Not much rain is expected in the next week or so with high pressure continuing to dominate the UK weather. There are signs that it could finally warm up a bit next week and that the frosty mornings might go away too. Alex Deakin takes a look.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello. Welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend.
00:03April so far has been on the chilly side
00:06and also really quite dry.
00:08And both of those trends will continue,
00:10at least for the next few days and nights,
00:12with morning frosts a big feature of the weather
00:15into the weekend.
00:16However, there are some signs it might get a little warmer
00:19through next week.
00:21With dry weather, that's usually
00:23associated with high pressure.
00:24And one is sitting right across the UK at the moment.
00:28It does amble away steadily over the next couple of days.
00:31It remains controlling our weather.
00:33But as it shifts away, it does allow these weather fronts
00:36just to trickle up towards the northwest of Scotland,
00:39more particularly this one by Sunday.
00:41Now, there's a bit of uncertainty
00:43about the exact position of this weather front, which
00:45I can show you by showing you the spaghetti plot.
00:48That's where we run the computer model several times.
00:50And each of the computer model runs
00:52then plots the position of that weather front.
00:54It's useful for picking out the uncertainty in the position.
00:57And you can see that weather fronts could be across much
01:00of Scotland and Northern Ireland on Sunday.
01:02But its most likely position is just to the far northwest.
01:06But there will be some rain across the northwest,
01:09it looks like, on Sunday.
01:10It could be across just the Outer Hebrides.
01:12But also, it could be further south
01:13through much of Northern Ireland and into parts
01:16of central Scotland.
01:17So that's some uncertainty for the weekend.
01:19But for the vast majority through the rest
01:22of this week and the weekend, the weather's
01:23dry and bright by day.
01:25But staying on the chilly side, particularly cold at night
01:28with morning frosts continue to be in place through the weekend
01:33and probably beyond as well.
01:34Because even into the early part of next week,
01:36high pressure is still nearby.
01:37There's that weather front.
01:38I say still a lot of uncertainty by the time
01:40we get to the early part of next week about the position of it.
01:43But it's being affected either side by high pressure.
01:46So it's kind of getting wrung out, if you like.
01:48So the weather fronts will be weakening all the time.
01:52And then the high pressure that dominates,
01:54well, that's the big question as we go through next week.
01:57But certainly, high pressure is expected
01:59to be in control of our weather, as this chart shows
02:02the probabilistic pressure trend.
02:04An awful lot of red on there, red
02:07indicating that high pressure.
02:08There are the dates going forward.
02:10And as I said, a lot of red, high pressure
02:12dominating through next week.
02:14But the shape and position of that high
02:17is crucial for dictating the kind of flow we get
02:21and therefore the kind of temperatures we could see.
02:24And there's a bit more uncertainty
02:25about that, as is shown here.
02:27This is the zonal trend about whether we'll
02:29see an easterly or a westerly flow across the UK.
02:33And you can see not as strong a signal, particularly
02:35through the middle part of next week.
02:36The colour's not as strong.
02:38It becomes much more wishy-washy about whether we'll
02:40see more of an easterly flow or a westerly flow.
02:43So that's the big uncertainty about next week.
02:45But we are pretty confident that high pressure
02:47will continue to bring a lot of dry weather.
02:50And also, there are signs from most of the computer models
02:53that it will slowly start to get a little bit warmer.
02:56This is the meteorogram for Manchester.
02:58Again, the European model plotting the temperature
03:01trend.
03:02The smaller the disk or the nodule,
03:05the greater the certainty.
03:06So at the moment, the next few days,
03:09that red line there is the average.
03:10You can see that temperature's generally just below average.
03:13But there is a trend there to see a rise in temperatures
03:15as we go through, particularly towards the end of next week.
03:18But by then, of course, there's much more uncertainty.
03:21So the blobs are bigger.
03:22You can see that trend also in the nighttime temperatures
03:25as well.
03:25At the moment, well below the average line.
03:28But that trend upwards, albeit with increasing uncertainty
03:32as we go through next week.
03:33So the things you know about next week,
03:35high pressure is most likely to be dominating, which will,
03:38again, continue the dry theme.
03:40And it has been a very dry spring so far.
03:42And probably, things finally at least turning a little bit
03:45warmer with maybe less of a nighttime frost risk,
03:49especially by the end of next week.
03:51Keep up to date with the very latest from the Met Office
03:54by following us on social media.