" Aglay 39 Mah IMF Programme Baghair Kisi Rukawat Ke Chalta Raha To. .." Economist Khaqan Najeeb
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00:00But your question, let me answer that by three things.
00:03Number one, going to IMF gives you a soft landing, which it has given you.
00:08The 1A and 1B of this 1A is that Pakistan has completed one extended fund facility or longer term program in its life.
00:18It is of 13-16 and I know this because I was a part of the SCORE team who ran that program.
00:23If Pakistan is able to run this program smoothly in the next 39 months, then there will be macro-stability.
00:32You can also translate that into minor growth, otherwise there will be no macro-stability.
00:37Number two, remember in Pakistan, and this is not Pakistan, I say this in other countries as well,
00:43authorities should build their professionalism in the team which runs the program.
00:49Otherwise, even now, I don't think people are aware of this,
00:54because the first two months of the 100Rs shortfall, there is a tacit agreement with a fund
01:00that new taxes will have to be implemented on the quarterly shortfall.
01:03So I am really hoping that they don't have to do it and this discussion is going on with the fund,
01:08but I think maybe they will have to do it.
01:10And the third thing, if you want to get out of this mess and get separated from the drip of IMF,
01:18then no one has stopped you from cutting the broadening of the tax base,
01:22cutting all the financial expenditure, fixing the energy sector and fixing the growth framework.
01:28Neither the IMF nor the world is stopping you.
01:30You have made it very difficult.
01:32So there is a possibility that we fix all our energy sector issues,
01:39end the transmission line losses, streamline the SCORE, privatize it and solve our issues.
01:48This has been a dream for us for more than 70 years.
01:51When do you think this dream will be fulfilled?
01:53Dr. Ali is a very good friend of mine, but I will not disagree with him.
02:01But I do not agree with his opinion.
02:06The problem is that the stability that has come,
02:09the Pakistani nation and our poor nation have paid a very high cost for it.
02:14The $350 billion that Mr. Omar Ayub is talking about was made from Bloomberg,
02:19which will result in a loss of $14 billion.
02:23So when we worked back on it, my entire economic team, including people from the Ivy League,
02:28and those who review other people's programs, we took that team with us.
02:32When we crunched it, we found out that if I replace those figures in today's environment,
02:39then the value of the dollar is $243.
02:42So we have overpriced the dollar and because of that, my inflation is 9% higher.
02:47Mr. Tola, I am sorry, I am cutting you short.
02:49You have made it so important that I cannot stop.
02:53Because at this time, the dollar is around $280.
02:56So you are saying that it should be around $243.
02:58Will the value of the dollar decrease?
03:00Rs. 235.
03:02And if this stability has come today,
03:04this macro stability is not because of the IMF program.
03:07I was also a part of this program.
03:09I was also a part of the next program.
03:12But the question is,
03:14we had to negotiate in that program.
03:16We had taken 17 concessions in that program.
03:22And we had taken waivers for that program.
03:24In this program,
03:26the negotiations that we were doing,
03:28in which we were involved,
03:30you don't know what the situation was there.
03:32What was the situation, Mr. Tola?
03:34It was a very bad situation.
03:36You were saying that your current account will be deficit.
03:38I had also said that it cannot be more than 3.
03:40And in the end,
03:42you ended at $681 million.
03:44So today,
03:46the reason for your stability
03:48was your homegrown.
03:50It was not the recipe of the IMF.
03:52And secondly,
03:54you gave this form of 9% inflation
03:56as a gift and achieved this stability.
03:58Thirdly, let me tell you that
04:00what we are talking about,
04:02that today the reserve is increasing,
04:04the dollar has increased by $7 billion from the market.
04:06We have not received a loan
04:08in the IMF program.
04:10You can see.
04:12Since we have come to the short program of the IMF,
04:14and since we have come to the short program of the IMF,
04:16there has been some roll over.
04:18We have repaid the majority.
04:20So this is not something
04:22that we have given to the community.
04:24But I am sorry to say,
04:26I only had one point.
04:28If $16.5 billion,
04:30if my friends,
04:32which is done by Saudi Arabia,
04:34UAE and China,
04:36had given me without the IMF program,
04:38then I could have run a much better economy
04:40than the IMF program.
04:42And I did not need any IMF.
04:44And I saved my community
04:46from inflation by at least 9-10%.
04:48I will take this point back to Dr.
04:50But just tell me this much,
04:52when is the dollar coming to $235?
04:54You give it to me,
04:56I will run it and give it to you.
04:58$235 will come.
05:00Mr. Accountant,
05:02you are on the side.
05:04I am not talking about any personality.
05:06I am not talking about any personality.
05:08I am saying that you are not being given.
05:10No, I don't want a position.
05:12Let us run it.
05:14Mr. Khakar will get it done with me.
05:16But the problem is that
05:18they tell us what will happen to exports.
05:20Exports run at 70-30.
05:22Give them $13 per rupee.
05:24What will happen to remittance?
05:26Give them $15 per rupee.
05:28Save Rs. 1000 and give Rs. 1000.
05:30You will not have any problem.
05:32Doctor,
05:34do you also see such a positive outlook?
05:36Because if it is so,
05:38then it will be easy for the government.
05:40There will be a breathing space
05:42to cater for political instability,
05:44economic instability.
05:46If people get three meals a day,
05:48then the situation will be
05:50politically calmed down.
05:52Anika, you have got
05:54room and space.
05:56The liquidity has improved
05:58due to which you can mop up.
06:00You are right, Mr. Tawla.
06:02You have got room and space.
06:04I will say that if friendly countries
06:06did it without IMF,
06:08they would have done it.
06:10I think it would not have happened.
06:12On international forums,
06:14I have heard the Minister of Treasury
06:16saying that
06:18it is better for Pakistan
06:20if we stay with IMF.
06:22This is my understanding.
06:24If we do not sensibly
06:26use this macro stability,
06:28and if we do not
06:30cut the cost
06:32by correcting the energy
06:34inefficiencies,
06:36if we do not improve
06:38our productivity,
06:40if we do not improve
06:42our export base,
06:44if we do not cut our expenditures,
06:46you have approached the budget
06:48by increasing the current expenditure
06:50by 24%.
06:52Even then I said
06:54that we should not
06:56keep more than Rs. 900 billion.
06:58Now it is Rs. 1100 billion
07:00and it is going to come back.
07:02These mistakes are so initial
07:04that they should be cemented.
07:06Dr. Khakha,
07:08thank you very much.
07:10Thank you very much for joining me in the program.