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00:00But Alexa will get things started in the Del Mar debutante from the inside with the number
00:07one proud starlet.
00:10She showed some speed in her debut and that's the only race we've seen for her.
00:14Talk a little bit about how you think her chances are in this race.
00:16Yeah, like you said, this is we've only seen her one time.
00:19These are two year olds, so we don't have a lot to go off with any of these horses,
00:23but she did go to the lead and never looked back.
00:25M from U.S. has her with the fastest early pace rating in the race with a 126.
00:31I do think she's going to need to take a big step forward to compete with a big favorite
00:35Noonie who has the same running style.
00:38So that's tough when you have two horses who are really going to want that lead.
00:41Yeah, I think that's a real key to this race too and where they're drawn, right?
00:45Because proud starlet is the one and Noonie, who we'll talk about next, is the number two
00:50proud starlet in her career debut.
00:52She also drew the rail and she had to push through the inside.
00:56So we've seen her do this before, but when you have a lot of speed to the outside, it's
01:01going to be a very tough task for a proud starlet.
01:04As we take a look at Noonie, who is the morning line favorite, and Noonie will try to give
01:09Bob Baffert an 11th Del Mar debutante win.
01:13Yes, he's won this race 10 times.
01:16I believe he's won the Futurity 17 times, which is going to go on Sunday.
01:20Absurd when you just talk about some of those numbers.
01:23Noonie is two for two, Alexa.
01:25She's undefeated.
01:26So she's the horse to beat, no doubt.
01:28But when you just look at the way this field shapes up, you know, proud starlet is quick.
01:33Horses like Vodka with a twist can also show some speed.
01:36Night Beacon is also quick.
01:38Noonie could have some company up front.
01:41She should have some company up front.
01:42I also want to kind of set the stage for who Noonie is here because there are really high
01:46expectations for this horse.
01:47So I buy racehorses, and in my experience, as like kind of a general guide, you'll see
01:52horses go for prices maybe five, 10 times their stud fee.
01:57And Noonie's by win, win, win, who stands for $5,000, and is a freshman sire, meaning
02:02this is the first year any of his progeny is hitting the racetrack.
02:06So he's unproven.
02:08But Noonie, this is why it's so astonishing that Noonie sold for $1.8 million.
02:14So there had to be something so elite.
02:17It's so exceptional about her physical or her work in that sale to bring that kind of
02:22price.
02:23And now she's backed it up with those two great races, which she went to the lead and
02:27never looked back.
02:28So she's definitely going to be the one to beat and has a lot of hopes riding on it.
02:32And when you talk about horses at this point in their career, when they're young two-year-olds,
02:37it's like that teenager that's really precocious.
02:40They're growing up.
02:41Maybe they're like a little ahead of everybody else.
02:43That's where Noonie is right now.
02:44So you're pointing out they saw this ability at the sales with this horse who didn't have
02:50much of a proven pedigree to buy.
02:52So she was just that breathtaking early in the mornings and what they saw at the sales.
02:58So she is a horse who right now just is a little farther along than most of this group.
03:03And we can understand why she's favored in the Del Mar debutante on Saturday.
03:07The number three, So There She Was, was a winner on August the 10th.
03:11And what's a positive about her, Alexa, when I look at some of the young horses, I always
03:15like seeing horses that are proven to come from off the pace a little bit.
03:19Horses that have shown us they can pass.
03:21And that's what we've seen with her.
03:23She showed that she can sit off.
03:24She was sitting about fourth or fifth in her win, and she passed horses.
03:28So I always take that as a big positive.
03:31That is a big positive.
03:32And it's, you know, my one note about her, the best thing going for her here, because
03:35there's going to be such a contentious pace, it's going to benefit her to sit behind the
03:39leaders and make that late advance.
03:42At the same time, she's already lost to a couple that are running in here.
03:46And her speed figures haven't really been improving a whole lot.
03:49So I think this is going to be a really tough spot for So There She Was.
03:52Completely agree.
03:53Yeah, she's just going to have to improve off of what we've seen from her before.
03:56A real intriguing horse in here is Vodka with a twist, the number four, because while she
04:01was defeated by Noonie previously, it was just a field of four.
04:05It was a race where Noonie got the lead.
04:07There wasn't much pressure in there.
04:09Night Beacon was supposed to be one of the other speeds and Night Beacon had a slow start.
04:13So while Vodka with a twist was second, I still thought she ran pretty well against
04:18Noonie.
04:19It'll all come down to the race shape.
04:21Can, you know, Vodka with a twist maybe be a horse that's sitting off.
04:25If someone else can go and do a little bit of the dirty work and soften Noonie up a little
04:28bit, I could see Vodka with a twist maybe sitting behind and picking up some pieces
04:33here.
04:34So I did like that she showed us she can come from off the pace a little bit.
04:37And with the four races, she has a nice foundation.
04:40She's the most experienced runner in the field and that could go a long way with some of
04:44these young horses.
04:45You're right.
04:46Experience means a whole lot in these races.
04:49I'm a little concerned about her in here.
04:52I know the two races she has won, she's gone straight to the lead and wired the field.
04:56So, you know, with Noonie and Proud Starlet being speed horses, I'm concerned that she
05:01does want that early coveted spot.
05:05But also, if you look at her time from U.S. pace figures, which show how fast she was
05:10going at different points throughout the race in the last race, she was speeding up, like
05:14you said, as the race progressed.
05:15So, you know, this race is a little bit longer, so that's a plus for her, in my opinion.
05:20She should be able to sustain that longer run.
05:23I just don't know if she's going to catch Noonie.
05:25And you can see the workouts with some of these horses in the mornings at XBTV.com,
05:30a place where you can check out a lot of these horses training.
05:33This is a horse that they've actually been showing working from off of other rivals a
05:38little bit.
05:39So they're training her to come from off the pace, and they're trying to really make her
05:43a better horse, not necessarily just worry about winning some of these races.
05:47So I think as these races keep getting longer, they're doing a real nice job with her.
05:51Let's move to Night Beacon, who won her career debut.
05:55But then when she was in the Sorrento against Noonie, against Vodka with the twist, she
05:59just wasn't as quick as them early, and she kind of missed her spot.
06:04She didn't really get to run her race that day.
06:05I don't know how good she is, Alexa, but I'm feeling confident that they're going to try
06:10to get her more forward again, and just try really hard to get her closer to the pace
06:13this time.
06:14I think so, too.
06:15I mean, that's what she's shown us so far, that she likes it.
06:18Like you said, she couldn't hang in the Sorrento.
06:21She just didn't handle that race very well.
06:22She looked kind of uncomfortable, looked a bit green, like you said, missed her position.
06:27For me, I need to see more from her before I'm willing to better at this level of competition.
06:32Absolutely agree.
06:33Maybe she can have like a little say in the race, making things difficult for Noonie,
06:36but as far as winning this race, we'll have to see it.
06:39Alexa, I thought the two real interesting closers in here were drawn to the outside.
06:44The first one of them was Tenma, and this is another Bob Baffert trainee.
06:48So Baffert has probably the speed of the speed, and maybe the strongest closer in here with
06:53Tenma.
06:54This is not a horse that he was really expecting to win first time out.
06:57This horse didn't get bet very much, which all Bafferts get bet.
07:01She did not show very much early speed, which all Bafferts show early speed.
07:05So she really does look like a distance type horse.
07:08She came running late.
07:09So seeing her go from five and a half to seven furlongs, I feel like this trip, the way the
07:15race shapes up, everything should fit her very well on Saturday.
07:18I completely agree.
07:19This is Tenma is my top selection in the race.
07:23Like you said, Baffert's won this race 10 times, so he knows what it takes, and he's
07:26put her in here.
07:28You know, she won that race by a neck and had the TimeformUS speed figure of 98, which
07:34is the same figure that Noonie had her first out.
07:36So we could see the same kind of improvement from a Baffert horse in that second start.
07:41And like you said, the pace absolutely sets up for her.
07:43They also spent $850,000 on her, so clearly high expectations that I think she'll be able
07:48to achieve.
07:49Rounding out the field is Jack's Magic Girl.
07:52She was a debut winner, but that was going long on the turf.
07:55So a big positive for her is she actually has a victory going longer than anyone else
07:59in the field.
08:00When we're talking about fitness, she might be a horse that can be passing other horses
08:04late.
08:05Alexa, I just have to see it from her on the dirt while she's been fighting the mornings.
08:09I just, I'm not sure if she's quite proven enough yet against this group.
08:12Yeah, I'm not going to use her in here, but I'm not actually that concerned about this
08:17switch to dirt because her Saiga Magic has better win percentages for his offspring on
08:21the dirt than for turf.
08:23Her trainer also wins 31% of the time when making that shift with an over $2 ROI.
08:27So that doesn't concern me a whole lot.
08:29I just think she's a bit of a wild card.
08:32There's some upside, but since I've been mentioning stud fees and how that's relevant, her Sire
08:38stud fee is $125,000 and she only sold for $100,000.
08:41So I do think there was something pretty undesirable about her to sell for less than that price.