CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam has the latest forecast on Hurricane Milton and its potential impact on Florida’s Gulf coast. #CNN #news
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hurricane Milton is closing in on Florida as a catastrophic Category 5
00:04storm. It is poised to be one of the most destructive natural disasters in
00:09Florida's history. Officials just forecast the storm will hit as a
00:13Category 4 along the west coast. Tampa, St. Petersburg, Sarasota, you can see down
00:20to Fort Myers all in the path. Big population centers all extraordinarily
00:25vulnerable to a predicted huge storm surge. The outer bands are now being
00:31felt. Bridges to some barrier islands have already been shut down. Officials
00:35say if you can get out, get out. But that window is closing. Sienna is
00:41stationed along the coast. First, let's get the new forecaster, meteorologist
00:46Derek Van Dam. Derek, tell us what you're seeing. Yeah, john, we are less
00:51than 24 hours away from one of the most powerful top 10 Atlantic Basin
00:57hurricanes to ever form that will impact western and southwestern portions of
01:02florida. This did not weaken overnight and and those are sobering words
01:06because we're only a matter of hours until we experienced tropical storm
01:10force winds in this region. And it's only a matter of hours before we start
01:14to see the water levels start to come up. The latest track from the National
01:17Hurricane Center does show a category four major hurricane making landfall
01:22late tonight into early thursday morning. The exact location of that
01:27most powerful right front quadrant of the hurricane is so important. We know
01:32this is a game of miles, right? One computer model still showing a worst
01:37case scenario for Tampa Bay. But there are other computer models that bring it
01:41to the south. We should expect these types of wobbles with this type of an
01:45intensity of this magnitude. These storms tend to wobble back and forth
01:50and that again determines who will see the worst impacts. One thing's for sure,
01:54the catastrophic winds will not be confined just to the coastline. They
01:58will stretch far inland and notice this updated map. This has extreme
02:03catastrophic winds. That's major hurricane force from Hillsborough
02:06County into Lee County, including Charlotte as well as Sarasota. Now, in
02:10terms of this unsurvivable storm surge again, it is that right front quadrant
02:15that is so critical 10 to 15 ft. You can see that includes Sarasota, the port
02:21Charlotte region. We are watching the satellite depicting every moment in its
02:26track is so critical on whether or not this has a southerly component or a
02:30northerly component and who gets the worst impacts. Flooding rain will be a
02:34concern from this john. We're talking about over 2 to 3 months of rain
02:38falling from the sky through the duration of this storm. It's already
02:41been raining. We've already seen tornadoes spinning up in Miami Dade
02:45County earlier this morning and that will increase through the course of the
02:48day today. I'm gonna leave you with this john. We have a rare risk of
02:53excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding where you see that shading of
02:56pink. Remember, if we've learned anything from Hurricane Helene, it is
03:00these rare high risks that caused the most destruction and also the most
03:04deaths. There is so much to be concerned about so much we have to pay
03:08attention to Derek Van Tam. We're gonna keep coming back to you
03:10throughout the morning to get the very latest forecast because every little
03:15movement, every little wobble impacts millions. Let's get to Randy K. Who's
03:19in Sarasota florida right now, right in the center of this path. Randy, what
03:23are you seeing this morning?
03:26Yeah. Good morning john. It has been raining steadily here this morning. We
03:29know that conditions are expected to get much worse here because we are as
03:32you heard potentially in the bullseye for this storm. We are on South Shore
03:37drive here in Sarasota. You can see there, there's a dock behind me and
03:41some water and that boat, we don't know how long that boat will remain there.
03:45We're also seeing some lightning here in the area as well, but we are
03:49expecting potentially record breaking storm surge of 10 to 15 ft here. They
03:54thought Helene was record breaking at seven ft here. So certainly they are
03:57very concerned. They're also concerned about the winds that are expected to
04:00pick up this afternoon, about 40 MPH and up starting with the tropical
04:05storm force winds this afternoon. We're hearing some thunder in the area as
04:09well. People john have been evacuating here. They know what Helene did. They
04:15see the debris around the neighborhoods. People have emptied out their homes.
04:18One woman told me she spent 15 hours cleaning debris out of her home after
04:22it was basically destroyed by Helene. So there's debris all over the
04:25neighborhoods that can potentially turn into projectiles. There's also people
04:29boarding up their businesses, their homes, the restaurants are closed here.
04:33We spoke to one woman who told me that her husband rode out the storm on
04:36Siesta Key, one of those barrier islands that is now shut down. He was
04:40chest deep in water. He wrote out Helene there and they are still staying to
04:44ride out Hurricane Milton. Here's what she told me now as this hurricane is
04:50barreling down directly on our community. It feels like maybe Helene
04:54was just a rehearsal for what's to come. They're talking possible 15 ft
04:59storm surge. None of us in 100 years have seen anything like this. It is
05:04shocking
05:08and john, they are riding out Hurricane Milton on the ninth floor of a condo
05:12building in downtown Sarasota that is built to withstand a cat five hurricane.
05:16So they hope to be safe john randy, the thunder, the lightning all around you.
05:20Just the beginning of what will be a chaotic day. Please stay safe. Let's
05:24get right to Isabel Rosales who is in Tampa now. Tampa. I know bracing for
05:29the worst case scenario. We can see the rain falling on you
05:36john. Good morning. Right. We're starting to feel those outer bands.
05:38The rain is starting to pick up in moments. There's a little bit of a gust,
05:42but we know these conditions are only going to get worse right now. We're in
05:46front of Tampa General Hospital. We're keeping an eye on the Hillsborough Bay.
05:49We know that from Helene, the storm surge got so bad here that the waters
05:55actually touched and got several ft high up to the walls of Tampa General
05:59Hospital, the region's only level one trauma center with with Milton. We're
06:04looking at worst case scenario, double that storm surge. So 10 ft on up. So
06:09this is a precarious situation. We're keeping our eyes on. And of course you
06:13have florida officials telling folks that if you haven't already, please
06:16evacuate or seek shelter. We heard from Sheriff Chad Chronister of
06:21Hillsborough County saying that this is the 11th hour. Please get out. This is
06:25your shortening window of time to leave the area. Another matter of concern
06:30here is once these winds reach about 40 MPH, this is a community of bridges.
06:35You're going to start seeing the Sunshine Skyway, the Howard Franklin,
06:38the corny Campbell Causeway, these bridges beginning to shut down. Also
06:42first responders not as willing to go out for their personal safety over
06:46in Treasure Island in Pinellas County, one of the one of the barrier islands
06:50residents heard this. Listen,
06:54a local emergency currently exists. Quickly secure your home or business
06:59and safely evacuate the area. Listen to local media and authorities for
07:03additional information.
07:06And one of the major concerns has been debris. All of this debris piling up
07:12here from from Helene still out in the streets. Those could become flying
07:16projectiles. Very serious and very dangerous. John, very dangerous indeed.
07:20Isabel Salas in Tampa again. Please stay safe. This is just the beginning
07:24of what will be perhaps a catastrophic 24 hours. Joining us now with the
07:29latest on this major storm is Michael Brennan. He's the director of the
07:32National Hurricane Center. Michael, good morning to you. What are you most
07:36concerned about? And what is the latest from your end of this? Well, you know,
07:40Milton remains a extremely powerful, very dangerous hurricane this morning,
07:44Category five, and it's gonna be reaching the west coast of Florida now
07:47within the next 24 hours. You know, late tonight, the early morning hours of
07:51Thursday. So folks along the west central coast of Florida, particularly
07:55in the storm surge evacuation zones from north of Tampa all the way down to
07:59Naples, you've got your last few hours to get out before water start to rise.
08:04Tropical storm force winds begin. Your evacuation routes could be cut off. And
08:08again, you know, you don't have to drive hundreds of miles to get to a
08:11safe place, maybe just tens of miles to get to a shelter outside of that surge
08:15zone.
08:17How does this hurricane compare to others that you've seen? Because the
08:21language many officials are using is quite frankly, borders on apocalyptic.
08:26Well, you know, every hurricane is unique and has its own unique mix of
08:29hazards. But for this portion of the florida west coast, this is a track and
08:34a threat we have not seen in anyone's living memory in terms of a track
08:38basically perpendicular to the coast. It's going to allow the winds of
08:41Milton to push in a destructive way that gulf of Mexico water up onto
08:45normally dry land. And that's why we're so concerned about the storm surge
08:49getting, you know, 10 to 15 ft above ground level. The potential for that is
08:53certainly there in Pinellas County, Hillsborough County, Manatee down to
08:57Sarasota and substantial storm surge risk even farther south down to places
09:01like Cape Coral, Fort Myers and even Naples because the size of Milton's
09:05wind field is going to basically grow almost double in size between now and
09:09just prior to landfall.
09:11Briefly, Michael, what, what portion of this severity of this is due to the
09:18changing climate to human caused climate change? Yeah, it's hard to know
09:22on an individual case, but you know, certainly warm, very warm gulf of Mexico
09:27waters or what fuel, you know, the intensity of this storm and those
09:30waters are warmer than normal. On a broader scale, we're seeing sea level
09:34rise occurring, which is worsening the threat from storm surge across the
09:37board. And also heavy rainfall threats are increasing because warmer air
09:41holds more moisture. And that's something we haven't touched on here
09:44yet with Milton. But some places are going to see up to 18 inches of rain
09:47producing life threatening, catastrophic flash flooding potential
09:51across much of the central florida peninsula. And that potential will be
09:54there beginning tonight, today through tonight and into thursday. All right,
09:58Michael Brennan for us this morning, Michael, thanks very much for the work
10:01that you do every day and particularly today. Of course, we appreciate you.
10:04Thanks.