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00:00This election will of course resonate and have consequences for the rest of the world
00:05depending on who wins.
00:07Can you tell us what potential concerns each candidate carries when it comes to the global
00:11stage?
00:14Well, we've seen a radically different approach to the world.
00:20And for that, I want to bring in Leo Michel from the Atlantic Council, formerly who's
00:26worked at U.S. Defense Secretary's offices, worked for NATO.
00:30Thanks for being with us here on France 24.
00:32It's a pleasure to be here.
00:34The question put to us is about these two radically world views.
00:38The United States, for all the talk of decline, still remains the world's predominant superpower.
00:45How radical is the choice when it comes to foreign policy?
00:49I think it's pretty significant.
00:50In the area where I've spent most of my professional career, and mostly in the Department of Defense,
00:57I've worked a lot on issues concerning the former Soviet Union and Russia in the area
01:02of arms control.
01:04And then the last 15 years or so, really focusing on our defense relationship with Europe.
01:10And the difference could not be more clear.
01:13Part of that is not the fault of the United States.
01:17We have, with the all-out invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin, a return to this East versus
01:24West dichotomy.
01:27Has the West forgotten that language of deterrence, and have these candidates, are they aware
01:32of how to speak to the rest of the world?
01:36I think Vice President Harris is.
01:38And I've seen this not only in speeches, but in comments that she's made, in interviews
01:45and so forth, where it's not so pre-planned.
01:49And she's coming at this from a position where she was not apparently a major influence on
01:55President Biden's foreign policy, but he had such a long CV, if you will, of experience
02:02dealing with European defense issues, and in particular NATO, that would have been difficult
02:10to match.
02:11But still, I think that she's someone who appreciates and understands the value, the
02:16importance of the alliance.
02:17And this is not a gift to Europeans.
02:20How different is she from him?
02:22From Biden?
02:23Yes.
02:25I think it's a question of how long have her associations taken place.
02:30And Biden really has an amazing personal network that he could have.
02:36He spent the last couple of years of the Obama administration doing a lot of specific
02:41work on Ukraine, encouraging them to fight corruption, to strengthen their democracy,
02:48and sometimes in some rough language.
02:50He's very, very active, very knowledgeable about the Balkans as well.
02:55And these are areas where you simply can't, overnight, kind of pick up expertise.
03:02But I'm convinced, at least, from her interactions that I've seen with Europeans, her presence
03:07at the Munich Security Conference, and the way she worked even with Zelensky a couple
03:15days before the Russian invasion in February 2022 to let him know that this is for real,
03:21this is coming.
03:22Those are not jobs that you give to a second-rate person.
03:25So you're suggesting she's got all the competence needed, but is she different from Biden?
03:32I don't think she will be, although I will say that, for example, in the case of Ukraine,
03:38the president has been, at times, cautious about trying to find this right balance between
03:44supporting Ukrainian independence and territorial sovereignty and increasing the military support
03:50for them, while being careful not to be in the position where he could somehow end up
03:57having a direct U.S.-Russian military confrontation.
04:01And I understand that, but it's a difficult choice.
04:04What we don't know, and it's difficult to predict now, is whether or not Kamala Harris,
04:10if elected, will make the same balance of risk and benefit in terms of the details of
04:16her policy.
04:17But I have no doubt that she's someone who understands the long-term threat that Russia
04:21poses.
04:22That balance that we're talking about, just be noted, it's not just a presidential election
04:30today.
04:31There's also all kinds of issues on the ballot, including re-electing one-third of the Senate
04:36and the whole of the Congress.
04:38The last time they gave $50 billion for military aid to Ukraine.
04:43Some saying even if Kamala Harris is elected president, that was the last check signed
04:47by Washington when it comes to Ukraine.
04:50I doubt that, but it will depend in part on the results of the election.
04:53I don't think, in fact, I'm pretty confident if re-elected, Donald Trump is not going to
05:01be a strong proponent of military assistance to Ukraine.
05:06And we shouldn't forget that, I believe it was June or July of 2023, at a campaign rally,
05:13he threatened fellow Republicans.
05:15He said, do not vote one penny for military assistance to Ukraine, or I will support a
05:21primary candidate before you.
05:23And he didn't link that at all to the strategic situation in Ukraine.
05:27He linked it to his charge that the FBI and CIA were withholding embarrassing information
05:34about Hunter Biden.
05:36I mean, this is, I won't even go into the details.
05:41I'll simply recall that in 2019, the reason for his impeachment, his first of two impeachments,
05:48was that he wanted to withhold offensive or defensive military arms, Javelin missiles
05:55from Ukraine until Zelensky, as he said in the transcript, which was public, made public,
06:03I want you to do a favor for me first.
06:04And that was a political favor to open an investigation of Hunter Biden.
06:09Okay, so Trump's worldview tainted by personal grievances.
06:15But what about those around him?
06:16The former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been touted as a possible defense secretary
06:22should Trump return to the White House.
06:25Are they all nativists?
06:26Are they all isolationists?
06:27Are they all for signing a deal with Putin on day one?
06:31I don't know.
06:32Now, there are some hints in that direction.
06:34Before I go where the hints are, I would like to point out that this is unprecedented to
06:39have so many senior, retired senior generals and diplomats, including five or six of his
06:45closest, Mr. Trump's closest defense advisors, two of his defense secretaries, two of his
06:52national security advisors, and even his chief of staff, who was himself a retired general,
06:58come out and say that Trump essentially does not understand and value alliances.
07:03And that was a major reason for their clash.
07:06So that's the past.
07:09I think there will be a strong inclination on the part of Mr. Trump, if reelected, to
07:14pick people that are not going to say no to him.
07:17What will that do to the United States?
07:19What will it do to the Pax Americana, the world order we've seen since World War II?
07:25I think it increases the risk that we will be seen as a power that's in decline, obsessed
07:34with our, preoccupied with our domestic chaos.
07:38One of the reasons that we've seen this uptick recently in Russian and apparently Iranian
07:44disinformation on social networks is, I think, to create exactly that.
07:48And it's incredible that an American oligarch, Elon Musk, seems to be perfectly willing to
07:55lend his social network to that effort.
07:59So there's a question of American hard power that we have to face.
08:03There's been very little discussion of what should our defense budget be like in the future.
08:12How should we apportion that, the priorities?
08:14And that's a shame.
08:15But there's been virtually no discussion at all, at least from the Republican side, on
08:20what does this do for American soft power?
08:22I wonder what American soft power is going to look like if some of the domestic policies
08:26that Mr. Trump is proposing, like rounding up 10 to 15 million undocumented migrants
08:36in the United States and putting them in camps and deporting them.
08:41What's that going to look like for American democracy, for the values that we hold dear,
08:47even though if we implement them imperfectly?
08:49All right.
08:50Louis Michel, I want to thank you so much for joining us here on Franco.
08:53Thank you very much.
08:54There you have it, Charlie, the worry from somebody who is a man with a foot on both
09:02sides of the Atlantic at this, the midway point of voting on Election Day.
09:08Francois, thanks so much for that.