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00:00We continue our deep dive and our breakdown into the start of
00:06week three of the 2024 NFL season. Thursday night football
00:10at MetLife in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Jets will play
00:14host to the New England Patriots. Two consecutive
00:17divisional duels on the short week Thursday night football
00:20games to kick off 2024. DRS, the Jets, a six and a half
00:24point favorite at home. The total 38 and a hook. How do you
00:28see these numbers as it comes to what the outcome of the game
00:31will be tonight on this Thursday? From a side, I
00:35actually do lean towards the New England Patriots. Now,
00:37granted, it's usually a home team or no team for me on
00:39Thursdays, but sometimes these are a little bit different,
00:41particularly earlier in the season where it's not a long
00:43travel plan like Boston heading down to, you know, MetLife
00:45isn't that long. So, it's not like, oh, three to four-hour
00:48plane flight that you're gonna have to take so you lose
00:50basically a day of working out and getting some stuff in. I do
00:53like the under a little bit better at 38 and a half. Now,
00:56having said that, am I gonna pull up tonight to the show?
00:58I'm like, yeah, I can't wait. I bet the under and the Jets
01:00probably not more from a prop perspective for me, but if
01:02you're asking the opinion, I probably would take the points
01:05with the New England Patriots and also, I would bet the under
01:0838 and a half. Yeah, DRS, I think it's hard to fault that
01:12kind of correlated handicapping strategy and again, we have
01:15seen underdogs have their day the first two weeks of this
01:18year. Underdogs of five points or more, nine and one against
01:22the spread, five outright victories. That includes what
01:25Atlanta did on Monday night. The Patriots part of a group
01:28that has been an underdog of six points or more and in that
01:32group, they are a perfect eight and oh against the spread. New
01:36England won outright as the largest underdog of week number
01:39one in Cincinnati. Underdogs have been covering at a very
01:44high clip to start this season. Will it continue here into week
01:48three on the very first game? As you try to correlate the
01:52numbers though from the handicapping perspective, just
01:54think about it realistically and logistically. If the game
01:58is only going to feature 38 points around that total 38 and
02:02a half or let's just say sub 40 to make it that even number of
02:0640. How can the Jets cover as near a touchdown favorite? Now,
02:10it's under a touchdown. They could win 17 to 10. They could
02:14win 2114. We could stay under that number but you don't
02:18really have a ton to try to cover as a hefty favorite with a
02:22low total and last year, Donnie, you heard Vecchio
02:25mention it in his conversations with Kevin. I think it's a very
02:28fair point to bring up based on where New England is and maybe
02:31even evaluated after two weeks. The Patriots entered this year
02:35with the lowest win total in the National Football League at
02:38only four and a half. They are one oh and one against the
02:41spread so far last year as an underdog twelve times just
02:45four, seven, and one ATS but the way New England is playing
02:49to start this year, Jacoby Brissette's not going to throw
02:51it often. They are going to feed Ramond Stevenson and even
02:55Antonio Gibson on the ground. They are going to try to
02:57shorten games. They're going to establish the run. They're
03:00going to keep keep games closer just because of what the flow
03:03looks like. Yes, and you're right about that. It's a good
03:06point you bring up because sometimes we'll take a look at
03:08two teams that are high flying and what's always the moniker
03:10we use, Ben. No lead is safe. Even if you have fourteen
03:13points, you gotta keep your foot down here and make sure
03:15you put this football game away. Well, in the second half,
03:18if a team is up fourteen to ten, putting the football like
03:20putting the team away just means like handing the football
03:22off and saying like, oh, you only have four minutes to go
03:24eighty yards. There's no way you can do that because you
03:26operate like a snail, which technically New England does.
03:29That's the opportunities that you want to look at tonight
03:31where if you are the Jets, you don't feel the need like let's
03:34just say Ben again, you're up three points, right? Final drive
03:38of the game for you six minutes to go. Your objective, you would
03:40love to score a touchdown but what are you probably going to
03:42do? Let's get to the red zone. Let's play comfortable. If we
03:45score a touchdown, right? If not, let's make sure we get that
03:47field goal and force the New England Patriots to go the
03:49length of the field. So, let's just say it's sixteen to ten
03:52at that point. What are the odds that if you only scored
03:54one touchdown right in that game that with two minutes to
03:56go, you're going to be able to go eighty yards, the length of
03:58the field, which you're going to reset and those wide
04:00receivers. I don't think that's going to happen. So, I just
04:02think from an aggressiveness point. Yes, the Jets want to
04:05score. Of course, they want to score points. They'd love to
04:07score thirty-five points. We have to understand, hey guys, we
04:10can win this game if we just get to twenty points, which
04:13means, you know, New England's probably not going to get shut
04:15out and they'll be in the ball game but the question is going
04:17to be, can you actually get that drive when you need it at
04:20the end of the game? Whether it's to stay from within
04:22double digits from ten to seven points or score a touchdown
04:25late, even if it doesn't mean anything, you have the ability
04:27to move the football. I don't know if New England has the
04:30ability to do that. So, I do think it's going to be a closer
04:32game and the tempo, I just don't think it's going to be
04:35there tonight.