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00:00And we begin in Syria, where insurgents captured four new towns early Tuesday and are nearing
00:13the central city of Hama.
00:15This according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights War Monitor, which adds that
00:20this has been some of the most violent clashes so far.
00:25Syrian government forces also retook some territory they lost last week, but rebel groups
00:31have seized large swaths of the country in this offensive that was launched last week.
00:37In just days, they've reversed years of gains by forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad.
00:43Now Russian forces supporting Assad's regime are bombing rebel-controlled areas, causing
00:49hundreds of casualties and displacing nearly 50,000 people.
00:54Solange Mujan tells us more about the civilian toll.
00:59Filming in and staking their ground in this palace is a prize in and of itself for these
01:03insurgent fighters, for it had been one of President Bashar al-Assad's residences.
01:09The symbolic seizing was part of a lightning-fast storming of Aleppo, which began November 27th.
01:15It was, for the coalition of groups, the biggest success against the Assad regime in years.
01:22Clashes between a constellation of insurgents and Assad's troops and his allies have now
01:27broken out across the war-torn nation, killing hundreds.
01:31It has also upped the ante among different foreign powers involved in Syria.
01:35According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Iran-backed Iraqi soldiers have been
01:41crossing into Syria to support al-Assad troops, and Russian jets have been bombing the insurgent
01:46positions in the northwest, like in Idlib.
01:49For civilians, full-on war is back in their lives, in a conflict that began in 2011 with
01:55al-Assad's crackdown on democracy protests, but which had been largely frozen since 2020.
02:01We woke up to the sounds of terror, fear and airstrikes.
02:05I can't describe the horror we witnessed and what we felt.
02:09We live in a camp that's next to a family that was hit.
02:13The UN says they are alarmed by the escalation of the sudden violence, which has in less
02:18than a week displaced nearly 50,000 people.
02:22More than half of them are children.
02:25Syrians have endured the conflict for nearly 14 years.
02:29They deserve a political horizon that will deliver a peaceful future, not more bloodshed.
02:35With violent clashes continuing in places like Idlib, Hama and Deir al-Zor, but also
02:41elsewhere across Syria, the UN's Human Rights Office says that civilians are being killed
02:45in the crossfire.
02:47Adding to an already dire humanitarian situation, where nearly 17 million people in Syria depend
02:53daily on humanitarian aid.
02:57And for more on this conflict, we welcome Jérôme Dravan to the program.
03:02He is a senior analyst on jihad in modern conflict at the International Crisis Group,
03:07which is an NGO dedicated to preventing and resolving deadly conflict.
03:12Thank you so much for being here with us today on France 24.
03:17The leading insurgent group in this fight, the Islamist group Hayat al-Sham, this is
03:22a new entity, a new name for many people who don't follow Syria closely.
03:26Can you just explain who leads this group and how it's financed and supported?
03:33So Hayat al-Sham, or HTS, usually is referred to, is led by a militant called Abu Mohammed
03:40al-Jawlani, who was the founder of the Nusra Front, which was an affiliate of al-Qaeda.
03:47But he created this group in 2017 when he severed ties with the organization and wanted
03:51to do something that was more local, that was different, and that would be totally disconnected
03:55from global jihad.
03:57So it's independent, though it coordinates to some extent with Turkey for tactical issues.
04:04Can you tell us more about Turkey's role?
04:07There's so many different players here in this conflict, and I'm hoping you can help
04:12us understand better how they intersect.
04:14So what is Turkey's role in supporting the insurgents, and what is their interest?
04:22In the case of this battle, many armed groups were involved.
04:26Some of the armed groups are united under the so-called Syrian National Army, which
04:31is directly trained and equipped by Turkey, and those are located in the north of the
04:35city of Aleppo.
04:37But HTS and its allies are located in the Idlib province, and they are more independent
04:42from Turkey.
04:44They mostly act on their own, even though they receive some type of material support,
04:49some limited weaponry for the non-HTS groups.
04:53But there is still some coordination on military matters in order to understand how to best
04:58conduct military battles on the ground.
05:01And what do we know about the current state of the Syrian government and the Syrian army?
05:08Were they caught off guard by this offensive, and do they appear to be strengthening now
05:12or not?
05:13Now, if anything, it shows the succession of events last week show the ill-preparation
05:20of the Syrian army and of allied militias.
05:23The Syrian regime's military forces were unable to resist the onslaught of the armed opposition.
05:32They had to withdraw under pressure and to go back to the south of the Aleppo province
05:38next to the city of Hama.
05:40So now they might try to reinforce some of their defense lines, but I think it's unlikely
05:45for them to be able to get back to the north, including the city of Aleppo.
05:49They might try to push back to some extent, but I think that their level of organization
05:54will not allow them to lead a successful military campaign.
05:58Now, Russia and Iran have supported, have propped up the Syrian regime.
06:06They, of course, as we know, have been very intertwined and busy with their own conflicts
06:12in Ukraine for Russia and in Gaza and with Hezbollah for Iran.
06:20But when it comes to Russia stepping up airstrikes now inside Syria, this is having a terrible
06:26impact on civilians.
06:28But can Russia afford to continue to support Assad while it's fighting its own war in Ukraine?
06:36I think it can, because Russia's involvement in Syria is quite, it's quite low cost.
06:41It mostly consists in bombings, bombing civilian infrastructures, such as schools, hospitals,
06:48and so on.
06:49So it's not very costly for them because they don't need to have the same manpower that
06:53they have to mobilize for Ukraine, for example, because the manpower in Syria is mostly provided
06:57by Iran allied militias, such as the Hezbollah or Iraqi groups and so on.
07:04So the Russians are going to continue being involved.
07:07But at the same time, their limited involvement, in a way, means that they will be less likely
07:12to be able to retrieve some of these territories.
07:15So mostly what they can do is punish the civilian population that lives with the under position,
07:20but not really be able to push back the front lines.
07:24You said that Iran is providing the manpower for the Assad regime.
07:31What does that mean when you say that?
07:34That means that when the city of Aleppo was first taken by the regime by the late 2016,
07:41Russia destroyed the infrastructure of the armed opposition, and Iran linked militias
07:46coming from mostly from Iraq, mobilized on the ground.
07:49So they were the ones pushing and taking new territory, setting up defense lines, fighting
07:55directly with the insurgents.
07:57So that happened in 2016, but it's less likely to happen successfully now because those groups
08:02have been under pressure, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon.
08:06But also Iran might be looking at new ways of addressing the Trump administration, which
08:10means Iran might not be as likely to promote the presence of these militias in Syria.
08:17And that's without thinking of the Israeli cards.
08:22Israel might also be able to target those militias, thinking that they represent a long-term
08:26threat to its own security.
08:29The final player I want to ask you about are the Kurds, who are also a U.S. ally.
08:36What is their role currently?
08:39So the Kurds are mostly present in the eastern part of the country, where they control billions
08:43of civilians and really large parts of Syrian territory.
08:48They control some pockets around Aleppo, in the north of Aleppo in particular, and northeast
08:54of Aleppo.
08:55But there has been a real pushback by some of the groups more directly promoted and supported
09:01by Turkey.
09:02And so they had to negotiate some agreements with HTS and with other groups to be able
09:08to withdraw their forces because they knew that they couldn't really fight back.
09:11They didn't really have the military ability to do so.
09:15And finally, Jerome, as the insurgents appear to be nearing Hama, the fourth largest city
09:21in Syria, I'm interested in what you think will happen in Aleppo, the second largest
09:25is now controlled by insurgents.
09:27Do you think that the government is going to try to take the city back?
09:32And if they can't, what would governance look like there?
09:36So that would be a challenge for HTS and other opposition groups, because Aleppo is a very
09:41different city from the region that they are controlling in Idlib.
09:46They would have to deal with a population that's more diverse, that might not agree
09:50with their agenda.
09:51Some of them might be even fearful of their influence.
09:54So they would have to make concessions.
09:56They would have to address the fears of the population and find new ways of building new
10:01governance structures with them.
10:03So this is going to be very challenging for them.
10:06I think they've tried to express their desire to do so, but they will be judged accordingly.
10:11Jerome Dravan from the International Crisis Group, thank you so much for joining and helping
10:17us understand this really complicated story.
10:19Appreciate it.
10:21Bye.