日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年11月30日 「トランプ関税」再び…どうなる株・為替・物価
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TVTranscript
00:00Good morning.
00:13This is Nikkei Sato for News on November 30.
00:16Let me introduce today's guest.
00:19This is Kazuhiro Maeshima, a professor at the University of Tokyo, specializing in American politics.
00:24Good morning.
00:27This is Takashi Imamura, a researcher at the Marveni Institute of Economics, specializing in American politics.
00:36And this is Shunsuke Kobayashi, a chief economist at Mizuho Insurance Co., Ltd., specializing in domestic and international markets.
00:45Today, we will be thinking with these three guests.
00:49Let's take a look at the program.
00:55Mr. Yamakawa, let's talk about Trump's return to the theater.
01:01This week, the topic of tariffs has come up again.
01:05I feel that the days of Trump's SNS mumbling have begun again.
01:16In particular, there are various rumors that this tariff will lead to inflation.
01:22What will happen to the economy and the market?
01:26What kind of impact will it have on Japanese companies?
01:29What kind of preparation is necessary?
01:31I would like to focus on this topic.
01:34Mr. Yamakawa also said,
01:37It's the keyword, as expected.
01:41It says, up to Canada.
01:45I still understand Mexico, but up to Canada, the tariff was 25%.
01:53If this kind of story comes out in Canada, I feel that there will be additional tariffs all over the world, including Japan.
02:02I would like to read this today.
02:05After the commercial, let's talk about the impact of Trump's return to the theater on the economy.
02:22This is what President Trump was talking about during the presidential election.
02:31On the 25th, despite the president's inauguration,
02:35He said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on almost all imports from China via SNS.
02:45As a countermeasure against the importation of synthetic drugs, fentanyl, which is a social problem in the United States,
02:54He declared that he would impose tariffs until the import of drugs stops.
03:01In addition, he said that Mexico and Canada would also sign the presidential order to impose a 25% tariff on the first day of their inauguration.
03:13Fentanyl is mainly imported through Mexico.
03:18As long as there is no countermeasure against illegal immigration or drugs, both countries will pay a heavy price.
03:28Canada's Prime Minister Trudeau called Mr. Trump on the 25th.
03:33They talked about several issues, including border issues, that can be dealt with together over two hours.
03:43According to the American media, the Canadian government is already in the process of selecting the target item, including the consideration of imposing a return tariff.
03:56Also, on the 26th, President Shane Baum of Mexico made it clear that he would send a letter to Mr. Trump to encourage dialogue and cooperation.
04:06He warned that he would expose the business of both countries to risks.
04:10As a countermeasure, he suggested imposing a return tariff.
04:18In addition, the Chinese Embassy in the U.S.A. made it clear that there is no basis for the import of fentanyl, and that it is contrary to facts and reality.
04:30He emphasized that there is no winner in the trade war and the tariffs war.
04:36Of course, the impact of tariffs is not unavoidable for Japanese companies.
04:42In particular, in Mexico, there are many manufacturers of Japanese cars and automobiles, and it is seen that the impact cannot be avoided.
04:55President Tokura of the Federation of States
04:58Mr. Tokura of the Federation of States
05:00Mr. Tokura of the Federation of States
05:24What is Mr. Trump's aim?
05:28Also, how will the market react?
05:34Looking at Mr. Trump's policy, positive aspects such as regulations and tariffs are being exchanged.
05:43Negative aspects such as the concern about inflation and inflation are also being pointed out.
05:50In the first Trump administration, New York Dow Jones rose by more than 50%, but this time?
06:01The speech has been taken up before the inauguration.
06:04We can see the movement of the Trump administration.
06:07Today, we will talk about these three themes.
06:10The first is the impact of Trump's tariffs on the economy.
06:16Let's take a look at the economic situation of the Trump administration.
06:21The Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Besson, was appointed.
06:24He was the founder of the hedge fund, and he was also a major investor in the Trump administration in the presidential election.
06:31He is in favor of tariffs and cryptocurrency.
06:34The Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Ratnik, is also a major investor and CEO of a securities company.
06:41He is the co-chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and he is in favor of tariffs and cryptocurrency.
06:47Mr. Greer is the representative of the U.S. Trade and Investment Regulatory Commission.
06:52He is a lawyer specializing in international trade law.
06:55He was the chief secretary of the U.S. Trade and Investment Regulatory Commission during the first Trump administration.
06:59He is said to be deeply involved in medium-term tariffs and USMCA negotiations.
07:05Mr. Hassett is the chairman of the National Economic Council of the NEC.
07:10He is in favor of tariffs and cryptocurrency.
07:15The Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Naim, is in favor of the use of land owned by the federal government.
07:22He is in favor of the use of land owned by the federal government.
07:30He is also the chairman of the National Energy Conference.
07:35Mr. Elon Musk is in favor of the replacement of the newly established government efficiency award.
07:41He is said to have invested more than $3 trillion in Tesla and SpaceX.
07:46He acquired Twitter in 2022 and greatly reduced his personnel.
07:52Mr. Yamakawa.
07:53I have just told you about the tariffs related to the economy.
07:58Mr. Maeshima, how do you feel?
08:01This is the dream team that Mr. Trump is thinking of.
08:05In the economy, all of them are like their own clones.
08:13I think Trump clones will do their best.
08:17I would like to say one more thing.
08:19As a result of the election, there is something like a Trump victory.
08:23If you look at the data, there is a 1.6% difference.
08:26In addition, in the second term, the number of people in the private sector has increased.
08:30The majority is the Republican Party.
08:32In other words, the public opinion of the Republican Party supporters is now Trump's victory.
08:37This is a very thin victory.
08:41Before that part is divided, I want to show that I am doing my best in the private sector.
08:50Mr. Imamura, what do you think?
08:52Yes.
08:53After all, this time we can see that they are serious about the replacement tax.
08:57The Secretary of State is trying to do it firmly on behalf of the USTR.
09:01In the first place, the winners of this election have gathered the support of the working class across generations.
09:09Mr. Trump is very faithful to his promise.
09:12In addition, he is said to be a very strong person who is more willing to repay the people who helped him.
09:19To answer this question, it is not just about the replacement tax and the trade deficit.
09:24He also has a long-term goal of regaining the love of the manufacturing industry in the United States.
09:28I think the realization is quite difficult.
09:31On the other hand, the Secretary of State has shown that the stock market is also important.
09:42Mr. Kobayashi.
09:43Yes.
09:44I feel that the contrast between attack and defense is quite outstanding.
09:49As Mr. Imamura said earlier, the seriousness of the replacement tax seems to be quite high.
09:54This part of the attack seems to be quite strong.
09:57Mr. Ratnik is quite principled.
10:01Mr. Greer is also well aware of the trade deficit and the law.
10:07How can we apply the replacement tax?
10:10How does it work?
10:13It is expected that they will attack China to a considerable extent.
10:18On the other hand, Mr. Bessent is symbolic.
10:23Even if the replacement tax is applied, if it is applied too much, there is a risk that inflation will occur and the interest rate will soar.
10:30I have the impression that the defense management is also looking at this area.
10:37Mr. Maeshima.
10:38Yes.
10:39Originally, Mr. Lighthizer, also known in Japan as Mr. Lighthizer, was said to enter somewhere.
10:47But when I open the lid, I can't hear it yet.
10:50What should I do about that?
10:51Mr. Lighthizer was the closest person to the people of the Republic of China on January 6, 2021.
11:02They were playing golf every week.
11:04I'm surprised that they didn't join because they knew each other.
11:08In other words, it seems that they are working to create a position where they can advise Trump's economy as a whole with a White House-like position, rather than a minister of finance, a minister of commerce, or a USTR.
11:21Maybe it's a vice minister.
11:23I don't know if it's a vice minister or not, but it's like a vice minister.
11:30In other words, they are managing various things around the White House.
11:35It's a key person to connect with Trump and strengthen Trump's position.
11:40It seems that they want to do that.
11:42Mr. Imamura, I'm only interested in Elon Musk, but what kind of impact will it have?
11:49Originally, under the Biden administration or the Democratic administration, the risk of restricting their own business has increased, and they can't do this.
11:56In fact, they are doing a lot of things in collaboration with NASA.
12:01Thanks to that, they can develop the universe at their own pace.
12:06I think they're going to destroy it.
12:09And they're getting closer to Trump.
12:12There was also a temperament.
12:14In a sense, they're two lonely people.
12:17I think the current position is that these two lonely people have come together and become a buddy.
12:23Mr. Kobayashi, in terms of the market, do you think she's a woman with a sense of stability?
12:30Or do you think there are a lot of consequences?
12:33Yes, I think it's being exchanged at the moment.
12:38However, when I think of the first wave, there were quite a few people who disappeared right after the outbreak.
12:45It's new to me that the turn of events was relatively early.
12:51As I said earlier, it's a contrast between attack and defense.
12:54It's a little bit like that.
12:56It's a little bit like that.
13:01There's a high possibility that human relations will be disturbed.
13:05In that case, it's more safe to say that people with a strong attitude to attack will come out.
13:13However, if there are no people who have a sense of balance and are able to manage their defense well, it will be difficult.
13:23At this point in time, we can do both attack and defense.
13:27It's a little bit of a reduction in taxes, but it's a plus for the U.S. economy.
13:32That's how it's been evaluated.
13:34What's going to happen?
13:36Let's talk about the taxes that are most interesting right now.
13:40President Trump has stated that he will impose taxes on each country, including China, from the presidential election.
13:48For example, China will impose a 60% tax on goods.
13:53Mexico will impose a 25% tax on goods and a 100% tax on automobiles.
13:58He said he would impose a 10% to 20% tax on all imports from other countries.
14:05And on the 25th, Trump said on his own social media that he would impose a 10% tax on almost all imports from China.
14:17This is a countermeasure to stop the flow of synthetic drugs, fentanyl.
14:23And not only China, but also Canada and Mexico, a USMCA member state bordering China.
14:30On the first day of his term as president, he said he would sign a presidential order that would impose a 25% tax.
14:37This is to continue until illegal immigration and the end of drugs and milk.
14:42Mr. Imamura, this is how it came out. What do you think?
14:47Yes, I think that the US is using tariffs as a weapon to make deals with other countries.
14:57I think that the US is evolving from tariffs as a negotiation tool between trade partners in the economy.
15:05I think that the US is evolving from tariffs as a negotiation tool between trade partners in the economy.
15:13I think that the US is evolving from tariffs as a negotiation tool between trade partners in the economy.
15:16I think that the US is evolving from tariffs as a negotiation tool between trade partners in the economy.
15:19This is the sentiment that has been fully introduced.
15:28It even includes Canada, but what do you think is going to happen when it actually gets approved?
15:31We need to make sure that illegal immigrants are forced to return to Canada, and we need to prevent them from entering Canada.
15:37We need to do everything that the Biden administration couldn't do.
15:41We need to do everything we can on the first day of immigration.
15:44That's the reason why we started this campaign.
15:49In fact, the number of illegal immigrants from Canada is not that small.
15:55I think it's an appeal to both sides to do something different.
16:00Trump calls himself a typhoon man.
16:07As Mr. Imamura said, illegal immigrants are coming from places that have nothing to do with the economy.
16:17For example, it is safe to think about the future.
16:20For example, it may be possible to impose tariffs on the United States because it does not burden the military.
16:25But the problem is that it is a weapon.
16:28If we actually impose tariffs on the United States, it may be a burden on the American people.
16:33We want to avoid that.
16:35However, I think it would be better to do it now because the U.S. economy is doing well.
16:41I think we should do it in full throttle from the beginning.
16:44Mr. Kobayashi, what do you think?
16:46Yes.
16:47I think it was a big surprise to hear that the U.S. was going to impose tariffs on Canada.
16:57It was easy to understand that China, which has been a rival in terms of security guarantees, would attack Canada.
17:07However, the level of tariffs on the U.S. has escalated.
17:12If you look back, 25% of the tariffs were imposed on China in the first phase.
17:21As a result, exports from China to the U.S. have certainly decreased.
17:26However, there is a case where exports through Mexico and Vietnam have increased dramatically.
17:33The second challenge was how to prevent this.
17:37However, I think the U.S. has done it diagonally.
17:43In particular, there is a possibility that Mexico is aware that China is using it for its own benefit.
17:50Let's take a look at the share.
17:53Trump issued an additional tariff on China in 2018.
17:58The target item is more than 10,000 items.
18:01In addition, China also took countermeasures and a trade war broke out between the U.S. and China.
18:06The tariff on China was also pulled by the Biden administration.
18:10In September of this year, the tariff on EVs, electric vehicles, and batteries was raised.
18:16And China was the top shareholder in the U.S. in terms of importing goods.
18:20However, after the tariff was raised, the share dropped rapidly.
18:24Mexico and Canada are the ones that are growing.
18:28Only these three countries make up 40% of U.S. imports.
18:32If you look at this graph, you can see that China is losing its share.
18:36However, Mexico is using it for its own benefit.
18:40ASEAN is also using it for its own benefit.
18:43Japan is also losing its share.
18:46However, some EV manufacturers are based in Mexico.
18:51That's one point.
18:53Mr. Imamura, you said that the tariff on EVs was a big deal during the Trump administration.
19:03But now that the Biden administration is following suit,
19:06and adding more tariffs to improve economic security,
19:10it's not something that only the Republican Party is doing.
19:14There's a continuity to it.
19:17How should we read this?
19:19The U.S. Congress is more aggressive than the Trump administration and Biden administration.
19:24If you listen to what they have to say,
19:26you can see that the Trump administration is trying to get rid of China.
19:33I don't think it's possible for the Biden administration to be the queen.
19:38The Biden administration is trying to build a more just system from the bottom up.
19:44On the other hand, the Trump administration is trying to get rid of China.
19:48There are differences in methods,
19:50but they're trying to get rid of China.
19:52They're trying to decouple China.
19:55They've been doing this for more than 10 years.
19:59Mr. Maeshima, when you do this,
20:02it's not all of it, but the price of goods is increasing,
20:07and there's an influx of people.
20:09There's a voice that says we need to stop this.
20:15Mr. Trump, even if there's an influx of people,
20:19do you have the will to keep doing this?
20:23What do you think about that?
20:25It's subtle.
20:27Basically, it's going to be an influx of people.
20:30But an influx of people is bad.
20:33Trump's behavior is basically based on his supporters' opinions.
20:39He doesn't want an influx of people.
20:41He doesn't want an influx of people.
20:43That's why he's trying to get rid of China.
20:45That's why he's trying to get rid of China.
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25:49After the commercial break, let's talk about the impact of the Trump administration's policies on the market.
26:03We've heard a lot about Trump's policies on the market.
26:07Now, let's talk about the Trump administration's economic policies.
26:10Let's talk about the Trump rally.
26:14First of all, let's check how the stock market was doing in the Trump administration.
26:20From January 2017, when Trump took office, the stock market rose by about 56% in the four years from January 2021 to January 2021.
26:29At present, the stock market is at its peak as usual, and the U.S. economy is booming.
26:35And the stock market.
26:37The fluctuation of the dollar-yen market is not very large, and it has continued to be at a higher level than it is now.
26:43At the end of June this year, when the Biden administration entered the yen-loss direction, the yen-loss advanced to the 160-yen level, which was the first time in 38 years.
26:53Recently, it broke the 150-yen level yesterday and hit the 149-yen level.
26:59The first phase was the stock price, and then it was a slight dollar-loss.
27:08Mr. Kobayashi, how do you see the second phase, including whether the previous one will be helpful?
27:16Yes, I think that Trump's policy has the effect of temporarily raising the stock price, but I think that the sustainability is low.
27:30Temporarily raising the stock price means that the company's profits will be boosted by the imposed tax, of course.
27:37In addition, even if you look at the size of the tax on assets, it means that the tax will be imposed more than the tax on taxes.
27:44It's very stimulating.
27:46So, first of all, temporarily, it's easy to connect to the stock price as a first impact.
27:52Also, I think it's easy to raise the interest rate and become a dollar-loss.
27:57But it doesn't last long.
27:59It's the same with the Trump administration in the first phase, but there has never been a Republican administration that has been a dollar-loss.
28:07The reason for this is that it benefits the rich.
28:12Conversely, I think you could say that it doesn't give much money to the poor.
28:18Even if you look at the current tax law, the tax on legal entities and high-income people has a very large weight.
28:26Even if you impose a tax on people, they don't spend much money.
28:31On the other hand, if you impose a lot of taxes, the cost of living will go up, so the poor will be in trouble.
28:39Then, people who have a higher average income who spend more money will get more money, so they won't have GDP.
28:47Then, in the second half, the stock price and the dollar will fall.
28:51I think there have been a lot of things like this in the past.
28:54As a result of the election this time, the most surprising thing for politicians is that the poor voted for Trump and the rich voted for ICE.
29:03Then I thought about it, and when I heard Mr. Kobayashi's story, I wondered how the poor people who voted for Trump would run away.
29:11I've been watching the midterm elections for 26 years now, and when I think about it,
29:18there are a lot of people who think that the members of the House of Representatives will be overturned, and there are a lot of people who think that the members of the House of Representatives will be overthrown,
29:25so I wonder what will happen.
29:27That's what politicians think.
29:29When I think about it, I wonder how this policy will work, how Trump will promote it, and whether the stock price will go up.
29:38What about you, Mr. Imamura?
29:40If you look at the menu of the election campaign that is scheduled now, there is only a policy that expands the gap.
29:49On the other hand, the labor class won this time, so if you try to respond to this,
29:54you probably have no choice but to depend on the high-performance manufacturing industry and the domestic economy, where you can't see the way to success.
30:01Or, you can force people to immigrate illegally.
30:06By doing this, you can launch a good policy, but you don't care much about the results.
30:13Maybe you're aware that it's probably over in four years.
30:18If you think about it for eight years, it might be a more cautious policy,
30:23but I think there's an awareness that you don't care if you destroy the United States.
30:30Again, Mr. Kobayashi, are you looking at the stock price going down this time as well?
30:38In the four years of popularity, I think the possibility is high enough.
30:44But as I said earlier, there is a possibility that the stock price will fall in the middle.
30:49That's right.
30:51As for the stock price, if you leave it alone, it will expire in 2026,
30:57so we're trying to make it more expensive.
31:01That means the stock price will probably be through next year.
31:05I think that's probably the peak of the stock price going up.
31:11The stock price will go up at the start of the year, and then it won't go down.
31:15I think that's the kind of development.
31:17And what I'm curious about is the stock price.
31:19At the time of the Trump administration, the inflation did not progress much due to the influence of the new coronavirus.
31:25Since the Biden administration, the stock price has continued to rise over the period of recovery from the coronavirus.
31:31In June 2022, it rose by 9.1%.
31:35Inflation prevention laws and the increase in FRBs have reduced the number of consumer stocks by 2.4% in September.
31:43In October, it rose again by 2.6%.
31:47And whether or not it will be an inflation, there are theories that it will accelerate inflation and there are theories that it won't.
31:55It's a policy like the one Trump is going to do, but it's said to accelerate inflation.
32:03The rise in inflation is a sign of an increase in import stocks.
32:07And the decline in immigration is a sign of a shortage of people and a sign of a low inflation.
32:11The rise in inflation is a sign of a low inflation.
32:16However, Chief Analyst Maki Ogawa of the Sony Financial Group said in Washington that inflation will not accelerate.
32:27The rise in inflation does not mean that inflation will continue to rise every year, so the impact is temporary.
32:34The decline in immigration is a sign of a shortage of people and a sign of a low inflation.
32:41However, there is also a view that the rise in inflation will not affect the economy as much as it has been in the past 26 years.
32:49In addition, if fossil fuels are promoted, the price of goods and gasoline will go down, so the price of goods will go down.
32:57Mr. Imamura, there are theories on both sides.
33:00But looking back eight years ago, America was whispered about as a long-term stagnant economy.
33:06It was thought that it would become a stagnant economy like Japan.
33:11It was thought that it would become a stagnant economy like Japan.
33:14It's still a good situation.
33:16Even though inflation has fallen, there is still a little heat left.
33:19If you start from there and try to do something like the first wave,
33:23I think it's true that the economy will go ahead and inflation will not accelerate.
33:28It's different from the first wave.
33:30Mr. Kobayashi.
33:31I completely agree.
33:33The economic environment is completely different from the first wave.
33:36In that sense, I think it's a situation that is easy to bounce back.
33:40Also, in the case of the last wave, the impact of inflation was small because there was an outflow.
33:46However, if it is blocked, the impact will be greater.
33:49If you dare to raise the deflation, the supply of energy at the end will increase and the price will go down.
33:55I think it's about how to connect with this.
33:59I have to think about what the Secretary of the Treasury is thinking.
34:04This Besentoshi is a 3-3-3 policy.
34:10Actually, I learned a little from Prime Minister Abe's Abenomics.
34:14It's three arrows.
34:16I learned and said something like this.
34:19Reduce GDP growth by 3% by 2028.
34:25Reduce GDP growth by 3% by 2028.
34:29Increase oil production by 3 million barrels per day.
34:33Basically, it's a high-pressure economy.
34:37By increasing the growth by 3% more and more,
34:41It will bring in more taxes and make the economy healthier.
34:45That's one of the reasons I'm talking about oil.
34:50Mr. Maeshima, how should we look at this?
34:53I don't know what to say.
34:56It's 3-3-3. It's easy to understand.
34:59It's easy to understand even if you can't actually realize it.
35:02I love Trump.
35:04I don't remember what 999 was in the presidential election.
35:08Everyone only remembers 3-3-3.
35:11Then I feel like it's getting better.
35:14I think this is a big point.
35:16But what I didn't put in here is the previous inflation.
35:19What about inflation?
35:21Mr. Bessento was completely negative at first.
35:24But after the Trump administration began to be seen,
35:27In various media,
35:29If you look at what was written in the media,
35:32You can see that there is a high degree of inflation.
35:35I don't know what's really going on.
35:38But we can't forget 3-3-3.
35:42How about you, Mr. Imamura?
35:45Especially the third 300 million barrels is almost impossible.
35:49Each oil production company thinks about the cost.
35:54They do it for their own profit.
35:57If it's like this, I think it's going to be about $65 per barrel.
36:00Maybe that's what they're aiming for.
36:02It's a red-leaf industry.
36:04If that's the case, there's no reason to dig.
36:06Or even Mr. Bessento,
36:08Stable economic and stock prices,
36:10While raising the stock price,
36:12And put in the exchange tax.
36:14It's a really difficult job.
36:16I feel like I've been pulled in a lot.
36:183-3-3 is easy to understand.
36:20It's what Mr. Abe did when he was in the Trump administration.
36:24I learned that.
36:26It's like copying is important.
36:28Mr. Bessento has a more modern idea.
36:31It's about rewriting the world economy.
36:33It's a production that takes up some of the menus for that.
36:37Rather, the way of thinking behind it,
36:39It's really convincing.
36:42Mr. Bessento has an idea of what he wants to achieve.
36:46That's why he's in the Trump administration.
36:48That's one aspect of it.
36:50The world is relying on the excessive consumption of the United States.
36:53This structure is a brain for American workers.
36:56It's a perfect way to change that.
36:59In particular, the debate has become more precise.
37:03But it's a matter of whether or not it can be done.
37:06After the announcement,
37:08Let's think about the impact on Japanese companies.
37:103-3-3
37:14We've seen the impact of the Trump administration and the market.
37:18Here's the third one.
37:20How should Japanese companies be prepared?
37:23Let's take a look at this.
37:25What kind of things will President Trump demand of Japan in the next term?
37:29I've been thinking about it.
37:31Here's the typical one.
37:33Increase in trade costs.
37:35More direct investment from Japan.
37:37Import of agricultural products.
37:39Improvement of trade revenue.
37:41Import of energy.
37:43Contribution, etc.
37:45Mr. Mayeshima.
37:47What kind of approach will the Trump administration take to Japan?
37:50That's what I'm most interested in.
37:52Basically, Japan is making a lot of money by exporting to the United States.
37:58That's why Japan wants to buy more American products.
38:02It's a strong message to contribute to the United States.
38:06But if you think about it seriously,
38:08I think it's different for each country.
38:10Japan has invested so much in the United States.
38:13It supports the employment of the United States.
38:15And it's spending more and more money than other countries.
38:18What more can it spend?
38:20But we have to say that Japan will continue to work with the United States
38:24while keeping up with Trump's selfishness.
38:28A lot of things will come out.
38:30I think there will be more and more.
38:32Mr. Imamura.
38:34I'd like to add one more thing.
38:36It's a digital red flag.
38:38We're paying for almost all of the services we're using in the U.S.
38:43Japan is paying for it.
38:45And it's going to get bigger and bigger.
38:48The shape of Japan's economy is going to get worse.
38:52That's what the Japanese government is worried about.
38:55From now on, we're going to pay this much for the U.S.
38:58I think we should appeal to them.
39:00But the Trump administration's red flag is easy to understand.
39:04I don't know if you can see it.
39:06I don't think they understand that we're paying this much for the U.S.
39:12And they're not even our supporters.
39:15It's quite difficult.
39:17But I think we should say that we're paying for it.
39:19Mr. Kobayashi, what do you think?
39:21I think it's up to them to explain this properly.
39:25The current issue of trade and service spending is the same.
39:29We're doubling our defense spending.
39:31We're investing directly from Japan.
39:34We want energy.
39:36If we explain this properly, I think they'll understand.
39:41If there's a chance, it's in the lower right.
39:45Contribution to the semiconductor industry.
39:48Certainly, the U.S. has not yet succeeded in the domesticization of high-end semiconductors.
39:54It's relying on Taiwan.
39:55That's why there's a psychological risk.
39:58I think it's a win-win relationship.
40:04I think we have all the materials to negotiate this.
40:09Japan, which you mentioned earlier, is already making a lot of contributions to the U.S.
40:15I'm referring to the material by Hosokawa, which you showed on this show the other day.
40:26In terms of exports, Japan is sixth or fifth in the U.S.
40:32In terms of direct investment, Japan is number one.
40:39In terms of investment, Japan is quite big.
40:43In terms of trade and service spending, Japan is ahead.
40:48In terms of direct investment, Japan contributes the most.
40:52Mr. Imamura, when Trump was in power, Mr. Abe appealed to Japan.
41:01Japan has been contributing to the U.S. for a long time.
41:04Japan is not contributing to the U.S. for Trump's sake.
41:07In the deep industrial structure of the U.S., there are a lot of old industries.
41:13Japan has been able to improve its own way of doing business.
41:17Japan is making a lot of money.
41:19Japanese companies are facing a shortage of people in Japan.
41:23They don't think much about domestic employment.
41:25They are rare in the world where direct investment can be made in the U.S.
41:29That's why they are a win-win combination.
41:33In fact, the U.S. is a country with a lot of money.
41:39In terms of service industry and finance, it's investing in a lot of things.
41:45Mr. Kobayashi, if you really invest in money from now on,
41:50the U.S. will be the most protected market from China's export of deflation.
41:57In other words, there is a possibility that even if Japan invests, it will be a safe market.
42:03That's right.
42:04Rather than exporting from Japan, China, or other countries,
42:07in a sense, it will be a safe country.
42:11So, if the cost is right, it will become an area where you want to invest more.
42:18However, if that movement accelerates too much,
42:21I wonder if Japan's employment will be okay next time.
42:24What do you think about that?
42:26I think it used to be a big problem.
42:29But now, as in the U.S., the unemployment rate in Japan is very low.
42:35Specifically, it's in the first half of the 2% range.
42:38So, even if factories in Japan go out of business,
42:43we won't be able to operate them because we don't have enough people.
42:46In that sense, if you invest in the U.S. and factories go out,
42:50the big problem is that the situation is no longer the same as it used to be.
42:54I think the situation is no longer the same as it was in the 1990s and 2000s.
42:58It's a part where Trump says,
43:02Yes, that's right.
43:05However, there are some parts that he doesn't understand.
43:07As I said earlier, he only looks at trade.
43:09This is a trend.
43:11Last week, there was a meeting in Mt. Fuji.
43:15A lot of Americans were there.
43:17I was one of the members.
43:19We talked a lot.
43:20But now, the U.S. is pulling a large-scale pipeline from Alaska.
43:25Japan is buying from the U.S. and coming to Southeast Asia.
43:31There are a lot of things going on.
43:33Trump's shift, along with the explanation,
43:36and the energy demand for Japan that I mentioned earlier.
43:39Can you show it again?
43:40I think this part is also moving.
43:42This part on the right.
43:44The energy on the right.
43:46Mr. Maeshima, in Japan,
43:49there is talk of LNG rather than coal as an environmental solution.
43:54There is also a competition for LNG.
43:56If you dig more and more gas,
43:59there is a way to appeal that you will buy it earlier.
44:03That's what we're doing now.
44:05We want to sell the U.S. that Japan wants.
44:07But where do we start the pipeline?
44:09Wouldn't it be better to do it on a ship?
44:11There are a lot of stories.
44:13But Mr. Bergam, the chief executive,
44:16is a person who really digs and digs for energy.
44:19He seems to really like this kind of thing.
44:22It seems that everyone is approaching Japan in this way.
44:26The person in the middle.
44:30Let's listen to the voice of Japanese companies.
44:34This is the reaction of the Japanese industry when Trump won the election.
44:39This is about the complete withdrawal.
44:41President Aoyama of Honda considers production in countries that cannot be targeted if they are high-end.
44:49President Uchida of Nissan wants to pay close attention to the direction of business.
44:54President Fukuhara of Tohre,
44:56It is hard to believe that only in the United States,
44:59the supply chain of manufacturing will be established.
45:02And about energy,
45:04President Ishii of Ito Co., Ltd.
45:06He points out that there is a possibility that the direction of carbon emissions will change with Europe.
45:12About exchange.
45:13President Nitori of Nitori is not sure if it will be cheap or expensive.
45:18President Yamamoto of Wow Wow
45:20imports movies and drama content.
45:23He says he is wary of sudden cheap imports.
45:27President Tokura of Kedanre
45:29There is a risk that the impact on Japanese companies will be serious.
45:32He says he wants to pay attention to it.
45:35The points that concern each industry and company are different.
45:40Mr. Imamura, as a whole, where is the importance of Japanese companies?
45:46Yes.
45:47In fact, we are able to prepare in advance.
45:50Mr. Sato, as a result, is aiming for the domestic market of the United States.
45:54Mr. Trump, as I have heard,
45:56welcomes the advance of foreign companies in the United States.
45:59He says he wants to produce in the United States.
46:01That's exactly what he's doing.
46:03In that respect, the impact is of course still in the trade.
46:06Or there are parts that come out in countries other than the United States.
46:10I don't think it's a country in the world that Mr. Trump has to take care of.
46:16What will happen after four years?
46:21Mr. Trump's first two years or four years.
46:26Is it okay to move the production base just for this?
46:30That's also a concern.
46:32I don't think there is a company that can't be moved in that respect.
46:36From the point of view that the United States will continue to be one of the leading countries in the world,
46:41I think there are very few companies that can do that in the two years of Mr. Trump.
46:50That's all for this week.
46:53This is the only story you can hear from Caster Fujii.
47:00You can watch it on Teletubbies.
47:02It will be uploaded next Tuesday.
47:04This week's guest is Mr. Kobayashi.
47:08After the break, let's take a look at the market.
47:17Our guest for tomorrow's Sunday Sunday Salon is Mr. Keisuke Suzuki.
47:22He will talk about the reform of the Political Fund Restriction Act and the selection of a husband and wife.
47:27Please enjoy.
47:29Let's take a look at the market.
47:31The New York Dow Jones rebounded in the New York stock market on the 29th.
47:36The ending price was $44,910, which is $188.
47:41Nasdaq, which has a high ratio of high-debt stocks, also rebounded.
47:44The ending price rose by 157 points to $19,218.
47:49The New York foreign exchange market's ending price was $1.49, which is $1.49 per yen, from 70,000 to 80,000.
47:58The average daily income in Chicago is $38,300.
48:02It is about $90 higher than the average daily income on Friday.
48:07And I asked the market officials about the stock price forecast for the end of December.
48:11The Japanese stock research institute's estimate is $39,000.
48:15It is expected that the market will improve slightly if the recent yen-high trend is eased.
48:20The U.S. economic index, which will be released in December, is also expected to work in the direction of pushing the stock price up.
48:26And Mizuho Mura, from Mizuho Prefecture, also expects the stock price to be $39,000.
48:31The U.S. stock market will be in the second half of December.
48:34There is also the so-called Christmas rally.
48:38There is a high possibility that the U.S. stock market will go up in the highest price in history.
48:43The Japanese stock market's rising rate is expected to be long under the U.S. stock market.
48:48There are all the expectations.
48:50Yes.
48:51Then let's look at next week's schedule.
48:53Mr. Iwata, you are holding employment statistics on Friday.
48:56In Japan, we also have monthly labor statistics.
48:59How is it?
49:00Yes, next week's employment statistics are very important.
49:03Whether or not there is a decrease in employment in the December FOMC,
49:07the market is reading it as a gobbledygook.
49:11So, in this employment statistics,
49:13for example, if the unemployment rate rises,
49:16it will be a flow that will bring down the unemployment rate at once.
49:20However, if the unemployment rate falls,
49:22there will be no decrease this time.
49:24So, I think that the direction of economic recovery will be shaken by this.
49:29So, at the time of the announcement,
49:31there is a possibility that the market will move considerably.
49:34Yes, I think it is very high.
49:36Yes, I understand.
49:37That's all for today.
49:50For more information, visit www.fema.gov
50:20For more information, visit www.fema.gov