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00:00We got a great game tonight in Los Angeles to end out week 12.
00:04It's the Harbaugh between Jim Harbaugh and the Los Angeles Chargers and John Harbaugh.
00:10Oh, you know what? Actually, we don't need to talk about the game.
00:13The Ravens are a two and a half point favorite.
00:15Congrats, Baltimore, on your eighth win of the season.
00:18Well done.
00:20You know what I like about this game?
00:22Two quality teams matching up in the NFL because you don't get that in college football quite a bit.
00:28You saw that on Saturday when Ohio State ran roughshod over Indiana.
00:32You won't see that tonight, probably, because you got two good football teams going toe-to-toe,
00:36equally deserving to be on the field.
00:38For my idea of this football game tonight, though, with Jim Harbaugh, I don't think so, man.
00:42We'll go with John.
00:43Thanks, John.
00:44I think his younger brother takes this game tonight.
00:47No doubt you do.
00:48You love the spread.
00:49Two and a half points.
00:50The flock have already won.
00:52Baltimore was a favorite last week in Pittsburgh.
00:54I think they won that game.
00:55Baltimore was a touchdown favorite on the road against Jamis Winston in his first start.
00:59I think they won that game, too.
01:01Yeah.
01:02Yeah.
01:03Colorado was a three-point favorite on the road.
01:06And Arrowhead against the Jayhawks.
01:07I think they won that game.
01:08What's Cleveland's strength this week?
01:09I think they won that game.
01:09I think it's better than Indiana's.
01:11I think it's better than Indiana's.
01:12Well, based on the NFL, yeah, I think it certainly is.
01:15Oh, it's good to know.
01:17Penn State was an 11 and a half point favorite in the Twin Cities against the Golden Gophers.
01:21They won that game by 14.
01:22Oh, no, it's just a point.
01:24Oh, all right.
01:26I just wanted to make sure I was reading results correctly.
01:27That's better than 20.
01:28Losing by 20.
01:29Reading results.
01:31Reading results.
01:33Signetti, man.
01:33I'm telling you, look, the credit for Indiana is they are like David Copperfield.
01:38Winding up in the playoff, awesome.
01:40Fantastic.
01:40There we go.
01:43Yeah.
01:43Again, you're an Indiana guy and you don't even know it.
01:46If they can lose to Purdue.
01:47If they lose to Purdue, man, this would be the single greatest show of all time.
01:51For sure.
01:52No doubt about it.
01:53I'm not going to argue that.
01:54You lose to a team that hasn't beaten an FBS team all year.
01:58Brother, he got a lot of questions to be answered.
02:00Who did they beat?
02:01Indiana State.
02:02Who did Purdue beat?
02:02Indiana State.
02:03Oh, my goodness.
02:03The Sycamores.
02:04Whoa, State.
02:06They're going to win the State Championship.
02:08Maybe so.
02:10I don't even know if I'll be back after the break.
02:14Crazy comments in the feed.
02:16A lot of people.
02:17A lot of people.
02:18A lot of people reacting to Donnie and I having a good old time on this Monday morning.
02:25Again, let's get to Monday Night Football to end out week number 12
02:30of this National Football League regular season.
02:33The Ravens have already won a football game based on the projected odds.
02:36They are a two and a half point road favorite tonight in Los Angeles.
02:41The Cowboys lost yesterday to the Commanders and that is certainly what happened.
02:46The Titans suffered yet another crushing defeat yesterday against the Texans.
02:50That certainly happened as well.
02:52The Harbold ODRS.
02:54What a time it's going to be tonight in Los Angeles.
02:57It's going to be a good time tonight.
02:58It's a good football game.
02:59Here's the thing I'm worried about with the Chargers.
03:01I like the Chargers, but if we're not going to have a full strength Chargers team,
03:05a couple of pass rushers being down and also Ladd McConkie,
03:08boy, that's really going to put the onus on Herbert to actually win this football game
03:12or maybe just a ground and pound from J.K. Dobbins.
03:14The fact that I like the Baltimore Ravens coming in this game,
03:16the one thing you can attack them is in the secondary.
03:18So if you're a little bit limited in your passing game,
03:20I think that's going to affect it.
03:22And also, let's keep in mind, the Baltimore Ravens really need this victory.
03:26They watched on Thursday night the loss for the Pittsburgh Steelers
03:29as a chance to seize that moment and sort of climb back into the race in the AFC North.
03:34I think that plays into it.
03:35Also, the total at 15 and a half, it feels right.
03:37Even though the Chargers MO is,
03:39we don't really want to get into a shootout with you.
03:41I think they might have to against the Baltimore Ravens
03:43because that offense here with Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry,
03:46I think they're going to put up points.
03:47It's up to the Chargers to try to chase them down, too.
03:50For me, as long as you're keeping it under three,
03:53for me, I think the Ravens are the better side
03:55because I think they're just coming in a better spot tonight.
03:57Now, if Ladd McConkie is fully 100% and he's raring to go tonight,
04:00that could be a difference maker.
04:01But I just look pound for pound, player for player in the spot they're in tonight.
04:05The Ravens probably energized off that loss from the Pittsburgh Steelers.
04:09I think it gives them the slight edge tonight.
04:117-3, the straight-up record for the Los Angeles Chargers,
04:15who have covered in all seven victories.
04:17And yet, in all seven games, DRS, they have been booked,
04:20or all seven wins, rather, they have been booked as the favored side.
04:24The Chargers have only been a dog twice this year,
04:27which might be a little bit surprising.
04:30And in those games, as an underdog, they have not covered the number in either.
04:34Both of those games under a total as well.
04:37The Chargers have gone over in two consecutive games,
04:41but only over three times in their 10 NFL games this season.
04:46As we know, Baltimore has been a dead over team.
04:5111 games this year for the flock, over in nine of 11.
04:56This is not the highest total of the season for Baltimore.
05:00They have played in multiple games, 50 and above.
05:04This is by far the highest total of the season for the Chargers.
05:09Last week on Sunday night, total 47 and a half against the Bengals.
05:14That game did go over.
05:16And that's been the interesting thing, DRS, with Los Angeles.
05:20Early in the season, Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman
05:24told you exactly what they were going to do.
05:26Establish the run, take the onus off of Justin Herbert,
05:30who had had to do everything for this LA franchise
05:33in his first four years in the National Football League.
05:36They were going to move that responsibility to the O-line
05:39that was now going to be developed and the running back.
05:42In the last few weeks, though, it's been Herbert slugging that football
05:46and the Chargers playing in much higher scoring affairs.
05:50So to your point, even if Baltimore does start to score,
05:54I actually think the Chargers team we have seen the last few weeks can keep pace.
05:59Yes, they can keep pace.
06:00They can.
06:00Because Johnson looks like he's going to be a boss year one.
06:03Hey, he's not playing good football.
06:05He looks like he's that deep threat, big play guy you can have.
06:07But you also need that balance of Vlad Mikhalky,
06:09who runs those intermediate rounds, has looked quite good his rookie season.
06:13There's a lot of components that I really like.
06:15The one thing you know about the Harbaughs,
06:16we want to get a fullback out there, put our hand in the dirt,
06:19and get out there and get after it.
06:21So you know coming into this game, you're not looking at the Chargers
06:23and like, oh, they can't compete this way.
06:25I think they want to be fast and physical with the Ravens.
06:28But the one thing we do know is,
06:29you don't really attack the Ravens on the ground,
06:31which is what Jim Harbaugh would love to do,
06:33and what he's done many times this year
06:34with a couple different running backs in the backfield.
06:36I think if you have to be aggressive early,
06:38which you need to do for the Chargers,
06:40to sort of get this game script of,
06:42okay, let's get the lead by throwing,
06:43and maybe we can run later in this game.
06:45But I just look on the opposite side.
06:46You have two legitimate, like one guy trying to win the Offensive Player of the Year,
06:50and that's going to be Derek Henry.
06:51I think he has a pretty good night.
06:52But also, maybe the true MVP comes out and shows in Lamar Jackson,
06:56because I look at his passing numbers,
06:57and think he can throw the two touchdowns
06:59and go over his passing prop number tonight.
07:01I think we get more of a passing game tonight
07:03from both teams than a running attack,
07:05which both teams probably would rather have the running attacks get after it.
07:09That is very interesting.
07:10The Flock have been booked as a favorite in every single game,
07:14all 10, since the season debut in Kansas City.
07:18They have, of course, won seven of those.
07:20They are five and five against the number.
07:23Plenty more from Monday Night Football
07:26when our third and final hour begins,
07:28after the break on the Early Line.
07:32Welcome to hour number three,
07:33live right here on this feisty Monday morning.
07:37You can hear it in my voice on the Early Line on Sports Grid.
07:40He is my former friend, Donny Rightside,
07:43and I am...
07:44Red leather, yellow leather.
07:46Let's get warmed up, baby.
07:48Let's get warmed up.
07:49We can get a little bit heated at one another.
07:52Let's make good TV.
07:53Still, it does.
07:54It's great TV, man.
07:55You let the feelings out.
07:56You blow through segments here.
07:57You yell at each other.
07:58You get it out, man.
07:59I feel like I'm right back like 15 years ago.
08:01My online style is right now bad.
08:03I've got the juices going today.
08:05I love it.
08:06I feel like I'm the big man battling it out with Rightside.
08:10A lively debate at this...
08:15All right.
08:16So, as we get you set for this third and final hour,
08:21we will talk with the pro football doc, Dr. David Chow,
08:24up next about the injury analysis that you need
08:27ending the Sunday slate in the rest of the homestretch of this season.
08:31Proper perspective on this Monday with Tom Vecchio in just a little bit as well.
08:36And, of course, we continue to break down Monday Night Football tonight in LA.
08:41The Chargers in the Ravens, John Harbaugh and Baltimore
08:45against his brother, Jim Harbaugh, and Los Angeles.
08:49DRS, what is the best bet for Monday Night Football?
08:53We had to hear from the people.
08:54We find out now for Monday Night in Fade to Public.
09:06At Sports Grid on Twitter, what is the best bet for Monday Night Football?
09:10The Ravens as a slight road favorite, laying two and a hook now.
09:14The Chargers as the home dog, over 50 and a half.
09:18A pretty steep total.
09:20Or under that number, sub 50.
09:22The first time the Chargers have played with an over-under at 50 or higher this year.
09:27Most of the public, DRS.
09:29The Ravens, laying two and a half on the road tonight
09:32to win their eighth game of this season.
09:36Yeah, 39 and a half percent exactly here on the updated numbers
09:39through a couple hundred votes.
09:40I wonder what that poll would actually be.
09:42If that was Ravens minus three, Chargers plus three,
09:45how many votes that would absolutely swing?
09:47Because you're basically picking the team to win the football game
09:50by at least a field goal.
09:51Not more than a field one.
09:52I think that's a big difference.
09:54The talent discrepancy, I do think, goes towards the Ravens.
09:57The better and more talented side.
09:58But that doesn't win football games, particularly on the road
10:00against a quality opponent in the Chargers.
10:03It's up to Herbert.
10:04So sometimes you take a look at like betting environments of what you have.
10:07How do you think the Ravens win this game?
10:08Is it Derrick Henry, 20 carries, 133 yards and two scores?
10:11Or is it actually Lamar Jackson's arm and him scrambling there?
10:15Same thing with the Chargers.
10:16Is this really a game where J.K. Dobbins rushes 20 times for over 100 yards
10:20and a touchdown?
10:20Or against that Ravens fast and physical front seven?
10:23Is it more of an air attack at this point?
10:25So even if you're saying, you know what?
10:26It looks pretty even cut down the line for me.
10:28Maybe dip into that prop market.
10:30But I'm going to keep it real.
10:31Like all week long, I looked at that line and said, you know what?
10:33This is a pretty good Raven spot here.
10:35Lamar Jackson, absolutely a terror on turf.
10:39I don't know who catches him tonight.
10:40I'm going to lean with the former two-time MVP tonight
10:43to pull this one out by at least a field goal in the Ravens.
10:46And DRS, you know what's really interesting about this football game?
10:50As you have said, you would expect it to be a grind it out on the ground type of contest.
10:57That's what Harbaugh and the Ravens want to do with both Lamar and, of course,
11:01the King and Derrick Henry.
11:03It is what Harbaugh and Greg Roman, the former OC, by the way, in Baltimore
11:08and the Chargers want to do as well.
11:11But is it really?
11:13Now the Ravens, DRS, are the second best rushing defense in the National Football League.
11:18The Chargers might know that the Ravens are the worst passing defense
11:23in the National Football League and maybe can get them through the air.
11:27The Ravens also are a team that have played in so many overs this season.
11:33So we could expect them to do the same.
11:37The Ravens so far this season, 11 games, 7 and 4 over in 9 of 11.
11:43I wonder, DRS, as we look at the total here, does 50 and a half feel just a little bit high?
11:51Like you're paying the premium for the over under tonight
11:54or do you think we see a ton of offense in Los Angeles?
11:58No, it's a good point you bring up too because that 50 and a half seems about right here.
12:02It's not like, hey, 53 and a half, it's too high,
12:04but they still want to put that number above 50
12:06because there are two thoughts that can happen in this game.
12:09Both of these teams want to impose their will.
12:12Both understand what the stakes are because if you take a look at this game, Ben,
12:15maybe if we played it in week two, a little bit more air out,
12:18not really understanding what the MO of each football team is going to be this season
12:21and playing things out, new plays get put into the equation.
12:24These guys have watched 10 games of film on each other
12:27and you're going to line up in this game where two brothers know each other
12:30like the back of their palm to be able to line up.
12:33Again, I do think it's up to the Chargers to start out early and be aggressive,
12:38but we know Harbaugh, he would love nothing more than a
12:41seven to eight play drive to open the game, eat up six minutes
12:45and maybe even come away with just the field goal to set the tone for this game.
12:48But I want to see the aggression out there.
12:50I'm not so happy with going over the total in this game because again,
12:53Alex just explained it where two really good football teams on a prime time environment.
12:57Let's see what happens, but we're not worried about any weather conditions.
13:00Both teams come at somewhat healthy outside of that Lab McConkie
13:03who might be a game time decision tonight.
13:04So for me, I probably would lean more of the under,
13:07but still take the Ravens as the favorite.
13:10Yeah, so I'm having a difficult time really looking at this spread.
13:13To your point, DRS, three points feels like it could be very critical,
13:17but we have mentioned the Chargers now as a favorite in eight of 10 games.
13:23They have won seven of those eight.
13:25They have covered in all seven victories.
13:28They were a slight home favorite last week against the Bengals on Sunday night at home.
13:34Second consecutive week and a prime time marquee matchup for the Bulls.
13:38Second consecutive night that SoFi Stadium is going to host a prime time game
13:43to end out a slate in the National Football League,
13:47but as an underdog twice this year for the Chargers.
13:50Week three against the Steelers following Sunday against the Chiefs.
13:54Now the Chargers were banged up in that game.
13:57No covers, no wins.
13:590-2 both straight up and against the spread.
14:02The Ravens have been favored in all 10 games since that season opener in KC.
14:07They have won seven and they are five and five against the number.
14:11Of course, a big story tonight is the brothers facing off.
14:15John Harbaugh and the Ravens, Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers, most notably DRS.
14:21These two brothers met, of course, way back in the Super Bowl.
14:26In fact, they met twice or twice in that two-year span for Jim Harbaugh.
14:33They met in his first year in San Francisco in 2011.
14:38That game in Baltimore, the Ravens got the best of the Niners, 16-6.
14:43And of course, in the Super Bowl the following year in 2012,
14:47John, the better of, I believe, Jim is his younger brother.
14:51I'm pretty sure about that.
14:52John got the better of his brother.
14:56John's the older, right?
14:58I think Jim's the younger.
14:59Jim's the older, right?
15:00He looks older to me.
15:01I don't know.
15:02Yeah, check on that one.
15:04They got married within like a year or two anyway.
15:08John is, wow, that's crazy.
15:09John is older, yeah.
15:10Holy moly.
15:11Yeah, that's wild.
15:13Another win in a debate for Ben Stevens this morning, if I do say so myself.
15:18DRS, let's talk about the quarterbacks right now.
15:20If we do expect this to be an aerial attack.
15:25Look at Justin Herbert's prop, 261 and a half.
15:29In the first few games this season, four the bolts, 237 yards or less.
15:36In the first four games this year for LA, less than 180 for Herbert.
15:41But a number that in three of the last four, he has skied over, excuse me, four of the last five.
15:48And here's what's been pretty crazy about Herbert this year, 13 touchdowns.
15:52All right, not that many.
15:53But 13 touchdowns DRS to only one interception.
15:58The onus has been off of his right arm and he is playing some highly efficient football.
16:04Yeah, let's say 261 and a half.
16:05Let's just, let's call it like 250 right now.
16:08We'll just use that as the demarcation line.
16:10If you think the Chargers can win this football game with him throwing for less than 250 yards,
16:14I don't think that happens.
16:15So conversely on the opposite side, he could throw for 250 plus and they can still lose this game.
16:20So sometimes you try to break it down to a simple element.
16:23How do you think this game plays out?
16:24I don't think that the Chargers run all over the Ravens front seven
16:29and he just mixes in 25 passes in this game.
16:32I really believe that he has to continue on that streak.
16:34And there's maybe no better thrower of the football than Herbert.
16:37Again, it just comes down to, does he have all his weapons on the outside?
16:40That's what I'm looking for.
16:41He's got to throw if they want to win.
16:43Well, I'm right here on this Monday on the early line on Sports Grid.
16:47I am Ben Stevens.
16:48Donny right side is over there on the right and the man in the middle,
16:53Tom Vecchio, here to provide that prop perspective for Monday night football
16:58in the Harbo, the Battle of the Brothers tonight in Los Angeles.
17:02Jim and his Chargers, John and his Ravens tonight inside SoFi Stadium.
17:08Vecchio, before we dive into the game,
17:10a thank you and a welcome as always for being here on this Monday.
17:15Of course.
17:15Thanks for having me.
17:16We are in for a great game tonight.
17:19Like you said, it's the Harbo Bowl.
17:21You're apparently the first person to ever report that because I didn't know that.
17:24It's no one talking about it coming into this week.
17:26But, you know, the access aside, like this is a massive,
17:30massive game in terms of the AFC standings for the wild card.
17:35The Ravens are kind of reeling right now.
17:37They need to right the ship.
17:38And I see this game leaning towards the under.
17:42Again, these teams need to figure things out.
17:44I have a very specific approach when I want to come to this game.
17:46And ultimately, I do think this is probably one of the tougher
17:49primetime games that we've had because the strength of both teams on offense,
17:53at least, is running the ball.
17:54And that's the strength of the opposing defenses.
17:56So we actually could be in for a bit more of a passing game time,
18:00which is not something you necessarily expect from these offenses.
18:03Yeah.
18:03So, Vecchio, let's start with those.
18:05Oh, go ahead.
18:06Sorry.
18:06Yeah, go ahead.
18:07No, I'm going to interrupt you.
18:08We're hot right there.
18:09I got a good laugh.
18:10I would never interrupt you.
18:12Never interrupt you.
18:12Now, if we were looking, Tom, there's eye in this game,
18:15because I completely agree with you the way it sets up on the defenses.
18:18So my eye goes to Justin Herbert, 263 and a half yards for me.
18:21I use the number with 250 with Ben saying,
18:24I don't think the Chargers can win this football game if he throws for less than 250.
18:28If we look at the quarterback perspective between these two guys here,
18:31who are you aiming for tonight to have a lot of use out of that arm?
18:36I really like Herbert tonight.
18:37And this goes along with the game script that I'm anticipating.
18:41And so I would specifically look to Herbert.
18:43I think his yards are fine.
18:44Totally fine.
18:45You can certainly go there.
18:46But I actually like him specifically over 21 and a half completions.
18:49Last week versus the Bengals was the first time this season,
18:53his completion percentage was under 50%.
18:55So we have to take that into account.
18:57Next up, the Ravens.
18:57They're only allowing 77 rushing yards per game.
19:00That's the second best in the league.
19:01So what are we looking at from the Chargers offense tonight?
19:04It's like, OK, let's kind of reel things in.
19:06We may not be able to move the ball on the ground.
19:08Let's get Herbert back going.
19:09Let's be an efficient offense tonight, right?
19:11Doesn't have to throw for 350 yards, whatever.
19:13But let's get the ball moving.
19:14Let's pick up some first downs.
19:15Let's get the completions.
19:16We still see the Ravens tend to leave when it comes to total blitzes this season.
19:20So we have Herbert looking to move the ball efficiently.
19:22We have to worry about Ladd-McConkie.
19:24He's listed as questionable.
19:25But getting the ball out quickly, picking up some easy first downs,
19:28I think will be a path for the Chargers to win
19:30if they're not able to move the ball on the ground.
19:32So again, buying into like, oh, this is actually an important game,
19:35regardless of the Harborough Bowl being a thing.
19:36Like these teams need to win for the standings.
19:39So let's have Herbert show the quarterback that he's really evolved into this season.
19:42He started off the year super slow.
19:44But this is the time for him to be a very effective quarterback at moving the ball.
19:49And oddly enough, Vecchio, despite going over this passing yards prop,
19:52in fact, 279 or more in four of the last five games for the Bolts,
19:57he's only actually had 21 completions or more just once in that four-game sample size.
20:04On the other side, Lamar Jackson, still the second-best price to win the NFL MVP award,
20:09the two-time NFL MVP winner.
20:13As we look at this game and we see a total of 50 and a half with that spread,
20:18now it's just two and a hook.
20:19We expect points.
20:21We expect a tight and competitive game.
20:23What will the flock need out of Lamar in that offense to keep pace in LA tonight?
20:29I think the easiest route to go would be the combined passing plus rushing for Lamar.
20:34They may not be able to move the ball as effectively as some may assume with Derek Henry.
20:38So we're going to see a little bit of pressure on Lamar.
20:40He should be able to move the ball.
20:41I would say somewhat decently in the air as we saw last week with the Bengals offense.
20:46He has the options on offense.
20:48They're fully healthy.
20:48They're ready to roll.
20:49But ultimately, I like his rushing plus passing.
20:52It's always the best way to go because he's going to have the design run place.
20:55He's going to have enough passing.
20:56And if they do fall behind, which I think is certainly possible,
20:59considering how the struggle of the past few weeks,
21:01the passing yards will be there for him.
21:03So unders on Derek Henry are very tough to take, but that may be a route to go.
21:07And Justice Hill in the passing game could actually be a solid option for the Ravens.
21:13We saw a lot of points yesterday in so far this game.
21:15Once again, we'll be played in so far.
21:16It's great.
21:17At the end of November, not have to worry about any weather conditions here
21:20and have a perfect playing field.
21:21We'll see how it plays out now.
21:23Some of the equalizers that could end up and say, hey, ground control is key.
21:27Derek Henry tonight, 84 and a half is his rushing prop
21:31on the FanDuel Sportsbook right now.
21:33On the opposite side, JK Doblin's at 47 and a half.
21:36Are there any running backs that you want to attack more than others here tonight, Tom?
21:40No, I would lean towards the under on Henry rushing attempts.
21:44I think we can get to his yard just because
21:47how often does he break off a big run for 30 or 40 yards?
21:49Like the yards, I think are always a little bit easier for Derek Henry.
21:51So I would certainly look there.
21:53I think the odds on the running backs and really just the touchdown odds
21:56overall are really interesting because Henry is sitting,
21:58the only player sitting at minus money when everyone else is sitting at plus money.
22:02And we're dealing with a game that has a 50 over under.
22:04So if you are expecting points tonight outside of Henry,
22:07we're getting some decent odds to great odds on a lot of these players.
22:10So this is actually a revenge game for not just JK Doblin's,
22:13but also Gus Edwards, the backup running back to the Chargers.
22:15Now, I don't want to be buying that much, but both of them should be playing a decent role.
22:19Again, this is a very tough matchup defensively
22:22in terms of the Ravens rush defense being awesome.
22:24But I expect a good balanced usage out of Doblin's and Edwards tonight
22:28and maybe looking to Henry under on attempts, not just yards.
22:33Derek Henry and six of the seven wins for the flock this year,
22:36at least 92 yards on the ground.
22:39But he has not broken through 70 yards running the football the last two weeks.
22:43Here might be my favorite bet for the night back.
22:45You talk about some value with at any time touchdown price
22:48in a game that is expected to flirt with 50 total points.
22:52JK Doblin's has scored a touchdown in six of the seven L.A. wins this year,
22:57eight touchdowns in those six games.
22:59If L.A. can keep this game close,
23:02I think Doblin's might hit Pater.
23:04But we are all, I think, expecting maybe some more passing yards tonight
23:08than you might anticipate with the Ravens facing the Chargers this season.
23:13So Vecchio, if that is the case, we've talked quarterbacks.
23:16Now let's talk their top targets and the receivers for tonight.
23:20Which players on either side get your attention?
23:24Yeah, I'm really liking Will Disley, the tight end for the Chargers.
23:27Again, Ladin McConkey is listed as questionable.
23:29McConkey comes in with a 22% target share, which is the highest on team.
23:32But again, listed as questionable.
23:33Disley's at third on the team at 17.3%.
23:36So he's really not that far behind.
23:38Even if we do see Ladin McConkey play.
23:39We've seen Disley go over this number in three of the last five games with 40 plus.
23:44Two of those games were at 80 plus.
23:45When you see the Ravens, they've left 736 receiving yards of tight ends.
23:48That's the third most in the league.
23:49So again, Disley with a modest to low A dot average depth of target
23:54kind of buys into like, oh, Herbert's going to get the ball quickly.
23:56He's going to be efficient tonight.
23:57They don't need to take massive shots downfield.
24:00They'll be there at times.
24:01But I think moving the ball, getting those first downs, staying away from,
24:04you know, third and long will be the plan tonight.
24:07And Disley will play a key part in that.
24:10Now, Tom, we talk a lot here on TV.
24:12They see the graphics with the people out there on the radio.
24:14Let them know once again, your top props for tonight in this Monday night football showdown.
24:19Besides Disley over 39 and a half to Herbert over 21 and a half completions,
24:23really liking going to Rashad Bateman over 37 and a half.
24:26He's been over this number in six out of 11 games.
24:29We could see a decent role for Mark Andrews, who has been up and down.
24:32Is he flowers?
24:33I've been kind of hit him hit or miss on this and this season,
24:35which is maybe just a personal thing where the games that he has 100 plus yards.
24:38I'm betting on the under the games that he has 11 yards.
24:40I'm betting on the over.
24:41So I just want to simply stay away from, say,
24:42flowers because he's burned me a few times in the past.
24:45But Bateman does play a good role.
24:47He really is going to be that.
24:48I'm going to say number two option in the passing game for them.
24:51Deontay Johnson isn't playing a role overall in their passing game thus far.
24:54Since he's been acquired, you know, maybe there's a little bit of Mark Andrews.
24:57Maybe there's a little bit of, I say, likely or Justice Hill.
24:59But Bateman really should be that solid number two option for for Lamar tonight.
25:05Yeah, we could see some yards through the air tonight in so far in the horrible
25:10as Vecchio was the first to let us know, which was John Harbaugh and the flock
25:14and Jim Harbaugh and the both.
25:16But to Vecchio's point, an important game for that AFC playoff picture
25:21and potentially the wild card chase right now,
25:24the Chargers would be that top wild card team at seven and three.
25:28The Ravens back by just a half game in that loss column at seven and four.
25:34The Chargers a dog just twice this year.
25:37Oh, and two against the spread.
25:38The Ravens favorite in 10 consecutive games since the opening season
25:42defeat against the Kansas City Chiefs.
25:45Tom Vecchio, as always, we appreciate the time.
25:48Thank you for the prop perspective on this Monday morning.
25:51Of course.
25:51Thanks for having me.
25:52I will see you guys tonight for the pregame show.
25:55Pregame show.
25:56Postgame show.
25:58Halftime show.
25:59This guy never stops.
26:01We continue the Monday night breakdown.
26:03That's the horrible on this Monday night in Los Angeles between Jim
26:08and his Chargers, John, the older brother and his Ravens Baltimore,
26:14a favorite tonight on the road in Los Angeles,
26:17like two and a half points.
26:18Now the updated number on that spread.
26:21Total still remains north of 50 at 50.
26:24And DRS, let's just start with the numbers, because again,
26:27whether it's three or two and a half in favor of the flock,
26:31the odds makers are expecting one of the best games of this week.
26:35One of the best games of this month of this season in the NFL.
26:39If it is going to be decided by three points or less,
26:43and we might see 50 combined points on the scoreboard.
26:46That's an instant classic of a Monday night game.
26:49And then you add in the narrative of this brother battle.
26:52Just how good do you expect Monday night to be inside SoFi Stadium?
26:56I think it's gonna be a great game.
26:57I do.
26:57And the one thing that we hate to watch as handicappers is,
27:00oh, when is this weather going to hit?
27:02Case in point, you watch that game against Cleveland and Pittsburgh.
27:05It looked great in the first half.
27:06It was a disaster in the second half.
27:08And from my angle in that game,
27:10hey, why not take the over in the first half?
27:12Because the weather's coming in.
27:13It's the exact opposite.
27:13Nobody scored in the first half.
27:15Everybody scored.
27:15It was terrible weather.
27:16So setting this game up,
27:17it's interesting to see that 50 and a half number,
27:20which we expect both of these quarterbacks
27:21to have decent prop numbers here to sort of get after it.
27:24But if we're looking at any touchdown market tonight, Ben,
27:27Derrick Henry's a minus 210.
27:29He's always going to be that high.
27:30The expectations are he scores.
27:32J.K. Dobbins is a minus 105.
27:34Remove the two running backs from the equation.
27:36We're expecting some fireworks from the quarterbacks.
27:39Everybody.
27:40Great numbers, Ben.
27:41Vlad Mikhalky, plus 145.
27:42Zay Flowers, plus 180.
27:44Quinn Johnston, plus 210.
27:46Take a look at Mark Andrews, plus 240.
27:48Disley, plus 310.
27:49This might be one of the markets you really want to attack
27:51because if the anticipation is for what,
27:54around, let's just say, six to seven touchdowns
27:56with that total,
27:57somebody's got to get in other than the running backs here.
27:59You're getting a darn good price for those guys.
28:02Yeah, for sure, DRS.
28:03I think it's a really good point that Beccio made
28:05that you are also alluding to there.
28:0850 and a half is that total in only now two guys
28:12as J.K. Dobbins' price has moved ever so slightly
28:16into even a slight minus money component,
28:19even at plus 140 or less.
28:22It is those two running backs.
28:23And that's what's so interesting about the breakdown
28:26and the preview of this game.
28:27If I were to tell you Baltimore and LA,
28:30you think, all right,
28:31they are going to establish that run.
28:33Derek Henry, 150 and two scores
28:36against this Chargers defense.
28:38That also is top 10 in defending the run
28:41and the best scoring defense
28:42entering the Monday night finale of week number 12,
28:45only allowing just a tick over two touchdowns per game.
28:49The Ravens are an elite defense,
28:51slowing down the run, second best in the NFL.
28:54Although Dr. Chow did let us know
28:56that front seven, perhaps a little bit more banked up
28:58for Baltimore than it has been
29:00at any other point this season.
29:03The Ravens are not good at slowing down scoring
29:06on the other side.
29:08Baltimore, one of the worst scoring defenses
29:10in the National Football League, bottom 10.
29:12And as you look at that total DRS,
29:14it is why it is so high.
29:16The Ravens have played to the over
29:18in nine of 11 games this season.
29:21And it feels like we have the ability
29:23to get some big plays.
29:24A market that I don't explore all that much, Ben,
29:26is the longest pass catchers of the game,
29:28or let's just say,
29:28longest completion of the game by either team.
29:30If we're looking at Justin Herbert,
29:31one of the best arms in football,
29:33you know that play action is going to be there
29:35against that vulnerable secondary of the Baltimore Ravens.
29:38On the opposite side,
29:39Lamar Jackson has had some fantastic football games.
29:41Not only throwing for multiple yardage,
29:43throwing for deep shots,
29:44and more importantly, a lot of touchdowns.
29:46So maybe the juice comes from me,
29:48where you think it's going to be a ground and pound game,
29:50which both of these teams want to,
29:51but sort of playing opposite that by saying,
29:53you know what?
29:54I got two really good quarterbacks
29:55with chances to light up some secondaries here.
29:57And maybe that's the angle to play in this game.
30:00And once again, late November,
30:01not worrying about any weather conditions here.
30:03So it's like, oh no, Ben, he had them deep,
30:0540 yards down the field.
30:06The wind blew it out of bounds
30:07or toward the center of the field.
30:08Not the case.
30:09These two guys can really launch it.
30:11DRS, like I did a couple of weeks ago,
30:14when it was the Ravens and the Bengals
30:16on that short week Thursday night game,
30:18I parlayed the two quarterbacks,
30:19Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson
30:21to each throw two or more passing touchdowns.
30:24They did.
30:25I kind of look at this spot again
30:27with the expected offensive output and think the same.
30:30Justin Herbert over his passing yards prop
30:32now at 263 and a half
30:34in four of the previous five games for LA.
30:37They have been airing it out so much more,
30:40but still not expecting all of that much
30:43out of Justin Herbert.
30:44Lamar Jackson, right?
30:45Seven wins this year for Baltimore
30:47in the last five and five of the last seven,
30:49but all of the previous five.
30:52Lamar Jackson has thrown for at least 280 yards
30:56and has three plus passing touchdowns,
30:58DRS in four of those five wins.
31:01And the Ravens are still a slight favorite
31:03on the road tonight.
31:05You really kind of talked me into it.
31:07The only debate that I will give you credit
31:08for on this Monday,
31:10I think it's an aerial attack tonight in Los Angeles.
31:13It could be.
31:13And also, again, starting with the quarterbacks here,
31:16so many times you only think of Lamar Jackson
31:18as, oh, he's the great runner.
31:19Take a look at the last three or four games here
31:21for Justin Herbert.
31:22Four carries for 49 yards.
31:23Then he had the one three carries for two yards.
31:25But after that, nine for 32 and a touchdown,
31:28five for 65.
31:29So banged up to start the year, right, Ben,
31:31with that ankle injury.
31:32Oh no, is that going to affect him?
31:34He looks really good running the football.
31:36So I'm going to have to intact what I used to,
31:38you know, play in the previous times.
31:40Prime time games,
31:40take both of the quarterbacks over the rushing props
31:43and parlay it together.
31:44This might have a legitimate chance.
31:46Because again, we look at Lamar Jackson,
31:47but don't keep out Herbert.
31:49Guy's running here, man, he is.
31:50For sure.
31:52I thought Tom Vecchio made a great point
31:53about Rashad Bateman again,
31:54in those five recent wins for Baltimore,
31:57where Lamar is thrown for at least 280.
31:59And for the five, Bateman, 54 yards or more.
32:02His prop 39.
32:04And J.K. Dobbins has scored in six of seven games
32:08for the Chargers.
32:08That price now minus 105.
32:11You don't have to pay nearly as much of a burden
32:14as you do for the juice for the king
32:16to find Payton at minus 210.
32:19I will say though, DRS,
32:20Derrick Henry, at least 92 yards in six of seven wins
32:24for Baltimore this season.
32:26And you see that prop,
32:27but maybe it's not a Derrick Henry night
32:30and Baltimore still comes out
32:32with a victory in Los Angeles.
32:34Exactly.
32:35You're not getting any bargains here.
32:36And that's sometimes what like the shop for like,
32:38hey, that's a legitimate number they can get.
32:39You're basically saying Derrick Henry
32:40is going to get the century mark tonight,
32:42which again, isn't a bad bet.
32:43Cause he typically gets at least around there
32:45and a touchdown,
32:46but you see the anytime touchdown market minus 210.
32:49You see the carries got to get to 18.
32:50If that game script is there,
32:52he'll have a lot of chances to run.
32:54And also the Baltimore Ravens on deck
32:56on a Monday night game.
32:57The Eagles already flying back to the East coast.
32:59The Eagles and the Ravens next Sunday
33:01will be fantastic.
33:02Let's see if they,
33:03could they save Henry a little bit for next week?
33:05Nah, probably not.
33:06They're getting after it tonight.
33:07No doubt.
33:08Yeah.
33:08It's going to be a great game.
33:10DRS, enjoy the money line.
33:12Have a very happy Thanksgiving.
33:14I guess I'll talk to you next week, man.
33:16It's been a long, long time.
33:18And even when we get mad at each other,
33:21lose my number.
33:23Lose my number.