The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Friday, July 19, said the two low pressure areas (LPA) within the country’s area of responsibility have developed into tropical depressions at 8 p.m.
PAGASA said the tropical depressions west of Batangas and east of Bicol region have been given the local names “Butchoy” and “Carina,” respectively.
In its 11 p.m. tropical cyclone bulletin, PAGASA said Butchoy is unlikely to directly affect the country within the next three days.
READ MORE: https://mb.com.ph/2024/7/20/two-lp-as-develop-into-tropical-depressions-named-butchoy-carina
PAGASA said the tropical depressions west of Batangas and east of Bicol region have been given the local names “Butchoy” and “Carina,” respectively.
In its 11 p.m. tropical cyclone bulletin, PAGASA said Butchoy is unlikely to directly affect the country within the next three days.
READ MORE: https://mb.com.ph/2024/7/20/two-lp-as-develop-into-tropical-depressions-named-butchoy-carina
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NewsTranscript
00:00Earlier at 8 p.m. last night, two low-pressure areas that we have been monitoring for the past few days continued to catch fire.
00:09First, this low-pressure area in the Kanluran part of our country,
00:13we were given the local name of Butchoy and earlier at 10 p.m. last night, it was last seen
00:18in the 535-kilometer-wide Kanluran of Tanawan City in Batangas.
00:23It has a strong wind that is close to the middle, reaching 55 kilometers per hour.
00:28And when it opens, it reaches 70 kilometers per hour.
00:31The continuous movement of the so-called storm, Tropical Depression Butchoy,
00:36is westward at a speed of 25 kilometers per hour.
00:40And the second low-pressure area, this one in the eastern part of our country,
00:45earlier at 10 p.m. last night, we were also given the local name of Karina.
00:51So this Tropical Depression earlier, its latest location, earlier at 10 p.m.,
00:55is at a distance of 780 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes.
01:00It has a strong wind that is close to the middle, reaching 45 kilometers per hour.
01:05And when it opens, it reaches 55 kilometers per hour.
01:10Its continuous movement is west-northwestward at a speed of 20 kilometers per hour.
01:15So we can see here in our latest satellite images,
01:18that these storms associated with these types of storms
01:21are not reaching any part of our country.
01:24Even so, this Southwest Monsoon, or Hanging Habagat,
01:27continues to sweep the cloudy skies,
01:30where there are widespread rains, floods, and landslides
01:33in a large part of Central and Southern Luzon,
01:35on the other side of Metro Manila, western section of Visayas,
01:39and this western and southern sections of Mindanao.
01:44And for the track and intensity forecast of this storm,
01:48we expect that for the next 24 hours,
01:51tomorrow, on Saturday, it will be 915 kilometers west of Northern Luzon,
01:58which is the center of the storm,
02:00so it is outside of our Philippine Area of Responsibility.
02:03The movement of the storm will continue on our land
02:06for the next few days.
02:08So 24 hours after that, on Sunday,
02:10it will be 1,045 kilometers west of Northern Luzon,
02:14and by Monday, it will be 1,265 kilometers north of Extreme Northern Luzon.
02:24For the track and intensity forecast of this Tropical Depression,
02:30for the next 24 hours, on Saturday,
02:34on Saturday night specifically,
02:37it will be 715 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora.
02:41The generally north-westward movement of this storm will continue,
02:45and by Sunday, it will be 525 kilometers east of Tegugarau City in Cagayan.
02:52And by Monday night, July 22,
02:56the location of this storm is 430 kilometers east of Pari, Cagayan.
03:03The generally northward movement of this storm will continue
03:07towards the northern boundary of our Philippine Area of Responsibility,
03:11and by July 23, Tuesday,
03:15its location is 425 kilometers east of Itbayat, Batanes.
03:19And by Wednesday next week,
03:22its location is near the northern boundary of our Pari,
03:25570 kilometers northeast of Itbayat, Batanes.
03:31And what are the expected impacts of this storm,
03:36Bochoy and Carina, in the next few days?
03:39Unlikely, we do not expect that there will be a direct effect
03:43of the rains brought by Bochoy in any part of our country
03:47in the next three days.
03:49And there is a small chance that Carina will cause heavy rainfall
03:52in any part of our region.
03:54But if there are significant changes in our track scenario,
03:57especially in Tropical Depression Carina,
04:00it is possible that there will be changes in our heavy rainfall outlook
04:03in the next few days or within the forecast period.
04:06If we stay with the succeeding tropical cyclone bulletin,
04:09there will be hope for these storms.
04:14And currently, this Southwest Monsoon,
04:17or Hanging Habagat, is being enhanced or differentiated
04:20by Tropical Depression Bochoy.
04:22So now, Bochoy is the only one that is getting stronger by Hanging Habagat.
04:25So on Sunday, July 21, it is also possible that Carina will strengthen
04:29this Hanging Habagat, which will be affected by moderate to heavy rains.
04:32So it will be moderate to heavy rainfall in the northern part of Luzon
04:36over the next three days.
04:40So for more details on the areas that will experience
04:43significant rainfall in the next few days,
04:46starting tomorrow, July 20, we will experience 50 to 100 millimeters.
04:51So this is equivalent to moderate to heavy rains
04:53in the areas of Northern Palawan and Occidental Mindoro.
04:57By the end of the week, the areas that will experience rainfall will increase.
05:01So the rainfall will continue in Northern Palawan and Occidental Mindoro.
05:05We will also experience rainfalls,
05:07the moderate to heavy rains in Zambales and Bataan.
05:10And by the end of Monday, the entire Ilocos region,
05:13including the areas that I mentioned earlier,
05:16the areas of Zambales, Bataan, Northern Palawan, and Occidental Mindoro,
05:21we will also experience moderate to heavy rainfall.
05:26To those who mentioned areas,
05:28we should be prepared and alert to the dangers of flooding and landslides,
05:33especially if we will experience continuous rainfall.
05:37And as of 11 p.m. today,
05:42we still have not issued a gale warning
05:44regarding the type of rainfall.
05:47We should still be careful, especially here in the western section of Luzon,
05:53because it is possible to experience moderate to rough sea conditions.
05:56So it is possible to experience moderate to rough sea conditions in the western section of Luzon.
06:02And this is our track,
06:04or for more details on the track and intensity forecast,
06:08this is Tropical Depression Butchoy.
06:10So we expect that Butchoy will continue its generally west-northwestward movement until tomorrow.
06:16And by Sunday, it will move north-northwestward.
06:20So we can see here in our image,
06:23it is possible for it to leave our Philippine Area of Responsibility
06:27within the next 12 hours.
06:28So our landfall scenario is in the vicinity of Hainan, China
06:33by late Sunday or early Monday.
06:37And for Tropical Depression Butchoy,
06:41this is the typhoon that will remain in our Philippine Area of Responsibility.
06:45So it will continue its generally north-westward movement until Sunday.
06:52So it will decelerate its movement
06:55and will turn north-northwestward on Monday.
07:00Afterwards, the movement of Tropical Depression Butchoy will accelerate
07:05towards the northern boundary of our farm,
07:07or in particular, here in the Ryukyu Archipelago from Tuesday onwards.
07:12So we can see here in our truck,
07:14the movement of Tropical Depression Butchoy is far from our country.
07:18But even so, even if this does not have a direct effect on any part of our farm,
07:23it is still possible for it to decelerate
07:25or make the southwest monsoon wind
07:28that will cause rain to fall on a large part of our country.
07:31So this Luzon, Visayas in particular,
07:34will experience rain in the next few days.
07:37We are hoping that this storm,
07:40possibly a tropical storm category,
07:43will continue its intensification in the next few days.
07:46So tropical storm category by Sunday,
07:49it will continue its intensification.
07:51It is possible that this will become a typhoon category
07:53when Tuesday or Tuesday comes.
08:07For more UN videos visit www.un.org