Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Now, to get a better sense of what's happening in the north of Syria, we can speak now with
00:04Marc Perrini, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and former EU ambassador to Turkey.
00:11Thank you, Pierre. Thank you for joining us on France 24. Now, Syria has been in civil war for
00:18more than a decade, but intense fighting had somewhat subsided. Why has it flared up again now?
00:25Well, I think the surprise operation by HTS in the province of Aleppo rests primarily on popular
00:35discontent, because as you've said, the Assad regime has retaken control of the province and
00:43the city of Aleppo in 2016, but has not restored the state authority in the city, and more
00:52importantly, has not restored normal life for the citizens. So there is a huge discontent.
00:59And at the same time, Russia is, of course, otherwise busy in Ukraine, and the Iranian
01:07forces, the Pazdurans, have seen their command and control system in Syria degraded by Israel
01:16for other reasons linked to the situation in Lebanon. So that was the opportunity for
01:22Ayatollah Shah. Now, how long this is going to last, we don't know. It all depends, I think,
01:30at this point, on the Russian attitude. So kind of capitalizing on an opportunity. So
01:36the surprise attacks then began on Wednesday. That was the day when a ceasefire between Israel
01:41and Lebanon's Hezbollah took effect. Is there then any significance to the timing of this?
01:47Probably only remotely. I think the hope of the HCS leadership in this operation is to capitalize
01:59on popular discontent, on the fact that the Syrian army, the regime army, is very weak,
02:07and is really sustained and operational only because Russia is there. And also, as I said,
02:17the Iranian fighters were a little bit lost at this point. Now, Russia cannot afford to lose
02:27Syria for two reasons. One is diplomatic. Whether we like it or not, Syria is the only diplomatic
02:37success, so to say, of Russia. It's a success typical of Russian operations outside. That is,
02:45they prevail. Their client regime, Assad, is prevailing, but they are sitting on a field of
02:51rubble. Yet it is a small operation for Syria, for Russia in Syria, I mean. So they can afford
03:01to continue. They have an important airbase in Latakia. So they will continue. The second reason
03:09is that Russia, this airbase in particular, is a springboard for Russian operations in Africa,
03:18in the Sahel, in Central Africa. Their airplanes, their cargo planes can stop there. Their fighter
03:24planes can stop there, be refueled, and fly towards Russia. So it has also a strategic
03:32importance for Russia. And could you tell us more about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,
03:39the Islamist group that's leading the fighting now and its influence in northern Syria?
03:46Well, they are influential in the province of Idlib, immediately west of Aleppo, and now in
03:53Aleppo, not so much elsewhere. They've been initially trained and equipped by Turkey.
03:59And now the difficulty is, of course, that Turkey is indirectly involved in this operation. Not
04:06probably that it triggered the operation. It's not looking like it's in the interest of Turkey.
04:12But they've been historically behind HTS. Turkey's overwhelming objective in Syria is different.
04:21It's to keep a large, very deep buffer zone in the north of Syria, at the border of Turkey,
04:29to keep the Syrian Kurdish forces away from Turkish territory. They've done that in several
04:37places, mostly to the east of Aleppo. They're present also in the Idlib province to the west.
04:45They want to keep that. They also want to reconcile with the Assad regime that has been
04:52stated officially by President Erdogan. But of course, the main condition that Bashar
04:58al-Assad is putting to normalization, let's say, is that the entire Turkish contingent
05:05evacuates to the north of Syria, which, of course, is not the objective of Ankara.
05:12So we're stuck, essentially. And the likelihood in the coming days is that in order to
05:21rescue the Assad regime and help it regain control of the Aleppo province and city,
05:28they will do it as they've done everywhere, that is, with massive air force strikes,
05:35which involves few soldiers, few airmen, but will destroy a bit further the city of Aleppo and
05:49will kill a number of people and also damage the historical heritage that is present in Aleppo.
05:57So many regional players are involved in this. Israel also says it struck Hezbollah targets
06:02near Syria's border with Lebanon. Is there a risk that the situation in Syria could
06:07threaten to reverse the relative calm in Lebanon?
06:14Probably not in the sense that whenever Israel wanted to strike either Hezbollah or
06:23the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, at least their command and control and their ammunition depot
06:33in Syria, they've done it. So the link there is not very direct. This is a Syrian-Syrian operation
06:45with immense confusion and probably a very strong assault of the Russian and Syrians
06:56combined through the air force, which will do a lot of damage, alas.
07:02Well, Marc Pierini from Carnegie Europe, thank you so much for your analysis.