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00:00Since the fall of Assad, Western capitals have been voicing concern about the risk of
00:09Islamic State militants exploiting the political vacuum in Syria.
00:14Earlier today, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the role of American-backed Kurdish-led
00:20forces was critical to preventing a resurgence of ISIS jihadists.
00:25Thousands of former militants are currently being detained in prisons and camps controlled
00:29by Kurdish fighters.
00:30Emily Boyle has more.
00:38As the dust settles after the fall of the Assad regime, a new front has opened up in
00:44northeastern Syria, where Turkish-backed rebels of the Syrian National Army have made the
00:49most of the instability in the region and have attacked and seized towns previously
00:54under Kurdish control.
00:58There are major concerns among the Kurds, alongside the fact that the Turkish state
01:02supports these factions and backs this project, exerting pressure for its expansion in these
01:08areas.
01:10Turkey also has factions fighting battles to this day in Manbij and Kobani, all of which
01:14align with the same context we're discussing.
01:21Kurdish and Arab units fighting under the banner of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic
01:25Forces have been forced to pause their efforts against the jihadist group to concentrate
01:30on Turkish-backed attacks, prompting fears of a resurgence of the terrorist organisation
01:36in the region.
01:37Indeed, we can definitely see that Daesh has become stronger, especially in the Syrian
01:43desert.
01:44They were hiding before, but now they are operating openly on the ground.
01:49A few days ago, they killed three of our comrades in Nasraka.
01:54We know that their plan is to attack Jeveran prison and Al-Hol camp.
02:01The Al-Hol camp has been called an incubator for the return of the Islamic State.
02:07Approximately 50,000 former IS fighters, women and children are detained in prisons and camps
02:13controlled by the Kurds, mostly from Iraq and Syria.
02:16We want to avoid sparking any kinds of additional conflicts inside of Syria at a time when we
02:23want to see this transition to an interim government and to a better way forward for
02:28Syria.
02:29And part of that also has to be ensuring that ISIS doesn't rear its ugly head again.
02:35And critical to making sure that doesn't happen is the so-called SDF, the Syrian Democratic
02:40Forces that we've been supporting.
02:43Turkey has repeatedly argued that the SDF are linked to independence movements in its
02:48own country.
02:50Syria's Kurdish groups say they want to be an autonomous part of Syria, though their
02:54relationship with the new leaders in Damascus remains unclear.
03:00To discuss all of this, we're joined now by Matt Broomfield, he's a freelance journalist
03:04and also the co-founder of the Syria-based Rojava Information Centre.
03:09Thanks so much for being with us, Matt.
03:11Firstly, lots of fears here in Europe about the resurgence of Islamic State potentially.
03:18There are warnings today that they are starting to take advantage of the chaos on the ground
03:23in Syria.
03:24What is the actual situation as far as you're aware?
03:27Well, I mean, I think Syrian Kurdish leaders and officials are rightfully going to be quite
03:32frustrated because they've been warning about this situation for years and years.
03:36They've been reminding their Western partners there are still these 50,000 ISIS-linked individuals,
03:41including maybe 1,000 Western male former armed fighters and around 10,000 former armed
03:46fighters from Iraq and Syria.
03:48They haven't gone anywhere.
03:49They've been calling on the West to repatriate their own nationals, but even more importantly,
03:53to call on Turkey to refrain from its attacks on the region, which have repeatedly caused
03:59such destabilization and allowed ISIS to continue rebuilding and regrouping.
04:05And now all those warnings are coming to fruition.
04:09The particular threat comes from these camps, but there is also an increase of ISIS activity
04:13in the Syrian desert that's been detected just in the past week as well.
04:16And in those camps, it's not just former fighters, there's also women.
04:19There are a lot of children.
04:21What do you think is going to happen to them?
04:23Well, that's right.
04:26I mean, I think there's understandably perhaps a particular focus in the West on the Western
04:32nationals, the British nationals, the French nationals, the European nationals who are
04:35held there.
04:37That's an issue.
04:38But there are, of course, also tens of thousands of local children there.
04:43Most of the people in this main camp, Al-Hol, are under the age of 16.
04:47And of course, on the one hand, they're going to face the same fate as millions of other
04:51people across this autonomous Kurdish-led region of Turkey invades, which is airstrikes,
04:57displacement, chaos.
04:58But of course, in their case, there is the further extremely high likelihood that the
05:03very, very radicalized male and female ISIS leaders who are being held there will be able
05:08to do what they've been threatening and escape and begin rebuilding their caliphate, or perhaps
05:14more likely sowing more chaos in an uncertain and increasingly militarized future for Syria.
05:20And Matt, this week we've seen a lot of focus on the new government, interim leaders appointed
05:25in Syria about the situation for asylum seekers and would-be asylum seekers.
05:31But there are also clashes still happening on the ground in parts of Syria.
05:35Talk to us a little bit about what exactly is happening and where.
05:39That's right.
05:40Yeah, I mean, it's a real tragedy because the Syrian people deserve peace.
05:43They deserve a chance to build a new Syria.
05:45And most people in Syria and indeed most armed and political forces in Syria want that.
05:51The Kurdish-led administration has expressed its willingness to work with the new leadership
05:56in Damascus.
05:57There have been some indications of restraint between HTS, who've now taken over in Damascus
06:03and the Kurdish-led forces.
06:05There are negotiations indirectly underway through the Americans.
06:08And the vision there in theory would be for a sort of pan-Syrian, some kind of pan-Syrian
06:13agreement based on further negotiations and discussions.
06:17Unfortunately, Turkey doesn't see it that way.
06:20Turkey is hell-bent on liquidating this project in Kurdish-led autonomy south of its border.
06:27That's Turkey's number one objective in Syria, Turkey's number one foreign policy objective.
06:32And with the changes on the ground, Turkey's been able to move very quickly to become the
06:36most dominant external state in Syria and to both launch waves of airstrikes against
06:42the Kurdish-led regions and also to send its own militiamen, many of whom have never fired
06:47a shot in anger against Assad, to attack the Kurdish security forces, Kurdish civilians
06:52and this Kurdish-Arab coalition with the aim of driving them out from across the border.
06:58We've seen tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands of people displaced already in
07:03this ongoing Turkish offensive, which is a real tragedy as Syrians seek to turn the page
07:07and begin a new life together.
07:10And talk to us a little bit more about the predicament that the Kurds are facing in Syria.
07:14As you say, they never fully sided with Assad, nor the rebels.
07:19So what exactly does the future hold for them?
07:21Are they going to have a place in post-Assad Syria, do you think?
07:29The new administration in Damascus has said that it wants to respect minority rights.
07:33It said that it is going to respect basic rights for women.
07:37It said that it's going to listen to the Syrian people.
07:40It said it's going to respect the rule of law.
07:41It remains to be seen whether HTS, this former al-Qaeda offshoot, is going to follow through
07:47on all of those promises.
07:48We, of course, those watching Syria, those living in Syria, hope that they will.
07:52But it shouldn't be forgotten that there's a model which does all of those things in
07:54north and east Syria.
07:55The federation there is by no means perfect, but throughout the Syrian conflict it's been
08:00an island of relative stability, relative peace, relative rule of law, women's participation
08:06to a level never before seen in Syrian society.
08:08These are all positive things which this federation can contribute in a new Syrian settlement,
08:14however that might turn out.
08:17Unfortunately, it's not just up to Syrians and Turkey.
08:21It is waiting hungrily over the border, looking for any opportunity it can to expand its own
08:27presence and control in Syria and to drive out the Kurds.
08:30And would it mean, do you think, accepting at some point a degree of Kurdish autonomy
08:34in the east of Syria?
08:38That's right.
08:39So, I mean, there is, as we speak now, there is autonomy in the northeast for this federation
08:43numbering around four million people.
08:45At the moment, that federation is actually majority Arab, so Arabs, Kurds, local minorities,
08:49Christians and Yazidis working together.
08:53There might be some changes.
08:54There will certainly be some changes to that.
08:55We might see some of these very conservative rural Arab populations preferring to throw
08:59their lot in with HTS.
09:02I believe that the Kurdistan administration will be open to that so long as there are
09:07particularly protections for Kurds and for minorities.
09:11At the same time, you know, their vision is not for a Syria divided up along ethnic lines.
09:15It's not for population exchanges.
09:18And I think that would also be a sad outcome.
09:19It's for Syria's Kurds, Arabs and the other populations living there to find a way to
09:23live together.
09:24They're all Syrians.
09:25The same flag is flying across all of Syria tonight.
09:28But sadly, there are still armed campaigns going on aimed at driving the Syrian Kurds
09:34and Arabs out from their cities in the northeast.
09:36And there is some further uncertainty on the horizon in the form of Donald Trump.
09:41He's been sceptical about U.S. involvement in Syria.
09:44There's nearly a thousand American troops there currently in the east of the country.
09:49They're partnering, as you know, with Kurdish forces to prevent that ISIS resurgence.
09:54But is that mission under threat from January?
09:59It's under profound threat.
10:00So, I mean, I was based in Syria for several years, including in 2019, when, as people
10:06might remember, Donald Trump sought to pull those U.S. troops out of the Kurdish regions.
10:11And that immediately opened the way in a matter of days to a devastating Turkish invasion,
10:16airstrikes across the border, the death of hundreds of civilians, the displacement of
10:19hundreds of thousands of civilians.
10:21That was eventually halted following intense internal pressure from the Pentagon in America,
10:28who urged Donald Trump to recognize that this was not a sensible policy.
10:33This didn't serve American interests.
10:34It was only going to sow more instability in the Middle East and therefore hand a boon
10:39to many countries who are not particularly friendly to America.
10:43With Donald Trump coming back and having already signaled that he doesn't understand or see
10:47the importance for this U.S. presence in the region, it's very likely that Erdogan is hoping
10:53he can complete what he started in 2019 and get the green light to complete that sweep
10:58south of the border and the displacement of the Kurds and all that they've tried to build.
11:04All of the efforts they've put in to defend the West from ISIS in the coming, possibly
11:09even weeks.
11:10And just finally, Matt, we saw today as well the interim leaders in Syria promising, you
11:16know, to make changes, to suspend parliament and the Constitution for three months.
11:21If we look a little bit further ahead, what are you expecting, are you expecting elections
11:25or what do you think is going to happen in terms of when that interim government might
11:30give way to something else, something more permanent?
11:34I think, I mean, I think it's very hard to say.
11:38HDS have been doing a very good job of communicating to the outside world in particular, but also
11:44to minorities and communities within Syria that they are willing to engage in some degree
11:50of moderation of their approach.
11:53But when we can look at the situation in Idlib where HDS have ruled millions of Syrians for
11:58the past few years, they have moderated on some points, there have been less of the sort
12:03of executions which HDS has previously committed, even for apostasy, witchcraft.
12:10In the past, there have been less of the violent attacks on minorities that HDS has conducted.
12:16But at the same time, the government in Idlib, of course, remains deeply authoritarian, deeply
12:20conservative interpretation of Islam.
12:22There's no room for criticism, freedom of expression.
12:24There's not much freedom for women, thousands of journalists and opposition figures jailed
12:29within Idlib itself.
12:31Right now, Syrians are, of course, celebrating the fall of Assad.
12:36And there is, of course, a general sense that HDS are in a position to provide something
12:41better to Syrians than what was under Bashar Assad, but it will need, firstly, consistent
12:46pressure and engagement from regional states, also from Western states, and it will also
12:51need the participation of all Syrians, including the Federation in the Northeast, to make that
12:56a possibility.
12:57Matt, thank you so much for all of that analysis and that insight.
13:01Thank you so much for being with us this evening.
13:02That's Matt Broomfield.
13:03He's co-founder of the Syria-based Rojava Information Centre.
13:07Do stay with us.
13:08We'll be back shortly.