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00:00The game of the year in college football week number five on a
00:10Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. It's number two,
00:14Georgia. It's number four, Alabama. Joe, for just the
00:19third time in the regular season since 2015, these two teams
00:24meet up. Of course, a long series history between these two
00:28conference foes in many more meetings than just regular
00:31season affairs in recent memory. In fact, since 2021,
00:36they have met three times as many times since 2021 in
00:40postseason play as they had throughout the regular season
00:44in the last decade. So, let's get to the game on Saturday
00:50because we might be seeing history and in a man that knows
00:53his markets and his handicapping, this must be
00:57noted. The Crimson Tide is currently listed as a two and a
01:00half point home underdog against the Bulldogs. It would
01:05snap a 113 consecutive home streak for Alabama being booked
01:11as at least the favored side in all 113. The last time Alabama
01:18was a home underdog was the very first year that Nick Saban
01:21was the head coach in Tuscaloosa back in November of
01:252007 against LSU. Let me start with the spread, Joe. Will
01:31Alabama end as the home underdog by the time we get to
01:35730 PM Eastern time on Saturday night?
01:40You know, Ben, I can't help but to feel that maybe this
01:45number is a little bit off. I mean, Alabama coming off the
01:50route of Wisconsin in Wisconsin. Georgia, I mean,
01:55squeaked by Kentucky, barely gets by Kentucky. I don't know
02:00if I'm putting a whole lot of stock into either of those
02:03games. To me, Wisconsin's a bad football team and I don't
02:07think, you know, Georgia knew this game was coming up, right?
02:11So, it was a clear look ahead spot. I don't think Georgia
02:13ever thought they were really in danger of losing Kentucky
02:16here. I still think Georgia is the better team. I don't think
02:21it's close and I do think that this number is actually a
02:25little bit, little bit light here. So, to me, Georgia, I
02:29would lay it. I'd take them on the money line. I mean,
02:33Georgia is now on 28 straight SEC games, 16 in a row on the
02:38road. Yeah, no. I'll lay the two and a half. I'll lay the
02:43125 in this one. Georgia wins this game. Georgia has not lost
02:48in the regular season in a very long time. I believe the
02:52win streak is now at forty-one. I will double check that in
02:56just a moment. Let's go back to the start of 2021 for UGA. It
03:00was the resurgence in college football, their first national
03:04championship in more than four decades. From the start of the
03:072021 season, Joe. Georgia as a favorite. Twenty-two, twenty-three
03:12and one against the spread. Alright, not great. They have
03:16been the favorite in virtually every single game including
03:20against Alabama. We'll talk about that in just a moment but
03:23that's often because UGA and non-conference play is not
03:27great at covering numbers. Now, in their SEC opener, now two
03:32weekends ago in Lexington as a three touchdown road favorite,
03:35they only won by a single point which I do believe
03:39influences this line but an SEC play, Joe. Since the start of
03:432021, Georgia is sixteen and thirteen against the spread. If
03:48the Dogs are to win this game by even a field goal, they
03:51cover. Alabama has been an underdog. Only five times in the
03:56last decade of college football since that 2015 game against
04:01Georgia in the regular season. In four of those five times, the
04:05Crimson Tide has been booked as an underdog against these
04:09Georgia Bulldogs. The only other time last year's Rose Bowl
04:13against Michigan in the college football playoff semifinal.
04:16Alabama in those instances is both three and two straight up
04:21and against the spread. Joe, Georgia has lost two football
04:25games. Two. Only two football games since the middle part of
04:29the 2020 college football season and each came to Alabama
04:34in the SEC title game. Two year or three years ago by seventeen
04:38points, forty-one twenty-four but Georgia got the last laugh
04:41in the national championship in a season ago as a six and a
04:45half point favorite losing by three. I agree with you. I know
04:51this is a night game under the lights in Tuscaloosa. I know
04:56they are a road favorite against Alabama. Principal and
05:00president should tell you to just take the points with the
05:03Crimson Tide but I think we often forget just how good
05:07Georgia is and even with a one-point road win in
05:11Lexington, I think Georgia makes a statement on Saturday
05:14night. Yeah, I agree with you. I mean now, granted, this is the
05:20first step of a few ridiculous challenges here for Georgia
05:24because when you gotta go on the road to Kentucky, you got
05:28the win. The only other matters if you're Georgia is win and
05:31continue to move on but when you look at not only do they
05:35have trips here to Alabama this week, they have to go to Texas
05:39and they have to go to Old Miss. So, this is a grueling
05:44schedule for Georgia but none of that is gonna matter if they
05:48lose this game against Alabama. I like that it's early enough
05:51in the season. This will be really the first road test to
05:55Georgia. They don't, I don't bet against Kirby Smart in these
05:58games without Nick Saban. This isn't the Nick Saban era
06:02anymore, guys. It's the Kalen DeBoer era and I have yet to
06:05see it. Uh I'll see it when I believe it but until then,
06:08Kirby Smart is a guy I am not looking to fade in this spot.
06:12And listen, in the first three games of the Kalen DeBoer era,
06:15Alabama also had a bye during week four. They have been
06:18really good. The Crimson Tide two and one against the spread.
06:21The only time they did not cover. They came back to win by
06:24nearly thirty against South Florida but they were a thirty
06:28and a half point favorite. That game of course was just a
06:30one-point game in the fourth quarter. All of that to say
06:34though, Joe, I agree with you. Coaching advantage is with
06:38Kirby Smart. Now, with that being said, even if Georgia
06:42wins this game as they are slightly expected to, I think
06:46both of these teams, Joe, are in the college football playoff
06:48and the odds would agree. Georgia remains the favorite in
06:52the SEC ever so slightly not just in front of Alabama by a
06:56dollar and a half but in front of the number one team in the
06:59country. That is Texas. Plus 250 for the Bulldogs to win yet
07:03another conference crown. Minus 550 for UGA to reach the
07:07college football playoff. I bet Alabama's price with a profit
07:12boost right before the year got started at minus 115 up to plus
07:16109 on the FanDuel Sportsbook. That minus 115 price, a virtual
07:22pick'em, has now become minus 350. Even if Alabama loses at
07:28home, the reaction should not be overwhelming. The Crimson
07:32Tide in my estimation are at least a ten-win football team
07:35this year and will be back into the college football playoff
07:38for a second consecutive season. The first, the debut
07:41year under Kalen DeBoer. Yeah, and the the great part about
07:47having that grueling schedule, Ben, is that even if they
07:49weren't to win this game, a win over Texas or Ole Miss down a
07:53stretch on the road, they basically have to get to
07:56Atlanta and if they win the SEC championship game, then they're
08:01the number one seed regardless. That's what Georgia is. That's
08:04how good they are. You don't want to get in front of this. I
08:09think they beat Alabama. Texas and Ole Miss are going to be
08:12totally different animals when they get to that point but
08:16either way, they're going to the SEC championship game.
08:20They're going to represent and they're going to be the
08:21favorite one way or the other. Forty-two game regular season
08:27win streak for Georgia, by the way. That is how good they have
08:32been. Again, there are only two losses since the middle
08:35portion of the 2020 season. If I do the math quickly, 48-51.
08:39Out of 51, they are 49-2 since that middle part of 2020 have
08:45come against Alabama both in the SEC championship game. Keep
08:50an eye on Carson Beck on Saturday night. Jalen Melro has
08:53made history for the Crimson Tide in each of the first three
08:57games this year. Multiple passing touchdowns, multiple
09:00rushing touchdowns. The only quarterback in Bama history that
09:04can say that. It is going to be sensational on Saturday in
09:10Tuscaloosa. These are the kind of games that you yearn for in
09:15college football and I bet you it delivers on Saturday night.