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00:00I don't think the general public in Europe, the UK, in North America really fully understands
00:12the calamity of the situation that we are all in, not only with the people of the Middle
00:18East, but really globally.
00:21What is unfolding and what now incredibly seems likely to unfold is going to be catastrophic,
00:30not only for the combatants themselves, the Israelis, the Iranians, Lebanese, the different
00:37actors in Palestine, Gaza, Hamas, et cetera, but also will undoubtedly have global ramifications
00:46and quite negatively so.
00:48And let's also remember that this incredible escalation in the Middle East comes amid the
00:56Russian-Ukrainian open war, which is becoming even more devastating and dangerous by the
01:04day.
01:05You have what's shaping up to be a cocktail of really just vastly explosive conflicts
01:13that are inarguably getting out of hand, although they really were getting out of hand for quite
01:19some time.
01:21Where we're at right now with last night's Iranian strike on the Israelis, as news filters
01:30out, one needs to be cautious because there's heavy Israeli military censorship of the information,
01:36and the Biden administration has a distinct interest to play down the actual impact of
01:41the attacks.
01:42But what now seems likely is that the Iranian ballistic missile attack was fundamentally
01:50different from the one in April.
01:53It was much more targeted, much more effective in striking the apparently intended target
02:01areas.
02:02But most importantly, what we seem more and more sure about is that Israeli air defenses
02:09were largely evaded, if not in the majority, by the Iranian missiles.
02:15What also seems apparent is that unlike in April, where numerous nations, including many
02:20Arab nations, participated in the joint defense, it seems as if it was a much more limited
02:26set of actors last night.
02:28The main takeaway, however, is that the Israeli government now both has its Qaziz Bel-Ai to
02:37widely attack directly in Iran, including leadership targets, military targets, and
02:42one suspects energy infrastructure targets, to that this Israeli government is undoubtedly
02:49propelled by what one suspects is a real shock and fear amongst Israelis who have not seen
02:59their air defenses penetrated to this extent.
03:03I would almost go as far to say that the shock over the October 7th penetrations, which
03:09were these land attacks by Hamas and others into Israel, which of course sent shockwaves
03:16throughout Israel, that this success of the ballistic missile attack last night getting
03:22through the Israeli Iron Dome and other systems, I think that that will have, if not as much
03:29of an effect, certainly a very strong effect like post-October 7th, which fundamentally
03:36radicalizes the Israeli body politic, the general popular sentiment in favor of a very
03:44strong, direct, sweeping attack on their perceived enemies.
03:49And that's where I think we're at today.
03:52It seems increasingly likely that the Israelis will strike in a very hard manner, widely
03:58within Iran.
04:00It seems quite possible that they are now arguing and trying to convince the Biden administration
04:06to join a coordinated attack.
04:09Why?
04:10Because the Israeli military and air force is unable, according to most public accounts,
04:16unable to conduct a sort of wide strike that would be necessary to make an even plausible
04:22case that Iran's future projection of military power, ballistic missiles, could be decimated
04:29or taken off the board, if you will.
04:32Let's also remember that if they are not able in a coordinated attack to take off the Iranian
04:38missile threat in a substantial way, the Iranians have now very clearly messaged that Israeli
04:45allies in the region, and that's specifically directed to the UAE and Bahrain, one thinks,
04:50that their energy assets and other infrastructure will be within the Iranian missile targeting
04:56sites.
04:57That leaves open the imminent possibility that should energy platforms be targeted and
05:04struck on all sides, or even on the Iranian side, we are in for extreme market disruptions
05:10in the energy sector that will have enormous short, medium, and long-term ramifications
05:15for Europe, for the UK, for the U.S., and will have destabilizing impacts in a number
05:22of different domains as well, follow-on, knock-on effects from that.
05:27We can also say that if the Israelis realize what Prime Minister Netanyahu has telegraphed
05:32recently, that they believe regime change in Iran is in the offing, the collapse of
05:39the Iranian state, if it even comes to that, will actually also bring an enormous added
05:45layer of instability, of violence, and of also state breakdown beyond Iran as flows
05:55of people start to try to move out of Iran, as the Iranians try to use their conventional
06:01capabilities or otherwise to respond as best they can, even without adequate missile capabilities,
06:09all of these scenarios look very bad, and they look bad far beyond the contours of the
06:16immediate actors involved.
06:19We are in the beginning stages of a major regional war, one that has been long war-gamed,
06:28by some quarters predicted. It was by no means inevitable, but this is where we are at right
06:35now, and I think that this will, or we are upon perhaps one of the most momentous history-changing
06:43periods in the coming days and weeks than we have seen certainly since the 9-11 attacks,
06:51but I would argue perhaps for many decades. We are at one of the most dangerous points
06:56too in the modern era since the end of World War II.
07:01Unfortunately, it seems as if the Biden administration, which is the only power able to restrain the
07:08Israelis in their response to last night's attacks, which did not apparently directly
07:14kill any civilians or hurt civilian infrastructure, and may have resulted only in light damage
07:20to the military sites that were successfully targeted, but either way, the Biden administration
07:26is the only power that can restrain the Israelis, and I think unfortunately, given that that's
07:33the only course of action to try to avert this awful series of escalations and spiraling
07:40conflict that I described earlier, unfortunately, it remains unlikely that the Biden administration
07:46will actually restrain the Israelis. I think it's much more likely that they join in a
07:51coordinated, quote-unquote, preemptive wide attack to try to substantially knock out Iran's
07:58projection of power beyond its borders through its missiles. The reasons for this is twofold.
08:04One is President Biden has made a personal commitment since one year to a no-limits,
08:10effectively a no-limits policy for the Israelis, and he believes this deeply, we think. Second,
08:16the Biden administration and key figures, especially in the White House, have publicly
08:21signed up towards Netanyahu's escalate to de-escalate policy. They are now in a cul-de-sac
08:28where they have to call the Iranian attack from last night, and they are locked into
08:34this policy one way or another, and unfortunately, that's why I think the coming hours perhaps,
08:41but certainly days, will see the initiation of an even worse spiral than we've seen in
08:47the last few days, few weeks, and indeed almost 12 months since Hamas's horrific attack on
08:54October 7th.