Israel’s security cabinet is set to vote on a response to Iran’s missile attack as Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says it will be “powerful, precise, and above all – surprising." In Tehran, CNN's Fred Pleighten reports that Iranians appeared calm and defiant as their country braces for Israel's retaliation. Kirsten Fontenrose, President of Red Six International, joins CNN's Becky Anderson to discuss. #CNN #News
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00:00It's certainly very much a region on edge here right now.
00:03And really, we were out and about in the streets here of Tehran once again today, Becky, and
00:07we did hear a lot of people who said they're not necessarily as concerned about that possible
00:11Israeli strike, but really about the whole situation escalating and in the end possibly
00:15pitting Iran and the U.S. directly against one another, Becky.
00:19Yeah, and it's been interesting, hasn't it?
00:22Because from the perspective where I am here in the Gulf, for years, Iran has posed a significant
00:32threat when you talk to sources and leadership around this region.
00:37But for the past couple of years, there has been a rapprochement, very specifically from
00:42Saudi Arabia, mediated, of course, by the Chinese, and better, I won't say good, but
00:49better relations between, for example, the UAE and Iran.
00:54The calculus now, of course, as we see these very visible images of the Iranian foreign
00:59minister in Riyadh, for example, and then in Doha, the calculus here is, what does this
01:07part of the world do with regard to Tehran?
01:10Do you keep it closer in order to protect yourselves?
01:15Or will we see a further distancing again?
01:18And I think certainly from the perspective where we are here, you are seeing this region
01:24stay close to ensure that they don't, you know, that there are no missteps.
01:31What's the sense where you are?
01:34Well, first of all, I think you're absolutely right about the fact that there has been a
01:38rapprochement over the past couple of years.
01:40And I think that that is really something that's set in after the Trump administration
01:45left office.
01:46Because, of course, the Trump administration had very close relations with Saudi Arabia.
01:49At that time, you'll recall, there were also really big tensions between Saudi Arabia and
01:53Qatar as well, with the Iranians siding with Qatar and really the Saudis there with the
02:00United States really pushing for a more dominant role in the Middle East.
02:04And certainly we have seen in the past couple of years a big rapprochement between Saudi
02:09Arabia especially and Iran sort of starting to set or to take place.
02:15One of the things that really set that in motion was the administration of Ibrahim Raisi,
02:21less so Raisi himself, but more so his foreign minister, Hossein Amir Abdullahian, who really
02:25started those talks with the Saudis and tried to get that relation jumpstarted.
02:29A little bit also with the UAE as well, really trying to drum up support for Iran and for
02:34better relations between Iran and some of its neighbors in the greater Middle Eastern
02:38region.
02:39I think right now, you're absolutely right, it is a pretty difficult situation for a lot
02:43of these countries.
02:44They have very good relations with the United States.
02:46And if you look at the Gulf countries, of course, a lot of them are now in the Abraham
02:49Accords with Israel as well, and they certainly don't appear to want to jeopardize that either.
02:54At the same time, the Iranians right now, of course, in that really difficult standoff
02:58situation with the Israelis, with the United States, at the same time trying to drum up
03:02that support as well.
03:03I think for a lot of these Gulf nations, for a lot of the nations in the region who are
03:07really essentially trying to stay out of getting involved in that conflict, it's very
03:12difficult for them.
03:13But it does appear as though right now, at least between Saudi and the Iranians, there
03:17is at least a little bit of daylight and some better relations on the horizon, Becky.
03:22Yeah, these are national security issues for these independent countries.
03:27They are sovereign states and they make their decisions accordingly.
03:32But from the perspective of Riyadh, the perspective of Abu Dhabi, where we are here, this sort
03:40of new architecture of a new look, forward-looking Middle East should cascade through the region
03:47if they get it right, this economic integration, this de-escalation.
03:53But this is a really, really tense time.
03:56It has to be said.
03:57It's good to have you there in Tehran.
03:59We've seen the region is very much on edge as it waits for Israel's next move.
04:04And that, our next guest says, is part of its strategy.
04:07Kirsten Fontenrose is a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council and writes, quote,
04:12Israel's response to the missile barrage said it will respond at a time and place of its choosing.
04:18Forces Iran to expend the manpower and resources to sustain a heightened defence posture while
04:24Israel can continue its campaigns against Hezbollah and Hamas.
04:29It's an interesting perspective.
04:30Kirsten joins us now.
04:32It's good to have you.
04:34Really good to have you.
04:35Let's just talk about where we are with regard Israel and Hezbollah as we wait to see what
04:44happens with regard Iran very specifically.
04:48What's your perspective at this point?
04:51I do think I stand by what I wrote about Israel's thinking, hey, if we can make Iran just sort
04:59of keep this defensive posture, we're in a good place because they will focus on their
05:03defences.
05:04They'll focus on moving things underground.
05:05They'll focus on fortifying their radar systems.
05:09And we can focus on the fight with Hezbollah.
05:10We can focus on targeting leadership.
05:12We can focus on pushing fighters back.
05:14We can focus what our next steps are on a single front without having to worry about
05:18fighting on many fronts.
05:19They've taken a page out of Iran's own playbook by saying we'll respond at a time and place
05:23they're choosing.
05:24It's almost a word for word quote of what Iran has said previously about responding
05:28to Israel.
05:29So it lets them kind of be the master of the strategy here instead of being run by the
05:34tyranny of the battlefield.
05:39The Iranian foreign minister, meantime, making the rounds.
05:41We've been discussing that with our colleagues both in Tel Aviv and very specifically in
05:47Tehran today.
05:49What do you make of the of the moves around the region by the Iranian foreign minister?
05:57The very visible pictures of him with, for example, the leader of Saudi Arabia and what
06:04role these Gulf monarchies in this today and going forward?
06:12The Iranian foreign minister has a funny way of playing diplomacy.
06:16It's kind of like a mafia Don.
06:18He comes in with a handshake and kind of a cheesy vest or the like.
06:21And he says to them, if if you allow Israel to use your airspace for any sort of attack
06:28on Iran, we will retaliate by attacking you.
06:32We will take it out on you.
06:33He also threatened that if Iran's oil facilities are struck by Israel and Iran is unable to
06:38export oil, remember that this exporting is sanctions evasion, then Iran will make sure
06:43that Gulf nations are also unable to export oil.
06:47So it's these veiled threats with a handshake and a smile that are kind of Iran's way of
06:52doing foreign policy for Saudi Arabia.
06:54They are the front line.
06:56You're the UAE.
06:57You are the front line.
06:58You're any of the Gulf states.
06:59You are the easiest place for Iran to land a missile, to land a drone quickly without
07:03the 13 hours of early warning that Israel gets when something is launched at them slow
07:07and low.
07:08So the Gulf has to be thinking about, all right, how do we play this?
07:12How do we make sure that this adversary is put in a box, which we would like to see,
07:17but in a way that does not make us less safe?
07:20What do you think Iran has not considered is that by making this threat about strikes
07:24on their oil facilities, they've actually increased the likelihood of an Israeli attack
07:29on their nuclear sites instead of their oil facilities.
07:32So I'm not sure if they really gamed that out, but they've certainly they've certainly
07:36got the attention of the Gulf states who already think that the Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping
07:41are enough of a problem for their oil exports.
07:43They don't need Iran lobbying more missiles at them like they did at Abqaiq in 2019.
07:51Are you surprised by the sort of openness and very visible sort of warm response to
08:02Iran's diplomatic moves around this region?
08:05I'm asking you that almost as a sort of rhetorical question, because, you know, I'm sitting here
08:10in region.
08:11You and I have met here a number of times.
08:12I'm sitting in region.
08:13I'm not surprised.
08:14And I think it's important for our viewers around the world who may have expected, you
08:19know, despite a rapprochement between the Saudis and the Iranians, for things to be
08:24a lot less sort of close looking.
08:27I'm just wondering what the calculus here is.
08:29I mean, Riyadh is a very strong ally of the United States.
08:33What message is being sent sort of via Riyadh at this point?
08:39One message that is worrying if you're in Washington is simply that the Gulf states
08:43have watched Israel effectively brush off U.S. pleas and policy ideas.
08:52Because we're in a lame duck presidency situation, this is not a flaw of a Biden administration
08:56or any administration.
08:57It's simply the reality of the political environment in Washington right now leading up to a U.S.
09:02election.
09:03So they're thinking, well, gosh, if Israel is blowing off the U.S., we can't count on
09:07the U.S. to perhaps contain what Israeli action might be.
09:11We can't count on the U.S. taking action on our behalf because they're self-obsessed right
09:15now.
09:16So we've really got to worry about our own interests.
09:18And that means hedging.
09:20That means if you refuse to accept the foreign minister's visit, you're sending a message.
09:24And that message looks aggressive and that message looks one sided.
09:27So of course they're going to take this meeting.
09:29We have really professional intelligence services in both the UAE and Saudi and other parts
09:34of the Gulf.
09:35So, you know, these visits are also a chance for them to really get a sense of that person
09:39sitting in front of them.
09:40How serious are they?
09:42How significant are these threats?
09:44What do they really mean?
09:46Who else is behind this policy that they're discussing?
09:49What are they really saying?
09:51So it's a chance for them to also get a better picture of what this adversary intends to
09:55do.