None of the systems in the tropics right now will affect the U.S. mainland, but that doesn't mean they'll have no effect at all.
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00:00We've had 13 named storms, that's close to average. We're typically around 12 by now,
00:04but the thing that's been a little unusual has been the disproportionate number of storms that
00:08have become hurricanes, and among them, those that have made landfall in the U.S. as well.
00:14Nine hurricanes, typically by now we have six, and we've had four major hurricanes.
00:19Typically by the end of October we've had three major hurricanes. So we have two areas,
00:23we're calling both of these tropical rainstorms. Neither of these are organized tropical
00:27depressions or tropical storms, but they are still impactful, and that's why we use that
00:31phrase tropical rainstorm, because they are more than just maybe a tropical wave. You can see this
00:35disturbance moving west. This is going to bring two to four inches of rain to northern parts of
00:39Hispaniola. This is a large zone with rain, showers, and thunderstorms into the western
00:44Caribbean. That has about two days before it will move over land, and again, this has the chance to
00:51develop into perhaps a brief short-lived tropical depression. We'll have to see if that materializes,
00:57but we are likely going to at least hold on to the flooding rainfall potential here in a localized
01:03fashion into Belize and places like the Yucatan Peninsula. So localized flash flooding tied to
01:08some extra heavier rain. Water temps are in the mid-80s there. We've cooled down a bit in the
01:12eastern Caribbean, or eastern Gulf I should say, with some deeper colder water coming up to the
01:17surface after the top layer of the water got swept aside by both Helene and then Milton, but
01:23look at the wind shear now across the Gulf of Mexico and South Florida. This is great news. The
01:28purple, this is wind that would really keep any development very disheveled, and it would prevent
01:35any named storm from coming into this area and surviving. So this is pretty inhospitable wind
01:41regarding hurricanes, so that's going to be protecting us at least for now. There's no
01:46guarantee that we're totally done here in the Gulf of Mexico, but the longer we hold on to a
01:50pattern like this deeper into late October, the better we will be, and typically we see that shift
01:56into November where these late season November storms are a little more likely into the Caribbean
02:01and the western Atlantic and a little less likely near the central Gulf Coast. We do have an area
02:05with that lighter pastel color near Puerto Rico and also east-northeast of Nicaragua and Honduras.
02:11Those are the areas where we have some chance for development, but for high pressure to sit like
02:15this over the southeast, the recent front that has parked itself all the way down to the Bahamas,
02:19the wind shear, we are going to be protected for now in Florida. The tropical rainstorm we're
02:24tracking is going to be moving west-northwest, passing probably just north of Puerto Rico.
02:28We're concerned about this still in a narrow window of opportunity, potentially becoming a
02:32weak tropical storm. It'll bring some heavy rain to the north side of Hispaniola. Regardless,
02:37gusts of wind may still reach 40 plus miles per hour for some this weekend, and we're most
02:41concerned about the two to four inches of rain in the mountains terrain of far northern parts
02:45of Hispaniola and northeastern parts of Cuba. That's where the greatest impacts would likely be
02:50regarding some dangers, but a little bit of good news in the Gulf of Mexico. Oceanic heat content
02:56all the way back down to average. We love seeing that, Damien, after where we spent most of the
03:00past two months. Now we're still above average in the main development region, so the tropical
03:04Atlantic is still running very, very warm. That's right, and even on our calendar, our hurricane
03:08calendar, we are still in a very active stretch here as we head into November, so do not let your
03:13guard down because we could still be tracking some more potential development across the tropics.