How will the election unfold, and what primary challenges await the next President of the United States? Leon Panetta and Susan Glasser join the show. Correspondent Stefano Pozzebon and Venezuelan opposition politician David Smolansky on the Venezuelan elections. Tim Alberta joins on how the Trump campaign is shifting its approach to confront a new Democratic nominee.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello, everyone, and welcome to Amman Porn Company.
00:07Here's what's coming up.
00:09Netanyahu faces the U.S. Congress amid protests and boycotts over his handling of the war
00:15in Gaza, but focus remains on Kamala Harris, now in full campaign mode.
00:21We break it down with journalist Susan Glasser and former CIA director Leon Panetta.
00:28As Venezuela votes this Sunday, could an opposition candidate finally unseat President Maduro?
00:35I discuss what's at stake with former Venezuelan Mayor David Smolensky.
00:40Also ahead.
00:41There's no question that campaigning against Joe Biden is not the same as campaigning against
00:47Kamala Harris.
00:48Will Trump change tactics?
00:50Michelle Martin asks Atlantic writer Tim Alberta about new political strategies after Biden
00:57drops out of the presidential race.
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01:39Seton J. Melvin, the Peter G. Peterson and Joan Gantz Cooney Fund, Charles Rosenblum,
01:46Ku and Patricia Ewen, committed to bridging cultural differences in our communities, Barbara
01:52Hope Zuckerberg, Jeffrey Katz and Beth Rogers, and by contributions to your PBS station from
01:59viewers like you.
02:02Welcome to the program, everyone.
02:04I'm Bianna Golodryga in New York, sitting in for Christiane Amanpour.
02:08All eyes are on Kamala Harris as she faces her first major foreign policy test.
02:13Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington to address Congress amid
02:18protests over his handling of the war in Gaza and as negotiations over a ceasefire
02:22deal loom large.
02:24So will the presumptive Democratic nominee's foreign policy, will it be significantly different
02:29and will it be a departure from President Biden's?
02:32And how will it match up against Donald Trump's expected embrace of Israel?
02:37Netanyahu's visit to Washington has also been overshadowed by the political earthquake.
02:41That is Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race.
02:45The president has now returned to the White House after recovering from COVID to discuss
02:49how his potential successor might handle Netanyahu's visit and what foreign policy in a Harris
02:54presidency might look like.
02:56We have Leon Panetta, former defense secretary and CIA director and White House chief of
03:01staff.
03:02He wore multiple hats.
03:03Also joining us is Susan Glasser, staff writer at The New Yorker and co-author of The Divider,
03:07chronicling Donald Trump's first term.
03:09Welcome both of you.
03:10Susan, let me start with you.
03:13From the little that we've seen of Kamala Harris's foreign policy expertise and views,
03:20what do you think a Harris foreign policy presidency would look like and would it differ
03:25and deviate much from Biden's?
03:28Well, look, Kamala Harris is somewhat untested, certainly relative to Joe Biden when it comes
03:35to foreign policy.
03:36Of course, he had decades of experience.
03:39He was the former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, vice president for eight
03:43years.
03:44So we had a very clear sense, not just of individual policies with Joe Biden, but his
03:50worldview.
03:51He is a committed transatlanticist, for example, deeply ingrained support for NATO, a sense
03:57of working with allies in the world, which has become kind of the foundation of his foreign
04:02policy approach.
04:04It's not clear at all that Harris, who comes up, you know, not out of democratic politics
04:09and policy here in Washington, D.C., but much more as a prosecutor, as an elected attorney
04:14general in California state politics, I think this last four years has been crucial for
04:19her in terms of foreign policy because she's gained so much more experience as Biden's
04:25vice president.
04:26She's traveled repeatedly, for example, to the Munich Security Conference.
04:30She's flown all around the world, spent a lot of time in Asia as well.
04:34So I don't think she's going to mark a radical change from Joe Biden were she to win election.
04:40But I do think it's much less clear that she has that visceral attachment to the kind of
04:46liberal internationalism of the 20th century that shaped Joe Biden.
04:51But again, anyone who's looking for her to make a big break with Biden's foreign policy
04:56during the campaign, I don't think that's a likely thing.
04:59It's much more what approach you take to decisions in the Oval Office.
05:04That is the question mark for me.
05:07Secretary Panetta, you signed an open letter, along with some of the most senior foreign
05:10policy leaders in the U.S., expressing your confidence that Kamala Harris is, quote, the
05:14best qualified person to lead our nation as commander in chief.
05:19What makes you so confident in her leadership?
05:22And let's start with the foreign policy angle first.
05:27Well, I've known Kamala Harris coming back to California for a long time, and she is
05:34a prosecutor.
05:35But more importantly, she's a pragmatist in how she approaches issues.
05:40And she learns well.
05:42And I think she has, in fact, as vice president, been present and worked with President Biden
05:52on developing our foreign policy.
05:55This is a dangerous world.
05:57It's a dangerous world we're living in, between Russia and China, North Korea, Iran, what's
06:03happening in the Middle East.
06:05And there's no question that it demands that the United States play a role as a world leader
06:10in that kind of world, working with our allies.
06:13That really is kind of the fundamental principle that guides United States policy.
06:18And I think Kamala Harris has pretty much understood the importance of the United States
06:25continuing to play that role, if we're going to be able to protect our national security.
06:31So I feel very comfortable with her and her approach to dealing with national security.
06:38The first big issue, obviously, here in Washington, D.C., right now, with the presence of the
06:44prime minister of Israel giving a speech today, and then also meeting with President
06:50Biden, Vice President Harris, which takes on a whole different meaning now, given that
06:54she will likely be the Democratic nominee, and then ending the week with a meeting with
06:59former President Trump in Florida.
07:02Susan, what do you make of the decision by the vice president not to attend today's speech
07:12with the prime minister?
07:13She says that it's a scheduling issue, that she had her schedule to travel long before.
07:18One would imagine she could have changed that.
07:20But I'm just curious, how much weight should one put into that, given the role that we
07:25know she's had in this administration with regards to the war in Gaza?
07:30And that is really focusing, many would say, more so on the plight of the Palestinians
07:36and the humanitarian crisis.
07:38Yeah.
07:40Of course, the issue of how much to support Israel and how critical of Israel to be has
07:45one that's been very divisive for Democrats in this election year.
07:49President Biden has gotten a fair amount of blowback, especially from younger, progressive
07:54Democratic voters.
07:55I think there is a sense among those voters that Harris may be more inclined, to their
08:00point of view, more critical, perhaps, of Israel and certainly of Prime Minister Netanyahu
08:05than President Biden, whose attachment to the country, as we know, goes back to his
08:10oft-repeated story of going to visit Israel in the 1970s, his visit with Golda Meir.
08:16If you've been paying attention at all, you've heard him tell that story this year.
08:21It's not the same for Vice President Harris.
08:24And my own reporting suggests that she definitely has been, on the inside, one of the voices
08:29more critical of Israel, more pushing the administration to focus efforts on humanitarian
08:36relief for Palestinians, for example.
08:38So she's not going to publicly break with Biden, I don't think, on this issue.
08:42But I do think that, politically speaking for her, it's not necessarily advantageous
08:47the very week that she's become the Democratic candidate to be sitting there presiding over
08:53this event with Netanyahu.
08:55Many Democratic voters, regardless of their views on Israel, have really soured on Netanyahu.
09:00I would point out that's true of Israeli voters as well, who are very down on Netanyahu.
09:05So I'm not surprised that she made the decision to skip this and to, you know, she's in the
09:10crucial early days of introducing herself as a presidential candidate and campaigning
09:16as the candidate.
09:17This is really only her second day on the campaign trail doing that.
09:21And I'm not surprised she made that choice.
09:23But I think Democrats have some hope this will be less divisive for them and less hurtful
09:30for them as an issue than it was with President Biden.
09:34And Secretary Panetta, what advice would you give the vice president as she approaches
09:38this meeting with the prime minister and as she campaigns going forward?
09:42Because sadly, this war is likely not expected to end before the election.
09:47Some may say that if there's any signs of distance between the United States and Israel,
09:54that's an opportunity for more discord and disruption in the Middle East and perhaps
09:59more violence from enemies of both countries, both the United States and Israel.
10:05How does she thread that needle by, on the one hand, saying that the support for Israel
10:09remains solid, but also expressing her concerns about some of Prime Minister Netanyahu's policies
10:16and how this war is being conducted?
10:18I have a great deal of confidence in her ability to learn just exactly how she's got to walk
10:28through some tough issues.
10:30This one in particular, I think, is grounded in a policy where I think, you know, almost
10:38every element agrees, which is that we've got to have a ceasefire in that war.
10:46There is a ceasefire that's been negotiated.
10:49We've been waiting for Netanyahu to accept that.
10:52But a ceasefire that allows for the exchange of hostages, that allows for greater stability
10:58in Gaza, and allows the Palestinians to receive the kind of assistance that they need, and
11:05also the ability to try to hopefully develop a Palestinian approach to providing some kind
11:12of governance for the Palestinians.
11:15All of that is the right place to be right now.
11:18And I think that's where Kamala Harris is, and as long as she stays on those fundamentals,
11:23I think she'll be in good shape in terms of her positioning on the Middle East.
11:28Susan, on other foreign policy issues, namely Ukraine and Asia, everything I'm hearing is
11:35that she will likely be more in lockstep with the president, President Biden, right now,
11:41and pursue some of his policies and statements regarding U.S. commitment to alliances, both
11:49in Asia and in Europe.
11:51I'd like to play sound for you from Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
11:55While he said he won't engage in politics, here's what he did say about the vice president.
12:02What I've observed is someone who asks time and again the penetrating questions, who cuts
12:10to the chase and is intensely focused on the interests of the American people and
12:15making sure that our foreign policy is doing everything it can to advance those interests.
12:20About as diplomatic of an endorsement as you would expect from the secretary of state.
12:25What do you make of the reporting in The Wall Street Journal this week, as would be expected
12:30of any new administration, even if it's one that was affiliated with the current and previous?
12:36They do bring in their own advisors, but there had been raised some questions about
12:42whether or not people like Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan and the Secretary of Defense,
12:47Lloyd Austin, that they would likely leave.
12:50And then the question remains, who would be advising her?
12:54Who would be her foreign policy team?
12:56Because aside from Phil Gordon, not much is known in that respect.
13:00No, that's right.
13:02I don't think Kamala Harris doesn't bring to the vice presidency or to Washington a
13:07large cadre of her own foreign policy advisors or officials.
13:12She was new to the Senate.
13:13She came from a career in California politics.
13:15So it's very different than, say, Hillary Clinton, who had decades of pulling together
13:20people including a stint as secretary of state.
13:22When she was running for president, I do know Phil Gordon, Harris's national security advisor,
13:29while in recent years he's worked as a top advisor to previous Democratic presidents
13:34on both the Middle East and Europe.
13:37So he's deeply familiar across the range of those issues.
13:41He's been working with her since the beginning of her tenure as vice president.
13:45I think you'd see a fair amount of continuity in terms of Democratic foreign policy officials
13:50certainly feeling comfortable working for Harris.
13:53She represents, I think, a fair amount of continuity.
13:57She doesn't have a worldview that's very different.
14:00She's not looking, she's not made any speeches or given any indication, for example, that
14:05she would want to dramatically pull back or reorient American presence in the world.
14:12She's certainly not a liberal version of an American firster in any way.
14:18She's said very, very strong things in terms of the U.S. commitment to Ukraine and an understanding
14:24of the threats posed by Russia as well as China.
14:29So I think you would see continuity.
14:32What I'm looking for is this question, if she becomes president, about, you know, what
14:37her instincts would be, because presidents have an enormous amount of power to make national
14:42security and foreign policy decisions.
14:44And, you know, without that decades of experience, that comfort zone, you wonder whether she
14:49might be more cautious in some ways than someone like Joe Biden, who has the courage
14:55of his convictions after years and years and years of thinking through these things.
14:59For better, for worse, Biden has very strongly held preconceived views on U.S. issues.
15:04I think that's probably not true of Kamala Harris to a certain extent.
15:08Yeah.
15:09And that's said to be one of the reasons that President Obama chose Joe Biden to be his
15:14vice president for that very reason, given his years in focusing on an expertise on foreign
15:21policy.
15:22And that's where I want to turn to you, Secretary Panetta, for one of your other hats that you
15:25played, a very important one that you wore, and that is chief of staff, because it – and
15:31I don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but this sort of fits the same conversation about
15:35who the vice president surrounds herself with.
15:38And there has been some concern over her past staff and support team that there – whether
15:43there'd be a lot of turnover, whether there was infighting, whether she wasn't surrounded
15:47by the top people that she should be.
15:50How important is that, given that she now only has a matter of a few weeks to really
15:56show the nation, undecided voters, even Democrats, who she really is and what her policy positions are?
16:05Well, look, I think you're kind of dealing with two stages here.
16:10One is obviously the campaign.
16:13And I think she's pretty much got to stay on track with kind of the foreign policy positions
16:18that the administration has taken and that she's supported, and basically defend those
16:23positions.
16:24And frankly, it's going to be easy with Trump, who is an America first isolationist, who
16:30doesn't have a tremendous regard for any alliances and for America playing any kind
16:36of world leadership.
16:37So I think she is well equipped to deal with the issues in the campaign.
16:42Frankly, I look on a president as a good thing, very frankly, if they aren't necessarily
16:50steeped in long experience in a particular issue.
16:55What it'll do is it will give them a greater opportunity to bring smart people into the room.
17:01And I think that's what you need.
17:02I think presidents need to have smart people in the room who are providing advice on different
17:09issues, not those that kind of rubber stamp past policy, not just staff people who've
17:14always kind of tried to please their principal, but to really have strong advisors who can
17:21present their experience and their guidance to the president of the United States.
17:26That is absolutely essential.
17:28And I think sometimes we've missed that opportunity for presidents to really open up and be involved
17:35with other smart people in the room.
17:38Well, Susan, an opportunity we know Republicans are already using right now and seizing upon
17:44is her role as the coordinator there and overseer at a point early on in this administration
17:51for the root cause of immigration.
17:54Republicans are calling this a border czar title that she had and that that's not the
17:58case.
17:59But we do know that that was an early fumble, an own goal on her part, given how she handled
18:07that issue as big as it is and how untenable the situation really was at the time.
18:14She clearly has stepped up on other issues.
18:17But with regards to the border, how important is it for her to get this right and to sort
18:23of beat back this narrative that Republicans are already painting?
18:28Yeah, no, they've definitely been trying to, you know, attack her on this.
18:33Now, the Biden administration has announced new policies in recent months that have led
18:37to the numbers going down in terms of who's coming over the border.
18:42I don't know that that makes a difference, quite frankly, Bianna.
18:45I think that because this issue is so salient and so activated, so many Republican voters,
18:51Donald Trump believes that immigration is the reason he became president in the first
18:54place in 2016.
18:56I was at the Republican convention last week in Milwaukee.
18:59Believe me, that was the biggest applause line.
19:02Any mention of illegal immigration, aliens, the so-called caravans, you know, that is
19:08an issue that is triggering and shaping Republican voters in their support right now for Trump.
19:13So I'll be listening very closely to see whether Kamala Harris even engages on this.
19:19I certainly have a theory of the case right now that almost any voter in America who cares
19:23foremost about immigration, who makes that their first or second voting issue, is probably
19:29already supporting Donald Trump in this election.
19:32So I'm curious whether they're even going to engage on this issue, frankly, with her,
19:36or they're just going to focus on the things that she wants to talk about.
19:40Yeah.
19:41And that is her history, right, as a prosecutor, obviously, reproductive rights and the Biden
19:46campaign.
19:47And I'm imagining that they will continue pursuing this argument, was that they had
19:51a very conservative, strong, bipartisan bill with support from both sides of the aisle
20:00up until the last minute that it appears Donald Trump killed.
20:03So that, too, is a way that they're coming back at that attack line.
20:08Secretary, let me turn to the president's speech tonight and just the significance of
20:15the moment.
20:16We've only seen a few similar moments in past U.S. history.
20:21This one comes at a time when the U.S. is not caught in a never-ending war overseas,
20:27and it's coming very close to the election itself.
20:32Your thoughts on the legacy of President Biden as he's finishing up the last six months of
20:40his term?
20:41Well, I think this is a very important moment for the president of the United States.
20:48Look, I think he made the right decision for himself and for the country.
20:52I'm sure it was not easy, but at the same time, I think it was the right decision.
20:57And you can just sense it, that the Democrats are back in this race.
21:02There's a tremendous amount of excitement and enthusiasm with regards to Kamala Harris
21:07that was lacking.
21:09So I think we're in a good place.
21:11And I think what he can do is basically say, look, I made the right decision for the country.
21:19I'm going to continue to serve as president of the United States and continue to develop
21:26the policies that I think I've worked on during my entire term that I think have helped America.
21:34And I'm going to do everything I can to try to support the Democratic candidate for president
21:41of the United States.
21:42I've worked with her.
21:43I know her.
21:45I know that she'll be a great leader for our country.
21:48So he can basically use this speech to create that transition from having been president
21:56of the United States, candidate for president, to being a president of the United States
22:01who now is passing the baton or the torch, if you will, to a new candidate and basically
22:08supporting her role in developing a message that I think she's already developed very
22:15well, which is that this election is about whether we're going to move forward into the
22:20future or whether we're going to move backward.
22:22I hope the president emphasizes that message as well.
22:26Yeah.
22:27Well, I think in that sense, his legacy is really connected and intertwined with hers
22:32as well.
22:33Leon Panetta, Susan Glasser, thank you so much.
22:36So good to see you both.
22:37Good to be with you.
22:40Well, next to Venezuela, where after years of struggle, the country may have an opportunity
22:45to overcome an authoritarian regime.
22:48For 11 years under President Nicolas Maduro, oil-rich Venezuela suffered a catastrophic
22:52economic crash and around eight million people have fled the country.
22:57Well, now, polls suggest the opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, a former diplomat, is more
23:02popular.
23:04But there are fears that history might repeat itself.
23:06Maduro's 2018 reelection was widely regarded as rigged.
23:10And Gonzalez is only standing after two other opposition candidates were barred from running.
23:16The incumbent president even warning of a, quote, bloodbath in Venezuela, a civil war
23:20if he doesn't win on Sunday.
23:23Just at the scene, correspondent Stefano Pozzoban joins us now from Caracas.
23:26Stefano, I think just even that introduction itself explains the high anticipation going
23:33into Sunday, but also a lot of challenges facing voters in questioning whether or not
23:40this will actually even be a legitimate election.
23:42Yes, Bianna, exactly.
23:44It's interesting that especially the notes from the international community, when I spoke
23:49with ambassadors and diplomats over the last couple of weeks here in Caracas, they have
23:53changed their message from a free and fair election to an election that is competitive.
23:59Nobody is daring to say that this election is free or fair.
24:03There are still great restrictions on opposition presence on traditional media, for example.
24:08The opposition candidate's face is nowhere to be seen here in Caracas, while you see
24:13Maduro's face a lot of times when you drive around the city.
24:18But at the same time, this is a competitive election, and that is already something new
24:23for Venezuela.
24:24After 2019 and the debacle of what happened with Juan Guaido, the previous opposition
24:30leader, and the pressure from the international community, Maduro just cemented his power.
24:36And five years later, he's now facing the toughest electoral choice in his career.
24:41The opposition clearly has a shot at the presidency, and Edmundo González has told
24:49CNN time and again that he's going to try to be a transition candidate, sending a message
24:55to the government and to the government officials that he's considering granting or at least
25:00having a discussion about amnesty and about transitional justice.
25:04It's an important election, especially, Bianna, because this is a country where 75% of the
25:10population, 25% of the population has left the country in recent years.
25:16There are millions of Venezuelans who have left the country and are now in other countries
25:21in Latin America.
25:22And many experts are afraid and worried that a Maduro victory will translate in a new migration
25:29wave, Bianna.
25:30BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN CORRESPONDENT, VENEZUELA NEWS HOUR NEWSHOUR): Stefano Pozzoban in Caracas,
25:33Venezuela, thank you so much.
25:34So can the opposition finally unseat President Maduro?
25:38David Smolensky is a former Venezuelan mayor and opposition politician who has lived in
25:41exile in the U.S. since 2017.
25:44He joins the program from D.C.
25:46David, thank you.
25:47Welcome to the program.
25:50Let me start with the fact that, yes, there is a lot of anticipation going on and perhaps
25:54some promise going into this election.
25:57But the fact that the opposition candidate who was viewed as the strongest opposition
26:02perhaps to the Maduro regime, and that is Maria Corina Machado, was barred from running
26:07and thus she's the one who appears to be backing Edmundo Gonzalez and his rise, is notable.
26:16And that leads to what we heard from Stefano, that this isn't even being viewed as a free
26:20and fair election, more of a competitive one.
26:24How would you see it?
26:25EDMUNDO GONZALEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT, VENEZUELA NEWS HOUR NEWS HOUR, CNN CORRESPONDENT, VENEZUELA
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30:31VENEZUELA MEDIA HERALD TIGER analyze what happened in bucolico.
30:51saying, that he was very concerned about that type of language.
30:56Here's what he said.
30:57DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States, backwards to translation in Venezuela, backslash
30:58to Venezuelan President Guillermo M cinco news): I was scared by the comments Maduro
31:00made, saying that, if he lost the elections, there would be a bloodbath.
31:05I spoke with Maduro two times.
31:07I spoke with him over the phone.
31:08And Maduro knows that the only chance for Venezuela to come back to normality is to
31:13have a widely respected electoral process.
31:15How much do you view those comments, a bloodbath, as a real threat?
31:21Is the military there 100 percent on Maduro's side to really act on those words?
31:29The armed forces need to obey the Constitution.
31:33That's what we're asking.
31:34Not repress and respect what the majority of Venezuelans will decide this Sunday.
31:41This 25 years has been more than enough of many people suffering, many people that have
31:46been victims of crimes against humanity and human rights violations.
31:51So if armed forces obey the Constitution and respect what the majority of Venezuelans will
31:58express this Sunday, I think the transition could begin.
32:01And let me add that what President Lula said a couple of days ago was very, very important.
32:08Brazil knows what the Venezuelans are suffering.
32:11More than 500,000 Venezuelans have fled to Brazil looking for opportunities that they
32:16don't have in Venezuela.
32:18And if Maduro prevails, unfortunately more people will flee to Brazil, among other countries.
32:24So no one wants bloodbath or things like that.
32:28The only one who has said that is Maduro, because the only campaign that Maduro has
32:31is their repression, his violence.
32:33He cannot offer anything different from it.
32:36It's interesting.
32:37When I asked you how closely aligned the military is with the Maduro regime, you said
32:43they should uphold the Constitution.
32:47That doesn't really answer the question, though.
32:50What they should do and what they may likely do are two very different things.
32:55Well, many of the soldiers that are part of the armed forces are suffering from the problems
33:00that you described earlier.
33:03Thousands of soldiers, they don't have enough food, they don't have enough medicine.
33:08They are victims of the presence of foreign agents from Cuba and Russia.
33:17They don't enjoy a powerful economy where they could have savings, and especially young
33:24soldiers.
33:25So they are not a group, aside from the society and aside from the suffering that the common
33:30people have in Venezuela.
33:33As I said, the armed forces need to be institutional, they need to obey the Constitution, they need
33:38to respect what Venezuelans are going to say this Sunday, and we will have the world watching.
33:44We will have the world watching, and that's very important.
33:46And the world has been watching, and we've seen two different administrations here in
33:49the U.S. over the past few years have different approaches, really.
33:55Sanctions have been in place from both the Biden administration and the Trump administration
33:59before that, but they were loosened up a bit by the Biden administration, if for no other
34:03reason than the war in Ukraine and the concern about oil prices.
34:09Which U.S. policy, in your view, has been the most efficient and effective in dealing
34:15with the Maduro regime?
34:17I would say that this administration could have a foreign policy victory if transition
34:24starts in Venezuela on Sunday.
34:25And definitely, it seems like since the terrorist attack in Israel happened last October 7th,
34:33and the invasion of Russia and Ukraine started more than two years ago, it seems that those
34:38two issues won't be solved before the year's end or before the elections here in November.
34:45But a problem that is in this hemisphere that could be solved quicker, it's Venezuela.
34:51And as I said earlier, if Maduro prevails, more people are going to flee.
34:56During the last three years, more than 700,000 Venezuelans have come through the southern
35:00border.
35:01Only last year, more than 350,000 Venezuelans went through the Darien Gap.
35:07The root cause is the dictatorship.
35:09There's no other root cause.
35:10So if we want to stop people fleeing, the best thing that could happen in Venezuela
35:15is to start a democratic transition.
35:17And the effort from the international community, let me say, goes beyond the U.S.
35:21The role that Colombia and Brazil are playing is crucial.
35:25Other Latin American countries, such as Chile, for example, of course, the European Union.
35:30So the democratic role, we'll be watching this Sunday and hopefully protecting the Venezuelans.
35:39What is your advice to now likely to be Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in terms of watching
35:45what's happening in Venezuela, paying close attention to this election, and specifically
35:50as it relates to the migrant crisis, which as you know is a top issue going into this
35:55election?
35:56Well, I would say to the candidate Kamala Harris, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris
36:02and Vice President of the United States, that she should have on her priority list on foreign
36:11policy during the next days Venezuela.
36:132024 has had so many elections.
36:15France, the U.K., India, the U.S. will have also one in November.
36:20But maybe Venezuela will be one of the most important and one of the most surprising if
36:24we achieve the transition to democracy.
36:26And of course, I mean, migration has been a big issue, not only in the U.S., but in
36:36the whole region, because in the last 10 years, 8 million Venezuelans have fled the country.
36:41So we hope that VP Harris will have Venezuela as her priority on foreign policy during the
36:49next days, weeks, and months, and we have said that to the U.S. government.
36:54We are hoping for a safe and fair and free election that we'll be paying close attention
36:58to this Sunday.
36:59David Smolansky, thank you so much for joining the program.
37:02Thank you for having me.
37:03Well, from one uncertain election to another, our next guest had a front row seat to what
37:07has been a traumatic turn of events for Donald Trump and his team.
37:11The Atlantic staff writer Tim Alberta spent months behind the scenes of his campaign and
37:16just two weeks ago reported that they were planning for a landslide victory on the condition
37:21that Joe Biden didn't drop out.
37:23Well, now their worst fears have come true.
37:26Alberta joins Michelle Martin to discuss how the Trump campaign is shifting its approach
37:30to confront a new Democratic nominee.
37:34Thanks Bianna.
37:35Tim Alberta, thanks so much for joining us.
37:37You're welcome.
37:38Thank you for having me.
37:39So one of the reasons we called you is that you have been closely watching the Trump campaign
37:44for some months now.
37:45I would go for so far as to say you've been kind of embedded with the Trump campaign.
37:49So what was the reaction when they heard that President Biden had decided to withdraw from
37:56his reelection bid and throw his support to Kamala Harris?
37:59What was the reaction?
38:00You know, I would say that they were pretty surprised.
38:03I don't think they were shocked because they'd been thinking about this for a very long time.
38:08To be clear, I've written about how going back many months, they were preparing for
38:13the possibility of a switch atop the Democratic ticket, well predating Joe Biden's disastrous
38:19debate performance in late June.
38:22But I think by the time the convention rolled around in Milwaukee, and it had been several
38:26weeks at that point since the debate, and Biden really seemed to be digging in and his
38:31top advisors were telling everyone that he was going to stick this out.
38:36I think the Trump folks had really reached the conclusion at that point that he was going
38:39to stay in, that he was going to be their opponent.
38:42So I think suddenly, Sunday, when the news came, they were pretty surprised and unpleasantly
38:48surprised, I would add, because this was who they wanted to run against.
38:53Make no mistake, Joe Biden was the optimal target they felt for Donald Trump in this
38:58campaign.
38:59And why is that?
39:01Well, I think that the fundamental frame that the Trump people had wanted to use in this
39:08election was about strength versus weakness.
39:11And certainly at a policy level, they're going to talk about inflation at historic levels.
39:16They're going to talk about the southern border being overrun.
39:19They're going to talk about geopolitical chaos around the world and how Biden is just too
39:23weak to handle all of this.
39:25But I think really, in a more intimate, visceral way, they were going to seize upon Biden's
39:34age and his visible decline to really try to paint Trump as this sort of macho, forceful
39:42alpha compared to Joe Biden, who was feeble and sort of fading before our very eyes.
39:49And all of the polling that they were doing, all of the focus grouping that the Trump folks
39:54had done, all the modeling of different voters was really showing that to be a very effective
40:00strategy.
40:01And they felt like they had the Biden campaign kind of backed into a corner here.
40:05And if you talk to Democrats, they sort of believe the same thing.
40:09There were a lot of folks close to Biden who were really beginning to question whether
40:13there was any path forward for him, given the damage that he had already sustained.
40:18You've written about the fact that they were actually talking landslide.
40:21They actually believed they were going to have a landslide, at least in the Electoral
40:25College, if not in the popular vote.
40:28Why were they so confident about that?
40:29What made them say that?
40:30Yeah, you know, I think it comes down to a couple of things.
40:34First, if you look at the polling that's been done publicly, as well as the private polling
40:39that both parties have been privy to, it has shown pretty consistently Trump with safe
40:46and growing leads across most of these battleground states.
40:51The core battleground states that both campaigns have been fighting over for some time.
40:56But then beyond that, what we've seen over the last six weeks or so are some real hints
41:03that other states that had been thought to be safely Democratic, states like Minnesota,
41:08states like Virginia, New Hampshire, that they were coming into play.
41:13And this was not just spin from the Trump campaign.
41:17There were Democrats looking at the numbers, concluding the same thing.
41:21I think the other problematic element for Biden that Democrats were unable to look away
41:28from once they saw it was just this chasm of intensity, enthusiasm between where the
41:34Republicans have been with the Republican base sort of fully on board with Trump and
41:40donating lots of money and volunteering and coming out and really showing a united front
41:47around their nominee versus Biden, who based on a lot of just sort of on the ground metrics
41:53that Democrats in these swing states have described to me, that their enthusiasm was
41:58really anemic, that they were really struggling to get their base voters, particularly young
42:03people, particularly young men of color, that they just could not get these people fired
42:09up about this election.
42:10And if there was a very real chance that those voters, some of them would actually defect
42:15to Trump, not just sit out the election, but would actually switch and vote Republican.
42:20So I think the combination of those things was leading a lot of Republicans and some
42:24Democrats to conclude that we might be headed towards a landslide election.
42:29So how does Harris disrupt that, those calculations?
42:34So let's be clear.
42:35Kamala Harris is going to inherit some of Joe Biden's baggage.
42:39That's just inevitable because she is his vice president.
42:44When it comes to questions around immigration, the economy, there's no doubt that she's going
42:48to take some of the hits there.
42:50But Kamala Harris is two decades younger than Donald Trump.
42:54And what we know is that the Trump campaign was really counting on a sort of stamina test
43:01in this campaign, that they were going to be flying around the country doing tons of
43:04events, that they were going to be running circles around Joe Biden, and that they were
43:08going to be drawing this contrast in terms of energy and this display of how Republicans
43:17were the ones fighting for you while Democrats are sort of asleep at the switch.
43:21And Kamala Harris obviously is going to change that dynamic in a fundamental way.
43:27She's going to hit the trail.
43:29She's going to be out there, and she's going to be campaigning in settings and in ways
43:33that Joe Biden simply couldn't.
43:36How about that baggage question?
43:38I mean, look, the Democrats have been leaning into policy.
43:42They've been saying that Joe Biden has delivered on what he promised, right?
43:46They say this has been one of the most consequential administrations, you know, in decades.
43:51You know, the Republicans, I think, have been arguing that they prioritize the wrong things.
43:57What they should have been prioritizing was the southern border and inflation, you know,
44:02overall.
44:03How does Harris deal with that?
44:04It's a really interesting question because Democrats have tried from the top down for
44:10the past year to sell Americans on this idea of this administration having been incredibly
44:18successful, having passed really consequential legislation, having proven to be really competent
44:23in clearing some tough governing hurdles.
44:27And the public has just responded with a shrug.
44:32We've got a lot of polling, a lot of data points to show that Democrats really haven't
44:37had any return on that investment.
44:40So it's going to be interesting to see, just from a messaging standpoint, whether the vice
44:46president now taking over for the president, whether she is going to be just as insistent
44:53on running on these accomplishments of the past, or will she pivot and be more forward
44:59looking in this campaign?
45:00I mean, one of the maxims of political campaigning is that it's always about the future, right?
45:07And so that is obviously one area where President Biden had really struggled.
45:12I mean, he just was not articulating any sort of coherent, specific vision for what America
45:20would look like after four more years of his presidency.
45:23That's going to be, I think, an opening for Kamala Harris.
45:26But obviously, the devil is in the details.
45:29And what is it that she is able to sell the American people on?
45:33Can she more effectively offer a vision than Donald Trump?
45:39That does, in some ways, change the very essence of the campaign, because so much of what Biden
45:44had been doing was talking about these last four years.
45:47I think, obviously, Harris will have to talk about the next four years.
45:51I want to ask you about a couple of key players in the Trump campaign, specifically Chris
45:55LaCivita.
45:56You know, people who do remember these things, remember that his Swift Boat Veterans for
46:01Truth campaign against John Kerry in 2004, it is considered one of the most successful
46:08campaigns, and in some quarters infamous, you know, kind of the avatar for some people
46:12of kind of dirty politics in the modern era.
46:15So you reported that LaCivita was actually hesitant to join Trump's campaign in the beginning
46:21due to his behavior.
46:25You say that he initially felt alarmed during Trump's 2016 rise and during the mob attack
46:30on the Capitol, which Trump, you know, promoted.
46:33What changed his mind?
46:35Well, look, I think Chris LaCivita, like so many others who have gone to work for Donald
46:41Trump in the past, they see an opportunity here to win the presidency.
46:47They see an opportunity to change the country.
46:49They see an opportunity to implement a vision for America that would run almost directly
46:56counter to the vision of the left and of the Democratic Party.
46:59And so to varying degrees, they find themselves willing to accommodate themselves to Donald
47:08Trump and sort of set aside some of their qualms, some of their misgivings, and get
47:13in, climb into the foxhole with him.
47:15And once they've done that, I think in a lot of cases you see these folks on the Trump
47:21campaign, not just in 2024, but in 2020 as well, even in 2016, they start to internalize
47:29a lot of the attacks on Trump.
47:31They begin to find themselves sort of in more of a close bond with him as they see him coming
47:37under fire.
47:38And it creates this dynamic where people who were once highly skeptical of the man become
47:44some of his staunchest allies and some of his strongest defenders.
47:48And so I think that's true for someone like Chris LaCivita.
47:52And he kind of, you know, says as much at times to me in the piece that you're referencing.
47:57And I think that it's also true for any number of people who have come into Trump's orbit
48:01over the years.
48:02Some of them now having come out on the other side have talked about this, written about
48:07this themselves.
48:08But I am curious about whether some of the things that he generally employs against his
48:16opponents, you know, the name calling, the nicknames, the kind of the personal attacks.
48:24Is there any point at which they are concerned that that might not work against Kamala Harris,
48:30that they're just, there are too many people who might identify with her who are important
48:36to them, like suburban women, that they think, you know, maybe there's a point at which even
48:42he can't go?
48:44Well, look, there's no question that campaigning against Joe Biden is not the same as campaigning
48:52against Kamala Harris.
48:54And the Trump campaign is certainly attuned to the sensitivities around attacking a woman
49:02of color versus attacking an older white man.
49:05And the question is really, is Trump attuned to those sensitivities?
49:11They can tell him to be careful.
49:14They can ask him to proofread his social media posts or to try to tone things down before
49:21going on stage at a rally.
49:23But ultimately, Donald Trump cannot be tamed.
49:27He is who he is.
49:28And he has been the same man for a very, very long time.
49:32And everybody who goes to work for him recognizes that same thing about five minutes after they
49:38arrive.
49:39And so, we're going to see.
49:41There is definitely concern among Trump's allies and across the Republican Party about
49:47the pitfalls of running against Kamala Harris.
49:52What are some of the differences that you've seen between the voter mobilization strategies
49:57employed by each campaign?
50:00Can you just talk a little bit more about what are those strategies and what have they
50:03been on each side and how that might change?
50:08Sure.
50:09Well, the Biden campaign, now the Harris campaign, the Democratic Party has really run a very
50:16conventional, large-scale operation where they're dropping, you know, hundreds and hundreds—actually,
50:24I think now over a thousand—paid staffers into the states that are going to decide the
50:30election.
50:31And these people are knocking on doors, they're making phone calls, they're handing out literature,
50:35they're doing all of the traditional field operations.
50:38And they believe that ultimately the base of the Democratic Party has not changed and
50:44that those people will ultimately, when push comes to shove, turn out and vote for the
50:48Democrat, whoever it is atop the ticket.
50:50The Trump campaign is thinking very differently.
50:52They are employing a much smaller, nimbler field operation that's really banking mostly
50:59on unpaid volunteers, trying to harness some of the enthusiasm in their party's base to
51:05go out and do two things.
51:08Number one, to try to go out and find new pockets of Trump voters, people who are sympathetic
51:14to the MAGA movement but who have not voted for Trump in the past.
51:18How many of those people really exist?
51:20We don't know.
51:21But the Trump campaign thinks that there are quite a few of them, and they believe that
51:24they can go out, identify those people, and turn them out to vote in November.
51:28The other thing the Trump campaign is trying to do is they are very intent on siphoning
51:34away votes from the Democratic base, particularly black men ages 18 to 34, Latino men under
51:4140, maybe under 45.
51:42There is a belief that working-class minority men in particular are ripe targets for this
51:48Trump campaign in this political environment.
51:51And so what you're seeing are a lot of micro-targeted efforts, not necessarily knocking on those
51:57doors, not going to them physically, but reaching them digitally and through TV and mail, trying
52:03to get these folks who have, in many cases, no history of voting Republican to do so for
52:08the first time.
52:09I want to ask you about something you posted.
52:11You said that the most striking thing you heard from Trump allies is that they were
52:14second-guessing J.D. Vance as a selection.
52:18What exactly did they tell you, and why?
52:20Well, to be clear, J.D. Vance was seen as kind of a luxury pick for Donald Trump.
52:28This is someone who does not necessarily add the impact that she would look for in a really
52:35close election.
52:36So if you're thinking about these suburban swing voters who are right on the fence and
52:41who could go either way, then there's a strong argument to be made, and it was being made
52:46to Donald Trump by certain people close to him, that Marco Rubio would be a much better
52:52option.
52:53Even someone like a Nikki Haley, that was always going to be unlikely given the tumultuous
52:57relationship between her and Trump.
52:59But the point is, there were other options for Donald Trump that would have made a lot
53:02more sense on paper, that would have been probably more effective in reaching out to
53:07independents and moderate voters.
53:09J.D. Vance is really seen as someone who can energize the base and who can take Trump's
53:14core message of populism right to the heart of these Rust Belt states and hammer home
53:22the idea that Democrats have let down the American worker.
53:28That's fine, and that can still be effective, but I think a lot of Republicans worry that
53:33those voters were probably already going to be in Trump's category, that they were already
53:38going to be voting Republican, and that the upside of picking Vance is pretty limited
53:43relative to the upside of somebody else who might be able, in a very close election, to
53:49convince some of these other voters who are much less persuadable.
53:54Before we let you go, Tim, is there a vice presidential contender that the Trump campaign
54:00is really worried about?
54:02Like, who's their worst nightmare?
54:05Well, there are two names that have come up quite a bit, and that's Mark Kelly, the senator
54:10from Arizona, Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania.
54:15Both of these guys are seen as a really effective counterbalance to Kamala Harris because they
54:22are more moderate than she is on a range of issues.
54:25There are also men who represent battleground states that the Trump campaign felt like were
54:31really starting to slip away from the Democrats, and if either of those gentlemen were to join
54:38the ticket with Kamala Harris, they fear, Republicans fear, that those states would
54:42come right back into play, particularly Pennsylvania, which might be the most important state in
54:46the entire election.
54:47So, yes, those are the two names that you hear about a lot from Republicans and from
54:53people close to Trump, and I think if they've got the truth serum stuck into their veins
55:00and you ask them, who is the one person you really don't want to see?
55:03They would say Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania.
55:06Tim Alberta, thanks so much for talking with us.
55:09You're welcome.
55:11And finally, from Paris to Tahiti, surfing is returning to its birthplace for this year's Olympics.
55:17Ten thousand miles away from the rest of the sporting events in France, it is the furthest
55:22away an Olympic event has ever been held from the host city.
55:26The competition is being held in Teahupo'o, famed for its barrel waves that can reach
55:3030 feet high.
55:32Far better conditions compared to the calm waters in France this time of year.
55:37Sports origins date all the way back to 12th century Polynesia, connecting today's competition
55:42to generations of heritage and tradition.
55:45Well, that is it for now.
55:47Thanks so much for watching, and goodbye from New York.