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00:00All right, let's get to week 7 in the NFL Sunday slate, and our pick 6 here on the early line.
00:06A reminder, our favorite touchdown scorer, our favorite money line underdog, the best under of the weekend,
00:12an alt line with a sprinkle of plus money, or perhaps in Joe's case, a large plus money sprinkle,
00:19our favorite yardage prop of the week, and we combine forces for a two-leg, six-point teaser
00:24that finally hit for us six weeks into the NFL campaign a Sunday ago.
00:29Joe, please begin. Your favorite touchdown scorer of the weekend is who and in what game?
00:36Yeah, well, we're still waiting for some of the props to post here for this game,
00:41but I am a big believer that points are coming in this Raiders game.
00:46I think that defense is going to be in for a very, very long afternoon
00:52against a rested and now healthy Rams team.
00:56That, in all likelihood, would include one Cooper Cupp back in action here.
01:02It looks like he is trending to play, and if he does, yes.
01:07Keep in mind, this is a Rams team that has lost one score games to the Packers, to the Lions, and to the Bears,
01:13and they have been hurt the entire way through getting healthy on defense and the offensive line.
01:19I think Cooper Cupp doesn't play without finding the end zone here.
01:24I'm going with Cooper Cupp. Welcome back.
01:27And it is a total of 43 and a half in that game, Joe.
01:30On FanDuel, still no touchdown scorer props out just yet.
01:34I'd also look at Kyron Williams, who has been great for LA this season.
01:39Like you said, a lot of matchup advantages for the Rams,
01:42utilizing an early bye week, and they needed it to get healthy.
01:45My favorite touchdown scorer of the weekend. Welcome back, Joe Mixon.
01:49On the road in Green Bay, great game against the Packers on deck.
01:53Two and a half points spread in favor of the Pack. Total 47 and a half.
01:58Three total touchdowns, Joe, for Joe Mixon in his two fully healthy games,
02:02including, as we saw last week, finding Pater twice, both on the ground and through the air, as Houston had him return.
02:11That's a big thing for the Texans, I think, in this spot.
02:15Give me Joe Mixon at an even plus 100 number to find Pater.
02:20And quickly, just want to mention this, Miami and Indianapolis.
02:23TD score props weren't out as of last night when we were putting this all together.
02:28Almost on principle, Joe, kind of like you hit big with Mark Andrews last week at plus 320 to score for the first time this year.
02:35I know Miami's offense has been putrid, without to a tongue of Iloa,
02:39but Tyreek Hill at plus 175 in Indy after a bye to figure things out might just be worth it
02:46because you don't see those numbers on Tyreek throughout a regular season.
02:51Yeah, no, when you told me that was the number, I was like, you got to be kidding me here.
02:56Coming off the bye, Huntley's now had how much time in the to figure some things out here?
03:02I got no problem with that. I think that's just a that's an automatic from this point forward
03:08because the market seems to have forgotten how ridiculously electric he is.
03:12Yeah, and you got to think they'd feed him the ball in whatever way.
03:16I'm not saying he's got to break down the field and Tyler Huntley's got to hit him on a 70-yard pass,
03:21screen pass, hand him the ball off, end the round, whatever it is to find Pater.
03:26Mike McDaniel needs to show he's got some offensive ingenuity, even with the cards stacked against him.
03:32Moneyline underdog, Joe, who's pulling the upset on Sunday?
03:36Oh, I believe Seattle is pulling the upset on Sunday against Atlanta.
03:42This market has completely lost their mind with this Atlanta team.
03:48And I do think, of course, getting a little healthier on defense,
03:52which is exactly what the Seahawks will be here this week.
03:55They get Byron Murphy back on the defensive front there.
04:00Wooley will be back in the secondary.
04:02So all of the pieces that have been out for Seattle defensively will be back.
04:09And that's good news because I do believe that the way to beat this Atlanta team with Kurt Cousins
04:17is by putting pressure on them and pressure I think they will get.
04:20Conversely, Atlanta cannot get two quarterbacks.
04:25Geno Smith will have all day in the pocket to hit DK Metcalf all over the place,
04:30along with Jackson Smith and Jemba, in a game that they want to have.
04:34McDonald's even said it.
04:36This is going to be a much bigger game to Seattle than it is to Atlanta.
04:40I think Atlanta takes a step back.
04:41I think Seattle wins outright on the road.
04:45Fifty and a half the total for that game as well.
04:48Seattle, such a strong start, 3-0.
04:50But because of competition, some poked holes in the resume.
04:54They've at least looked correct in the last three weeks.
04:56The Hawks on a three-game skid.
04:58No covers in any of the three.
05:01Twice as an underdog.
05:03Can they turn it around in the A on Sunday?
05:06My Moneyline Underdog, the rest of our Week 7 Pick 6.
05:10Up next, our Sunday slate preview.
05:13Our Week 7 Pick 6.
05:14Our best bets continue here on this Football Friday on the early line.
05:19My Moneyline Underdog for Sunday.
05:21Not all that staunch of an underdog.
05:24It's Detroit on the road in Minneapolis.
05:27I think the Lions are the best team in the NFC North.
05:30Heck, they might be the best team at current moment in all of the conference.
05:34I think they show that.
05:35Minnesota is a good team.
05:37Yes, there will be some regression after a perfect 5-0 start.
05:41Still expect the Vikes to factor in to the playoff race.
05:44But this feels to be the spot where Minnesota, even after a bye,
05:49suffered its first defeat of the year.
05:51Detroit has not been booked as an underdog yet this season.
05:55And they were not often an underdog as they turned things around in a historic season in 2023.
06:01But last year, Joe, 3-1 against the spread.
06:05All they need to do is win outright this week with a plus-1 ten price on the Moneyline.
06:10Give me Detroit to start 5-1.
06:12Hand the Vikings their first loss.
06:14Fall to 5-1.
06:16The Lions would be in first in a highly competitive NFC North.
06:20Yeah, and listen, defensively, it's going to be rough for Detroit.
06:26But at the same time, you know what happens when you lose your star player on that side of the ball.
06:32Usually that first game afterwards, everyone wants to get up and perform for that.
06:38And he was the unmitigated leader of that team.
06:41So I think you're going to get a much better Detroit defensive effort than you would think.
06:46And ultimately, I think with you, Ben, Minnesota?
06:49That might be the paper of all paper tigers this season in the NFL.
06:54Yeah, it's a great start.
06:56How long does Sam Darnold keep it going?
06:58We shall see.
06:59Defensively, though, Detroit is going to have to fill a huge void without Aiden Hutchinson.
07:04Could plague them later in the year.
07:06Don't think it's the differentiating factor for Sunday.
07:10Favorite under of the weekend.
07:12What are we sweating out on Sunday, Joe Ranieri?
07:15Well, we talked about it earlier in the show, and I just have absolutely no idea how the Giants are going to score any points in this game here.
07:25It is quite obvious they've got injuries, including to the one offensive lineman they could rely on in Andrew Thomas.
07:33He is now gone.
07:35They have backups across the board on the offensive line backing up Danny Dimes.
07:40This is not a good situation.
07:43Against a terrible Cincinnati defense that couldn't stop a nosebleed, they only managed seven points in that game here.
07:51Vic Fangio and this Eagles offense starting to figure it out.
07:56They're going to take advantage of the injuries on the offensive line.
08:00I can't count on the Giants to give me enough to even consider the over.
08:04And let's face it.
08:05Did you see this offense of Philadelphia run against the Browns?
08:11I would expect a lot of Saquon Barkley, a lot of running.
08:14The only thing they care about is winning the game.
08:17And I don't think this thing is sniffing 43 points.
08:21In their two domestic wins this year, because, of course, they started the season, that being Philadelphia out in Sao Paolo.
08:28They have played heavily under.
08:30They beat the Saints 15 to 12, 27 combined points, well under 49 and a half.
08:35Last week, eight and a half point favorite against the Putrid Browns.
08:39Come nowhere close to covering.
08:40They went 20 to 16, under 42.
08:44The defense under Vic Fangio is better.
08:46The Giants offense, a struggle.
08:48We'll see if Philippe Neighbors is back, if he can pass concussion protocol to play on Sunday.
08:55Joe, I expect Philadelphia to win.
08:57It's a very intriguing spot this upcoming Sunday in MetLife.
09:01Again, an Eagles team that has a winning record that is 3-2.
09:05But they're not looking or feeling all that good right now.
09:09And as you mentioned, Jordan Mailotta out for the Eagles.
09:13The Giants, 26 sacks.
09:15The most in the NFL following six weeks.
09:19Let's go to my favorite under.
09:21It's Titans team, total under 15 and a half.
09:2440 and a half is the total for a game that features eight and a half points in favor of Buffalo in Western New York on Sunday.
09:32I don't think it's going to be a picture-perfect, pretty game.
09:35And I certainly do not trust Will Levis.
09:3895 yards, a touchdown, and a pick last week at home for Tennessee.
09:43A 1-4 football team this year that has scored 17 points or less in all four losses.
09:51Buffalo, in their last three wins, has held the opposition at 20 points or less.
09:56I think it's an easy win for Buffalo.
09:58I'm not sure Tennessee gets more than two touchdowns on the board.
10:01I'll go Titans under 15 and a half for my favorite under.
10:06All right.
10:06Alt-line, some juicy plus-money plays, Joe.
10:09What gets your attention?
10:11Yeah, so I'm going to go to a game, Ben, that we talked about here that seems to, well, we're expecting a few points.
10:18Aren't we in this Detroit and Minnesota game?
10:21So how about we go with Jordan, with David Montgomery, rather, to get two or more touchdowns in the game?
10:29What are we thinking about that with the opportunity there?
10:32I think not only in the red zone, but an opportunity to be able to out-physical the Vikings, because that is who the Detroit Lions are.
10:41I would expect a couple of opportunities not to get cute in a red zone, to hand the ball off and impose their will.
10:49I think he's got a good shot at getting more than two touchdowns in this game.
10:54When you see that number of plus-460, it is worth a sprinkle.
10:5850-and-a-half, one of our three games with a total of 50-plus on Sunday, and David Montgomery scored twice last weekend.
11:06He has scored in every game.
11:08He's got six rushing scores for Detroit, tied for the second most, at least on the ground around the NFL.
11:14My alt-line, Jets, team total over 23-and-a-half in the Steel City on Sunday.
11:22Listen, I recognize that Pittsburgh is the second-best scoring defense in the NFL, limiting opponents to just 14.3 points per game.
11:31It's not even like Joe—ooh, I think I found an edge in the handicap.
11:34You see, Pittsburgh's not great at this, and here's why Aaron Rodgers can't take advantage, yada, yada, yada.
11:39No, it's simple.
11:40It is now or never.
11:42You get Devontae Adams, who is not going to fix your offensive line, who's not going to fix your kicking game,
11:47who's not going to make your up-front defense better at defending the run,
11:51it better be because you start scoring 35-plus per game.
11:55That's how it has to happen now for the Jets if they are going to snap a 13-year playoff drought
12:01and carve their way out of a 2-and-4 hole to start this year.
12:07It needs to start on Sunday night, and it needs to be a prolific points production night.
12:13Over 23-and-a-half, Jets team total, Joe, at plus 190.
12:19Because if it does not hit with a small sprinkle,
12:22we get to laugh at Aaron Rodgers and condemn his play on Monday morning.
12:28More around the Pick 6 comes your way next.
12:31Live right here on the early line for just a few more minutes on this Football Friday
12:35to give you our final picks for the Sunday slate to round out the Week 7 Pick 6.
12:41All right, yardage prop time.
12:43A player that we like to go off on Sunday.
12:47Joe Ranieri, for you, who is that guy?
12:51I'm going to stick. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
12:53Highest-scoring game of the weekend is going to be this Minnesota and Detroit game,
12:58and I am going with Justin Jefferson, up and over 92-and-a-half yards receiving.
13:06He averages 10 targets a game most of the time when he plays this Detroit team.
13:12He's also got 124 or more receiving yards in six of his last seven games against them.
13:18I would expect, with the two edge rushers of the Lions being down, Ben,
13:23that Sam Darnold and company are going to take a few more shots down the field
13:28and will have a little more time to do so.
13:31So I think it's big-game time for Jefferson.
13:34I think he gets at least 100. I'm expecting a big day from him.
13:3981-plus for J-Jet in the last four games with Sam Darnold,
13:43despite Joe not having more than six grabs in any of those four.
13:48Explosive this year. He has loved Sam E.D. in what Darnold has been able to do
13:53for this Kevin O'Connell offense.
13:55And to your point, even with Aidan Hutchinson,
13:58Detroit has not been great defending the pass the last two years.
14:01Sixth-worst so far this year.
14:03Sixth-worst the entirety of the regular season a year ago.
14:08My favorite yardage prop, Jaden Daniels.
14:10Over 241.5 passing yards against Carolina.
14:148.5 points spread in favor of the Commanders.
14:17Highest total of the weekend at 51.5.
14:20I think this is going to be a high-scoring game.
14:22I'm not sure I want to lay 8.5 with Washington in this spot,
14:26but I do think Jaden Daniels takes advantage of one of the worst defenses in the NFL,
14:31that being Carolina.
14:33They have not been bad or nearly as bad in every other angle against the pass
14:38as they have been on that defensive side of the football.
14:41Only one passer, Joe, has thrown for more than .250 this year.
14:45His name?
14:46Caleb Williams a couple of weeks ago.
14:48I think Jaden Daniels tries to do the same as the rookie signal caller
14:51he is battling with for the Offensive Rookie of the Year at this moment.
14:57Daniels over 241.5 against Carolina.
15:01Five of six games over for Washington, Joe.
15:04All four starts that Andy Dalton has made for the Panthers over as well.
15:09I do think we see some points on Sunday outside the nation's capital.
15:13Yeah, another one of these games, man.
15:15It'd be very hard to look at anything other than and over here.
15:20You've got one side, well, both sides defensively.
15:24Kind of not known to be stopping teams,
15:27and I do think they're going to play from in front,
15:29and I would expect that that effort against Baltimore was impressive.
15:34I expect them to continue to build off of that,
15:36and yes, prior to that, it seemed like 30, 40 points a game.
15:40Not a problem for Washington.
15:42I don't see how it's going to be a problem here either.
15:44Yeah, they looked good last week.
15:46They did not cover by the hook,
15:47but they still were not overmatched, I would say, in any angle by the Ravens.
15:53All right, for the first time this season, it took us six weeks,
15:56but it did happen.
15:57We combined forces for a two-leg, six-point teaser,
16:00and it did hit, courtesy of a Broncos backdoor cover of a number up to nine.
16:06So let's do it again, Germinari.
16:08Start us off with your first leg of this six-point teaser.
16:12I think it's simple, Ben.
16:13I mean, you like this team to win as a Moneyline dog.
16:18I think there's no reason, if I can get Detroit over a touchdown,
16:22not to include them in teasers, and that's exactly what we're doing.
16:26They're getting one and a half right now.
16:29Kind of a no-brainer to get me seven and a half in a game
16:32that I, too, like them to win outright.
16:34And they are going to be in a few teasers that I have this week.
16:38No doubt.
16:38No doubt.
16:39Feels like a great teaser spot through two crucial numbers.
16:42Germinari, you are heavily invested in Lions-Vikings
16:45in Minneapolis on Sunday, my friend.
16:48It better not be 3-0, Ben.
16:50Otherwise, we're kind of screwed here all day.
16:53So, yeah, let's hope for some points and for Detroit to win this game outright.
16:57Yes, the last three picks in the pick six all in that game.
17:03I'm going to take the bills down from eight and a half
17:05through a touchdown, through a field goal, lay only two, and a hook.
17:10Listen, I don't think it's a pretty game.
17:12I don't think it's a super high-scoring game in Orchard Park.
17:15I just have no belief in Will Levis as a starting quarterback.
17:19It's time to turn to Mason Rudolph.
17:20Brian Callahan, if you want to be around for more than one year.
17:24I'll take the bills minus two and a half, Joe.
17:28Yeah, no, I kind of, I like that.
17:30It's a, the bills will win the game.
17:33It's just a matter of how much, Ben.
17:35The idea that they get a three-point win, at least a three-point win.
17:38I'm with you there.
17:40I like our chances here this week.
17:42Let's keep it rolling into week six.
17:44I'll see you tomorrow for week eight of college football.
17:47We'll see everybody on the early line on Monday.
17:50Have a great weekend.