Sa katatapos lang na 2024 US Presidential Elections, muling nanalo si Donald Trump. Ano kaya ang magiging epekto nito sa relasyon ng US at ng Pilipinas? Iyan at ang iba pang implikasyon sa political affairs, defense at security, at sa kalagayan ng immigrants sa US ngayong balik-White House si Trump, sasagutin ng political analyst na si Prof. Edmund Tayao sa #TheMangahasInterviews.
#GMAIntegratedNews #KapusoStream
Breaking news and stories from the Philippines and abroad:
GMA Integrated News Portal: http://www.gmanews.tv
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/gmanews
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@gmanews
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/gmanews
Instagram: http://www.instagram.com/gmanews
GMA Network Kapuso programs on GMA Pinoy TV: https://gmapinoytv.com/subscribe
#GMAIntegratedNews #KapusoStream
Breaking news and stories from the Philippines and abroad:
GMA Integrated News Portal: http://www.gmanews.tv
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/gmanews
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@gmanews
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/gmanews
Instagram: http://www.instagram.com/gmanews
GMA Network Kapuso programs on GMA Pinoy TV: https://gmapinoytv.com/subscribe
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Donald Trump won again as the President of the United States.
00:09What is the implication in the Philippines, in politics, defense and security, and the situation of Filipinos in the United States?
00:19Let's talk about that with Professor Edmund Tayau.
00:22He is a professional lecturer at San Beda Graduate School of Law, President and CEO of Political Economic Elemental Researchers and Strategies.
00:33Good day, Professor Ed.
00:35Good day.
00:37Alright. I think you've also been waiting for the elections in the United States.
00:43What is the signal for the Philippines?
00:46President BBM said it's okay politically.
00:51You know, it's foolish to ask.
00:53Our foreign policy, we should start thinking about how we won't be too dependent on a powerful country.
01:09That's our narrative.
01:11If we focus on our relationship with the United States, it won't change regardless if the President is a Democrat or a Republican.
01:20For the most part, and this is not followed by the truth, if they say they're a Democrat, the tendency of America is more imperialistic.
01:37They are more inquisitive and more active. Let's just say they are more active in international affairs.
01:46For the Republicans, since they are conservative, their tendency is to withdraw back to themselves. That's their main reference.
02:01Meanwhile, if we focus on Donald Trump, we cannot say that he won't be inquisitive because during his first term as President,
02:11he said harsh words against China.
02:16The only difference we can see here is the way the United States cooperates with the Philippines.
02:30Actually, regardless of who the President is, to be honest, a Democratic President is only good or has more words,
02:40saying that you're allies and we're here for you if this happens.
02:46But no matter where we look, whether it's in the treaty or in our agreement with them or in their track record,
02:57in their direction in the history of our relationship, what comes out here, if America is not directly affected,
03:10it will not enter the hearts of other countries. That's what can change in Donald Trump's new term as President.
03:24But the relationship between the United States and the Philippines, I don't think it will change.
03:30Even if we are asked how to address this for purposes of informing everyone, I was somewhat able to contribute to the reconfiguration of our maritime affairs.
03:56The passing of new laws and the organization of inter-agency mechanisms, I was able to contribute to this.
04:07To be honest, when I was just starting, I said that we should be independent and if we are going to leave the Philippines,
04:16we should strengthen ASEAN. In fact, that's the direction. When Indonesia became the chair and Malaysia will become the chair next year,
04:28I think this direction will be followed.
04:33All right. Prof. Ed, the problem is you had an opinion piece last year. You said we cannot afford to be an enemy of China.
04:40But also, the U.S. cannot afford to be an enemy of China, although the tariffs that Trump is imposing on all China goods.
04:51But Trump was called by the press dispatches as a transactional president.
04:57It means that he's from China, economic affairs, trade relations, but he's friends with Putin and Netanyahu.
05:10It means that he's like a couple of autocrats in the field of transactional league of Trump.
05:18What do you think about that? You cannot afford to be an enemy of China. The U.S. cannot afford to be an enemy of China.
05:24Where will we look for help now?
05:26You know, to be honest, I cannot think of a president who is not transactional. At the end of the day, of course, you have to deal with the issues accordingly.
05:36What is in front of you and what are the implications of this. What will be the effect of this.
05:45That will be the approach of any president in the United States or here in the Philippines.
05:51To be honest, I don't expect Trump to win because I was really looking at how the quote unquote establishment is going to act on his election bid.
06:03When President Trump won for the first time, a lot of things came out, and this is not a coincidence.
06:10It has been proven that there is a conspiracy going on outside the United States, especially Russia.
06:18There is a trend there, not only in Ukraine, but even the Brexit vote has been proven by experts that there is a conspiracy made by Russia.
06:32What I expect is that before the last election, the establishment will look at this and make sure that there's no conspiracy.
06:48Maybe there's no conspiracy and President Trump won.
06:54Transactional in the sense that, of course, as much as possible, any president will show that where there is more potential,
07:05that's where the United States will enter. There's nothing new in that.
07:10Maybe if there's a slight adjustment made by China in its approach to the United States,
07:19maybe this relationship will get better.
07:25What President Trump is changing, if we base his first term as president,
07:32he is reducing the spending of the United States outside of this territory.
07:40That's why he's saying that he will pay more attention to the United States, especially to the workers,
07:49the Americans. He won't allow more employment, so to speak, employment opportunities.
07:59If there will be a negotiation and President Trump will see that he has potential, I think these statements will change.
08:12But here in the Philippines, maybe our problem is that the reading of our senior government officials is okay.
08:22President BBM said it's okay. Politically, we'll remain friends as forever. Defense Secretary Guibo said it's okay and there's no problem.
08:31In trade relations and economic relations, Secretary Recto said it's okay.
08:37But to be honest, it's okay if this will happen because Trump said that the countries that want protection of the United States,
08:45like Japan and South Korea, should pay to the U.S. instead of asking for help in loans and grants.
08:56President Trump's statement, in my understanding, is directed towards countries that in fact can afford.
09:09If I'm not mistaken, it's not just Japan and South Korea, but also Australia.
09:18In fact, if you look at the diplomatic initiatives here in the West Philippine Sea, South Korea and even India
09:30entered into talks with the interested parties here, not just in the Philippines, but even in Malaysia, Vietnam and other countries that are interested here.
09:46But in the Philippines, like what I mentioned earlier, its relationship with the United States is not changing.
09:55It's still the same. What's changing here is the way. For example, like the involvement of USAID,
10:05we noticed that supposedly the assistance or assistance of the United States to us was reduced during the first presidency of Trump.
10:18But this was given in exchange. This is the assistance in the direction of the Philippines to other countries.
10:30At the end of the day, the Philippines cannot be neglected. This is what I always say.
10:42Ever since, if we go back in history, the Chinese country did not accept us when they became a powerful country in the whole region.
10:55Of course, historically we've been paying respects to them, but not in the form of tributes or what.
11:03More in terms of just recognizing the presence of a big country like China, unlike other neighboring countries.
11:13Even so, because of the position of the Philippines, the security, you will not just look at the number of gunmen.
11:25You will look at the place and the interests that are involved here.
11:33If you ask me, in my opinion, the Chinese country is very interested in that place, not because they have a lot of oil.
11:48The Chinese don't need that oil. In their economy, they don't need it.
11:54But the Pacific, if you look at it, if you go out to the eastern side, if I'm not mistaken, you will see until Marshall Islands, Hawaii,
12:07it is already American-controlled. Historically, the Chinese country is vulnerable there. That's why it needs a buffer.
12:15That's the reason why it's so big. The United States cannot neglect it because it's a major sea lane.
12:23All trades pass through there. That's the reason why that place is so important.
12:32Until the middle of South Korea and Japan, many countries are looking at it because the significance of the countries in this place is different.
12:48All right. It means access point or corridor. The issues are getting personal.
12:56Trump said, and because it came out of the bottom, immigration is a very important issue.
13:03Now, Senate President Chief Escudero is worried that there might be trouble.
13:10We have 4.1 to 4.6 million Filipinos in the United States. But if there's no clear paper or it's not legal, the status might reach 350,000.
13:24Trump said there will be mass deportation. What is your view on that? Will we be in trouble because our countrymen might be deported without proper papers?
13:35Again, our reference here is when Trump first became president. I don't remember anything that happened.
13:46It's been four years since he became president. I don't remember anything that happened.
13:55It was put to a standstill, the approval of immigrant status of different races, not just Filipinos.
14:13What Trump needs is at the border of Mexico because their land area is their boundary. It's easy to cross.
14:32Not to mention of course that the major tracks linking the rest of Latin America to the U.S.
14:42That's where it's happening. That's why during the time of Trump's first victory, truck drivers were the first to react because they are being controlled.
14:55If you control the flow there, even the trade of goods and services will be affected. That's why it's not that simple.
15:04For me, let me repeat. We think that we are an extension of America. We don't see that we should have a more independent stance.
15:19Maybe we can secure our fellow Filipinos there, not in terms of reacting negatively to these statements, but making sure that their stay there is not only legal, but also protected.
15:34That's what we can do there.
15:38Okay. But this issue became more dramatic for the Americans because the waves and waves of migrants who don't have papers and are being placed in hotels,
15:49which is better than the homeless Americans themselves. Trump is even saying that they are eating cats and dogs that are being stolen.
15:59It's not just from Latino communities, African communities and so far, he's not counting the Asian-Americans.
16:11But it seems that there is more concern that there are too many illegal migrants who entered the United States under Biden.
16:20There are many. In fact, that's one of the reasons, analysts said, why Biden was defeated.
16:28But like what happened when President Trump became president, I don't know if the right term was reduced or he stopped the special status of South Korea.
16:52It's not a memoir. There's a book that was written about Trump that Trump is repeating. He's heating up the relationship between South Korea and America.
17:07But that's why they had to prepare a paper that President Trump has to sign to reconfigure the relations with South Korea.
17:29But maybe it was delayed by the people who were supposed to prepare this paper. First of all, they don't want to change President Trump's relationship with South Korea.
17:43Second, there's a complication. This is where we need to understand that it's not that easy.
17:51Even for a powerful president like Trump, he can't just say, get out of here. First of all, why are there more migrants?
18:05Because it's chaotic in different areas. Because America withdrew, unlike the other day, when there's chaos, America has boots on the ground.
18:18Their policemen are not like that anymore. They only provide air cover and support. Like in Ukraine, for example, it's a big thing for them if it's true.
18:28But they never really got themselves involved. Ever since Afghanistan and Vietnam, their policemen are different. They don't go there anymore,
18:38especially after what happened in Iraq. It's like they were exposed there.
18:43But what we need to understand is not only President Trump, but also those who are surrounding him, who will surely help him in making policies and programs,
18:55that's why there are more migrants because this chaos will not be policed. That's why it's not that easy for us to say, you're not allowed to come or leave tomorrow.
19:08It's not that easy. There are many effects. Not to mention, of course, employment of these migrants to blue-collar jobs that normally are not of interest to Americans.
19:28All right. Now, Asia is becoming more of a theater of conflict. Ukraine has a problem with Russia. Of course, the Gaza Strip is also close to us.
19:42The North Korea-South Korea tension. We're also in the West Philippine Sea and other climate countries versus China.
19:50So what is your outlook for Asia under a Trump 2.0 presidency?
19:56Many are saying that there will be a war close to us. I don't believe that. The places you mentioned, Gaza, North Korea-South Korea, and Ukraine,
20:09we cannot deny that. But China, for example, will invade Taiwan. If China wants that, they have done that for a long time, especially when Hong Kong returned to them.
20:22But what most people don't know and maybe some of our experts don't remember, before China and America became close,
20:32before the diplomatic relations of mainland China and America were established, the existing and strong relations were between Taiwan and America.
20:44In fact, this was only changed during Nixon's time because he was very angry with State Secretary at that time. I forgot his name.
20:59His ancestry is Jewish and he was very angry with the Japanese and the Germans because of what happened to the Jews.
21:10Kissinger.
21:12Kissinger, yes. It was Henry Kissinger who served as the architect. In fact, he was the one who urged President Nixon to reconfigure that.
21:24In fact, without even informing, this was a covert operation of Japan.
21:31Japan was surprised that suddenly their friend is mainland China. So having said that, and drawing from the long history of very strong and cooperative relationship with Taiwan,
21:46the moment that China entered Taiwan, the US would be able to invade. There is no difference in the West Philippine Sea.
21:57Just like the reasons we mentioned earlier. Now, what can happen there, and that's the reason why the strategy of China became famous,
22:12the so-called gray zone tactics, because they know their limitation. They cannot go beyond what they're doing now.
22:22Maybe it will escalate. They will be more aggressive, they will be water-hosed. They will be more aggressive.
22:30But to the point that there will be a shooting war, to my mind, that's very far. I'm not of course saying, Malu, that we are not supposed to do anything to prepare.
22:43We should prepare by all means. But what I'm saying is, it is not comparable to the same theaters of war as you've identified earlier.
22:54All right. Now, the problem of some is like Trump's appointments, the ones that have been announced.
23:01People say that it's up to Elon Musk, Robert Kennedy Jr. in health, and his lawyer who is now the Deputy Attorney General.
23:14What is your view on Trump's appointments? What kind of people are involved there?
23:20Aside from being loyal to Trump, what is their political ideology in their position?
23:27I think it's actually a good mix, Malu. Just like Robert Kennedy, he's not a Republican, as far as I can remember.
23:34He's anti-boxer.
23:35Yes. To put it simply, I'm inclined to think of course, whether we like it or not, whether in the United States or here in our country,
23:46a president will appoint a person he knows because it's not just the merit you're looking at, you're also looking at the confidence level.
23:57But we should understand that the difference between the United States and the Philippines is that they have a strong career service.
24:06Here in our country, even the director is appointed by the president.
24:10To put it simply, the policy direction is not just dependent on one secretary. That is fully supported by professional bureaucracy.
24:24I'm not saying we don't have a professional bureaucracy, except that our professional bureaucracy is really very limited to the lower,
24:32lower middle manager level.
24:35To put it simply, if the president will replace someone, major changes will happen.
24:42In the United States, it's not like that. I'm really not inclined to think.
24:46At the end of the day, whether it's going to be significant or not.
24:53First, we should really prepare. When we say prepare, we should identify alternatives because it's not right that ever since,
25:04we are too dependent on them and there are many options that can be done.
25:11We really have to show them that it's in their interest to stay close to us in the Philippines.
25:24The situation now is, do we need the U.S. more than the U.S. needs us?
25:30In international politics, it's quid pro quo.
25:38So it's not a matter of whether they need us more or we need them more.
25:43Of course, they need us, but considering our capacity as a state, we also need them.
25:54That's why the crucible here is the strong ASEAN.
26:03ASEAN is too far compared to the European Union because of its consensual formula that it needs to change.
26:14What China is doing, especially, is a bilateral approach because it can be a partner.
26:21There are so many ASEAN countries that literally, whatever their decision is, it's actually a decision of China.
26:30If that is strong, all ASEAN members, like the Philippines, will also be strong and our significance as a country will be more visible, even if we are small.
26:46Professor Ed, you always talk about Southeast Asia.
26:49In fact, you have a project, Democratic Local Governance in Southeast Asia.
26:54But in recent years, the observation of people is that it's like the return of the autocrats or the progenies of the autocrats.
27:04So, where do we go from here?
27:19It's the return of the populist autocrats or simply the autocrats in Southeast Asia and yet, you said ASEAN could be a deal breaker in the problems in the region.
27:30Is ASEAN really a promising partner or pivot entity here or give it up for loss?
27:45You know, even if we say that the leaders of these countries are halal, their root is the autocrats that you mentioned,
28:00it's a different time now. In fact, we can see the new leaders, even if they are from the dynasties, we can see that their perspective is different and more progressive.
28:15I cannot say much about other countries because in other countries, like Cambodia, I saw that their system is a big deal.
28:26The Prime Minister cannot make a decision easily because the parliamentary system is very important when it comes to the direction and power of each member of parliament.
28:42Not only in Cambodia, but we can see that even in Malaysia, there is a similar style. Their system is a big deal for the parliament.
28:54So it's not that easy to bring back the former autocrats.
29:01But Thailand, the situation is different.
29:04Actually, Thailand, even if they have repeatedly impeached their popular leaders, the military junta cannot do it.
29:18The style is too dictatorial. Again, in the case of Thailand, the political parties, even if they are not in power,
29:32they still have a lot of influence because they have control of various industries.
29:41Above all, their monarchy has a big influence. The current king is not popular, the dead king.
29:51But just the same, the monarchy is a very strong institution in Thailand.
29:58In fact, it's not a limiting, but somehow, the tendency of the military is diluted to be more powerful.
30:12So the style is different. In our country, it's mixed. There are children of proven autocrats, but their style is very different.
30:26But the problem with us is that it's too personal. We don't have a political system actually. It's just a political setup.
30:36So much depends simply on the personality. It's hard to analyze. It's easier to analyze our neighbors.
30:44Our neighbors are the children and wives of political clans.
30:52They have a lot of influence. Their participation in the election in May 2025, and if ever the candidates are elected and top rate in the public opinion polls in the Senate,
31:06maybe there will be three Tulfos, two Estrada Ejercitos, two Caetanos, and a billiard.
31:19Then the return of the comeback, the returning senators who used to be non-degenerates.
31:27So what are we looking at? The political clans are stronger now? That's also the situation in the House of Representatives.
31:33And then the capture of the party-list groups by the same political clans. Are we sliding down to more difficult control or greater control by the political clans?
31:48You know, I'm sure of course many are aware that I have always participated in any initiative to change the constitution.
32:00As long as we don't change the system, regardless of who pushes it. My philosophy, even if the image of the President is ugly,
32:14like the time of former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who pushed the charter change, I still support it.
32:22Because those who are in power, the fact that they're pushing for it, whether they're just finding a reason or not, it is still, to my mind, an opening to change the system.
32:33As long as we don't change it, that's where we will go.
32:38Talking about federalism.
32:41Well federalism is one of the forms. But it's not just the form you're looking at, but the details. The political party system and the electoral system.
32:53For example, they said it should be a two-party system. You cannot legislate that. In the United States, it's not just two parties, it's in the electoral system and it's in the party system itself.
33:06That's why our discussion will be long. At the end of the day, we really have to look at the overall setup.
33:13What happened to us, if you look at the Constitution that our forefathers made, it will be based on the European setup.
33:24We have a President, but the President is like the so-called President of Spain, the presiding officer of the parliament, but he's not a President like America.
33:35When we were brought to America, we were not able to form our own system. That's why we adopted the American system.
33:44But other than the basic American setup, we did not adopt their political parties, we did not adopt their federal structure.
33:57That's why we are like this. It's too backward. We are not changing that. There are always people who are against it.
34:06You know, the omnibus election code, in 1985, it was the last time it was visited. It was revised a bit, but in fact, it's a 1942, if I'm not mistaken, piece of legislation.
34:22So you can just imagine how old that election legislation is. We made an automated election law and we have a party list law,
34:34but we did not change the omnibus election code. So if you look at it, the provision is very weak in the definition of political party,
34:42it's just a campaign mechanism. To be honest, it's embarrassing. The electoral code of the bar is very good, very comprehensive.
34:51If that's what we will do, that's what we will do. I'm not saying we adopt the parliamentary system. Of course, ultimately, it would be good.
35:05But at the very least, their definition of political party, significant political party, anti-political dynasty, it's all there.
35:18In our national, we will not do that. So at the end of the day, hopefully, I'm already 52 years old. I'm only 36 years old and we're already involved in pushing that.
35:32You can just imagine how years have passed and nothing still happened.
35:37But the election in BARMM might be postponed. How can that be? Although the BANG Samoro Transitory Congress said it should be continued.
35:46It's not good if this will be postponed. To be honest, what should happen in BARMM, as much as possible, is to let them be autonomous.
36:00We always say that there's a lot of corruption. Where is the party of the government without corruption? At the end of the day, the point is,
36:09make them really decide on their own because that's the only way you can institutionalize how things will be in that region.
36:16I'm sorry, let's be direct. That's why they want to postpone it so they can influence the results in the election that will happen.
36:31There should be an election now so the people can see how they can see the performance of BARMM.
36:39If you extend that, what will happen is the people in BARMM will be angry and the initiative of autonomy in this area will not be successful.
36:51God forbid, we will go back to what happened in the past, which was chaotic.
36:57You said that they want to postpone it so they can control the election. Who are they? Are they angkans or the people of Manila who know about the politics in BARMM?
37:09That's how it is. There's no other person. There's no one we can point out. Historically, that's what's happening Maluno.
37:20We've never really wanted them to decide on their own, which at the end of the day, they actually deserve it.
37:29Just to give you an idea, before, the only good destination for a holiday when it comes to the beach is Boracay.
37:38You know, when you reach Tawi-Tawi, when you reach Sulu, you will see that Boracay has no account compared to other places.
37:48We are going to these places and we have already known the delicious food there and so on.
37:55To my mind, it gives you the idea that hey, the situation in BARMM is different compared to before BARMM.
38:06That's where we will see progress happening, where most of us will see that even with such a small progress, how can we let them go?
38:21All right. Professor Ed, lastly, should the Filipinos be worried? They said that the remittances from the Filipinos in America might go down.
38:31They said that there might be mass deportation. Our government said that it's okay, our relationship will still be strong.
38:40Political, defense and security, trade relations with the U.S. What to do? What should the people of the country watch out for?
38:50Just like what we talked about earlier, I really don't think that's going to happen overnight.
38:56First of all, I don't think it's going to affect much of our countrymen.
39:02As far as I know, for the Filipinos who work, especially in the United States, it's not a majority of blue-collar jobs.
39:13There are many professionals there and it's not easy to remove them, especially if your job is technical, it's not easy to remove them.
39:21Second, if they are sent home en masse, many Filipinos can go. Let's look at the nurses.
39:33In the past, it's hard to get into Japan when it comes to nurses. Now, the need for our nurses is increasing.
39:43There are also more countries that need and need Filipinos to work for them.
39:52Again, at the end of the day, it's a question really of looking for options.
39:56I hope we will have a government that will anticipate that the number of Filipinos working abroad should be reduced.
40:09There are many implications here. We are having a brain drain and at the same time,
40:14the effect of this on the social fabric of the Philippine society is simply remarkable, to say the least.
40:23Again, that will be subject to another extensive discussion. I hope we can see all the implications of this.
40:32All right. Migrant workers are saying that working abroad should be a choice, not a necessity.
40:39But the direction of our government is not going in that direction because the remittances of our OFWs are a big help.
40:49Very true.
40:51So you know, what we are suffering from is that we are exporting not products, we are exporting Filipinos.
41:07But what we are suffering from is our manufacturing capacity.
41:11If you look at the industries, even if we have capacity, because the government is promoting the exportation of Filipinos,
41:22all industries are suffering. If we are going to continue, we should be more hopeful.
41:29That's the reason why they're saying it should be a choice for Filipinos to go and work abroad,
41:37instead of them being simply given no other option other than to go abroad.
41:43All right. Especially our IT personnel. It looks like a lot of them migrated abroad.
41:48A lot.
41:49They are recruiting Filipinos.
41:51A lot. There are a lot of technical jobs that are being forced on us.
41:56You know, before, for example, BPO, we were the enemy of India. Now we are the number one.
42:03It's not because we defeated India. If not, because of India, their enemies have risen.
42:12They are not just targeting BPO. If not, the development of high-value industries is what they are fighting for.
42:23We are also in the service industry.
42:27As a source of copper and whatever is needed for the new technologies of industrialization.
42:37Actually, China's attack on the artificial islands came from us.
42:45Thank you very much Professor Edmundo.
42:49Our story is very important. I hope you become an angel so that there will be no worries under Trump 2.0 presidency.
42:58Thank you very much. Good day and good luck sir.