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00:00The G20, which, by the way, included a sidebar meeting between France's president and India's
00:05prime minister.
00:06India, which at the time of spiraling superpower tensions is both a member of the Quad, a security
00:12grouping that includes Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S., but also the BRICS, powered
00:17by Russia and China.
00:19Our guest is completing a four-year stint as Delhi's man in Paris, outgoing Indian ambassador
00:25to France, Jawed Ashraf.
00:27Thank you for speaking with us here.
00:28Thank you for having me.
00:29Good evening.
00:31These are changing times.
00:34You're departing in a moment of transition in Washington, and it feels like a moment
00:39of uncertainty globally.
00:42There was a G20 summit last year in India.
00:44A lot has changed since when we just saw wrap up in Rio.
00:48Well, thank you very much.
00:50It is, I think, not just because of the election in the United States that it's a period of
00:55change.
00:56We are witnessing sweeping changes in politics, in geopolitics, economics, technology, shifting
01:03equations between countries, weakening of international order for quite a while.
01:08Also, I think a changing of economic philosophy in the world, across the world.
01:13Those who are the architects, I think, of the international order as we know it are
01:17no longer interested in it.
01:18In some cases, they are actually quite opposed to it, as we see now.
01:23Now, I think what we saw in G20, though, I'd say is something very positive.
01:28I think you must recognize in this time of fractious time, there is a great deal of unity,
01:33at least cohesion, and getting a consensus.
01:36And I think the Delhi G20 summit was instrumental in saving G20 from collapsing because we did
01:42achieve a consensus when no one expected it.
01:45Consensus on what?
01:47Consensus on actually getting a statement that reflected diverse points of view.
01:53And this is important because G20 is perhaps today the only platform globally where leaders
01:58of major countries from diverse geographies, from different circumstances are actually
02:02coming together to debate on a whole set of issues and then set directions for the future.
02:08And you would recall that last year there was a lot of concern whether because of Ukraine
02:11there would even be a consensus and that whether politics will derail the original objective
02:16of G20, which is to shape the direction of the world towards a more prosperous, inclusive
02:21future.
02:22And I think G20 achieved that last year in saving the future of G20 and also making it
02:27more inclusive.
02:28And we had Africa Union join G20, which was quite an anomaly not to have them.
02:34Since then, we've seen Indonesia, India, Brazil, and then next South Africa will leave G20,
02:41which is a great signal that countries are emerging, countries emerging democracies
02:47But a lot is changing.
02:48Concomitant to that G20 is the COP29 climate talks taking place in Azerbaijan.
02:55It's tough going, I'm told, with 48 hours to go.
02:58And the question is, the climate sort of overall goals that they agreed upon in the communique
03:04in Rio, are those ready to be torn up after January the 20th?
03:11Well I think we'll have to wait and see where we actually go on this because, you know,
03:14we'll let the new administration come into office and then we'll see how they approach
03:19this issue.
03:20But then the United States is perhaps not the only arbiter of where we go on the climate
03:27goals.
03:28There are a larger set of issues we need to be honest about in addressing this, including
03:32unfulfilled promises, shifting goalposts, the absence of real collective global effort
03:39in recognition in accordance with the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities.
03:45I think if the world is able to come together without the United States in addressing the
03:51issue in a sincere, fair, equitable, just manner, we will be able to achieve our goals.
03:57Right now here in France, there's anxiety ahead of the return of Donald Trump.
04:03Are you sensing that anxiety?
04:05Is that something you're putting in your diplomatic cables back to Delhi?
04:11And is it justified, that anxiety?
04:13Well I can't speak for whether it's justified or not as far as France or Europe is concerned.
04:20I do of course have conversations here, some of which, obviously what I write back is not
04:26something I'd discuss on France 24.
04:28But look, I think...
04:31When you write home and tell them what the French view is on all of this, what are you
04:35telling them about this?
04:38The feeling here about the future, when they look at the future of NATO, when they look
04:42at things like what you were discussing earlier, perhaps the end of free trade as we've known
04:46it up to now.
04:47Well, I'd say this, that you know, President Donald Trump or President-elect Donald Trump
04:52has made it quite clear that it's not going to be business as usual as far as the United
04:56States is concerned and the U.S. engagement with the rest of the world is concerned, U.S.
05:00engagement with global institutions, global compacts and international order as we understand
05:06it.
05:07That's certainly going to change.
05:08It is already changing but that may perhaps be a disruptive moment, something that accelerates
05:13that change.
05:14So we'll have to wait and see how all of us, the rest of the world respond to it, how we
05:19calibrate it, how they are going to deal with it.
05:22So it's not a one-off situation or a linear way of looking at it.
05:27As far as India is concerned, of course, we've had a very strong relationship with
05:32the United States during President Trump's first presidency, as we've had with other
05:37presidents from President Clinton, President Bush, President Obama, President Biden.
05:42And what we've seen so far suggests that there will be continuity in that relationship.
05:47There will, of course, be challenges in a complex, large relationship as we have with
05:51the United States.
05:52But I think we too...
05:53Because you remember in 2019, you had in Dallas, I think it was, this Howdy Modi rally
06:00where Narendra Modi and Donald Trump were there together.
06:03Yes.
06:04Will that be possible next time around if Donald Trump doubles down on tariffs for imports?
06:11I think these are all going to be subject of bilateral negotiations.
06:15I think first of all, we have to recognize what is the fundamental premise of the relationship.
06:20It is a great deal of comfort, strategic convergence, an excellent relationship between
06:26Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President-elect Trump.
06:31And so far, we also understand how we can deal with each other.
06:34So there are larger, broader, global, geopolitical, economic issues to deal with.
06:39Within that, as I said, there will be issues relating bilateral issues.
06:44But it's also going to be important for all of us, not just for Europe or for anyone else,
06:48but also for us to see how he deals with other countries, how the new U.S. administration
06:54deals with global issues, global challenges, and global institutions.
06:59And that would obviously include trade, climate change, finance.
07:02It would also include how you deal with all these institutions that we are familiar with,
07:08which have been at the center of global governance, global security, trade and finance, climate
07:13change, et cetera.
07:14So there's a need for those common rules.
07:16And here's the question, then.
07:18At the same time, there's a sort of, I don't know if it is a Trump effect, but certainly
07:23concomitant to what's going on, the change in U.S. politics.
07:26On your watch here in France, you've seen the rise of the French far right.
07:31You've seen how politics, there's much more anti-immigration talk than before.
07:38What's changed here in France in the four years that you've been here?
07:41Well, that's a very interesting question.
07:43Of course, I'm not going to get into classification of political parties into different vocabularies.
07:51But I would say that, yes, I've seen some of the same anxieties being expressed over
07:56here.
07:57Look, we are at a moment in the evolution of our societies where, due to a vast area
08:06of changes that you see, economic, political, social, technological, people are seeing
08:14a great deal of uncertainty, dislocation about the future, and uncertainty, maybe perhaps
08:20even pessimism.
08:22And because of all these changes are affecting people in diverse ways, there's, of course,
08:28accelerated by a war in Europe.
08:30We have seen people search for answers.
08:33There are questions, somehow the present system people feel, the political systems,
08:38the political institutions, political parties are not able to address their concerns, not
08:44able to answer their questions.
08:47And therefore, they're looking for alternative politics, alternative ways of dealing with
08:54their problems.
08:55And it is something which is happening across the world.
08:59And you have to recognize that there are some common links in this.
09:03The common links is the rise of social media.
09:04The common links is the great dislocations that the globalization has produced in some
09:11quarters, benefits in the others.
09:14People who have lost out don't understand what their future holds for them.
09:19So we are witnessing, perhaps, when you're walking through a forest, you don't really
09:24see the trees.
09:25Well, let me ask you this final question, then.
09:27You arrive in Paris.
09:29It's COVID lockdown.
09:32Is that a distant memory, or is that related to everything you've just said, and it's still
09:37very much present in your mind as you get ready to leave?
09:39You know, human beings have a way of putting painful experiences behind them.
09:44And somehow in these four years, it is easy to forget about it when you go around on the
09:48streets and when you see the magnificent Olympics that Paris hosted.
09:53And I would say that at the two bookends of my stay over here.
09:57But I think the consequences of COVID is still present on a daily basis in everyone's life.
10:04The changes it brought about, the disruptions it created, the losses that it generated at
10:11psychological, emotional, and even in material terms, continues to have an impact on lives
10:18of the people, but also, I would say, therefore, on politics, on economic choices, on the way
10:24people look, as the way they are organized socially and politically.
10:29And this has been exacerbated, of course, here in Europe by the war.
10:32But as I said, there are deeper underlying structural shifts that are taking place, geopolitical,
10:38economic, technological, which is in a sense in dissonance with the way we are organized
10:45today to our political thoughts, our economic philosophy, our economic organizations.
10:51And it is all coming to a clash where people are looking, therefore, for different kinds
10:56of answers.
10:57And this is exactly why you see politics in Europe, in the United States, in many other
11:02parts of the world are getting disrupted in different ways.
11:06We are leaving behind what was familiar to us.
11:09We don't know what we are heading into.
11:11And therefore, the unfamiliar future, the uncertain transition is creating all kinds
11:16of social anxieties.
11:17Jawed Ashraf, we wish you best of luck.
11:20Thank you very much.
11:21Thanks so much for being with us here on France 24.
11:22It was a pleasure.
11:23And I'd say this, that it was a bit of really educational and enriching experience to have
11:27lived in France and Europe at this very pivotal moment of time, besides what we've been able
11:33to achieve in our bilateral relations between India and France.
11:36Thank you very much.
11:37Come back soon.
11:38Many thanks.
11:39Stay with us.
11:40There's much more to come here on France 24.
11:41More news plus a day's business and sports.
11:47See you soon.
11:48Bye.
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