Un análisis del primer año de gobierno de Javier Milei en Argentina destaca su éxito en revertir la hiperrecesión e hiperinflación heredada, con ayuda financiera significativa de Estados Unidos. La administración Milei ha logrado una mejora notable en la economía argentina, posicionándose como un líder fuerte frente a la izquierda subordinada a China, Rusia e Irán. Se espera que para 2025, el país alcance entre 550 y 600 puntos básicos de riesgo país, lo que permitirá préstamos a baja tasa para empresas y el Estado. Además, se anticipa que Argentina pagará sus bonos e intereses sin renovarlos, marcando un hito histórico en su economía.
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00:00Global evaluation of this first year of the government of Javier Milei. Doctor, what can we say?
00:05Well, first of all, I think it has surprised us all, except for some fanatic.
00:10It has surprised us all because Milei receives in Argentina a situation of hyper-recession and hyper-inflation.
00:18And it goes around all that in 12 months. The truth is, with Menem, it didn't work out that way for us.
00:24In the first year it was very complicated.
00:26Menem had two hyper-inflations to ask for the conversion.
00:29Yes, well, but Milei...
00:30But it also came from a looting of the time of Alfonsín.
00:34Yes, but the economy that Alfonsín left was much healthier than the one left by Kirchnerism.
00:39Because Kirchnerism left 20 years of economic destruction,
00:43of this perversion that three sinister types, Kirchner, Lula and Chávez,
00:51that destroyed a large part of the economy of South America,
00:54by the hand of what is a Marxist idea developed in Brazil, but expanded by America.
01:03This man has achieved, first in macroeconomic matters,
01:06the miracle of having managed to stop the monetary emission spuria.
01:12No one achieved that.
01:14Secondly, having achieved fiscal balance.
01:18We will surely end the year with fiscal surplus.
01:22And what is most important, this has permeated the microeconomy.
01:26Because six months ago, our concern, I think, was that everything would be good.
01:32The macro is doing very well.
01:33Yes, when the reactivation is spilled here.
01:36But people have a lot of problems.
01:37Well, if you talk to humble people from the great Buenos Aires,
01:41they start to tell you, at last prices are not going up.
01:44And why this, at last prices are not going up, is so important?
01:49Because the middle sectors have another defense mechanism.
01:54We have gotten used to having the funnel in some dollars and selling it.
01:59Well, all that is ending.
02:01The dollar as an investment is not a good investment in the coming times.
02:06For the humble man, the humble woman, it was not a way out.
02:09For them, what matters is that the salary they receive,
02:12the work they do, serves to buy food for their family and for them.
02:17They store food.
02:18They store food.
02:20So today this reality is totally changing.
02:23And that's why you see, when you go into the opinion polls,
02:29that Miley grows a lot more in the humble than in the middle sectors.
02:32Yes, this is a phenomenon.
02:33No, the middle sectors are bothered by the modes.
02:36Not the bottom.
02:38But the forms.
02:39The forms, the forms.
02:40Well, but Miley is Miley.
02:41Miley is Miley, well, but what I say is,
02:44why does this rise so much in the humble, not so much in the middle sectors?
02:50That's why.
02:50Because it bothers him, not so much the bottom, but the form.
02:55But let's go to some specific cases that I find very significant.
02:59Look, Miley has not only changed the macro and micro economy.
03:05Argentina is going to have a spectacular year 2025.
03:08Let's see.
03:09Why?
03:10Because when you talk to Wall Street analysts,
03:12with those who analyze the economic projection, not the financial projection,
03:18for example, JP Morgan Chase,
03:20they are talking about inflation for the coming year of 34-36% per year.
03:25Nothing.
03:26Yes.
03:26And they are talking about a projection for the following year, for 2026,
03:31of a digit of annual inflation.
03:33Almost the convertibility that you had with Menem.
03:36Yes, but also what a normal country has to have.
03:39Exactly.
03:39Sure, but we never live it.
03:41Nobody has inflation.
03:42Sure, you, as a young man, did not live it.
03:44We, who are old, lived it with Menem.
03:46Then came all the destruction that the Quisnerismo of Argentina did.
03:49But then, a great perspective for 2025, a great support from Donald Trump.
03:55We didn't imagine this either.
03:57Because Donald Trump is also a character that, in general, as they say in the neighborhood,
04:01he scratches inwards.
04:03Well, he is very hooked on Miley.
04:05In fact, in Mar-a-Lago, they talked about Trump,
04:09Vance, who is the elected vice president of the United States,
04:12Elon Musk, and Miley.
04:14This is very strange.
04:15And that also, Trump, in his speech, refers to Miley,
04:18and that now they do, as they have done, an action of the same structure of CEPAC,
04:23and that the wife of Donald Trump's youngest son has come,
04:28which is also very important in the campaign structure,
04:32and what they call the cultural battle.
04:34Let's talk about that.
04:35Because many said, the daughter-in-law has come,
04:37what importance does the Trump family have?
04:39Ignorance is really a big problem in Argentina.
04:43We are talking about the daughter-in-law of the President of the United States,
04:49who comes to the south of the world and ends up dancing with Miley.
04:53Guys, this is the truth.
04:55Not even in Menem's time did we achieve it.
04:57Menem had a great relationship with Bush father,
05:00surely a great president too.
05:02Yes, they also played golf.
05:06But what Miley did with Trump is unthinkable for anyone who has seen this before,
05:12who knows the United States, and who knows what the United States can do for Argentina.
05:17For now, a great financial help.
05:20Caputo can walk quietly.
05:22I know that in the coming days,
05:25talking again with the people of the International Monetary Fund,
05:29the Secretary of the Treasury has received precise instructions from Donald Trump
05:35that Miley's government must be helped.
05:38As a result, this is going to be the World Monetary Fund,
05:42where it dominates, we have already explained it here in the United States.
05:44But also, watch out.
05:46For Trump, Miley is the leader who has to discuss,
05:50at least in South America,
05:53the leadership of our neighbor, Lula.
05:57That is, the left subordinated to China, Russia and Iran,
06:04versus a leader aligned with the United States and Israel.
06:08In other words, the key is Miley.
06:10For the United States, the key, let's say,
06:14the ideological ally against Cuba, Venezuela, Brazil, is Javier Miley.
06:21That's right.
06:22And that means that the political battle that will take place in the next two years
06:27in Brazil and Colombia, another key country,
06:31Miley and his team will have a lot of participation.
06:34Does Bolsonaro have a chance in Brazil to return?
06:36Bolsonaro is legally prohibited.
06:38We'll see how they solve that issue.
06:41In Brazil, a clean sheet mechanism works.
06:46And I'm going to take this opportunity to refer to this clean sheet issue.
06:49Because lately I've seen a lot of criticism from some political partners of the government
06:54that there was no quorum for a clean sheet.
06:57Well, the first thing to remember is that the clean sheet started in 2016.
07:03Macri ruled in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019.
07:11In other words, he didn't even get to the chamber of deputies.
07:16So you're complaining about what you didn't know how to do.
07:20But also, when one says, I'm obviously in favor of a clean sheet, to make it clear.
07:26When one says things that were never achieved,
07:29in the last 20 years, the only paper ballot was walking through courts,
07:35going around and then walking through the parliamentary system.
07:39Why through courts?
07:41Because the electoral judges saw it complicated.
07:44Then through the parliamentary system.
07:48They went one by one, now they go one by one.
07:50Well, they got rid of it with my law.
07:52And why is this so incredible?
07:54Because my law has less than a third of deputies and less than a third of senators.
07:58So what I think is that we have a president who, in this first year,
08:03claimed that he has a great year 2020-2025, and as a result, an Argentina
08:07that improved this year and will improve even more next year.
08:11I imagine, doctor, asking a lot of people, and my pocket, how is it going to improve?
08:15That's why I want to go back to what we were talking about at the beginning,
08:17in terms of the goal that my law has, of achieving an agreement,
08:20and if this can be achieved, of free trade with the United States.
08:23And you mentioned the pause.
08:25Be careful, not only the United States.
08:27A great market is opening, which is today the most populated country in the world,
08:30which can be India.
08:32Explain to us that.
08:34Well, India is a very interesting country for Argentina.
08:37Argentina, the president of YPF, who is really a very trained man,
08:42finally, to be able to turn YPF into what it should be,
08:47YPF, the owner of a large part of Baca Muerta,
08:50goes back to India, it was already in January,
08:53and the first step would be a gas agreement with India.
08:57Why?
08:59Because China is super supplied with gas,
09:02it buys everything that Russia has.
09:05They made two gas pipelines, the power of Siberia 1 and 2,
09:08everything is bought by Russia.
09:11In turn, Europe began to buy from Qatar what it used to buy from Russia.
09:15But India, a country with a lot of development needs,
09:18does not have enough gas.
09:20So for Argentina it would be the first step,
09:22and perhaps a later free trade zone would enable
09:25to make mutual industries that can sell in the other country.
09:30And I give an example.
09:32If Tesla, which is now in India,
09:35from India came to Argentina,
09:37they could mutually trade at the same value the vehicles.
09:41And what Tesla is going to do in India
09:44is a vehicle of less cost than usual.
09:47The other issue, free trade zone with the United States,
09:50is much slower.
09:52I'm not saying it's not possible.
09:54I say it's much slower because there is always a strong resistance
09:59in the Democrats and Republicans.
10:01On the one hand, the affiliates, that is, the unions,
10:03on the other hand, the businessmen.
10:05It's a way to go.
10:06What my law will quickly bring out is financial support.
10:09And the other issue that my law can bring out,
10:11which is extremely important, is the issue of investments.
10:14Why?
10:15Because with this financial aid,
10:18we will surely be in 2025
10:21at around 600 to 550 basic risk points per country.
10:27Which is fundamental to be able to make a loan at a low rate
10:31for companies and for the state.
10:34And besides, this opens up a kind of virtuous circle.
10:39Because Argentina will have in January,
10:42and this is an anticipation,
10:44Now?
10:45Now.
10:46It will pay Argentine bonds.
10:49It will not roll them up, it will not renew them.
10:52It will pay them.
10:53And it will pay the interests.
10:55What does this mean?
10:57That for the first time, Argentina,
10:59since I have a sense of reason,
11:01instead of pedaling a debt,
11:04it will pay it.
11:06Why is this an important advantage?
11:08Because you make it, for the first time,
11:10a reliable country.
11:11And when you are a reliable country,
11:13it is most likely that the one who charges that
11:15will reinvest in bonds that will yield more and more.
11:19So, Argentina is in a virtuous circle.
11:22I think we have to rejoice and prepare ourselves
11:24to live a much better 2025.
11:28And remember that it is December 1st,
11:31after many years,
11:33that we are not thinking what will happen.
11:35Yes, although there are some who want to shake that game.
11:38Yes, but also control the street,
11:40in my opinion, with Patricia Burry.
11:42That is the other success.
11:43Eye, the issue of security,
11:45which is still a problem for many people,
11:48people are beginning to see that the firm hand
11:51of Patricia Burry and the support of the president
11:54are key.
11:56Yesterday...
11:57Sorry, in Rosario there is an example.
11:59In El Conurbano, we go every day,
12:01and there are dead every day.
12:02Well, there you also have to tell that
12:04there is little local collaboration.
12:06The current administration,
12:08I am still the same governor,
12:10but it is not the same with Bernie as now.
12:12With Bernie there was another control
12:14of the security forces.
12:15Bernie had a fast response system
12:17that today is not seen in the province of Buenos Aires.
12:19But look yesterday at the extraordinary summons.
12:22What did the president do in Extraordinaria?
12:26Put the anti-mafia law issue.
12:28Yes.
12:29This issue is central.
12:30Why?
12:31Because if there are no necessary legal mechanisms
12:34to control organized crime,
12:36the judges are tied up.
12:38Of course.
12:39Some are going to tell me
12:40that there are complicated judges with the mafia.
12:42Surely.
12:44But many honest judges
12:46do not have the instruments today
12:48to give the security forces
12:50the relevant action to act.
12:52Yes.
12:53Doctor, you spoke of a term that is fundamental
12:55for investments to come,
12:56which is trust.
12:57There is trust when,
12:58in addition,
12:59President Javier Milley
13:01is supposed to,
13:02next year,
13:03if he does well in the elections,
13:04achieve a greater volume in Congress.
13:06What is foreseen of the next elections?
13:08And basically,
13:09in this enclave that we mentioned,
13:10which is the province of Buenos Aires,
13:12where they are fighting
13:14for change,
13:15and freedom advances,
13:16if they have to go together,
13:17if not.
13:18And well,
13:19we already know that when they were separated,
13:21Kicillof ended up winning.
13:23Well, my opinion,
13:24I have said it here,
13:25I always say it,
13:26is that they should go together.
13:28It is true that today Milley
13:30measures four times what Macri measures
13:32in the province of Buenos Aires.
13:34Macri is much stronger
13:36in terms of personal image
13:37in the city of Buenos Aires.
13:39In the province of Buenos Aires,
13:40he never allowed,
13:41at the time,
13:42well,
13:43he wins because
13:45there is a historical circumstance,
13:47but he has always had a lot of difficulty.
13:49Today that difficulty is increased
13:51because whoever takes the electorate
13:53that he had,
13:54is Milley.
13:55Without prejudice,
13:56I think they have to go together,
13:58because it is extremely important
14:00that change opposes the past.
14:03What an opposition has to present
14:05at some point in Argentina
14:08is a plan for the future,
14:10not to go back.
14:12Because, in addition,
14:14those who propose to go back are wrong,
14:16because people chose Milley,
14:18because they were fed up
14:19with what they were living.
14:20So we have to learn
14:22from our own history,
14:24from our own defects,
14:25what we have to change.
14:27And then a new generation will have to come
14:29that can succeed Milley sometime,
14:32improving their ideas,
14:33not trying to destroy them,
14:35as Cristina Fernández de Kirchner does,
14:37which is actually,
14:38I will not use the terms
14:41of a former Uruguayan president,
14:43it is a burden
14:44for the structure itself.
14:46You are being more polite
14:47than Pepe Mujica,
14:48Dr. Rucaf.
14:49I try, I try.
14:50An intense year awaits us,
14:53Dr. Elbenkof.
14:54An intense year,
14:55and well,
14:56let's hope that Racing,
14:58after yesterday's setback,
15:01but with a lot of courage,
15:02also has a 20-25.
15:04Now we go with the cup,
15:05right?
15:06Yes, and also,
15:07let's see how it goes to Vélez.
15:10I don't have hopes buried.
15:12Mathematically, there is a minimum.
15:14As long as there is hope, there is life.
15:16Of course, Dr. Rucaf.