Data Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate atau Jisdor Bank Indonesia mencatat, pergerakan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap mata uang Dolar Amerika Serikat cenderung mengalami pelemahan. Mata uang Garuda pada tanggal 3 Desember 2024 tercatat berada di level Rp15.950 per Dolar Amerika Serikat, nyaris menyentuh level RP16.000 per Dolar Amerika.
Mata uang Garuda sempat bertahan di level Rp16.000-an per Dolar Amerika Serikat dari pertengahan bulan April hingga awal Agustus 2024. Rupiah kembali mengalami penguatan dan meninggalkan level Rp16.000-an atau tepatnya di Rp15.952 per Dolar Amerika Serikat pada tanggal 8 Agustus 2024.
Konflik geo politik di kawasan Timur Tengah yang semakin meluas dan perang antara Rusia dan Ukraina yang berkepanjangan, dinilai menjadi salah satu penyebab terganggunya aktivitas perekonomian global, termasuk Indonesia. Kondisi ini pun mendorong penguatan Dolar Amerika terhadap sejumlah mata uang utama dunia lainnya, sebab Dolar Amerika telah menjadi safe haven.
Mata uang Garuda sempat bertahan di level Rp16.000-an per Dolar Amerika Serikat dari pertengahan bulan April hingga awal Agustus 2024. Rupiah kembali mengalami penguatan dan meninggalkan level Rp16.000-an atau tepatnya di Rp15.952 per Dolar Amerika Serikat pada tanggal 8 Agustus 2024.
Konflik geo politik di kawasan Timur Tengah yang semakin meluas dan perang antara Rusia dan Ukraina yang berkepanjangan, dinilai menjadi salah satu penyebab terganggunya aktivitas perekonomian global, termasuk Indonesia. Kondisi ini pun mendorong penguatan Dolar Amerika terhadap sejumlah mata uang utama dunia lainnya, sebab Dolar Amerika telah menjadi safe haven.
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TVTranscript
00:00New Soyu Intense Lip Stain. Intense color, lasts up to 12 hours. Buy now.
00:30The economic movement in Indonesia and this time we will discuss the exchange rate movement
00:35which we know together in the last few days tends to experience pressure against the US dollar.
00:40What are the weaknesses? Let's start the market review.
00:53The movement of Garuda's currency against the US dollar in the last few months tends to weaken
00:58even though it is still at the level of 15,000.
01:01However, the rupiah almost touched back to the level of 16,000 as in early August last year.
01:11Data Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate or GSTOR Bank Indonesia notes
01:15the movement of the value of the rupiah exchange against the US dollar currency tends to experience a weakness.
01:21Garuda's currency on December 3, 2024 was recorded at the level of 15,950 US dollars,
01:28almost touching the level of 16,000 US dollars.
01:31Garuda's currency had remained at the level of 16,000 US dollars from mid-April to early August 2024.
01:38The rupiah again experienced a strengthening and left the level of 16,000 or more precisely at 15,952 US dollars on August 8, 2024.
01:48The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is getting wider and the war between Russia and Ukraine is getting longer.
01:54It is estimated to be one of the causes of the disruption of global economic activity, including Indonesia.
01:59This condition also pushes the US dollar to strengthen against a number of major world currencies,
02:04because the US dollar has become a safe haven.
02:07On the other hand, Donald Trump was elected as the US President who has a policy direction
02:11such as inward-looking policy to protect the country's economy.
02:17It also pushes the US dollar to become stronger.
02:19In addition to the trade war policy as an implementation of additional import tariffs for products from China, Canada and Mexico,
02:26it is estimated that it will further warm the global economic tension.
02:30From Jakarta, team Liputan, Aidek Channel.
02:33JAKARTA, AIDEK CHANNEL
02:38Yes, Mr. Mir, let's discuss our topic this time.
02:40The impact of the weakening of the value of rupiah has been connected through Zoom with Mr. Bahrul Fikri.
02:47He is a serious researcher.
02:49Hello, Mr. Fikri, how are you?
02:51How are you, sir? Hello.
02:53Yes, greetings. How are you, sir?
02:54I'm fine, sir.
02:55Okay, thank you. And this is Mr. Toto Dirgantoro,
02:59Sec Gen of the Indonesian Export Company.
03:02Hello, Mr. Toto, how are you?
03:04I'm fine, sir. Thank you. How are you?
03:07I'm fine, too, sir. Thank you for the opportunity.
03:10And before we discuss further, we will review first.
03:14Related to Jatajisdor Bank Indonesia,
03:17which yesterday also showed that rupiah continues to weaken against the US dollar in the last week
03:22and is at 15,950 US dollars.
03:27Mr. Toto, what is the view of the GPI itself related to the current weakening of the value of rupiah?
03:33Yes. Actually, we hope that the dollar can be stable.
03:42Not too much fluctuation and so on.
03:46But this is a world situation.
03:48Only for the export, there are some who enjoy the weakening of rupiah.
03:55Especially the export, the components, the new materials in the country,
04:01such as wood and so on.
04:04But for manufacturing, the new materials are also imported.
04:10This is actually a bit disappointing.
04:16Because when we opened LC, when we bought new materials,
04:22the value of rupiah was stable when we paid,
04:25but when rupiah was weakening,
04:27when the goods came in, we produced them,
04:30when there was a payment transaction,
04:35the rupiah dollar became stronger.
04:38This is for sure that we will lose the exchange rate.
04:41So sometimes it's a dilemma. We are not a phallus company,
04:44but we also experience a loss of exchange rate.
04:46The value of the exchange rate becomes our concern.
04:50Okay, so if we look at the value of rupiah,
04:53for businessmen, especially for export companies,
04:57is it still comfortable?
04:59Yes. Actually, we were hoping to count at 15.
05:04Okay.
05:0615, it went down a bit because we are used to it.
05:10But suddenly it became weaker.
05:14Yes.
05:20Okay, so the tendency is to experience pressure
05:23for the value of our rupiah exchange rate.
05:25How do you see it?
05:27A review from you, Mas Fikri,
05:29about the movement of our exchange rate
05:32towards the US dollar?
05:36Yes. Actually, it's true.
05:39The value of the exchange rate can be a benchmark
05:42for a country's financial health.
05:44But it's also not without the factors that affect it.
05:49Such as export-import,
05:51or we can say how the condition of trade is today.
05:54Then, inflation in the future,
05:57which is likely to be very high
06:01because there are new policy movements
06:03that affect the society.
06:06And of course, the BPI.
06:08Well, from the time series data that I tried to regress,
06:12just a simple one,
06:14the value of the exchange rate from 2018
06:17until 4 December yesterday,
06:19it continued to depreciate to 11.37%.
06:23Well, or from the average of 2018,
06:26for example, it was around 14,297 rupiah
06:30to 15,950 yesterday on 4 December.
06:34It's true.
06:36What needs to be considered are external factors,
06:39such as Trump,
06:41which will create an expansionist and protectionist economic policy.
06:47But if we look at the inward-looking policy of Donald Trump,
06:51again, it did warm up the global economy,
06:55where the trade war that used to be done
06:59was then repeated.
07:01So, how do you see the movement of global currency,
07:04at least including rupiah,
07:06towards the US dollar in the future?
07:10Yes.
07:11To ask for the value of global currency itself,
07:14of course it will continue to depreciate.
07:17Okay.
07:18Except for the main currency, such as the euro.
07:22Maybe it can be a little competitive
07:26or maybe a little competitive with the dollar.
07:31But what needs to be remembered is
07:33the trade war between the US and China
07:36will also have a very significant impact
07:39for developing countries.
07:41That, of course, from what we see,
07:44is from the demand for goods
07:47that is supported by developing countries
07:50to the economy in China.
07:53Especially Indonesia, of course.
07:56Okay.
07:57Mr. Toto, in a situation like this,
07:59what do you think of the export companies themselves?
08:03Is it as predicted before,
08:05that the victory of Donald Trump,
08:07then the geopolitical conflict that is spreading in the Middle East,
08:12then the long war between Russia and Ukraine,
08:14will continue to pressure our rupiah?
08:19Yes.
08:20We are aware of the global economic condition
08:24that we are not only using goods,
08:26we are also using local currency.
08:32So, the transaction with the local currency,
08:36we start to leave the US dollar.
08:38This is also what we want to tell our other friends,
08:41we have to start doing that
08:43so that we are not stuck.
08:46Because other currencies are not so depressed.
08:52Even the dollar is still sustainable.
08:55Okay.
08:56So, this is our concern.
09:00Okay, but with any country,
09:02if there is a local currency policy,
09:06just like how we export,
09:08but hold on to the answer, Mr. Toto,
09:09we will pause for a moment.
09:11We will discuss later in the next segment.
09:12And viewers, stay with us.
09:14NEXT SEGMENT
09:44NEXT SEGMENT
10:06Indonesia's PMI Manufacture data,
10:08movement from June to November 2024.
10:12Yes, it was at an expansion level of 50.7 in June,
10:16but the trend tends to decline,
10:20in the sense that we are already at a contraction level
10:23for Indonesia's PMI Manufacture,
10:25from July, August, September, October to November,
10:29although there is a slight increase compared to October at 49.6.
10:33That's it for PMI Manufacture.
10:35Then, we will discuss Indonesia's economic growth.
10:39From the 3rd quarter of 2023, 4.94%,
10:42then it continues to the 1st quarter of this year,
10:455.11%, still holding at 5.05% in the 2nd quarter of this year,
10:51but it has dropped by 5%,
10:54precisely at 4.95% in the 3rd quarter of 2024.
11:00Let's discuss this data with our resumers,
11:02Mr. Toto Dirgantoro, SEGJEN GPI,
11:05and Mr. Bahrul Fikri, Poneliti Seleos.
11:09Let's discuss again, Mr. Toto,
11:11if we look at some of the data that has been provided,
11:14if there are some things related to the efforts
11:17to make transactions with local currency,
11:20and in fact, this has been going on for a long time,
11:23then with any country,
11:26from the implementation of this local currency scheme,
11:28is it being done, Mr. Toto?
11:31Yes.
11:32In fact, starting from the end of last year,
11:35we have started to enter local currency,
11:38especially with some with China,
11:42with China and several other Asian countries.
11:45We have been using local currency.
11:49This is actually what we want,
11:51for everyone to be able to use local currency,
11:54so that it will not burden us.
11:58If we look at the dollar index,
12:01it fluctuates a lot.
12:04Here, what we are worried about is,
12:07especially the manufacturing.
12:10Because all the prices we sell are already fixed,
12:14this involves steel and other materials.
12:18Likewise, for the components in the country,
12:23we have calculated,
12:25at that time, in the dollar,
12:27at the time of strengthening,
12:29we really got an advantage,
12:30but at the time of down,
12:32we also got pressure.
12:35Well, this is what we hope for,
12:38how the government can make
12:47this currency fundamental,
12:50at least stable.
12:52This is what we hope for.
12:54If we look at the growth,
12:56we also know that
12:58all our industries are experiencing a lot of problems,
13:02especially textiles and textile products,
13:04many have fallen.
13:06And this is not only influenced by the world market situation,
13:10but also the flooding of products in the country,
13:13the lack of government attention
13:16on monitoring and so on.
13:19And this is also,
13:21honestly, I say that
13:23actually, it can still survive,
13:28not because of government intervention,
13:32it can survive because the entrepreneurs try to survive,
13:35so that economic growth happens.
13:39Because we know that
13:42we as exporters also experience obstacles,
13:48especially in terms of logistical costs.
13:50The imported raw materials have a high logistical cost,
13:53finished production in the warehouse,
13:55want to go out also have a high logistical cost.
13:58And we know that
14:00our neighbors countries
14:02that we have never counted on,
14:04such as Vietnam and so on,
14:06can survive and can be our strongest competitor,
14:10change their position,
14:12because the government is present,
14:15so that their logistical costs are far below Indonesia.
14:20This is our struggle together.
14:23Okay, so in addition to the weakening of the rupiah,
14:26which is expected to be stable,
14:28but it turns out there are other challenges
14:30that are quite fundamental,
14:32which is related to the operational industry itself, right?
14:36If we talk about the rupiah itself,
14:38hedging or value protection,
14:40is this a choice or not, sir?
14:43Yes, in fact, hedging can be a choice,
14:47but the cost is also expensive.
14:49Oh, okay.
14:50Yes.
14:52Okay, that's one of the individual obstacles,
14:56hedging, but the cost is also.
14:59Well, Mr. Mikri, what do you think
15:01about the various efforts that have been made
15:03by businessmen,
15:04the struggle that has been quite massive
15:07to try to survive
15:09in the middle of a rupiah exchange rate fluctuation,
15:11not to mention the fundamental problems
15:13that were still experienced earlier,
15:15high logistical costs, then solid materials,
15:17then maybe also related to textile products,
15:21and the textile was a threat from imported products
15:24that entered Indonesia,
15:26meaning the challenge is from the internal
15:28and also from abroad, right?
15:30Mr. Mikri.
15:34Yes, hello.
15:38Yes.
15:39Actually, I agreed with Mr. Toto,
15:42because it's true that hedging costs
15:44also have costs,
15:45such as preemption or split in the forward contract,
15:48for example, if it is also too high
15:50compared to the potential losses
15:52caused by the rupiah fluctuation,
15:55hedging is also less effective.
15:57Well, then the consideration is also
16:00the situation of the domestic macroeconomy,
16:03the rupiah fluctuation caused by the fundamental factors
16:06earlier,
16:07then like the deficit of running transactions
16:09must also be anticipated.
16:11Or this global uncertainty
16:13must also be dealt with,
16:16in a preventive way.
16:18Then it can add pressure
16:21and also this condition,
16:23hedging can only protect for a while,
16:25as it really is.
16:27Without increasing the structural risk,
16:29hedging doesn't mean anything.
16:32Therefore, in fact,
16:34this domestic fundamental,
16:36or this domestic macroeconomy,
16:38must also be dealt with more preventively
16:40by the government.
16:42But what is interesting is
16:45when our PMI situation
16:47has now dropped drastically,
16:50then our textile industry
16:52is also in a hurry,
16:54even we know,
16:56the example has been given by PT Sritex,
16:58that PT Sritex finally collapsed.
17:01Well, this also doesn't mean anything
17:04from the government.
17:05The government should give more incentives
17:08to the business world.
17:10But what happens is
17:12our household consumption
17:14also becomes a problem,
17:17because our society continues to decline.
17:20This is also not good news
17:24for the business world.
17:26Because when household consumption decreases,
17:28which means the purchasing power of the society decreases,
17:30then the sales will also decrease
17:34in the business world.
17:35It means that the business will also be
17:37more depreciated or reduced.
17:40Well, this is also important
17:43in the future for the government
17:45to recalculate new funds,
17:48such as the most fundamental,
17:50which is the PN12%.
17:52This PN12% is very contrasting
17:57for the domestic macroeconomy,
17:59maybe that's it.
18:01Okay.
18:02Mr. Toto, what strategy has been done
18:05by exporters
18:07in the country?
18:09We also know that you have mentioned
18:11logistics, raw materials, etc.
18:14Do you see there is still a bright prospect
18:16when we want to export too?
18:20Well, if it's a company,
18:23we will continue to optimize.
18:28Okay.
18:29But in fact, we are also aware
18:31that there are many obstacles.
18:33And we know that
18:36our exports are only 20%.
18:39Okay.
18:40Actually, if the domestic market is maintained,
18:43then there is no problem
18:45if we are hit by export obstacles.
18:47Because the domestic market is enough.
18:49The problem is that the domestic market is not maintained
18:52and with the current economic situation,
18:55the population is automatically declining.
18:59We know now that
19:01there is a decline
19:03from the middle class to the lower class.
19:05The number is quite large.
19:07This is very influential.
19:09This is actually what we expect
19:11the role of the government.
19:13Because this is related to policies
19:15and so on.
19:16Okay.
19:17So, this is sometimes
19:20a dilemma for us.
19:23Okay.
19:24And we also know that Central Bank's steps
19:26to maintain the middle class
19:27which is the domain of Central Bank
19:29is related to inflation,
19:30then the movement of the Rupiah exchange rate.
19:32Is it effective or not?
19:33We will discuss in the next segment.
19:35And viewers, we will be right back
19:36after the next interview.
19:46Thank you for still joining us
19:48in Market Review.
19:49Viewers, let's continue our discussion
19:51with Mr. Toto Dirgantoro,
19:53SecGen GPI,
19:54then Mr. Bahrul Fikri,
19:56and Mr. Neliti Selyos.
19:57Okay.
19:58Mr. Fikri, if we talk about the movement
20:00of the Rupiah exchange rate,
20:01Central Bank, Bank Indonesia,
20:03in the end, they still maintain
20:05the level of 6%.
20:06Do you see this as an effort
20:08from our monitor
20:10to be able to maintain the movement
20:12of the Rupiah exchange rate
20:13to remain on the path
20:14that is in line with the expectations of many parties,
20:16in other words, stable there?
20:19Yes.
20:20For BIR itself,
20:22BIR itself is actually dilemmatic.
20:24We want to increase this dangerously,
20:27decrease it dangerously too.
20:29But it's like this,
20:30usually this Rupiah exchange rate
20:32will be responded
20:33by the increase in the debt rate,
20:35so that investors are still interested
20:36in buying state-of-the-art letters,
20:38or SBN.
20:39But what becomes a dilemma
20:41is the too expensive flower
20:43then causes the consequences
20:44of the fiscal space
20:45which narrows down
20:46to the crowding out effect,
20:48to the real sector.
20:49In this matter,
20:50investors and depositors
20:52will be more interested in buying SBN,
20:54for example,
20:55compared to investing
20:56in bank instruments
20:57and also disrupting
20:58the transfer of credit
20:59to the business world.
21:00Okay.
21:01That's it.
21:02Okay.
21:03Mr. Toto,
21:04from the business sector,
21:05especially exporting,
21:06what kind of incentives
21:07do you actually want
21:08besides that
21:09from the monitor
21:10that has been maintained
21:11according to the statement?
21:12Then,
21:13how about other policies,
21:14for example,
21:15fiscal,
21:16or do you see
21:17how the government
21:18can open up
21:19more gaps
21:20for us to work
21:21with the countries
21:22that we want
21:23for Indonesia's export products?
21:26Yes.
21:27Actually,
21:28there are many factors.
21:29Especially,
21:30what is in front of our eyes,
21:32as Mr. Fikri said,
21:35this January,
21:36BPN becomes 12%.
21:38Okay.
21:39This is actually
21:40very influential.
21:42So,
21:44we don't know.
21:46Where is the government
21:48in this economic situation?
21:51In this industry,
21:53we are also facing
21:57an extraordinary competition.
21:58Okay.
21:59Then,
22:00the world economy situation
22:01is not always good.
22:03If,
22:04like Trump said,
22:05the country is improving,
22:08what about us?
22:10I originally hoped
22:11that BPN will also return to 10%.
22:13Wow.
22:14Wow.
22:15Okay.
22:16Not 12%.
22:17With a new government.
22:19Then,
22:20the logistics sector
22:21is also improved.
22:22Yes.
22:23Because there is also
22:24one ironic thing.
22:26That the port
22:27is the gateway
22:28to our economy.
22:29That's right.
22:30But,
22:31the port
22:32with the 17th Law,
22:34the port
22:35becomes
22:36an operator
22:37and a monopoly.
22:39Then,
22:40the Minister of State-Owned Enterprises
22:41targets
22:42profit-oriented
22:43companies.
22:44Then,
22:45we will all be finished.
22:46Okay.
22:47Then,
22:48we should look
22:49at Thailand,
22:50and Vietnam.
22:52I have been there
22:53to see
22:54all of them.
22:55But,
22:56they all fell.
22:57All of them.
22:58So,
22:59their cost of logistics
23:00is far below
23:01our cost of logistics.
23:03If we want to talk about
23:05our industrial growth,
23:07it will also affect
23:08our economic growth.
23:09Right.
23:10These are
23:11some things
23:12that are
23:13actually
23:14our hope.
23:16It's the same
23:17with the financial
23:18trade condition.
23:21To be honest,
23:22why do we have
23:23so many
23:24industries
23:25that borrow money
23:26to Singapore?
23:27Because
23:28the flowers are
23:29much cheaper.
23:30So,
23:31we have been hit
23:32by many things
23:33in this country.
23:34Okay.
23:35These are
23:36the existing conditions.
23:38So,
23:39those are
23:42the things
23:43that we hope
23:44that
23:45we have to
23:46wait for.
23:47The government
23:48has to do
23:49some things.
23:50Right.
23:51Okay.
23:52That's the hope.
23:53So,
23:54from the fiscal
23:55side,
23:56it also becomes
23:57the government's
23:58presence
23:59in the business world.
24:00Okay.
24:01Mr. Wiki,
24:02what do you think
24:03about the rupee movement
24:04trend?
24:05Assuming that
24:06the macroeconomic
24:07assumption
24:08in the next year
24:09will affect
24:10our rupee value
24:11as well?
24:13Well,
24:14if we calculate
24:15it well,
24:16of course not.
24:17We know that
24:18the domestic economy
24:19is also not doing well.
24:20Okay.
24:21The society
24:22is getting worse.
24:24Moreover,
24:25there are many
24:26new policies.
24:27So,
24:28it's not
24:29threatening
24:30for the society
24:31in the next year.
24:32Especially
24:33the middle class
24:34is not only
24:35PPN 12%,
24:36but also
24:37there will be
24:38URN BPJS
24:39as well.
24:40Then,
24:41there is
24:42TAPERA
24:43and many more.
24:44Well,
24:45then,
24:46today,
24:47it's getting
24:48more and more
24:49taxable.
24:50Meanwhile,
24:51our fiscal burden
24:52is getting heavier
24:53because next year,
24:54we know
24:55that
24:56we have to
24:57pay the debt
24:58that's falling
24:59fast.
25:00Plus,
25:01Bunga,
25:02it's around
25:031,350 trillion.
25:04Wow,
25:05okay.
25:06The stronger the dollar
25:07against the rupee,
25:08of course,
25:09there will be
25:10a decrease
25:11in the interest rate
25:12that will be borne.
25:13Well,
25:14in the end,
25:15the budget deficit
25:16will widen.
25:17In fact,
25:18if this trend continues,
25:19our PBN 2025 deficit
25:20that was
25:21estimated
25:22at around
25:23600 trillion,
25:24maybe it can
25:25exceed
25:26more than
25:27600 trillion.
25:28And,
25:29it's getting closer
25:30to the 3% limit
25:31for domestic
25:32gross product.
25:33Yes,
25:34yes.
25:35Okay,
25:36that means
25:37that's what
25:38we still have
25:39in 2025
25:40until we see
25:41how later
25:42yes,
25:43again,
25:44the mitigation
25:45strategies that
25:46will be met
25:47by the government
25:48to maintain
25:49the stability
25:50of the rupee value
25:51which is also
25:52beneficial
25:53for the business
25:54world,
25:55then also
25:56the government
25:57itself,
25:58related to
25:59the provision
26:00of funds
26:01APBN.
26:02Okay,
26:03Mr. Toto,
26:04thank you
26:05very much
26:06for the time
26:07today.
26:08Thank you,
26:09Mr. Toto.