モーサテ 2024年9月11日
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00:00Fufu
00:30This is a timing satellite.
00:32Nikkei will continue to fall on the 6th.
00:34Can we find a reason for the rebound in the following important events?
00:37Now, let's take a look at the end of the stock market of the New York stock market on the 10th.
00:43Dow fell by half.
00:44It was $4736, which is $92 cheaper.
00:48Nasdaq continued to rise.
00:49It was 17,025, which is 141 points more.
00:53S&P 500 continued to rise.
00:55It was 5495, which is 24 points more.
01:01While the mood was strong the day after the announcement of the inflation chart,
01:06the stock market was in full swing.
01:11In the Dow, JPMorgan Chase, the financial giant,
01:14and Goldman Sachs' CEO showed cautious uninvestment,
01:20and the stock prices fell sharply.
01:22Energy stocks, including the current US, also fell sharply,
01:26and the Dow was in full swing.
01:29On the other hand, some of the high-tech stocks fell sharply,
01:32and Nasdaq fell by almost a plus.
01:35On the day before, Oracle, a major shareholder of IT,
01:39which showed a significant increase in AI demand,
01:41raised the highest price and supported the whole.
01:44The sector fell separately.
01:46While real estate and general consumables rose,
01:50energy and finance fell.
01:53Next, let's look at the exchange rate.
01:55The dollar is now in the 40's of 142 yen.
02:01Vice Chairman Barr of the FRB,
02:04the Federal Reserve Board of Directors,
02:06gave a speech on the 10th,
02:08and made it clear his policy to significantly reduce
02:11the capital restrictions on banks.
02:17In the policy that Vice Chairman Barr showed this time,
02:20he said that the U.S. large-capitalization ratio
02:23for eight major banks should be 9% in total,
02:28and it was significantly reduced from the 16% on average.
02:33In addition, the increase in capital restrictions
02:36for self-funded banks of $1 billion to $2.5 billion
02:41should remain at 3% to 4% in total.
02:46Last year, the FRB said that local banks
02:49had suffered a lot of damage,
02:52and issued a capital restriction on banks.
02:55However, the banking industry criticized
02:58that the burden was too great.
03:01It seems that this policy was taken into account.
03:06Let's continue with the news.
03:09The European Judiciary,
03:11which is the highest court in the EU-European Union,
03:15issued a ruling in support of the decision
03:18of the European Commission to support illegal aid
03:21to the Ireland-based tycoons.
03:24The European Commission ruled against the decision
03:27of the European Commission,
03:29and the general court ruled against the decision.
03:32As a result, Apple will pay the Irish authorities
03:35a fine of up to 130 billion euros,
03:38which is about 2 trillion yen,
03:40in addition to the damages.
03:43Pinto, president of JPMorgan Chase,
03:46the US financial giant,
03:48said at a meeting of the financial industry
03:51that the analyst's expectations
03:53for next year's expenses and net profit
03:55were too optimistic.
03:57According to the Western media,
03:59Mr. Pinto said that taking into account
04:02the prospect of net profit,
04:04the net profit in 2025 is expected to be
04:07about $900 billion,
04:09which is not a defeat.
04:11In response to this,
04:13JPMorgan's stock price fell by 5.2 percent.
04:16Goldman Sachs, which preceded this,
04:18also said that from July to September,
04:21the trading sector will be 10% less
04:24than a year ago,
04:26and the stock price fell by 4.4 percent.
04:33The EU's European Commission
04:35has issued a ruling in support
04:37of the additional tariffs on EVs
04:39such as Tesla,
04:41which are produced in China.
04:43Several media outlets
04:45reported this as a matter of interest,
04:47and it is a correction
04:49based on new information
04:51from various manufacturers.
04:53The additional tariffs on
04:55Tesla EVs in China
04:57were 20.8% to 9%
04:59last month,
05:01but have been reduced
05:03to 7.8% this month.
05:06SouthWest Airways,
05:08an American low-cost airline,
05:10announced on the 10th
05:12that Chairman Kerry
05:14would resign next year.
05:16This is in line with the requirements
05:18of Elliot Management,
05:20an investment fund known
05:22as the owner of the shares
05:24of SouthWest Airways,
05:26and six of the shareholders
05:28will resign in November this year.
05:30As for SouthWest Airways,
05:32in June,
05:34it said it was looking
05:36for improvements to its stock
05:38and replacement managers.
05:43Now we will hear from
05:45Fujimaya from Nomura Group.
05:47Fuji-san, what do you think
05:49about the market on the 10th?
05:51Yes, the reason is that
05:53the demand for OPEC
05:55and growth in the world
05:57has been greatly reduced today,
05:59and it is thought that
06:01it was materialized
06:03in the last three years.
06:05In Germany, the unemployment rate
06:07has increased, and the concern
06:09for the economy has increased,
06:11and the world is now
06:13a little more cautious
06:15about the recession.
06:17As was the case yesterday,
06:19the interest rate has
06:21fallen to the US,
06:23and we can feel
06:25the caution
06:27towards the FOMC
06:29next week.
06:31Recently, the market
06:33seemed to be at risk,
06:35but the stock market
06:37was still down,
06:39and we could not feel
06:41the limit of sentiment.
06:43And in the market,
06:45we are paying attention
06:47to the number of
06:49CPI consumers announced
06:51on the 11th.
06:53In Nomura,
06:55the core CPI,
06:57except for food and energy,
06:59is expected to be
07:01above 0.3%.
07:03This is expected
07:05to be above 0.3%,
07:07and we do not expect
07:09any recession concerns
07:11due to inflation.
07:13We believe that
07:15it is unlikely to affect
07:17the market.
07:19The only thing we are
07:21paying attention to
07:23is how calm
07:25the increase in
07:27the interest rate
07:29is.
07:31In Nomura,
07:33we believe that
07:35the rebound in July
07:37was temporary,
07:39and we are expecting
07:41that it will
07:43plummet
07:45to 0.28%
07:47and 0.29%.
07:49Thank you, Mr. Fujii.
07:51Let's look at
07:53other markets.
07:55The gold market
07:57is down.
07:59It is currently
08:01at 3.642%
08:03and 3.594%
08:05in the second quarter.
08:07The OPEC
08:09has revised its
08:11oil demand forecast
08:13for this year and next year.
08:15New York's oil prices
08:17have fallen significantly.
08:19For the first time in a year
08:21and four months,
08:23the UK, Germany, and France
08:25have all fallen.
08:27Germany is taking a break
08:29for the first time in a month.
08:31The end of the day is
08:33the top of the screen
08:35in Chicago.
08:37That's all for the market.
08:39Here are today's guests.
08:41Mr. Yoshinori Shigemi
08:43of Fidelity Toshin.
08:45Good morning.
08:47Mr. Toshiya Matsunami
08:49of Nisei Asset Management
08:51Good morning.
08:53Mr. Matsunami,
08:55this is a TV discussion
08:57between President Trump
08:59and Vice President Harris.
09:01It starts at 10 a.m.
09:03What do you think?
09:05This is a graph.
09:11This is the average
09:13ratio of the presidential
09:15candidates
09:17by Real Clear Politics.
09:19If you look at this graph,
09:21you can see
09:23Biden's withdrawal
09:25from office.
09:27It's like a
09:29five-week rally.
09:31If you look at
09:33Kamala Harris's election,
09:35you can see that
09:37the game is back to square one.
09:39In that sense,
09:41the results of both candidates
09:43will determine
09:45the course of the game.
09:47The point is that
09:49Kamala Harris is a
09:51woman, immigrant,
09:53non-white, young.
09:55She is a police officer,
09:57and she has a strong
09:59sense of responsibility.
10:01How much she can
10:03give Trump a blow
10:05and get her own points
10:07is what we should focus on.
10:09In terms of Trump,
10:11she has to use
10:13a strategy against Biden
10:15to get her own points.
10:17In other words,
10:19if she attacks
10:21a woman, immigrant,
10:23non-white, young candidate,
10:25she will lose her points.
10:27In terms of policy,
10:29I think the tax system
10:31is the key point.
10:33The Trump campaign
10:35is a reduction
10:37in the tax on
10:39Trump's current tax
10:41and the tax on
10:43Biden's capital gains
10:45from 20% to 18%.
10:47These are the points
10:49we should focus on.
10:51This is the only debate
10:53between Trump and Harris,
10:55so we should pay attention.