Blu Putnam joined Benzinga's Premarket Prep team to discuss the upcoming jobs economic data in September and what effect it might have on the market.
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00:00Well, the jobs number, I think, is really critical.
00:02It's September 6th.
00:03I'm looking for 150,000, which would be a bounce up, not a particularly big bounce up, but
00:08a little bit.
00:09There are two reasons for that.
00:11One, go to the next picture, and I'll give you the two reasons on the job data.
00:17The two reasons are that we had Hurricane Beryl in Texas that may have depressed the
00:24numbers a little bit, and then these numbers, zig and zag, and we're due for a zag.
00:29We've had a zig, and so a little bit of a bounce back.
00:34It really should not be ruled out.
00:37The reason these numbers are so, so critical is we triggered the SOM rule.
00:42That's economist Claudia SOM.
00:45She's a great economist.
00:47She did some data mining a number of years back to see if you could kind of warn the
00:52federal government that a recession was coming, and she used the unemployment rate.
00:57We have triggered that rule.
00:59We've gone from 3.4 back in 2023 to 4.3, but it's a statistical pattern.
01:09It is not causal.
01:10She'll tell you that.
01:12What's different this time around is the unemployment rate is rising when we're still creating 100,000
01:19plus jobs.
01:20If we're creating 100,000 jobs, even though it's weaker than it used to be, you're not
01:25going to have a recession.