On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed a new HarrisX/Forbes poll taken after the RNC but before President Biden quit the race showing former President Trump leading Vice President Harris head-to-head.
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00:00Let's talk about how that over 90 minute speech translated in the horse race, because we know that in a head-to-head matchup, former President Trump was beating Biden.
00:12But then, you know, as you noted yesterday, we saw President Biden drop out of the 2024 race.
00:19I know Harris Acts Forbes has some numbers about a head-to-head matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
00:27Talk about the numbers here.
00:29Absolutely. So the post-convention speech bump is real for both Trump and the Republicans.
00:39What we're seeing is that former President Trump has nearly doubled his lead both towards President Biden and towards Kamala Harris.
00:52So right now, where the state of the horse race stands is that Trump is ahead by eight points when you don't account for undecideds, when you run him against Biden.
01:06And then when you factor in for those undecideds and you ask them, which way are you leaning, he's ahead by six points.
01:12This is roughly two times the gap or the margin that we had several days ago or a few days ago when we last spoke together and we were last tracking the state of the horse race.
01:25With Harris, we see similar numbers.
01:29Trump is ahead by nine points compared to Harris when you don't factor in undecided voters.
01:37And when you push undecided voters, Harris does a little bit better with undecided voters than Biden did.
01:44So it's, again, Trump plus six. So she cuts the margin when you factor in undecideds, but still starting behind and still needing to make up a good amount of ground compared to President Trump.
02:03The other thing that's concerning for the Democrats is that the gap grows amongst likely voters to a double digit gap.
02:12When you look at likely voters, those who say that they are very likely to vote or significantly likely to vote in the upcoming election, the gap is plus 10 when you don't factor in undecideds.
02:30And then when you factor in undecideds, it narrows a little bit to plus eight.
02:35And these numbers are the same for both Biden and Kamala Harris.
02:40So the post-conventional speech and post-convention bump for Trump is real.
02:48And at least as of an hour before President Biden's announcement, neither Harris nor Biden are doing particularly well.
02:58They're both starting behind the eight ball when you match them up with Trump.