A Trump presidency could mean a more aggressive and confrontational approach to US China relations, says Parker Novak, fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. David Speers gets more on the foreign policy implications of each candidate in office.
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00:00Still a long way to go in this count, we may not even know tonight.
00:05I want to bring in Parker Novak, he's from the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, as
00:09well as the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative.
00:11Thanks so much for joining us tonight.
00:13Look, we don't know who's going to win this, but I do want to look at the foreign policy
00:17implications, particularly for our part of the world.
00:19You specialize on this.
00:21What is at stake in terms of the U.S.-China relationship if Trump is to prevail tonight?
00:27I think what you're going to see is, if Mr. Trump is to prevail, a more aggressive and
00:32confrontational approach towards China that was manifested during his first term as president
00:38on security issues, economic issues go down the list, and it's something his campaign
00:43has also clearly telegraphed.
00:45But I also think, as part and parcel to that, you're going to see a Trump administration
00:49also prioritizing the Indo-Pacific region as well.
00:52We did see from memory in the first Trump term a bit of a seesawing relationship with
00:56Xi Jinping, and this question of, if we do see in the coming four years an attempt by
01:03China to annex Taiwan, we know Joe Biden has said, what, four times that, yes, he would
01:08have their back militarily, he would intervene.
01:10Trump, I mean, his language has been recently, oh, it's 9,500 miles away, Taiwan.
01:16What does that tell you?
01:18It tells me that Taiwan is probably going to want some reassurances, to state the obvious,
01:24if Mr. Trump wins the election.
01:25But I also think Trump has a long record of people not wanting to, he doesn't want people
01:30to know what his position is, if you will.
01:33I don't say that to, I'm sorry, whitewash what he has said on Taiwan, but-
01:36That deliberate-
01:37There is a deliberate almost head faking that he tries to do as part of his approach to
01:41foreign policy.
01:42Look, climate change hasn't been a big feature here in the campaign, I don't think, but we
01:45watched very closely and the Pacific watches it even more intently.
01:50We know Donald Trump has said he would quit the Paris Agreement.
01:54How would that go down?
01:55What would that do in terms of the U.S. standing in the Pacific?
01:57Yeah, and I think first, as we look at the, I think across the board, you see both parties
02:03prioritizing the Pacific Islands in particular, where climate change issues are really front
02:08and center, arguably the price of doing business.
02:11I think you're going to see prioritization of that sub-region from regardless of who
02:15wins the election.
02:16But I think if the U.S. is to be advancing its diplomatic goals in the region, building
02:21the robust relationships it wants in the Pacific, Trump's positions on climate change may be
02:26a hindrance to that, but I don't think that's going to completely prevent them from engaging
02:30in the region.
02:31It will certainly be a challenge for them, certainly different than what Pacific nations
02:35are wanting to see.
02:36But yeah, I mean, if he were to stand by his position of drill, baby, drill, no Paris Agreement,
02:42how does the Pacific react to that?
02:44Do they turn more to China?
02:45And so at least these guys are doing a bit more.
02:47And I certainly don't think they would react well.
02:49I think to answer the latter part, ultimately, that all depends on what China's actually
02:53doing.
02:54What about Kamala Harris?
02:55There's been some criticism.
02:56We don't really know a lot about her foreign policy plans for the Asia-Pacific region in
03:02particular.
03:03Is it, do we expect a continuation of the Biden administration approach?
03:08I broadly expect continuity from the Biden administration, not across every single issue.
03:12I think broadly, it's safe to say that some of it will come down to personnel who she
03:16appoints to key roles like Secretary of State, National Security Advisor, and where those
03:20individuals prioritize the Indo-Pacific.
03:23Same would be true for the Trump administration as well, but I think broadly speaking, general
03:27continuity.
03:28And what's the talk around town about those positions?
03:31Whoever wins, Trump, Harris, Secretary of State, any inside word on who we could expect
03:36to see?
03:37Yeah, and all public information.
03:38But yeah, I think you're seeing names like Linda Thomas-Greenfield and CIA Director Bill
03:43Burns thrown around on the Democratic side.
03:45On the Republican side, you've seen names like Bill Hagerty, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio,
03:50Marco Rubio, several others thrown around.
03:52It's going to come down to ultimately also who's confirmable by the president, depending
03:57how control over there shakes out tonight.
03:59Yeah, exactly.
04:00What they can get through Congress.
04:02Foreign policy, it has a big impact, this election outcome on the world, but does it
04:08really matter in terms of the domestic election stakes, what their foreign policy positions
04:13are?
04:14Yeah, and I think you've seen foreign policy certainly discussed during the election campaign
04:17with certain segments of voters.
04:18It has resonated.
04:19Certainly, what's happening in the Middle East.
04:21Certainly.
04:22I think if you look at a lot of the exit polling that's come out tonight, it shows voters,
04:24no surprise, prioritizing economic issues, issues of democracy, immigration as well.
04:30I think I saw the NBC and CNN exit polls, each had foreign policy, 4% for what is your
04:35top priority.
04:36You know, it has certainly been a flashpoint during the campaign.