In this insightful discussion, Former Diplomat Suresh Kumar Goel analyzes the contrasting leadership styles of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, highlighting the implications for India. Goel argues that Trump's unpredictable and volatile nature poses risks for bilateral relations, while Harris's steadiness and diplomatic approach present a more favorable option for India.
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00:00Talking about statistics and the business figures, if I may quote here, I mean, in this
00:05Joe Biden administration, India has signed better and bigger deals as far as defense
00:11technology and AI is concerned, as compared to what we had seen in the era of Donald Trump.
00:17Do you believe that for the United States vis-a-vis India, be it Republican or be it
00:23Democrats, it is as much as India needs the United States, the scenario is that the United
00:28States too needs an India?
00:33Let me try and draw a kind of a balance sheet given the global situation and what the American
00:43priorities could be for Trump and for Kamala Harris in the two different scenarios.
00:50Number one, Trump is a very transactional person.
00:55I'm saying Trump first because Trump's performance as a president is a known quantity and therefore
01:02we can predicate our own analysis on what he did during his first presidency.
01:09Now, Trump was very transactional during the first presidency also, now being transactional
01:15is not bad.
01:16Every foreign policy can be transactional, but he also displayed very volatile behavior
01:23from time to time, very short term choices and very often one could see changes in the
01:30policy decisions depending upon, to say in a rather flippant manner, what his mood during
01:38the morning was, whether he got up on the right side or the wrong side and he could
01:43change his mind anytime without giving any indication to anyone that he was going to
01:47change.
01:48Now, the impact of that really would be if Trump on one day felt that Indian exposed
01:58to the United States is heavily impacted by low tariff duties and it is hurting the American
02:05interest as it is, he's actually imposing a tariff duty on all the imports.
02:10USA, he could suddenly decide that enough is enough and I'm going to increase the tariff
02:15on Indian imports.
02:16That would impact heavily on the Indian trade.
02:20Defense supplies, again, basically it would depend upon what he thinks will be his interest
02:27with the other powers.
02:29If the relationship with China were to start improving and he found that the trade interests
02:35are served better for the USA with China, he could take entirely a different decision
02:41At the same time, he could think that, yes, we can be with him strongly if the Chinese
02:50relationship has gone into a further adversarial.
02:54So you see, it changes.
02:56There is no permanence or there is no durability in the behavior.
02:59On the other hand, Kamala Harris, I think we can expect during Kamala Harris's time
03:07a much more kind of steady, durable and anticipated kind of a relationship where we can work out
03:15our policy choices on a long term basis rather than going through moment to moment.
03:21But then in the case of Kamala Harris, and we should not think of Kamala Harris as an
03:26Indian.
03:27I mean, she may be born of an Indian mother, but basically she's American and she's going
03:33to keep the American democratic policy at the center.
03:36Yes, yes, absolutely.
03:37For the Democrats, religious rights, human rights, etc., etc. are going to take the center
03:43core.
03:44And therefore, Kamala Harris may decide that the minority rights are not being in India,
03:50not what they should be.
03:51So what will she do?
03:53So we have to keep both the sides in the picture.
03:55But I think Kamala Harris will be a better bet for India than Trump, because at least
04:01we know what to expect with Kamala Harris.
04:04With Trump, it is difficult to make any predictions.
04:08Yes.
04:09That's my, that's my thinking, yes.