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00:00U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are set to make their first
00:04joint appearance on the campaign trail since she replaced him as the Democratic candidate.
00:09They've chosen the union-heavy city of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania for their rally, which comes
00:14as the U.S. marks the national Labor Day holiday this Monday.
00:17Pennsylvania is also Biden's birth state and is one of a handful of swing states that could
00:22decide the election, which is now just over two months away.
00:26Monty Francis has more.
00:30Kamala Harris spent the Labor Day holiday campaigning in two key states, Michigan and
00:35Pennsylvania.
00:36With just two months to go until Election Day, the Democratic nominee is trying to sway
00:40unions and blue-collar workers.
00:43We celebrate unions because unions helped build America, and unions helped build America's
00:51middle class.
00:53There are at least seven swing states, and for his part, Donald Trump and his running
00:58mate have events planned in Nevada, North Carolina and Arizona this week.
01:03Over the weekend, the former president and Republican nominee held a rally in Pennsylvania
01:07where he lobbed personal attacks against his opponent.
01:11If you look at Kamala and you look at what she's done to every place she's touched has
01:17turned to s**t.
01:20With the campaigns in high gear, they are now in the final stretch to Election Day.
01:25Early voting in some states begins this week on September 6th.
01:30On September 10th, Harris and Trump face off in their first and possibly only televised
01:35debate.
01:36Then on September 18th, attention turns back to Trump's legal issues when he's due in court
01:41to be sentenced in his New York hush money case, in which prison time could be a possibility.
01:47Meanwhile, polls show that for voters in the swing states, the economy remains their number
01:52one concern, but polls also show that the issue of abortion is central to how they will
01:57cast their ballots.
01:59Once we've seen our bodily autonomy go, what comes next?
02:03My biggest fears is where the economy's going.
02:05Interest rates are at an all-time high.
02:07On October 1st, vice presidential nominees Tim Walz and J.D. Vance will face off on the
02:12debate stage, all of this leading up to Election Day on November 5th.
02:18Well, for some analysis on the current state of the race, we can bring in Miranda Yaver,
02:23a political scientist and assistant professor of health policy at the University of Pittsburgh.
02:28Thank you so much for joining us.
02:30Now, Pennsylvania is going to be one of the key states in this election.
02:34On average, polls there do show Harris with a slight lead, though Donald Trump still comes
02:39out on top in some surveys.
02:41Which candidate, being someone in Pennsylvania yourself, which candidate do you see as having
02:46the advantage there?
02:49It's going to be very close, and I think it's safe to say that how Pennsylvania votes is
02:52going to determine the outcome of this election.
02:55As you said on the front end of this segment, this is a very union-heavy state, and this
03:01is the most pro-union ticket the Democrats have run, and it stands in stark contrast
03:06to what we have seen on the Republican side.
03:09So Kamala Harris and Joe Biden are here in Pittsburgh on Labor Day.
03:15We saw at the Democratic Convention broad embrace of unions, and I think this is going
03:19to be really pivotal because workers, the middle class, these are all groups that we
03:26need to succeed in America.
03:30And I think that the Democratic Party's messaging is going to speak to that, but it is going
03:35to be down to the wire, and Pennsylvania's an early voting state.
03:41We'll see what happens.
03:43What I've experienced in both talking with people and actually doing a little bit of
03:51campaigning myself is I've noticed that there has been a lot of receptivity, both to Kamala
03:56Harris and to Tim Walz.
03:58Now, Donald Trump, meanwhile, is having a pretty low-key Labor Day weekend.
04:03What do you think is going to be his main campaign strategy in the coming months?
04:08So I think it's safe to say that the Republican Party is going to lean very heavily on immigration.
04:15One of the things that we're seeing in Pennsylvania and in other parts of the country where there
04:20are these pivotal states and where the polls are close is that the Republicans have started
04:24to run an ad against Kamala Harris about an immigrant who committed a crime and basically
04:33trying to attach that to Kamala Harris's policies.
04:36This is a strategy that we saw in 1988 with a campaign ad about someone named Willie Horton,
04:43led by Leah Atwater.
04:46There isn't a whole lot of support to show that it actually affected the election, but
04:50these are strategies that we're seeing resurfacing.
04:53And it is a message that Republicans and independents tend to be receptive to.
04:59So I think we're going to see a lot of emphasis on crime and immigration.
05:04And that's and it's no surprise that we're starting to see Kamala Harris and the Democratic
05:08Party pivot a little bit to the center on issues of immigration, because at the end
05:13of the day, independents are going to help decide the outcome of this election.
05:19And that means that means being able to speak across party lines.
05:24The Democrats have really been riding on a high since Kamala Harris took over as the
05:28candidate.
05:29How do you expect next week's debate to shift that dynamic, if at all?
05:34Yeah.
05:35So, you know, the political science literature up until, you know, very recently was not
05:42of the necessarily of the opinion that debates are huge movers and shakers in elections.
05:50Obviously, that was not the case on June 27th.
05:53So this is good.
05:54This is going to be a big moment.
05:55Kamala Harris was a very good debater.
05:59She was very good on the Senate Judiciary Committee in interrogating witnesses.
06:04So, you know, the pressure's on on her side.
06:07And then there's just sort of a question of to what extent Trump can be disciplined.
06:13That is not his strong point, to say the least.
06:17He is going to be muted between, you know, when he's being asked questions.
06:22And so I think that that will operate as a constraint on him.
06:25But the reality is that he needs the debate.
06:28Usually you demand more debates when you're losing.
06:31And he eventually started pushing for more and more debates because he is struggling
06:37a bit in the polls.
06:40And so and so, you know, my expectation is that Kamala Harris is going to do quite well.
06:46But this is not an election short of short of surprises.
06:52So so we'll see, you know, one of the other issues that is really important to emphasize
06:56in this election is just the extent to which so many of the issues on the ballot really
07:01do transcend party lines, because this isn't so much an election about policy.
07:06This is really an election about democracy.
07:09And so one thing that I will really be looking for is questions that center on these issues
07:15of democracy, respect for transitions of power and voting rights.
07:21Absolutely could not be higher.
07:23Miranda Yaver, thank you again so much for your analysis today.
07:26That's Miranda Yaver, a political scientist and assistant professor of health policy at
07:30the University of Pittsburgh.
07:32Thanks so much for having me.