"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Senin (09/12/2024) dengan tema Prabowo Ingatkan Investor Saham Ritel"
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00:00PEMI ARSAN
00:05Good morning, PEMI ARSAN.
00:06For those of you who have just joined us,
00:08you are watching MarketBuzz,
00:10where in this segment, we will share some information
00:12about the capital market, sentiment,
00:14and also recommendations from analysts for you.
00:16We start with a graphic of the Global Economic Agenda,
00:19which may be of interest to you, PEMI ARSAN,
00:21in investing.
00:23There is confidence in Indonesian consumers in November.
00:26Then there is also a reserve of Singapore's deficit
00:28in the US dollar in November.
00:31The third quarter of GDP
00:34from Japan and China's IHK in November.
00:38We move on to the EMI10 Agenda.
00:44Among them are GEMS, Ex-Dividend Tunai Interim.
00:47Next, there is also POWR,
00:49NIC LDPS Dividend Tunai Interim.
00:52Let's continue to the Stock Exchange Update.
00:55This morning, in the middle of the closing record
00:58of the Wall Street Stock Exchange
01:00and also the strengthening of the European Stock Exchange
01:02at the end of the week,
01:04the Asian Stock Exchange tended to fluctuate,
01:06where Nikkei Japan rose by 0.14%.
01:09The Times, KOSPI, Hang Seng, KOMPAC moved weakly,
01:12where KOSPI from South Korea
01:14still recorded the deepest weakness,
01:16still possibly related to political sentiment,
01:20where the president of South Korea
01:22could declare a military emergency.
01:30From the President's Office,
01:32President Sopianto recently made a statement
01:34related to investment in the stock market.
01:36President Sopianto said
01:38the investment instrument in the stock market
01:40is unfriendly to small capital investors.
01:43According to him, the one who controls the price of the stock
01:45is only the big investors.
01:47He said that statement
01:49when he was at the TANWIR Fair
01:51and the reception of the 112th National Assembly of Muhammadiyah
01:54in Kupang not long ago.
01:56And it was made public
01:58when he spoke about
02:00there was a party that threatened
02:02the program,
02:04which is free food.
02:06That if the program is launched,
02:08it will weaken the index of the Samkabungan stock market.
02:12What?
02:13You want to give free food?
02:15Ha ha ha, you laughed.
02:18In the beginning, they laughed at me,
02:20and I know,
02:21they threatened me.
02:23I know I was threatened.
02:27Later,
02:28the price of the stock,
02:30the price of the stock index will go down.
02:33On the first days,
02:35I launched the idea of free food.
02:38It has already appeared.
02:40I understand.
02:41I have been an Indonesian for a long time.
02:45I understand.
02:48I understand.
02:51There is an open threat,
02:52there is a smooth threat.
02:55Sir, because of the idea of free food,
02:58the price of the stock index will go down.
03:01I said, I answered them.
03:03I told them,
03:05so that I don't have a stock, I said.
03:09And the people in the villages don't have a stock.
03:16That's right.
03:22If the stock goes down,
03:24the players in the stock market,
03:28who are the players in the stock market here?
03:30Ministers, come on, admit it.
03:35Mr. Hamzah, I think, come on.
03:39It's not just the rich people who play in the stock market.
03:43There are my friends,
03:45mathematicians,
03:49they want to use algorithms.
03:52But I see their lives are stressful.
03:56Every second they watch TV.
03:59The price of the stock goes down.
04:010.0.
04:02They panic.
04:03They count it again.
04:05Life is stressful, I don't want it.
04:09And I told them,
04:11the players in the stock market,
04:13if it's a small person,
04:15they will lose.
04:17For a small person,
04:19it's usually the same as gambling.
04:22The winner is the one who has a big stock.
04:25The strong one.
04:27That's it, Mr. Wiarsa.
04:29A statement from President Prabowo Subianto
04:32some time ago,
04:34who reminded the investors of retail stocks.
04:37We will discuss it with Mr. Arya Santoso,
04:39President Director of CSA Institute.
04:42Good morning, Mr. Arya. How are you?
04:44Good morning, Brisa. I'm fine.
04:46Thank you for joining us in this busy time.
04:49Mr. Arya, how do you feel
04:51about the statement from our president
04:53who admitted that he was once threatened
04:55that IHSG will go down
04:56because of the free lunch program.
04:58Then he reminded the investors of retail stocks
05:01that if it's a small investment,
05:06it tends to go to gambling.
05:10How do you feel about that?
05:13In the context,
05:15the story was threatened.
05:17The president admitted
05:19that he didn't take the threat seriously.
05:23In the context,
05:24he wasn't too worried about the threat.
05:27In the content of the statement,
05:30the president said
05:32and I hope you pay attention to it,
05:34that he said it was gambling.
05:37He said it was gambling.
05:39Actually, there is no prohibition to invest
05:42and there is no such thing as investor.
05:45He said,
05:46small people don't have stocks.
05:48In villages, there is the term big city.
05:51So, it's not the word investor.
05:53There is no word investor there.
05:55So, what is considered a big city
05:57is an institution that has a lot of capital.
06:00For investors who have a lot of capital,
06:03they have the capacity to keep it for a long time.
06:06Therefore,
06:07if the winner is the big city,
06:09who has the ability to keep it longer,
06:12we also have to follow it.
06:14We have to follow that it's an investment,
06:16not gambling.
06:17So, if it's like this,
06:18it seems like a good education for the community
06:20or even a guide to follow.
06:22How does Smart Money
06:24do stock trading
06:26to get capital gain in the long term?
06:29So, Smart Money is not used to play around for a day or two.
06:32That's why it's like gambling.
06:34It's good to play around
06:36in a very short period of time.
06:38For example, today,
06:39tomorrow,
06:40or a few days later.
06:42It's good to understand.
06:43Sometimes it's just following.
06:44Sometimes it's just hype.
06:45Then, you don't know
06:47if it's already overvalued.
06:49So, there is no concept of investment.
06:52It's just following.
06:54So, it's like a good education.
06:56If the big city can win,
06:58just follow the big one.
06:59What is the method?
07:00Have a long holding period
07:04and choose a company
07:06that is fundamentally good.
07:07So, if you look at
07:09what the president said,
07:11in terms of diction,
07:12it's more like a guide.
07:14If the capital is limited,
07:16you have to have more literacy,
07:19evaluate the best.
07:21Because even the president's class
07:23has also been stupid
07:25to invest in the stock market.
07:26So, it doesn't matter
07:28who is at a disadvantage
07:31if they make a wrong choice.
07:34You need a better understanding.
07:36So, in my opinion,
07:37it's good to have this as a guide.
07:41Then, there is awareness
07:43about the capital market.
07:44And how to succeed.
07:48Because there are investors
07:49who have a lot of capital.
07:50If they succeed, they can win.
07:52So, what is the method
07:54to get capital gain?
07:56To get profit?
07:57That means there is a way.
07:59And that's what the investors need to learn.
08:02Okay.
08:03It was also said there
08:05that it was once threatened
08:06that when the free lunch program
08:08will be held,
08:09because it may burden
08:13the APBN and so on,
08:16the share price index will drop.
08:20And actually, if we look at the diction
08:21from Mr. Prabowo here,
08:23he wants to say
08:24that he is not afraid.
08:25Previously, Morgan Stanley
08:27lowered the level of investment
08:29in the Indonesian capital market
08:30to be underweight
08:31due to the rupee increase,
08:32then the challenging fiscal burden.
08:35It means the allocation of Indonesian companies
08:36in the portfolio of the Asian market
08:37and developing countries
08:39will be reduced.
08:41So, how to deal with this?
08:43And we see that
08:44the share price index from 7,900
08:46also dropped to 7,000 again.
08:49Although now it's starting to rise
08:51to 7,400.
08:53What do you think?
08:55If we look at it,
08:56this is a reasonable thing.
08:58If there is a comment,
08:59for example, reducing weight in the portfolio,
09:01it is done periodically.
09:03So, the term in the financial world
09:04is rebalancing the portfolio.
09:06Usually, in a portfolio
09:07that already has capital gain,
09:09it will usually be adjusted
09:11for profit taking
09:12and rearranging
09:14to optimize the portfolio.
09:16Rupee weakness
09:17also occurs over a long term.
09:19So, even so,
09:21usually big investors
09:23still stay in developing countries,
09:28in emerging markets,
09:29including Indonesia,
09:30they still stay.
09:31So, for example, in BUMN Bank,
09:33for example, in BBRI,
09:3478% of floating shares
09:37that are traded
09:38are still owned by foreign investors.
09:41So, some are owned by the country,
09:43then some are floating,
09:44owned by the community.
09:45It can be bought by anyone.
09:47So, 78% of floating shares
09:49are still owned by foreign investors.
09:51Then, for example, in Bandiri Bank,
09:54around 69% to 70%
09:57are also owned by foreign investors.
10:00So, if there is an adjustment,
10:01it will affect,
10:02but usually the majority
10:06are still staying in Indonesia.
10:08If the fiscal burden
10:10is perceived
10:11as a reason for the outflow,
10:13but actually,
10:14most of it is still not out.
10:17Morgan Stanley's statement
10:19actually came out in June,
10:20in the middle of the year.
10:21Because June, July, August, September,
10:23the IHSG increased
10:24from 6698 to 7910.
10:27So, it can be said
10:29that the big vision
10:30that the President promised
10:31in his implementation
10:32cannot be done
10:33without a mature calculation.
10:35So, there are ways
10:36that have been thought carefully,
10:37how to allocate the budget,
10:39the implementation techniques,
10:40it is also impossible
10:41to disrupt economic stability
10:43or national prosperity.
10:45But how do you see
10:46the weakening of the IHSG
10:47that touched 7,000
10:49quite a long time ago,
10:50the consolidation tends to decline.
10:53And according to Morgan Stanley,
10:55the promise of President Subianto's campaign,
10:57such as the free lunch and milk program
10:59for students,
11:00can cause a large fiscal burden.
11:02Does that mean
11:03that it is also the pressure
11:05of the Joint Stock Index
11:06for some time now?
11:08Yes, there are some factors,
11:10not just the fiscal burden
11:12that then becomes the main reason.
11:14It could be because
11:16in the context
11:18if it is carried out
11:19simultaneously,
11:22it is calculated,
11:23the number,
11:24how much the burden is.
11:25But it can be said
11:26that actually
11:27pilot projects can be carried out
11:29first
11:30on the target
11:31that really needs help.
11:34Budget allocation has been arranged,
11:36what kind of implementation techniques,
11:37it can be done gradually.
11:39So, there are ways
11:40so the big vision
11:41can't be translated directly
11:43with, for example,
11:44so the total that needs to be helped,
11:47then per one
11:49lunch budget,
11:50how much,
11:51then implemented
11:52blindly,
11:53it's impossible.
11:54So, maybe there is a misunderstanding.
11:56So, for the time being,
11:58for the time being.
11:59For the time being.
12:00When in the last quarter,
12:02it has started to rise,
12:03we see the following graph,
12:04the Joint Stock Index
12:06in the last quarter
12:07has strengthened again
12:08almost 4%.
12:10But if we look,
12:11foreign net sales
12:12are still quite massive.
12:13IHSG,
12:14the lowest and highest range,
12:167041,
12:17and the highest on Friday,
12:19at 7382.
12:21With an increase
12:22in accumulation
12:23in 5 days
12:24is 3.77%.
12:26The regular market
12:27still records foreign net sales
12:29in a week,
12:30this is almost 2 trillion rupiah,
12:32one month,
12:33Mr. Arya,
12:3415 trillion rupiah,
12:366 months,
12:379 trillion,
12:38and year-to-date
12:3922.25 trillion rupiah.
12:41As you can see
12:42on the screen of my TV
12:44IHSG earnings
12:46last week.
12:49Okay.
12:51How do you feel
12:52about foreign net sales?
12:55Mr. Arya,
12:56it's quite significant
12:57this year-to-date
12:5822.25 trillion rupiah.
13:00Actually,
13:01last week,
13:02it was bullish
13:03in the minor movement.
13:04We see that
13:05in the market movement,
13:06there are cycles,
13:08there is a primary movement,
13:10it can be 9 months
13:12up to 2 years,
13:13then there is a secondary movement,
13:141.5 months
13:15up to 9 months,
13:17then there is a minor movement
13:18in about 2 weeks
13:19up to 6 weeks.
13:20So it can be said
13:21that indeed
13:22we follow the cycle,
13:24the cycle is indeed in the primary trend,
13:26usually what we can read
13:27is indeed
13:28in the long run,
13:29the index price of the joint stock market
13:30is still rising.
13:32If we look at the duration of time,
13:34it's usually up and down,
13:35up and down,
13:36it's usual.
13:37So,
13:38if there is a secondary movement,
13:39then it can be 1.5 months
13:40up to 9 months,
13:41it's a bit of a mess.
13:42That's actually
13:43not understood
13:44by the public,
13:46just looking at it,
13:47oh, today it's down,
13:48today it's up,
13:49in a nutshell.
13:50But,
13:51we need to learn
13:52the movements,
13:53what can be said,
13:54the cycle,
13:55the cycle,
13:56both in the primary,
13:57secondary,
13:58and minor.
13:59Well,
14:00you see it in a cycle,
14:01what is the current S&G like,
14:02and what is the current valuation,
14:03a good opportunity
14:04to invest
14:05or how
14:06to invest.
14:07Thank you, Mr. Soejeda.
14:08Mr. Arya,
14:09we will continue
14:10and Mr. Mir,
14:11stay with us
14:12on MarketBas.