Elections analyst Casey Briggs discusses how Kamala Harris stacks up in the polls against Donald Trump and the implications of Biden's withdrawal from the race. The analysis includes a deep dive into the current polling data and predictions on how the race may evolve.
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00:00The first thing I'll say, massive grain of salt on all the numbers I'm about to give
00:05you because Kamala Harris is a hypothetical candidate at this point and it's much harder
00:10to poll and get genuine views on a hypothetical candidate versus a real one.
00:14But two pieces of data we can take you to, just the approval ratings of Joe Biden versus
00:19Kamala Harris.
00:20They're not voting intention figures, but...
00:22Joe Biden or Donald Trump?
00:23Sorry, I'm going to start with Joe Biden as the candidate, the Democratic candidate.
00:27Joe Biden at the moment, when you look at the 538 published approval ratings, has a
00:31negative approval rating, minus 17.7%, so a fair more people disapprove of his performance
00:37than approve of it.
00:39Kamala Harris has a negative 11.8 net approval rating, so still negative, but less negative
00:44than Joe Biden at the moment, at least in a sort of vague, do you approve of this person
00:49kind of sense, she's a more popular figure than Joe Biden.
00:53When you look at the sort of horse race poll between Donald Trump and the Democrats, yeah,
00:58there's not actually been a whole lot of a look at, you know, not all that much polling
01:03done around Kamala Harris, as I say, she's a hypothetical, but the polling that has been
01:07done suggests that she's performing as well or slightly better in the horse race with
01:13Donald Trump than Joe Biden was.
01:15So there was a New York Times Sienna poll earlier in the month that found her performing
01:18maybe two percentage points better in Pennsylvania, sort of similar numbers in Virginia.
01:22Nationally, the polling averages are suggesting maybe one percentage point better.
01:28So I think that has given Democrats the confidence to think, well, we have someone we're fundamentally
01:34quite worried about his capacity to lead this campaign to November.
01:40And we seem to have another person who is performing at worse, no worse, and that's
01:45before she gets the sort of mantle of the presidential nomination, presuming, of course,
01:51that she is the eventual nominee, which is a big if at this point, but she's the clear
01:54front runner.
01:55So let's keep talking about her.
01:56Is it really a big if?
01:57Well, it's a big if in the sense that, you know, you would be, I think it's unwise to
02:05make massive projections about things in US politics this year.
02:08We've seen so many very unpredictable things happening.
02:11Yeah, you're right.
02:13She's clearly got the big head start.
02:15She's clearly got lots of endorsements.
02:16She's clearly the front runner at this point.
02:19There are a couple of people who are suggesting they might put their hands up, or at least
02:22are considering a run, Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia.
02:26I don't think he's a serious contender for it.
02:29It's probably doubtful he'd even get the kind of delegate support to get on the ballot.
02:33But we'll see where these things shake out in the next few days.
02:36We certainly know senior figures in the party have privately been thinking maybe an open
02:40convention is a good idea, even if Kamala Harris is the ultimate winner.
02:43It might strengthen her.
02:46There's a lot to play out in that race, but the early figures we've got, and I think there'll
02:50be a lot more polling to come out this week with the much more real prospect that she
02:55might be the candidate, the early suggestions are, well, at least on that, maybe no worse
02:59than Joe Biden, and that's probably an upside.
03:02We all know, Casey, that American elections are largely about the money, how much can
03:07be raised.
03:08They're hugely expensive to run a campaign.
03:10I've just been reading ActBlue, a fundraising platform, says that Kamala Harris has raised
03:15$27.5 million in the five hours since she announced her candidacy, and that will be
03:21key to how quickly she can bring in the funding.
03:24It's sounding like this might be the single biggest day of Democratic fundraising in this
03:27cycle so far, just the sort of pace at which things have kicked up for the Democrats.
03:33Now, I think there had been reports fundraising had been slowing in the past few weeks as
03:37those concerns about Joe Biden and his viability grew, so potentially there are some people
03:41that had held off and now think, OK, now's the time to pull the trigger.
03:45But, Lorna, you make the point about the dynamics of this race changing.
03:48Everything is about to fundamentally change.
03:50When you look at the campaigns these two sides will run, and that's the other reason I think
03:54it's so hypothetical about what will happen next, the Democrats have been running on this
03:59campaign essentially against Donald Trump, saying he's a threat to democracy and a threat
04:04to the country.
04:05They, at this point, can keep that message but swap out the messenger, whereas the Republicans'
04:10main argument has been against Joe Biden and his age, you know, the sleepy Joe lines,
04:17the sort of argument that he's frail, and that has resonated with voters.
04:20That's been the single biggest concern of voters in this race.
04:24So the Republicans need to retool and work out how they're going to challenge a different
04:29candidate.
04:30And we've already got a sign of that with a YouTube, a two-minute YouTube piece this
04:34morning from the Republicans on immigration in particular.
04:38Very much trying to tie Kamala Harris to Joe Biden's record in that sense.
04:44But also I wonder if the issues that voters are worried about will change, because now
04:48age is less of an issue for those people who are considering the Democrats, and the great
04:52irony of this, of course, is with Joe Biden's withdrawal, that makes Donald Trump the single
04:57oldest person to ever run for the presidency.
04:59So whether the sort of age question flips and becomes an issue for the Republicans,
05:04we shall see.
05:05OK, thanks Casey.