets, and there's just kind of this perception
16:03that actually the SMP, everyone thought that at the time of the general election in July,
16:08that they'd been reduced to nine MPs, everyone thought that they were on the way out,
16:13that Anas Sarwar would be the next First Minister of Scotland, and there's a kind of perception
16:18building in Holyrood that that might not actually happen, and the SMP might be on course for a
16:24victory again in 2026, or at least it's not going to be simple for Scottish Labour in the way they
16:29might have imagined it in the summer. Yeah, and I don't think that's wrong. I think that is,
16:34if you were looking at things now in isolation, you'd go that's where the party is,
16:38and Scottish Labour MPs are increasingly frustrated, and privately are not happy with
16:44Starmer. They think that Downing Street has made their job harder, and has made decisions that
16:49repeatedly undermine them, and not just them, but the party as a whole, and the government as a
16:55whole. I think if you look at the pensions, you look at, sorry, you look at inheritance tax,
17:02and you look at going out to farmers, these are problematic things, and winter fuel,
17:07that those policies are things that are going to frustrate people. Those are things that are going
17:10to make it look like the Labour government is uncaring, and then you have the Waspid women
17:15thing, and I think you can not support the Waspid women. I think that's a perfectly valid argument
17:19to make when it comes to the cost of it, but the problem arises when you've said that you will
17:24for so long, and so I think there is a real issue for Labour in terms of their messaging,
17:29because they're saying, you know, we're not going to do this, we're not going to do that,
17:33and that cuts through, rather than say, some of the genuinely radical things they've done
17:39around, you know, the biggest revolution in workers' rights for a generation,
17:42the biggest devolution settlement for a generation, increased minimum wage,
17:49this green industrial plan that is coming, and GB Energy, which in theory should change things,
17:54a VAT exemption for private school going, that is a really left-wing policy that you'd expect
17:57from Corbyn, and it's to fund better education for, you know, the working class people, people
18:04who have to go to state schools, for people who don't have the option of that privileged
18:08and ludicrously expensive concept of private schools. Those are things that Labour MPs think,
18:12well, that's quite, that's a success, why are we not talking about that? And instead, it's been
18:17a policy that goes after, you know, the vulnerable, or it's been Sue Gray, and it's just been, you
18:22know, smoking in pubs. They have failed completely to get in charge of the narrative, and I think
18:27Scottish Labour MPs recognise that, and are trying to change that. They are becoming more organised
18:32in their messaging, and trying to talk to each other a bit more, to arrange what they have to
18:38convey, and what they can show what Scottish Labour are doing in Westminster. So everything
18:42you say is valid. I think Scottish Labour MPs recognise that, and I'm hopeful, but also very
18:49angry at Keir. They feel like they're having to clean up his mess, rather than Downing Street's
18:52going to clear it up for them. Yeah. What about you, David? What's your predictions for the coming
18:57year? Do you think the Scottish budget is going to get passed? Do you think John Swinney will be
19:02going into the end of 2025 pretty happy, ahead of the Holyrood election? What do you think is going
19:06to happen? Yeah, actually, I do. I think the budget will get passed. I do think we're going
19:12to have a snap election, which is pretty much music to my ears, because it's the last thing we
19:17kind of need. I do think, although the SNP, as Alex mentioned, are going to be a bit of a mess
19:21at Westminster, I do think they will start putting some momentum in Holyrood. We've already
19:28seen, as you mentioned, the polls kind of stabilising, and they're basically neck and neck with
19:33Labour. And I think there'll be more stuff for Labour to deal with at Westminster that's just
19:36going to add pressure to Anas Sarwar. And by the end of the year, as long as this is the thing, it's all
19:42in the SNP's hands. They need to start delivering on some of these policy things. Alex mentioned
19:46their record is their biggest kind of problem, and if they don't start actually delivering on
19:51some of this, particularly by the end of sort of next year, then people are just going to think, well,
19:56we've had enough of this, and Labour are the only alternative. I do think Scottish Labour
20:00are being a little bit complacent about their kind of support, which was kind of over from the
20:06election. There was one Labour insider last week saying that they were basically lent a lot of
20:12support during the general election from other unionists, and that is what's ebbed away at the
20:16moment, because they're a bit annoyed at Labour, and they're confident that will come back at the
20:21Hollywood election if there's basically an opportunity to get rid of the SNP. But I mean,
20:25that is asking a lot and making a lot of assumptions on the electorate, really. So I mean, who knows
20:33who'll be ahead, but I think either the SNP or Labour will be pretty neck and neck, and that
20:38will suit the SNP more than Labour, given the situation we were looking at in the summer.
20:44But there's lots of other things that could upset that, I guess. We still haven't heard
20:47back from Operation Branch Form. We don't know what that's going to throw up for the SNP.
20:52We would think we'd hear back from that next year, but I mean, you never know at this rate.
20:56So I think John Swinney will be going into Christmas pretty happy with how things are
21:02looking compared to where they were when he took over. He has kind of steadied the ship,
21:06and it will just be trying to tick away at some of that Labour support. Scottish Labour have
21:11got their conference in February, and they really need that to be a kind of momentum builder ahead
21:16of the year, because if it is a bit flat and people kind of lose a bit of faith, then it makes
21:21it a lot more easier for the SNP to take advantage. Yeah, yeah, I mean, I totally agree. I think the
21:27Scottish budget will be passed. I don't think, you know, snap election was always quite unlikely. I
21:32don't think we're going to go down that route. I think the Lib Dems will back the budget. I don't
21:37even think they will abstain. I think they will actually back it, or at least some of them will,
21:43because I think if you abstain, you potentially don't get as much spending as you might get if
21:48you back it. And I just think they're the most likely party. I can't really see the Greens
21:51backing it, but who knows? I could be completely wrong. You touched there on what I think is
21:57probably the biggest grenade, potential grenade next year in Scottish politics, Operation Branch
22:02Form. We don't know what's going to happen there. We don't know anything about when it's going to
22:07finish, what could happen next. It's just a complete unknown. I think the other unknown is
22:12the impact of a Trump presidency, both in terms of any potential tariffs he introduces, the impact
22:18that has on the Scottish whiskey industry, but also in terms of a visit. You know, if he comes
22:22over to Scotland, he comes over to the UK and visits Scotland as part of that, Scottish politicians
22:27are going to have to deal with that. And I think it's a bit of a minefield for them. How do they
22:32deal with that? How does John Swinney deal with that? Does he meet him? Does he not? Does Trump
22:36even care about meeting the First Minister of Scotland? Probably not. I don't know. But I wanted
22:41to touch on just one other thing, I guess, which is the potential rise of reform in Scotland. We
22:47know they've been polling quite well, you know, comparatively. Some polls have them picking up
22:53maybe a dozen seats in Holyrood in 2026. That would be a complete game changer in terms of
22:59Holyrood politics. It would be a massive blow to the Tories, where they'd be taking a lot of seats
23:04from them. It would just change the dynamics so much. Alex, I know this has obviously been a big
23:10thing UK-wide as well, but I wondered what you thought about this for Scotland, because I guess
23:14the risk is that reform is such an unknown that they could implode, you know, they could have some
23:20kind of scandals with candidates. I'm not saying they will, I'm saying they could. It just seems
23:25like they could either come in and really change Scottish politics in a way, or they, you know,
23:29we've got 17 months, whatever it is, until the Holyrood election. There's a lot of time for them,
23:35things to go wrong for them too. I think the prospect of reform imploding implies that the
23:42normal rules of politics applies to them. I just don't think it does. I think we have seen, whether
23:47it be the various formations of UKIP, the Brexit Party and now Reform, they're just, with a movement
23:54like that, there will always be some elements that are completely unacceptable and the party
24:01will just get away with. I mean, you know, we talk about inner fighting in the SNP or the Labour Party.
24:07Nigel Farage basically told the head of the party, you know, the chair, I think he had to quit so that
24:11someone else could take over and then he could make himself leader. That's just fine, it's Nigel
24:15Farage show. He's made £302,000 from a second income, but it's fine, it's the Nigel Farage show.
24:22I think that they are a real factor and I remember one savvy observer writing that they would be a
24:28huge factor in the Westminster elections and then they cost Douglas Ross his seat, so always worth
24:32reading the Scotsman. I don't want to mention who, I'm not that sort of person, but they're really
24:39rising and I think they will continue to do so. They now have a press person who covers Scotland,
24:45who is available 24-7 and replies quickly and that was always the thing with them. They were,
24:51if you wanted something from reform with their previous head of press, they would just do it,
24:55they would just find a way because they wanted the coverage and that sort of off the wall,
25:01breaking the normal conventions, normal code of conduct, it's just how they are and I think we
25:06also have to recognise that I think they met with, the Treasurer met with Elon Musk just shortly
25:11before recording and we saw one report that said he was going to give them £20 million. So,
25:17at the same time, we see the shadow Treasury of the Tories Secretary saying, oh well, you know,
25:22consider your options. We essentially have two right-wing parties begging the social media guru
25:27to give them some money and that money can make a huge difference. All it takes is a lot of
25:32investment in a seat and suddenly you've got, you can make yourself, you can get on the list, you can
25:37build a branch and attract people and that membership is growing. They've already got
25:41councillors, that's come out of nowhere, that's from defections, so I think they're definitely
25:45going to win seats in Holyrood. I would be stunned if they didn't, if they carry on on this trajectory
25:50but I also think they're really going to threaten the Tories. I think there'll be a much bigger
25:53factor in the Holyrood elections than maybe we had anticipated even six months ago and I think
26:00you can see that by the fact the First Minister is now speaking about it and saying we need to
26:03combat them, we're going to do that by coming up with solutions and addressing the concerns of
26:08the people. Well, the main people who vote Reform have one big concern and the SNP will not be
26:14addressing that because that's not, in theory, the party they want to be. So I think it's going to
26:19really blow up and I think it continues to be this huge issue, as David mentioned, that parties
26:24don't know how to respond to them, they don't know how to engage with their concerns.
26:29Yeah, I mean David, it's already kind of had an impact on Scottish politics in a way you can see
26:32with some of the concerns the Tories have been bringing up, this kind of pitch that they
26:38have now that they're kind of speaking up for common sense, Scotland, you know what, people who
26:43are sick and tired of the left-wing Holyrood bubble. I mean Russell Finlay would just say that
26:47he is trying to address, you know, the man or woman in the street who he would say has common
26:53sense and is kind of sick of politicians but it also seems that he's very much trying to speak
26:58to those people who are quite tempted by Reform. Yeah, I mean some of it has looked quite desperate
27:04though, I mean him attacking the free bus travel for asylum seekers was a particular low point, I
27:09think, for Russell Finlay trying to kind of respond to Reform. He's not going to be able to out-reform
27:14Reform, so I mean that is one for Russell Finlay to think about how he does go about that. If
27:21there's a lot of people who are going to vote for Reform taken away from the Tories, how does he
27:25respond to that in a sensible way that doesn't lose that core vote who could easily go to Labour
27:31as they did in the general election. Reform are going to have a huge part to play in the 2026
27:36election. They could even cost John Swinney his job essentially because if they do get, say, 12
27:42MSPs as they are on course, a lot of those will be on the list, possibly at the expense of the Greens,
27:48and I think Reform have already said if it came to it they were back, Anna Sauer becoming First
27:53Minister over John Swinney, so if we have a very tight election race and vote for First Minister
27:59they could actually become quite important and play a big role in ending the SNP leadership.
28:05Obviously this is if they don't implode as they are kind of prone to or at risk of doing, but
28:12as things stand and if the parties don't respond properly then they're going to have a huge role
28:17and next year will just be about them building that momentum, as Alex mentioned, potentially
28:21with a lot of money behind them. Yeah, well there you have it. We've made some bold predictions,
28:28some of them will no doubt be proved to be completely wrong, but we've said what we think.
28:34Events have a habit of getting in the way and changing things, but thank you very much for
28:39listening to this week's episode of The Steamy and if you've listened to other episodes this year
28:43thank you very much for doing that as well. We'll be back next year for all the latest Scottish
28:47political news and analysis, but until then please stay tuned to the Scotsman's website. We'll be on
28:53over the festive period bringing you all the latest stuff that's happening as well as interesting
28:58features, all the usual stuff you'd expect, but have a very merry Christmas and a happy new year
29:04and thanks again for listening. The Steamy, a politics podcast from the Scotsman.