The Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys want to get back on track in NFL Week 3. Peter Klein previews every game on the schedule, offering picks and Fantasy Football analysis for each matchup. Get the latest insights to help you dominate your Fantasy League.
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00:00Yes, it was not the best of times.
00:08It was mainly the worst of times last week for the NFL predictions around these parts.
00:15And so today we are looking at trying to bounce back this week as we did.
00:23You know, I've done accountability episodes.
00:26And so it's important for me to let you know how we did.
00:29We did go 5 and 13, so it wasn't great.
00:33And look, I said not all, I wasn't super stoked on all of those.
00:38But those are still some that we got to, got to improve upon a little bit here.
00:45So let's see if we can get this thing going, get it back to 500.
00:50So for those of you in the chat, will we get to a 500 mark this week?
00:57I think I might be using the predictions thing wrong.
01:01But if I am, sorry.
01:02Either way, let's get into this here.
01:04Denver taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
01:07The Bucs are favored by 6.5 points, and the total is at 40.5.
01:12When Denver has the football, it has looked very bad for them on offense so far this season.
01:17They have had some brutal turnovers, and just been generally ineffective.
01:23I have this, so just before we get too far into it, I don't want to get too stat heavy
01:30because I think I did a little bit last year, but just a quick explainer of some of the
01:33stats that I look at for NFL, and stats that I'm going to be referencing rather regularly
01:39here this year for NFL coverage.
01:42EPA per play, or EPA per drop black, or EPA per run, is expected points average.
01:48And so every time you have the football, there is an expected amount of points that comes
01:52with that, based off of how people in your same position have done over the last a billion
01:57years of football.
01:59And so if you have the ball at the 20, at your own 20 to start a drive, you are expected
02:04to get X amount of points.
02:06If you go out and make a 30 yard play that gets you to midfield, well now, that positioning,
02:11you are expected to get Y amount of points.
02:14And so the difference in those points is your expected points.
02:17They average that out over the game, and see how everyone does.
02:20It's just kind of a bit more of an effectiveness of the offense.
02:23Also, there is success rate that I use.
02:26That one is if you get half of the yards to gain on first and second down, and if you
02:31get all the yards to gain on third, that is a success.
02:35So if you pass the ball for five yards on first down, and it's second and five, look
02:39at that, we have a successful play.
02:40Same thing if you run it.
02:41If you run the ball for two yards on first down, and it's second and eight, that is an
02:46unsuccessful play.
02:48And then the last one that I use is DVOA.
02:50It is just an overall view of a team, and an overall look at how efficient a team is,
03:02both on the offense and on the defensive side of things.
03:06So that's just a quick breakdown, so that's what I'm saying some of these things, now
03:11you know.
03:12So, Denver.
03:13Offense.
03:14Bad.
03:15They are first in EPA per dropback, and 30th in passing success rate.
03:19Which is kind of crazy when you think about it.
03:21When you just need a five yard pass on first down for a play to be deemed successful, and
03:27you are 30th in the NFL in that category.
03:30That is really bad.
03:32Their overall offense has a success rate of 31.5%.
03:37So when just 31% of your plays are being successful, that's a problem.
03:41The running game has been an issue in Denver that people have not really been assuming
03:44so far.
03:45They are 27th in EPA per run, 30th in rushing success rate, so the offense has really quite
03:50stalled.
03:51They're facing a Tampa Bay defense that I do think has some issues, but according to
03:55the stats, it's not great.
04:00I do think a lot of that is based off of week 1 and a shootout with Washington, so we don't
04:06need to get into all of them, because I don't think they really tell the full story.
04:09On the Tampa Bay side, when they have the football, Baker has picked up right where
04:13he left off last year.
04:15This offense is really moving things very effectively and very efficiently.
04:20They are 14th in offensive DVOA right now.
04:23So middle of the pack, but still, being able to move the ball.
04:27Denver's defense has actually done quite well.
04:28I will caution on that, though.
04:30They have played Seattle, and they have played Tennessee.
04:34Now Seattle's offense should be pretty good.
04:36Tennessee, just based on the turnovers that they have, not a great offense to start.
04:41So there is a little bit of… that's why we're not going super numbers heavy this
04:46week or any week.
04:47But there are a few concerns about this team, and maybe the competition they face so far
04:54this year.
04:57In terms of Tampa Bay's offense, again back to them, my concern is that it's pretty
05:01one-dimensional.
05:02Rashad White hasn't been very good so far this year, and if you just know Baker's
05:07just going to be back there just slinging it, eventually teams are going to pick up
05:10on that.
05:11But overall, I have Tampa Bay winning this one.
05:14And I have Tampa Bay covering minus six and a half.
05:18Into the fantasy conversation about these.
05:20I don't know if you can trust anyone on the Denver Broncos.
05:23Knicks is absolutely a no, and probably shouldn't even be owned in leagues right now.
05:28In redraft leagues, anyway.
05:30I wouldn't like to have to rely on their running backs.
05:33We talked about McLaughlin as a waiver-wire ad, that's, you know, not this week.
05:39Wouldn't want to be going with that.
05:40And that also didn't pay off really last week either.
05:43But I do think that he is going to become a bit more part of this offense as it goes
05:46along.
05:47While Javante Williams, I think he is quite talented.
05:50He just hasn't really shown it so far this year.
05:53And so I'm trying to avoid all of those.
05:55They have a couple receivers who have been getting a few targets, but the targets aren't
05:58great.
05:59So right now, it is a wait-and-see at best for the Denver Broncos.
06:04On the Tampa Bay side, Baker probably isn't a great option this week.
06:08I just said that I'm waiting and seeing how good this Denver defense is in a difficult-ish
06:14matchup against Tampa Bay.
06:16So if you have another option, I would probably go that way.
06:19I don't love White again, but given where he was drafted, you probably have to trust
06:26him, and that's a problem.
06:28For the receivers, Evans and Godwin are studs, and you should probably be starting them every
06:35single week.
06:36On to the Houston Texans, taking on the Minnesota Vikings.
06:39The Texans are two-point favorites, with the total sitting at 46.
06:45So let's start with when Houston has the ball.
06:47It was a little concerning how many issues they had moving the ball against Chicago last
06:51week.
06:52And I do think that the Bears' defense is quite good.
06:55And so they are going to give you some problems at times.
06:57I don't like how stalled out things got when you don't have Joe Mixon running for
07:01130 yards, but I do still think there's so much talent on this side, I do think that
07:07it wins out.
07:08Minnesota's defense has been strong to start the season.
07:11They rank second in defensive DVOA, they are fourth in defensive EPA, and fourth in defensive
07:17EPA per dropback.
07:19That being said, they face Daniel Jones in week one, and they face San Francisco without
07:24Christian McCaffery in week two.
07:26I talked about the home field advantage, I do think the defense gets some of that.
07:32But I don't know how actually great this defense is moving forward.
07:39This will be a very interesting test.
07:41And a real kind of like, okay let's see, how real is Minnesota coming out of this game?
07:46And also, how real actually are the Houston Texans?
07:50This is sneakily one of the best games of the week I think.
07:53Or Minnesota, when they have the ball.
07:54The offense has been off to a surprising start this season, and again, they played the Giants
08:00in week one.
08:01But they played the 49ers in week two.
08:03And that's a defense that I kind of trust, and one that is pretty strong.
08:07So I do think that there is a option for this team to actually go out and put up some points
08:15here this week against a Houston defense that looked REALLY good against Chicago.
08:19They did give up some big plays against Indy, and that's where I'm a little bit concerned.
08:22Without that, Sam Darnold is a big play machine, or anything like that.
08:26But I do think that there is some concern here with Sam Darnold, or sorry, with this
08:32Houston offense giving up some of the big plays that they have.
08:35But overall, I do think the defense has looked good.
08:38They rank 4th in DVOA right now, and 8th in defensive EPA per play.
08:43So it is a good defense.
08:46I don't know if they are as good as Chicago made them seem, where you can just blitz one,
08:52and all of a sudden it just, mass chaos ensues, and Chicago doesn't know what the fuck to
08:56do with any of that.
08:58It becomes a bit of a thing.
09:00So we will see how they do there.
09:02But my overall pick is Houston minus two.
09:05I just think they're the more talented team, and I know I could have done that last week,
09:08and Minnesota, them being the home side, gave us some pause in going with San Francisco
09:15in that matchup.
09:16But I do think that this week, Houston, given that they are healthy, are definitely the
09:20way to go.
09:21From a fantasy football standpoint, by the way, if you guys have any fantasy football
09:25questions you want to throw in the chat, I know, to say fantasy football expert would
09:31be a wild overstatement, but I did host a fantasy football radio show out here in Calgary
09:36for three years?
09:37Two years?
09:38A bit of time, anyway.
09:41And so I know-ish what I'm doing here.
09:43So if you have some fantasy football questions, or just need another sounding board for fantasy
09:47football stuff, absolutely let me know in the chat, and I will entirely derail the format
09:52of the show to help your questions out.
09:54From a fantasy standpoint, though, you're starting your Texans this week, right?
09:57Like, I don't think you're sitting Stroud, you're not sitting Collins ever, Dell has
10:02been off to a bit of a slower start, but if he connects on that 50 yard pass against Chicago,
10:05I think we view a lot of things differently, actually.
10:08Both the Texans offense, maybe even Chicago's defense, and a few fantasy options here.
10:13And Diggs.
10:14I do think you can put him in.
10:16The two red zone looks that he got in week one against Indy still kind of weigh in the
10:20mind a little bit.
10:22I would stay away from the running back situation, if you can.
10:26Mixon, we'll see.
10:28And even if he is ready to go, Pierce doesn't seem like he's the guy, so it would be Cam
10:32Akers, who did seem like he lacked a bit of explosiveness last week.
10:37And so I would caution against using him.
10:40If you have to, you have to, but I would try to find a different back for you there.
10:46Up next, it is the game that everyone is calling the Spider-Man meme, as it is the LA Chargers
10:50taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
10:52Steelers are favored by one in this game.
10:55Oh, and as I am saying this, because I have Joe Mixon in a lineup, Joe Mixon has been
11:00downgraded to doubtful.
11:02So certainly seems like it's Cam Akers in that spot.
11:05Hey, I would try to, you know, I would try to not have to use Cam Akers.
11:10Also, I'm just realizing now, I forgot to give you the Minnesota side of things.
11:14I'm not trusting Sam Darnall as an option, unless I have to.
11:18Jefferson, if he's healthy, you play him.
11:20Aaron Jones, probably a guy you should be starting anyway.
11:23Ty Chandler isn't at a point where you have to start him every week, but he is at a point
11:28where it's getting a little bit interesting.
11:29And if you wanted to, like, if you are in a super deep league and you just want to give
11:34it a go, Houston is 23rd in defensive rush success rate, so you can run on them a little
11:40bit.
11:41They also, like, they, it's a little bit skewed, right?
11:44Because they faced Jonathan Taylor in week one, one of the best running backs in the
11:47league.
11:48Now, they faced DeAndre Swift last week, not a whole lot going on there.
11:51And the offensive line isn't a help either.
11:54But I do wonder if Ty Chandler is a sneaky play in some deep, deep, deep, deep, deep,
11:59deep, deep, deep, deep leagues.
12:00On to, again, the Spider-Man meme game.
12:02It is the Chargers taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
12:05The Steelers are favored by a point, and the total is at an absolutely disgusting 36.5.
12:13That is absolutely gross.
12:16When the Chargers have the football, look, neither team is going to want to throw this
12:20one.
12:21The Chargers' run game has been very strong so far this year.
12:22They are 5th in rush EPA, or EPA per rush, sorry.
12:27And Dobbins has been absolutely electric, until it gets to about the 40 yard mark, and
12:31then it starts to slow a little bit, but that's fine.
12:33Who wouldn't, right?
12:35Obviously, this is a very conservative passing attack, so the run game has been utilized
12:41so far.
12:42The one thing I will caution, and at this point, Dobbins, because it's back-to-back
12:47really big weeks, and because the Chargers are still going to be very stubborn about
12:51running the football, I do think you probably still have to start Dobbins in fantasy anyway.
12:55I will say, the Steelers' defense, a little bit better than the Raiders and the Panthers,
13:00who these guys were facing, to start things off.
13:03So, you know, just giving you a heads up that maybe this isn't going to be the bountiful
13:09running day that Dobbins has provided us so far.
13:14Also, on the Pittsburgh defensive side of things, the run defense is quite good.
13:19They faced Atlanta and Denver, both teams who, I would suggest, wanted to be a little
13:24bit run heavy, you know?
13:27Atlanta, it became a little bit predictable because Kirk Cousins couldn't move in that
13:31game, but B. John Robinson is quite good, and so when you have a run defense that is
13:35stepping up in the way that Pittsburgh's was able to, fourth in defensive EPA per rush,
13:41that's pretty impressive when you do that against them.
13:43And then Denver's a team that wants to run, and you would think that you would have a
13:48strong point from Williams, you know?
13:53It's a little bit shaky.
13:54Or not a little bit shaky, sorry, you would think that that would be something they would
13:57want to do, but Pittsburgh was able to lock it down.
14:00And so I do think that it is interesting, this kind of chess match.
14:03The one last part of it is the Chargers have the third lowest early pass down rate in the
14:08NFL.
14:09I do think Pittsburgh has a chance to put the Chargers in some difficult situations
14:13in these games, where if they can shut down that run early, force Herbert into some 3rd
14:19and 8th type of situations, I think Herbert is very talented.
14:22I don't think the same for his receiving core, though.
14:25And when you can have Watt and those guys just ears back and go, it makes it a little
14:31bit interesting.
14:32Also, Herbert's health is certainly something to keep in mind.
14:36I don't think that he is going to be sat or anything like that, though.
14:40Also, shout out to Bunk2zy44, I hope that I was getting that one right, but the latest
14:49follow on here.
14:50Nailed it.
14:51Excellent.
14:53I greatly appreciate that.
14:54And I appreciate the follow.
14:55I believe that gets us to 99 now.
14:58I am very bad at the, like, I feel weird in asking for follows and subs and all of those
15:04sorts of things, but if we could get that to 100, you know, Bunk did half the work there
15:08getting us to 99.
15:10If we could get that number to 100, that would be super duper fantastic, and I would greatly
15:14appreciate it.
15:15But I love having all you guys around here and chatting some football with you.
15:20And again, if you have any questions, let me know.
15:23Bunk, I see the BC Lions logo there.
15:25I know the Lions aren't playing this week, but we do got some CFL talk coming up after
15:29we get through the NFL breakdowns here.
15:34And yes, Deeds, the welcoming committee as well, and also welcome to Deeds in the chat.
15:39I'm going to need to tidy some of this up for the podcast audio.
15:41I've just been throwing it out there, and none of this is going to make any sense to
15:44anyone listening.
15:45But still, it's fun, and I'm having a blast chatting with you guys.
15:48So, let's get on to now when Pittsburgh has the football.
15:51I am surprised to see, statistically, some of the struggles this run game has had so
15:56far this year.
15:57They are 30th in EPA per rush, they are 29th in rushing success rate.
16:02They are running it a lot, they're just not running it successfully.
16:05And that is a little bit surprising, given how, again, how dedicated they are to just
16:10running the football.
16:11But this is a team right now that is just, they're just not getting it done in any aspect
16:16of offensive football.
16:17They are 29th in rushing success rate, they are 25th in dropback success rate, and 29th
16:24overall.
16:25So, they are working from behind the chains an awful lot, and not putting themselves in
16:29really advantageous situations.
16:32It has been very conservative so far in the passing game.
16:35The Chargers' defense has been fantastic.
16:38Again.
16:39Against the Raiders, and against the Panthers.
16:46How seriously can we take them?
16:48I do think that we can take them kind of seriously.
16:50Also, I would say at least the Raiders' offense is better than Pittsburgh's, right?
16:54Maybe?
16:55Yeah, I would say so.
16:57The pick in this game is Pittsburgh minus one.
17:00It's going to be ugly, and even under 36 and a half feels a little bit tempting, quite
17:03honestly.
17:04But, I think that the health of Herbert is an issue, and I think they are going to understand
17:10that running against the Raiders and the Panthers, a little bit different than running against
17:13the Steelers.
17:15In terms of fantasy, I, like I said before, I think you have to trust Dobbins, just because
17:21he has been so good in the first couple of weeks, and because the opportunities are 100%
17:27going to be there.
17:28So, I think you do have to trust him this week.
17:30I am certainly trying to avoid Justin Herbert as much as I can.
17:33I know in the Vampire League, with Deeds and Toxic here in the chat, I have Herbert right
17:39now, but I have made a move, and I know I also said avoid Sam Darnold, but when you're
17:44building a team entirely off the waiver wire, you gotta do what you gotta do.
17:47And so, Sam Darnold has been a pickup for me, I believe I went Darnold this week, or
17:51I've just given everything away.
17:53But either way, try to avoid Herbert, long story short, in all of that.
17:59He has been dealing with some injuries.
18:00I am also concerned about the pass catchers, then.
18:03I know we gave out Quentin Johnston as a waiver wire add, but again, that was with the caveat
18:09that they are playing Pittsburgh this week, and fantasy points aren't going to be a
18:14bountiful amount.
18:16So, I would hope that you have a better option.
18:19If not, throw him out there and hopefully he finds his way, trips and falls, into the
18:23end zone.
18:24For the Steelers, I think you can go with the running back duo with Najee and with Jalen
18:30Warren.
18:31I do think that the volume is going to be there, and maybe the Chargers' defense is
18:35a touch overrated in the run game.
18:37Pickens should be okay, but that one's falling faster and faster every week.
18:41And in no world should you ever start Justin Fields.
18:43Ever.
18:44Ever.
18:45Ever.
18:46On to Philadelphia against New Orleans, one of the more intriguing matchups of the weekend.
18:49New Orleans, favored by two and a half points, with a total sitting at 49 and a half.
18:54When New Orleans has the football, big things have been happening.
18:57They have made some big changes in terms of motion, in terms of the use of play action,
19:01they feel faster with Shaheed busting down the sidelines, Olave has room, Kamara has
19:07fixed his legs, so that's nice.
19:10There has been a lot going on with this team so far.
19:14I do wonder what it looks like when there is some resistance from the other team.
19:20When they aren't just blowing a team out of the water, or facing a better defense.
19:26Because I do think, like, Carolina week one, woof.
19:30And Dallas week two, I do think as the season goes along, while that was impressive, don't
19:34get me wrong, it's going to look a little bit less impressive.
19:37I do think Philadelphia's defense, while flawed, is going to put up a bit more of a resistance.
19:42And so I am very interested to see how New Orleans is able to move the ball against the
19:47Philadelphia team that has given up some yards to Atlanta and to Green Bay in the first couple
19:54of weeks.
19:55They are 31st in defensive DVOA.
19:58So, it hasn't been the prettiest so far defensively, so there is an opportunity here for New Orleans
20:03maybe to put up some numbers.
20:05But I do, I do still think that this is a little smoke and mirrors-y, and we're going
20:11to look back at, like, week 10, like, oh man, remember when we thought the Saints were going
20:15to win the Super Bowl for a couple of weeks there?
20:16That was wild.
20:17When Philadelphia has the ball, the offenses move the ball really well through the air,
20:20and realistically, they are one drop away from being 2-0.
20:25And everyone, I think, viewing this team quite a bit differently.
20:28And I think, honestly, this team being favored in this game.
20:31New Orleans' defense, though, is legit.
20:33Dennis Allen, I think he sucks as a head coach, although this year is going well.
20:36But I do think that he knows how to coach up a defense.
20:39So this is going to be, I think, a bit, it's going to be a really, really interesting game.
20:44I still have to go with Philadelphia.
20:45I don't think I can change my mind so much over two weeks that I can get to New Orleans
20:50being a team that can beat the Eagles here.
20:54And so, I am going to go, going to take the points, and the Eagles.
20:58Also, we're going to get a player prop in here.
21:00We're going to go Alvin Kamara, over 65 and a half rushing yards.
21:04Philadelphia's defense is 31st in EPA per rush, and 27th in defensive rush success rate.
21:11So they've been able, they've been kind of gashed up a little bit.
21:13Now, that's Josh Jacobs, and it's B. John Robinson, but this is Alvin Kamara.
21:18So I think a good game could be had for Kamara.
21:21In terms of fantasy, the Eagles have given up the 11th most points to fantasy quarterbacks.
21:25I would say you can start Carr and feel good about it.
21:27Kamara is for sure a play, Olave is as well.
21:31I do think Shaheed can come up with a couple of big plays in this game and justify him
21:37being owned.
21:38Taysom Hill, it hasn't really clicked yet, although if you have him you probably have
21:42to start him, because who in their right mind owns two tight ends?
21:46Philadelphia, this is a team you play your studs.
21:49Jalen Hurts, yes.
21:50Barkley, yes.
21:51Smith, yes.
21:52Check on A.J.
21:53Brown's health status.
21:54Obviously, if he's not playing, you know, don't.
21:57But he is someone who I think you can start relatively confidently.
22:01On to Green Bay against Tennessee.
22:02The Titans are favored by two points.
22:05They, of the variety of team that traded Malik Willis away for a 7th round pick.
22:11So they know what they are getting into facing this Green Bay Packers offense here this week.
22:17Tennessee's defense has actually been pretty solid.
22:19They're 9th in DVOA right now.
22:22The defense has played well enough to have this team be 2-0.
22:25It has been a couple of mistakes from Will Leavis week in and week out that have kind
22:30of hurt this team.
22:32And there was the shot on the sideline of the coach being like, hey what the fuck are
22:36you doing?
22:38And that, you know, becomes a bit of an issue.
22:39But I do think defensively you can trust this team.
22:43And also, we know that out in Indianapolis, with Gus Bradley, he just, it's three highs
22:51out.
22:52Right?
22:53We're just, we're going to play our way and we're going to make you, we're going to, no
22:56matter what you do, we can still play our way.
22:58And we're going to dictate to you, well that didn't work against Green Bay.
23:01I do think Tennessee is going to make any adjustment and probably limit things for the
23:06Packers in this game.
23:08So I do have some worries about Green Bay offensively.
23:10So when Tennessee has the ball, Leavis has turned it over in some really difficult spots
23:15and like I said, they would be, they should be 2-0.
23:19And obviously if they won those two games, I think they'd probably be a sizable favorite.
23:23Sorry, in these games.
23:25Tony Pollard has also found his legs so far this season.
23:29He has been a bit of a beast.
23:30And so that has been interesting to see.
23:33It is going up against a pretty good run defense out in Green Bay so far this year.
23:37The pick, though, is the Titans minus two.
23:40I, again, I know we got bit by this last week, but the fact that I only have to win by two
23:46against Malik Willis feels good.
23:50Feels solid.
23:51Feels like a win.
23:52So we're going to go Tennessee minus two.
23:54From a fantasy standpoint, I have trouble trusting the Green Bay weapons aside from
23:58Josh Jacobs.
23:59If you have to, if you have to play any of the receivers, then I guess go for it.
24:06But I have a very difficult time trusting any of those guys right now.
24:10And even honestly, Jacobs I think maybe hits a bit of a wall this week, but you have to
24:13play him.
24:14Based on A, where you drafted him, and B, how well he has played so far this season.
24:19And on the Tennessee side, I do think Pollard over Spears is definitely the move here.
24:26Spears is kind of now a wait and see.
24:29And I actually have it written down here, he is a must sit right now.
24:32It hasn't clicked for him.
24:34And it really has for Pollard.
24:36Ridley is probably the only Tennessee player you can trust.
24:39I think with Hopkins, his next best game is going to be on my bench before I see what
24:43he is really ready to do.
24:45New York Giants taking on the Cleveland Browns.
24:47This game's going to suck.
24:48We don't need to go too far into this one.
24:50The Giants offense has been abysmal, their defense has been worse.
24:55They are 25th in offensive DVOA, 26th in defensive DVOA, which puts them 29th overall.
25:01Taking on the Cleveland Browns, 12th in defensive DVOA, 29th in offense, 27th in defense, overall.
25:08This is, it's just going to be ugly.
25:11It's just going to be so bad.
25:13The Giants are basically bottom 6 in every offensive category I look at.
25:17Cleveland's defense is 12th, and top 10 in a lot of areas.
25:22Sorry, again, 12th overall in DVOA, but top 10 in a lot of interesting areas defensively.
25:27When Cleveland has the ball, the offense has been dreadful.
25:30But so has the Giants defense.
25:32So I don't, honestly, I have no idea.
25:36But looking at this game, Cleveland shouldn't be a touchdown favorite against anyone.
25:42And so, just on principle alone, I am taking Giants minus 6 and a half, and just hoping
25:49to god that Scott Hansen doesn't shift to this game too much during red zone this week
25:54because it's going to be gross.
25:57From a fantasy standpoint, the Giants have allowed the 8th most points to running backs
26:00this year, so I think you can trust Jerome Ford this week.
26:04Other than that, no.
26:05Amari Cooper, it hasn't clicked so far this year.
26:07Judy has actually been okay, so maybe there's something going on there?
26:10Maybe a flex option?
26:12And in deeper leagues, Cooper, you can go to as well.
26:14Neighbors is the only Giant that should even be rostered.
26:17Wandale Robinson in deeper-ish leagues, maybe.
26:20But yeah, no, it's, this game, this game's going to suck.
26:24It's going to be very bad.
26:25And even if it's exciting at the end, like it's turned into this Wild West shootout and
26:29Watson and Jones are just exchanging touchdowns, it's still going to be a bad game.
26:35It's just going to be an exciting game.
26:37There is a difference.
26:38Chicago, taking on the Indianapolis Colts.
26:41Colts favored by a point and a half, the over-under is at 43 and a half.
26:45Chicago's offense has underdelivered so far.
26:47Caleb Williams, it hasn't looked great.
26:51And I heard on a podcast today, they were saying like, if Caleb Williams didn't come
26:56in with the former Heisman pedigree and the number one overall pick pedigree and all of
27:01those things, he'd probably be close to getting benched, honestly, right now.
27:07It didn't look great in either of the first two games.
27:10It looked better in the second game, but that's just because the first game was so abysmal.
27:14They're 31st in DVOA.
27:16They are 30th in EPA per dropback and 29th in dropback success rate.
27:21The Colts haven't really put up great numbers defensively either, although they face the
27:24Texans and the Packers.
27:25Now, they face the Packers, who had Malik Willis, and they, it's concerning how much
27:30trouble they had limiting him.
27:32So I do think there is an opportunity here for Chicago to get right.
27:35Again, as I said, the Indianapolis Colts do not make many adjustments defensively.
27:41They have their game plan, and they make it fit in every game that they play.
27:46And for two years it hasn't worked.
27:48I don't know why they would change that now, um, even though we saw on Sunday night that
27:53if you just hit one more guy, just one more guy into that line, you're gonna blow up everything
27:57they do.
27:58Because this is 1932 in Chicago, it's like, a blitz?
28:03In this economy?
28:04You just, you aren't used to that, apparently.
28:07So I am so fascinated with this side of the ball because of how bad it has looked for
28:11Chicago but how bad I think the Indianapolis Colts are.
28:14When Indy has the ball, the offense is 10th in DVOA, but 23rd in dropback success rate.
28:19So they are putting up some big plays, but when it comes to actually moving the football,
28:25it's just not clicking for them right now.
28:30Chicago's defense has been excellent so far.
28:32They gave Houston some troubles, and that offense is better than the Colts.
28:36And so because of the Chicago defense, I think the Bears get the win here.
28:41Jim Ross would describe this one as bowling shoe ugly, but this is absolutely a game that
28:46I think the Bears defense gets in the win.
28:48I'm going Bears Moneyline on this one as my official pick for this game.
28:53By the way, I should kind of clarify, I don't actually bet on all of these.
28:57I have some picks to click that I still am only going to give podcast-wise, just because
29:03I am slightly unsure on the gambling rules on Twitch.
29:10But I do a pick per game just to kind of force us to make at least one call in this game,
29:14but then I have some picks to click that I will give out podcast-wise as a podcast exclusive.
29:21There we go.
29:22From a fantasy football standpoint, D.J. Moore is basically the only Bear that I am trusting.
29:26Maybe Keenan Allen, but it sounds like he is out in this game, so no.
29:30I'm not trusting the running backs, and lord help you if you have to trust Kayla Williams,
29:34even against a Colts defense that I obviously have very minimal respect for.
29:38For Indianapolis, I would try to find someone else other than Anthony Richardson this week,
29:43just based on how good I think Chicago's defense is going to be.
29:46You probably have to start Pittman, but I'm not trusting any other Colts pass catcher,
29:51and Jonathan Taylor is kind of the only one that you trust on a week-in, week-out basis.
29:55Miami, taking on Seattle.
29:57The Seahawks are favored by 4.5 points with a total at 41.5.
30:03When Miami has the ball, there's obviously some concern right now.
30:05Skylar Thompson is in, Tua Tungvaluwa is out.
30:09I will say, this offense kind of looked bad with Tua, even.
30:14They JUST got past Jacksonville in Week 1, and they just got curb stomped by Buffalo
30:21in Week 2.
30:22So, it's not like you have had this high-powered machine.
30:26Not like Bunktoosie44, who has the BC Lions, and everything was rolling with Vernon Adams,
30:33and then all of a sudden there's an injury, and now then you have Jake Dillagala coming
30:36in for a week, and then you know, Rorik's stuff and all that.
30:39But, um, this isn't that.
30:41This is an offense that was struggling, that has now taken a significant step backwards
30:46in the quarterback position.
30:48Yes, that Nate guy, for um, for BC now.
30:52But, um, this is a significant downgrade.
30:55No matter what you think of Tua, everyone outside of the Skylar Thompson household thinks
31:00that Tua is a better quarterback than Skylar Thompson.
31:02So, this sucks for Miami's offense.
31:05I have some concerns.
31:07Seattle's defense has been excellent so far.
31:10Their defensive stats are very, very good.
31:12Now, they've played Denver and New England.
31:16I do think that this is going to be an improved defense, and this is one of those ones where
31:19confirmation bias can get you, because you see the stats for Seattle.
31:24They are 5th in defensive DVOA, they are 7th in defensive EPA, and 3rd for um, 3rd in defensive
31:32success rate.
31:33And so, I assume, coming into the year, new coach, some young pieces building up on this
31:39defense, this was going to be a good defense.
31:41And so when you see for two weeks those numbers, it's like, okay!
31:45Defense is good.
31:46They played Jacoby Brissett and Bo Nix.
31:49Now, they made them both look like doo-doo, but still, I do have just the slightest bit
31:55of concern about what happens when they have a um, a real offense to face.
32:01Now again, it's Skylar Thompson this week, so we're not exactly going up into the Hall
32:06of Fame level for quarterbacks, but I am interested in this one.
32:11Bunk Toosie's fantasy, or sorry, NFL team, the Seattle Seahawks.
32:15I guess I should have assumed.
32:16We have a very Todd Bertuzzi-themed name, and we are BC Lions fans, so I should have
32:21assumed.
32:22West coast, best coast thing going on with the Seattle Seahawks.
32:26And Bunk says, now, if only the offense can get going.
32:30Uh, yeah.
32:32That has certainly been a bit of a thing.
32:33Seattle, they've been effective-ish?
32:37Like the stats, they are 6th in DVOA, they are, they haven't been able to run the ball
32:42for shit apparently, but they are 9th in EPA per dropback, 28th in EPA per run.
32:49I guess Charbonnet had a bit of a rough go there, with Kenneth Walker banged up.
32:52But they've been able to move the ball, and again, while we are kind of taking a shot
32:56at the Denver and New England offenses, those defenses are pretty good.
33:02New England's quite good.
33:03Although last night didn't really show that, but Denver's, we expect both those defenses
33:06to be pretty good.
33:07And so, I do think that while Bunk here is a little bit worried about Seattle's offense,
33:14I'm…
33:15I'm not.
33:16I think Geno is fine.
33:17DK Metcalf is a beast, I really like Jackson Smith and Jigba, and Tyler Lockett.
33:22I do think this offense is really going to start clicking.
33:25We have a ticket with Seattle to win this division, and I'm not worried about it right
33:31now.
33:32It does seem like a bit of a sucker play here, like, Seattle going up against Skylar Thompson,
33:37it feels like they should be favored by more than 4.5, and so this one kind of feels like
33:41found money, but my pick for this game is Seattle minus 4.5.
33:45On a fantasy standpoint, I think you have to trust your studs with the Dolphins, Achan,
33:49you have to, Tyreek Hill you have to, Waddle you have to, like, you just drafted those
33:53guys in places where you have to trust them.
33:55I wouldn't start Skylar Thompson if I was being held at gunpoint, I would have some
34:01concerns about that.
34:02I do worry about Mostert, if he is healthy, I don't know if I would be starting him
34:07anyway.
34:08Um, hello there, Big Macko, or Mako, apologies if I got that one wrong.
34:13But yeah, either way, I think you are starting your main Dolphins here.
34:16If Mostert is healthy, which I don't think he will be, it sounds like he is doubtful
34:20for this game, but that would be an avoidance for me.
34:23For the Seahawks, I think you can trust the weapons.
34:25If Walker is healthy, I think you put him in.
34:26Charbonnet, I think still, even with Walker in there, gets a little bit of volume.
34:30Obviously, DK Metcalf is a freak of nature, and should be in your fantasy lineups always.
34:36Lockett and JSN, I'm a little worried that it's kind of your turn, my turn, and just
34:41kind of dependent on how defenses try to limit them, but I do think both of them, as this
34:45offense starts to kind of figure out what it is in picking up the pace a little bit
34:49this year, I do think both those guys have some value.
34:52Carolina, against the Vegas Raiders.
34:56The Raiders are my favorite team, just for the new people in the chat, so if you're concerned
35:02about some bias, there is definitely some.
35:06When Carolina has the ball, Annie Dalton is going to be the one under center.
35:09He's at least going to be a little bit more competent, but he is, I feel like we are kind
35:15of overdoing a couple of things.
35:18This isn't just this unbelievable team that shoddy quarterback play has significantly
35:25limited over the last couple of weeks.
35:29This is genuinely one of the worst football teams ever assembled.
35:32And yeah, the quarterback's been dogshit, but so has almost everybody else, and so Andy
35:38Dalton coming in here doesn't fix everything right away.
35:42They are abysmal in every area of the sport, and I'm saying all of this, they're going
35:47to beat the Raiders by 10 now, but they are a really, really bad team.
35:52And so yes, Andy Dalton's going to come in and do his thing, but goddamn, if people are
35:58like, oh wow, look at that.
35:59The line, when they put Dalton in, the line went from Raiders minus 7, which is probably
36:04too high anyway, for reasons we'll explain in a second, to Raiders minus 4.5 here.
36:09And the total, sorry, I think I forgot to give this out, the total's at 40.5.
36:11What do we think Andy Dalton's going to do with this team?
36:14I guess like, complete some passes, but I just, I have some concerns about Andy Dalton
36:20in this offense.
36:21From a Raiders standpoint, defensively, they've been pretty good against the Chargers, who
36:24offensively aren't, and the Ravens, who offensively are.
36:27So it's been alright for the Raiders.
36:30When Vegas has the ball, they were at least able to get it moving against the Baltimore
36:35Ravens.
36:36They got just shut down by the Chargers in Week 1, but Minshew is getting a little bit
36:42more comfortable with just, ah, fuck it, I'll throw it to Devontae Adams.
36:46And he has certainly found something in Brock Bowers.
36:49This team can move the ball a little bit, and I have some faith that they're going to
36:54be able to get that done, because again, Carolina's defense, the drizzling shits.
36:58So my official pick for this game is Raiders minus 4.5.
37:02I also would look at Brock Bowers over 44.5.
37:08From a fantasy standpoint, if you're desperate, Deontay Johnson.
37:12And if you're super desperate, Chupa Hubbard.
37:16That's it.
37:17Only if you're desperate, or if you're playing in, like, a 95 team league.
37:20For the Raiders, Bowers is obviously, like, he is a must-start every week at tight end.
37:24You probably don't have multiple tight ends, so most tight ends on your roster are must-starts
37:28every week.
37:29Adams is a beast, and Myers is fine.
37:31There is no running back that you want on this team.
37:35Alexander Madison's the best running back that they have.
37:38That should concern you.
37:39But yeah.
37:40Big Mako.
37:41We are running with the Raiders here.
37:43This.
37:44Week.
37:45Also, I should let you know that because the Raiders are my favorite team, I do do a team-specific
37:51podcast just for the Vegas Raiders.
37:53Not live, but just on the Couch Potato Diary podcast feed, and also on the Couch Potato
37:58Diary YouTube channel.
38:00It's like 15 minutes every week on those, but I do that for a few of my favorite teams
38:06as their seasons kind of go on.
38:08Baltimore against Dallas.
38:09A marquee matchup of holy shit these teams need to win.
38:12Baltimore is favored by a point, the total is at 48 and a half.
38:18Both of these teams have underperformed, I would say, to start this season.
38:24Let's start when Dallas has the ball.
38:25The offense had a big night against Cleveland, but really struggled against New Orleans.
38:30I think that there was a lot going on in Cleveland, and I think, like, New Orleans
38:37isn't as good as Dallas made them out to be, but I don't think Dallas' offense is as good
38:41as Cleveland made them look.
38:43So I do think that there is, there's going to be a happy medium.
38:48I do think Dallas can move the ball a little bit, but I don't think, honestly, and if you
38:52guys, for those of you who are new, in the preseason previews that we did, I am not on
38:58this Cowboys team at all.
39:00I think that they are severely lacking talent on both sides of the football, and so I, while
39:05I don't think they're going to lose by 20 every week, I think they are certainly more
39:08the team that played New Orleans than the team that played Cleveland.
39:11For Baltimore, this defense has given up a few good games, and so this is a really interesting
39:15matchup with a Cowboys offense that still, it's DAC, it's seedy, they have their guys.
39:22But I don't think very highly of them.
39:24And a Ravens defense that I do think you at least have to take a little bit seriously,
39:31but it was one of the things I said I was worried I was wrong about in the preseason.
39:34Queen leaving to go to Pittsburgh.
39:36I know I keep harping on this, but that is such a huge loss, and I don't know if they've
39:40been able to really figure out how to manage that yet.
39:42They have had some struggles in allowing teams to move the ball on you.
39:48M. Cronsley, I see the fantasy question, I will get to that in just a brief moment.
39:53When Baltimore has the ball, this offense has moved things really, really well.
39:57They just haven't been able to finish drives so far.
40:00Baltimore is 24th in offensive DVOA, but they are 9th in EPA per run.
40:09And so I do think that this is a team that can move the football here.
40:12Dallas' defense has been all over the place.
40:14They are 5th in defensive success rate, they are 30th in defensive rush success rate.
40:21But Alvin Kamara will do that to you.
40:23So they've been able to limit successful passes, but haven't been able to limit successful
40:27runs at all.
40:28You kind of need to do that against Baltimore.
40:30And so again, this is such a j- Baltimore at 0-3 would be a disaster.
40:35Dallas at 1-2, and ESPN is leading first take on Monday with Bill Belichick?
40:44Bill Belichick.
40:45Mike Vrabel?
40:46Bill Belichick.
40:47Right?
40:48Like, that's the conversations that are being had.
40:49So this is a gigantic game.
40:52I think the Ravens are better.
40:54And so I'm going to go with Baltimore minus one.
40:56Also a prop, we're going to go Lamar over 213.5 passing yards.
41:00All right.
41:01M. Cronsley.
41:02I think I'm saying that right.
41:03M. Cronsley in the chat.
41:05PPR, would you start Zach Charbonnet over either James Connor or James Cook or keep those two?
41:13Very interesting question.
41:15You have Connor going up against Detroit, who's actually been pretty good against the
41:18run so far this year.
41:20James Cook with Buffalo.
41:22They are going up against Jacksonville.
41:24I still think, like Charbonnet looked a little bit eh last week.
41:29I know at PPR, so that does make it a little bit more enticing for Charbonnet to start
41:36over Connor and over James Cook.
41:38I do think I would go Connor and Cook still over Charbonnet.
41:42Connor has just looked so good, and that offense has looked really really good.
41:46And he is involved in the passing game, it's not his biggest weapon, but he's involved
41:50in the passing game.
41:51Cook, I think they would like to get him a little bit more involved in the pass, but
41:54he is certainly getting a lot of opportunities running the football.
41:58And so I do think those guys are the way to go.
42:00So I would go Connor and Cooks, and Cooks, sorry, yeah, and Bunk.
42:04To your point, I have Connors in a 16 team keeper league that I am in, and he has been
42:09so much fun to watch so far.
42:11And so Charbonnet, while I do think there is something there, I just have a little bit
42:15of a concern about a lack of productivity last week.
42:18So I will go Connor and Cook.
42:21From a fantasy standpoint, in Baltimore against Dallas, I think you start your studs here.
42:26We're not sitting Lamar Jackson ever, right?
42:29But Derek Henry, I think you can trust him here.
42:31Mark Andrews is back in the circle of trust after being okay last week, and say Flowers
42:35is a go for Baltimore.
42:36On Dallas, Prescott, I do think they're going to be able to move the ball here.
42:42So I will go Prescott.
42:44I do think you can trust Zeke a little bit, and CeeDee Lamb for sure.
42:49And then, like, the tight ends, Ferguson, again.
42:53You probably have to, just because who has two tight ends?
42:55San Francisco, taking on the LA Rams.
42:58The Niners are favored by 7 points, the total is at 43 and a half.
43:01An interesting development, as it sounds like George Kittle is going to be out for this
43:04game.
43:05So no CMC, no Diego Samuel, no Kittle.
43:08Does sound like Ayuk is coming into this game.
43:09He is probably going to be sextuple-teamed when he is out there, because who else are
43:15you throwing to?
43:16But this is Kyle Shanahan.
43:19And it's Brock Purdy, who's been playing some decent football to start this season.
43:22So I do think that there is still something going for this team, although the offense
43:27has gotten off to a bit of a slow start.
43:29The Rams, speaking of James Conner, got obliterated last week by the Arizona Cardinals.
43:36And now, I don't think, given the limitations that San Francisco has offensively, that they
43:40are the Arizona Cardinals, which, boy, did we think we'd be saying that three weeks
43:43into the year?
43:44No.
43:45But I do think that this is a team that, um, struggles defensively, we will say.
43:51And wouldn't you know it, losing Aaron Donald isn't great for the old defensive stats going
43:56forward.
43:57Uh, so be careful for, um, be careful of your trust in the Rams in this spot.
44:03And the L.A. Rams have the ball.
44:06I don't think they're shedding any tears for the issues that San Francisco has.
44:09Uh, this offense is dealing with some issues as well with Puka Nakua, and uh, with Cooper
44:15Kupp, and so Kyron Williams is basically the only guy you trust on this offense.
44:20San Francisco's defense, underlying numbers don't look amazing, but the talent is certainly
44:25there.
44:26This is going to be, I think, a rock fight of a game.
44:28And so I think it goes under 43 and a half.
44:31From a fantasy standpoint, I do think, um, Mason is the guy in San Francisco, he'll get
44:37some.
44:38Um, Ayuk is going to probably step up.
44:39And I think Jawan Johnson works his way.
44:41He was a waiver wire pickup this week.
44:44I think that's the way you go.
44:45For the Rams, Williams may be the guy, and that's about it.
44:49Anyone else, you're fishing in guys that you're just not comfortable with.
44:52And I would have to think you have some other options.
44:54Uh, Deeds reminding us that Ferguson is listed as questionable.
44:57So yes, watch that status.
44:59This is a two o'clock game, I believe.
45:01So be a little bit careful with that, because you don't want to have to go out and pick
45:04up the San Francisco backup tight end, whoever that may be.
45:09Also, I missed this as we were going along, but we have reached 100 followers.
45:13So I didn't catch the name of who did that, but thank you very much to everyone here who
45:18has given me a follow.
45:20I really do appreciate that.
45:22On to the Arizona Cardinals taking on the Detroit Lions.
45:26The Lions are favored by two and a half points.
45:28The total is at 51 and a half.
45:31When Arizona has the ball, big things happen.
45:34They are third in EPA per play, and third in EPA per dropback.
45:38Harrison getting rolling is really, really good.
45:40Kyler looks amazing, and looks like the guy who we believed in when we had a Arizona to
45:48make the playoffs ticket from the beginning of the year.
45:51Detroit had some issues with the Rams offense back in their week one game, and that's looking
45:57a little bit more concerning.
45:58Even when Cooper Cup was healthy, that offense just got whooped on by Arizona defensively.
46:03And so that makes you just kind of...furrow the brow a little bit at what's going on in
46:09Detroit.
46:10I thought that this was going to be a defense that was improved, and...I mean, they got
46:16after Baker Mayfield.
46:17They still lose, giving up 20 points.
46:19But the five sacks by Hutchinson, he is just an absolute beast.
46:23So it's going to be an interesting test for the offensive line out in Arizona.
46:27When Detroit has the ball, the passing game hasn't been as effective so far this season.
46:31Detroit is 18th in offensive DVOA.
46:34They are 25th in EPA per dropback.
46:37Goff has kind of looked like old Goff again, and that has been a concern for this team.
46:42And I do think that a little bit of it is you have this new shiny toy in Jamison Williams,
46:46who on our preview shows we were big upping all preseason.
46:51I don't know if Goff knows how to use it.
46:54They have not used Sam Laporta effectively at all so far this year.
46:58Amon Ross-Ainbrown, who is still the best player on this team, is what was overly limited
47:03in week 1, and then they kind of got him back going in week 2, but that kind of took away
47:05from Williams.
47:06So I think he is just figuring out how to distribute everything.
47:10But he's not...he's not great at that.
47:13So I do worry that this offense is going to take a little bit of time to click, much like
47:16the defense has taken some time.
47:19The Cardinals, they are not a good defense, but they are an improved defense.
47:23And they gave the Rams a bit of a trouble last week, although again, the injury issues
47:26are what they are with the Rams.
47:28But this is, I think, it's not a good defense in Arizona.
47:32And so this could be a get-right spot here for Detroit's offense.
47:35But overall, I like Arizona in this spot.
47:37I'll take Arizona plus 2.5.
47:39I think Kyler goes out and gets it done, and we have a lot of conversations about how seriously
47:44we need to take the Arizona Cardinals.
47:47Also, Jameer Gibbs, over 49.5 yards on the ground.
47:51Arizona's run defense right now is 32nd...sorry, is 25th in run success rate.
47:57So it hasn't been great to start the year.
48:00We'll be waiting all day for Sunday night.
48:02Oh no, I didn't do the fantasy part, sorry.
48:05Such a big build-up in everything.
48:07I do think from a fantasy standpoint, you're starting almost everyone in this game, right?
48:13We just said Conor over Charbonnet for the Lions.
48:17Goff has struggled, but this is a really, really interesting matchup against Arizona.
48:22Montgomery and Gibbs, we just talked about Arizona's struggles against the run, Williams
48:26because he is a big play threat, Amaral St. Brown because he is good, and Laporta because
48:30you drafted him in the second round.
48:32So those are the guys.
48:33Again, watch for injuries and all that, but those are the guys.
48:35For the Cardinals, it's Kyler for sure.
48:38He this week is a must start.
48:40Conor is a start even though the Lions have allowed the second fewest points to running
48:44backs so far this year.
48:46I do think that the electricity of this offense is going to get him going a little bit there,
48:52and like Harrison and McBride are no-brainers.
48:54And even for deeper leagues, Michael Wilson is kind of the play.
48:58He hasn't got the boatload of the targets yet, but he's been out there for a lot of
49:01plays and I think that starts to kind of click.
49:03Alright, now.
49:04Sunday night football.
49:05It'll be Kansas City taking on the Atlanta Falcons.
49:07The Chiefs, favored by three.
49:08The total is at 46 and a half.
49:10Kansas City's offense had some issues, as Cincinnati's defense is generally one to
49:19do.
49:20They give them some problems, sometimes.
49:23And I'm not super sure I'm high on Cincinnati's defense, so I have some concerns about that.
49:28It was a bit more like last year, where just moving the ball was kind of hard for them
49:32to do.
49:33Hopefully that was just a blip, because they look really good against Baltimore in week
49:36one.
49:37I'll be interested to see how they do with Nopacheco.
49:39Atlanta's defense has been kind of middle of the road, 17th in defense of DVOA.
49:43They did face Pittsburgh, who was bland, and Philadelphia, without Brown.
49:47I do think it's a good defense, but I don't know if they've really proven it just yet.
49:51When Atlanta has the ball, they moved the ball well late last week against Philadelphia,
49:56and Cousins looked better.
49:59They are 8th in DVOA and 7th in dropback success rate, and are still getting things figured
50:05out.
50:06Kansas City's defense.
50:07They've given up big yards to tight ends, and so the thought would be, Pitts is the
50:10guy.
50:11I do…
50:12I am interested in how they play this.
50:13Because I kind of feel like, in week one, Likely, and in week two, Gasicki, it was more
50:19what Kansas City was taking away than necessarily a vulnerability against the tight end.
50:24In week one, they doubled Marc Andrews basically any time he set foot on the field, and left
50:28it so it's like, yeah, okay, if you're going to beat us with Likely, you're going
50:31to beat us with Likely, fine.
50:32In week two, they had McDuffie on Jamar Chase, and really did a good job in limiting him,
50:37and it's like, okay, if you're going to go to Gasicki, go to Gasicki, fine.
50:41Pitts is a bit of a different weapon than Gasicki and Likely, and so I do wonder how
50:47much of that coverage goes there, and what they are able to do.
50:50And so I think defensively, we might see another kind of shadow game here for McDuffie, put
50:54him on London, have a little bit more focus then in kind of maybe a double team type of
50:59situation on Kyle Pitts, and try to make the rest of them beat you.
51:03That kind of feels like the game plan.
51:04So I don't know, on the surface, like Pitts may still have a good game, but on the surface
51:08it looks like, oh, Kansas City's dog shit against the tight end.
51:12But in thinking about it a little bit more this week, and listening to some podcasts,
51:16and those different things, it's like, well maybe this was more the strategy than just,
51:19oh we're dog shit against tight end.
51:22And so that being said, I do wonder if there is a Mooney game in here.
51:26I do think Kansas City wins, and I do think they cover.
51:30Two close wins against teams who know them well might be skewing things a little bit,
51:34so I think Kansas City covers.
51:35Also, we'll be going with Mooney, over 34.5 run yards, and London, under 61.5 in the receiving
51:43yards.
51:44Shoutout to Sakuragi himself.
51:50The following is a Twitch livestream presentation of HBO Sports Network of Champions.
51:54There is some boxing talk coming up.
51:57Watching the Canelo fight the other day, I know I'm tangent now, they are here after
52:01watching some throwback fights.
52:04Watching the Canelo fight, and seeing one of the shots where he's celebrating, and there's
52:07the HBO thing, up in the thing, it's like, man, I miss HBO Boxing.
52:12You know, like, Boxing After Dark, where you get some of those things, the big pay-per-view
52:16events, and then a week later, it's on free TV, and that's so much fun.
52:20I miss HBO Boxing, and I'll get into some of that more a little bit as we get into the
52:26boxing stuff.
52:27As far as fantasy football goes, for the Kansas City Chiefs, you gonna set my homes?
52:33No.
52:34Of course not.
52:35I do think you have to give Worthy another shot, along with Rice and Kelsey.
52:40I'd rather go with P. Ryan in the running back room, and just kind of see what steel
52:45is.
52:46Just kind of a wait-and-see.
52:47But, I would rather not have to start P. Ryan at all, quite frankly.
52:51On the Atlanta side, Cousins should do okay against Kansas City's defense, 23rd in defensive
52:56EPA per play, and 22nd in DVOA.
52:59Robinson has been, um, 82% or has had, sorry, 82% of the running back snaps for the Falcons
53:07this year.
53:08He is a must-start every week, and if we were redrafting today, he'd probably be the number
53:12one player in fantasy.
53:14I do think you have to start London, even if I do think it's going to be an off-game.
53:17You also have to start Pitts, because again, do we have two tight ends?
53:20And also, I do think Mooney has a play, because he has a good game.
53:23Deeds, letting us know that, just an update, Ferguson has just had his status move to healthy,
53:29so he is good to go for this one.
53:31Monday Night Football, the first of two.
53:33It is Jacksonville taking on Buffalo.
53:35The Bills, favored by 5.5% of the total at 45.5%.
53:39Jacksonville has struggled.
53:41But, they're a couple plays away from being 2-0.
53:44If ETN doesn't fumble going into the endzone against Miami, and if there is, um, if they
53:50don't have some of the issues they have against Cleveland, then they're 2-0.
53:54Now Cleveland's defense is good, everyone's going to have issues with them.
53:57But, they at least should be 1-1.
53:59Aside from Thomas though, they don't really have big playmakers this year.
54:02The run game has struggled, although Miami and Cleveland are defenses we expect to be
54:06relatively good against those.
54:09Buffalo's defense had some struggles against Arizona, but like, who hasn't.
54:13They regrouped against Miami, and just absolutely annihilated them.
54:16But overall, I do think they can be beat.
54:18And I do think we're overestimating them a little bit.
54:21Remember, all the talk in the offseason, ah well Milano's hurt, this defense can't do
54:24anything, ah well this guy's hurt, they can't, ah there's all these changes.
54:27And then a couple weeks they look good, ah no it's the Buffalo Bills, here they go again.
54:30Like I just, I can't buy into them in that way.
54:33Just yet.
54:34We'll see what they do here this week.
54:35When Buffalo has the ball, Josh Allen has been tremendous.
54:37He is, I think, second or third in potential MVP voting right now.
54:42I do think, um, that there is a, um, I think he's at plus 450 right now, which is interesting
54:52I think.
54:53Um, but, neither here nor there.
54:55Jacksonville has had some good defensive success rate numbers, and so that does make me think
55:00that there could be a little bit of a bounce back here for them, and they may give Buffalo
55:04a few issues.
55:05Jacksonville, plus five and a half, is the play here.
55:08I think this is a gigantic game for them.
55:10They cannot afford to go 0-3, and I think they come back with a big bounce back game.
55:14I don't think they win, but I think they keep this game really, really close.
55:18Um, Toxic and Deeds, for those who are kind of new around here, they are chatting about
55:23the Vampire League that we have.
55:25I see Toxic has made some moves as he's gone out and picked up Jerry Judy, and so I'm the
55:30Vampire in this league, but yeah, we did a Vampire League with some of the Twitch followers
55:35and people in the chat, and yes, the Vampire League, I think I made it have four, if nothing
55:41else to give me a fighting chance against some guys so that I can just, like, race out,
55:45like, okay, well that guy, yeah, let's bring him in, that guy, let's bring him in, um,
55:48but I also didn't anticipate that y'all would get to use those as well, and maybe limit
55:52me in what I am able to do.
55:55Okay, from a fantasy standpoint, I don't know if there's a whole lot to feel great about
55:59with Jacksonville this week.
56:01It's not a Lawrence game, if you can avoid it, um, I do like Thomas, I, I, I, it doesn't
56:06scream must start, but I just think he is talented and would like to have him in my
56:09lineup, and I'm not, I don't know if I really trust any of the other weapons right now.
56:13ETN, based on where he was drafted, you have to start, and god, that is so annoying, because
56:18all last year, I was so out on ETN, and then this year, it's like, you know what?
56:23He showed it to me.
56:24He's good.
56:25He's in the circle of trust now.
56:26And now he's been dogshit for two games.
56:29What the hell, man?
56:31For the Bills, it's obvious, Allen is a go.
56:34Cook is at a 55% snap share in that backfield, and, and so, to, um, M. Cronsley's point,
56:42this is a guy who is getting so many opportunities that I think you just kind of have to roll
56:45with him right now.
56:48No one has really separated themselves in the Y receiver room here just yet.
56:52Shakir has the best target share, Coleman has the best snap share, and the best red
56:57zone target share, but that means he has two red zone targets, and everyone else only
57:01has one.
57:02And you probably have to start, Kincaid.
57:04Um, Sakuragi, I will get to the, again, the HBO stuff, we have boxing coming up here in
57:09just a little bit, but yes, HBO boxing, unbelievable.
57:12And then, uh, 2002 would have been a great time to get into that.
57:16Uh, Washington, taking on Cincinnati, last game on the slate.
57:19Uh, Cincinnati, minus 7 and a half for the total, at 46 and a half.
57:23When Washington has the ball, they've actually been okay.
57:26Like, they are 4th in EPA per play, 5th in success rate, 5th in EPA per dropback, 3rd
57:32in dropback success rate, and 4th in EPA per run.
57:35The issue, they haven't scored at all.
57:40And this is one of those ones.
57:41We talked about it with the Giants last week, um, yes, the Giants only gave up 21 points
57:46to Washington.
57:48That was 7 scoring drives.
57:50And so, I am, A, thinking it's a positive for Washington that you had 7 scoring drives,
57:55but B, a little bit concerned that you needed 7 field goals and couldn't punch it in the
57:59end zone against the less than vaunted defense of the New York, by God, Giants.
58:05So, I…
58:06I don't think I'm taking this offense too too seriously right now.
58:09I do think they'll be able to move the ball a little bit, uh, with Daniels and probably
58:13his legs.
58:14It's just finishing drives, that's an issue.
58:16Cincinnati's defense did well last week, they still looked a little bit shaky, I think
58:20they have a smart group that will be able to kind of limit things here for Daniels.
58:23Uh, when Cincinnati has the ball, it has been, um, not an overly dynamic offense.
58:29They are 21st right now in offensive DVOA, the running metrics look good, uh, Moss himself
58:35hasn't looked all that good, like just tape-wise, but the stats are looking alright for this
58:41group right now, um, and the Commanders have one of the worst defenses the sport has ever
58:45seen.
58:46So, I do think Cincinnati gets this done, I would like to think that the Commanders
58:49offense might be able to get this thing going, but that defense is just so bad that I think
58:54you have to go with Cincinnati here.
58:56Uh, Daniels, he could be a weapon this week when we transition into the fantasy talk.
59:00Cincinnati has limited fantasy scoring for quarterbacks, um, but they did face Jacoby
59:05Brissette in week one, so how much can you trust that?
59:08Bryan Robinson has a 45% attempt share in this backfield right now for Washington, so
59:14he is, I think, the only other option that I'm looking to start this week.
59:19Even, like, Daniels probably wouldn't be the guy I would want to go with.
59:22For the Bengals, you start Burrow, you start Chase, uh, and you start Moss.
59:25Brown has only had 26% of the snaps in this backfield so far, so it's a late round gamble
59:32that hasn't really paid off yet.
59:34I do think he has looked better, but that's a big gap to bridge.
59:40Um, and Mike Kosicki is an option as the tight end.
59:43So, there you go!
59:45Every game in the NFL broken down.
59:47Uh, that took a while, so thank you guys for, uh, sitting through it with me here.