Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00MLB All-Star Game on this Tuesday night in Arlington, Texas. It's the home of the
00:06Rangers. It's Globe Life Field for the Midsummer Classic in 2024. So again, let's
00:12look at what we have in terms of those odds. The American League, in terms of the
00:17updated numbers, live on the FanDuel Sportsbook, an ever-so-slight favorite at
00:21minus 118. The Over-Under stands at seven and a half. We'll get to the trends in
00:27just a moment, but a small peculiarity, if you will, in terms of the numbers. The
00:32American League, the favorite, but the underdog according to the run line, plus
00:37one and a half. If you want to take the run and a half, though, it's minus 205 in
00:43terms of that juice. To lay the one and a half runs with the visiting team being
00:48the NL, it's plus 168. Yeah, and it is an interesting way to bet it, but again, just
00:54shows you true coin flip here as we match up between the National League and
00:58the American League at that minus 118 plus 100 price clip there. And again, you
01:02brought up, what, 13 of the last 18 games? You're going under that seven and a half.
01:05So for me, there's no real advantages. Because the one thing I always talk
01:10about, like betting in a vacuum. If I know the starting pitcher is going to be, I
01:13know what the lineup is going to be. At least that's going to be somewhat
01:15formidable over the first five innings. After one inning, you have no idea who's
01:19coming in the game, who's pitching for how long, and what players are going to
01:22get those batting advantages. So good luck if you have a formula or a theory
01:25outside of, oh yeah, the American League wins every single year. Well, then maybe
01:29you just stick with that. But if we're handicapping at the Major League
01:32Baseball game at the All-Star break, it's a tough scene, man. There's really not
01:35much to go off of. Yeah, there are the trends, right? But how do those carry
01:40over year to year when the rosters are different despite probably some familiar
01:43faces? Although a ton of first-time All-Stars this year and a ton of them on
01:49the younger side, 27 years or younger. As we look at the lineups, do you think
01:55either one has the edge? The American League will lead off with Steven Kwan,
01:59then Gunnar Henderson, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, so on and so forth. The American
02:04League starter is Corbin Burns. On the other side for the National League, we
02:08got three fills in the starting lineup. Shohei Otani in the home run derby
02:12champ and Teoscar Hernandez. Multiple players for the Dodgers. And of course,
02:17potentially the highlight in the biggest storyline entering the
02:20Midsummer Classic, the rookie starter for the NL, that's Pittsburgh's Paul
02:25Skeens. Yeah, that's gonna be the cool part about it. Like, that's why I think I
02:28like the All-Star game the most is you get to see Skeens right out of the gate
02:32and well deserving to be that starting pitcher. And people will hang on just to
02:36see him. Like, you know what? Let me catch the game. I'll see the starting lineups
02:38here. As opposed to just saying, like, ah, game starts now. You actually want to see
02:42what Paul Skeens is going to do. So that I'm excited by. And also at the FanDuel
02:46Sportsbook, that velocity of the first pitch over 101 at a plus 400 price
02:51under 99 miles an hour at a minus 104 price and a couple price points there
02:55in between. You know he is going to be absolutely amped up. And there's one
03:00thing that you understand. Ben, he's not throwing an off-speed pitch to start
03:04Steven Kwan off. He is going to challenge him with a fastball. And I
03:07would bet that it's going to be at least 100 miles or above. I'm not doubting
03:12the other goal. And again, 99 is an unbelievably fast fastball. But we're
03:15not betting under 99, are we? Who's out there doing that? No, I don't think so.
03:20I would not take it today when Paul Skeens knows that he probably has at
03:24max two innings, maybe an inning and a third inning and two thirds that we hope
03:29to see him at least get through that cleanup spot for the American League.
03:32Paul Skeens versus Aaron Judge. That is going to be pure theater. A couple of
03:38trends to know, right? The American League last year going down to the NL
03:42despite being in an AL ballpark out in Seattle. It snapped a nine-game win
03:48streak for the American League. Is it a coincidence? Is it a trend? It's hard to
03:54bet against, I guess from that perspective, for what we have seen. But a
03:58nine-game win streak for the AL coming to a close last year. Three to two the
04:03final though in favor of the National League. Three of the last four midsummer
04:07classics decided by just a lone run. So they've all been rather competitive,
04:12which makes for a fun atmosphere as well. And seven of the last ten have
04:17featured seven runs or less, which leads to our total of seven and a hook. Yes, and
04:23that seven and a hook is interesting because most people say, what are you
04:26kidding me? Seven and a half year exhibition game, unbelievable hitters.
04:29Yes, we understand that. But the focus is typically very good pitching beats very
04:34good hitting on a day-to-day basis. And also keep in mind, it's not as if, and
04:38again, Paul Skeens, as I was joking yesterday on the radio, just let him go
04:41seven innings. Like we would love that as a fan base. But obviously Pittsburgh
04:44wouldn't love that. Management would love that. And they would never do it because
04:46the design of the All-Star game is everybody wants to get in and
04:49participate. So the reason you bring that up is Paul Skeens knows he's got one
04:53inning to pitch bad. So it's not as if like, hey kid, 103, 104 on the black on
04:58the outside. That's not gonna sustain over 90 pitches. He goes, yeah, I got 15
05:01pitches. I can really let it rip. Same thing with the relievers coming in from
05:05the bullpen. What are they coming in for? Just to throw absolute heat and be
05:10filthy and be rested. That's the tough part because you see the seven and a
05:13half ago, I don't understand. These hitters are awesome. Sooner or later,
05:16they'll catch up. But you watch time after time, like, boy, these batters
05:19can't even get a glimpse of some of these pitchers. They're so amped up. And
05:23once again, they know they're only throwing 12 pitches in a half of an
05:27inning so they can go extra gas pedal as opposed to waiting it out in time to
05:31get inviting bikes. They know they gotta go seven innings for sure. Absolutely.
05:36So and Donnie, as we saw yesterday, it wasn't exactly a batter's ballpark even
05:41for BP in a home run derby. You made the point. I think it's pretty sound. I
05:46think we can expect that to be the case for the Midsummer Classic. Looking out
05:50for the audience in those hot Texas summers, the roof is going to be mostly
05:55closed. The A. C. Is going to be bumping in. It's not going to be all that
05:58humidity and hot air that helps with offensive numbers, at least unless they
06:03make a drastic change from the night of when offense should be first and
06:07foremost, when we might give a little bit of credit to those arms on the
06:12bump. Now let's talk all star game MVP. By no means are we surprised to see
06:17Shohei Otani as the favorite at 8 to 1 plus 9 50, though, for Aaron Judge, I
06:23guess what is a little bit surprising three of the five best prices from the
06:28American League, which would make sense because they are the favorites. If the
06:33American League wins, you're not going to see a National League player when
06:37the all star game MVP award. At least I would think that is highly unlikely. So
06:42show a for the underdogs still the favorite at an 8 to 1 number full
06:46dollar and a half in front of Aaron Judge. Yeah, I guess you're looking at
06:50the starters, right? And you're saying like, well, people and granted the
06:53managers understand this as well. You come to the all star game. Yes,
06:56everybody wants to play. But who are the superstars that you want to see get
06:59multiple bats? Is anybody going to be happy with this? Like, Oh, Tony got up,
07:02got one of background that out. You didn't see him again. Now we want to see
07:05him for at least two at bats here. So that's why you're taking a look at some
07:07of those superstars up there with the highest numbers. The number one, that's
07:10who the people are going to be better. Number two, those guys are unbelievable
07:13players, each one of them with legitimate chances to hit home runs, get
07:16multiple hits and multiple R. B. I. But number two is, you know that you're
07:20more likely to get multiple at bats from those top players than you will a
07:23reserve coming in for maybe a pinch hit chance at that point. So MVP makes
07:27sense. Like if Otani gets in the first inning, hits a home run, you could
07:30probably just end the game and give him the MVP right there, regardless of the
07:33way it plays out. So hey, Otani, the shortest price of plus 4 42 hit a long
07:38ball tonight in Arlington. But even that goes to speak about what these
07:44pitchers are expected to do show his number consistently this year. 2 to 1
07:48Aaron judge right around that price as well. Judge 34 home runs the most in
07:53the big show. Hey, the most in the National League, second most in Major
07:56League Baseball with 29. They're not expected to go deep necessarily based
08:02on what the regular season performances have to say. William Contreras plus 8
08:0870, one of the best catchers in all Major League Baseball for Milwaukee.
08:12The Brewers have multiple starters in that National League lineup with
08:15Christian Yelich as well. Gunner Henderson. Bad performance last night.
08:20Only 11 home runs in the opening round, the least of all eight contestants in
08:25the home run derby. Maybe he finds his footing tonight against the more live
08:29ball competition and Paul Skeens. Yeah. And again, the one guy that I'm
08:34probably trying to avoid just going head to head with, like if you say,
08:36Don, hey, Corbin Burns on the mound, he's a fantastic pitcher. But I don't
08:39that dissuades me from taking like a Bryce Harper plus 7 50 number. But guys
08:43like, let's just say Aaron judge, you probably come up in the first inning
08:46against skeins and maybe that's one of the two at bats. I don't know if
08:50there's going to be a home run technically, even though we did see
08:52shortly, Tony hit a home run off of Paul Skeens a few starts ago. That's to
08:56try the way you play. You're almost looking for the bigger fish to fry,
08:59like a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Who you know is going to be swinging from his
09:02heels. They're probably won't be facing off against skeins. 9 to 1 price.
09:06Something like that. You're telling me there's no expert numbers, no ISO power
09:11numbers for an all star game that we could use to really quantify our
09:15handicaps. That's a number. We'll talk about Paul Skeens next. It's the all
09:23star game. It's the midsummer classic in Major League Baseball. Let's not
09:27take ourselves too seriously. Let's have some fun. Paul Skeens is the
09:31highlight of this game, at least to start the rookie for the Pittsburgh
09:35Pirates, the number one overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft. Already an all
09:41star in his debut campaign in the bigs. Already the all star starter for the
09:47National League. Three up, three down in the first inning to retire the side
09:52plus 162 first inning strikeouts. How about striking out the side? Three
09:59first inning strikeouts at 10 to 1. First pitch over 101. First pitch under
10:0599 MPH. Listen, it's got the juice at minus 104. If you bet it, you're a
10:10narc. You're not fun. I don't want you at a party. I don't want you watching
10:15this show. You can watch the show. The numbers have to be good. But first
10:18pitch over 101. That's where we go. Hot Texas, even with the A. C. A. Globe
10:23live field. Let Paul Skeens rip from the very start. Yes, and it would be
10:29fun. And what a highlight it would be if Paul Skeens goes out there and
10:32strikes out the first three batters that he does face. You take a look at
10:35that. That's a 37 to 1 price. Three strikeouts in the first inning, which
10:39means he could give up three hits and strike three people out, which probably
10:42won't happen. That's at a 10 to 1 price. But I'm in on Paul Skeens. It's also a
10:46player that a lot of leagues still hasn't seen just yet. He is going to be
10:50amped up, which is gonna add extra to that fastball, and I expect it to be a
10:54lot of fun. So three up, three down at a plus 1 60 price actually makes a lot of
10:58sense, even though you are gonna get great hitters right out of the gate. But
11:01still seems to be on fire, knowing that he is gonna be at the absolute height
11:06of his powers, knowing he's only got a pitch one in a year in the 11 starts
11:12that Paul Skeens has made. Of course, Skeens Day one through 11 in the
11:16history of Major League Baseball, nine against the National League, only two
11:20against the A. L. Obviously, that is not breaking news by any matter of the
11:25term, but just the two starts against the American League against Tampa and
11:29against Detroit. So the guys in New York, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Gunner
11:34Henderson, Stephen Kwan at the top of that lineup that Paul Skeens will more
11:38than likely certainly face. They haven't really seen his stuff except like most
11:42of us on social media. Paul Skeens coming off the historic start last
11:47Thursday in Milwaukee, seven innings of no hit work and 11 strikeouts. The
11:54second start of his 11 in his career on the road of no hit baseball with at
12:00least 10 Ks. He's the only player in Major League Baseball history that can
12:05say they have made two no hit starts on the road with at least 10 strikeouts. He
12:12only went 13 total innings in those two starts, but still obviously historic and
12:17worth noting. If I'm going to sprinkle on the all star game, it's going to be
12:22on Paul Skeens. How about a nerfy DRS? As we look at some of the other prompts
12:27that we will see, we know scoring is often limited. Seven of the last 10
12:31Midsummer Classic, seven runs or less on the board. Might it be scoreless at the
12:36end of one frame tonight? It's minus 1 45. Yeah, not a bad thought process
12:41behind that, because again, you get to look. You have all stars all over the
12:44place because it's the all star game. We understand that, but the pitchers
12:47usually outdo the hitters here, even though first three batters in each
12:50lineup are certainly great. Three first batters. I just lean towards the
12:54pitchers. You're looking at Corbin Burns, maybe the Cy Young on one side
12:56of Paul Skeens. Maybe the unheralded Sky Young here from the National League
13:00should be fun to play out. I am interested in the under seven and a
13:04half, so each one of these pitcher leaning props here. That's certainly
13:07what I'm looking forward to at this point. I don't know if we get a run
13:10scored in the first inning, because once again, great pitchers amped up only
13:13need to pitch 12 or 15 pitches. I don't know. Unless we're getting a solo home
13:17run in the first inning, I don't think we score
13:19the top of the National League lineup. Of course, could tell Marte of the
13:23Arizona Diamondbacks show. Hey, Otani in that two hole trade Turner in that
13:28three hole as well with Bryce Harper batting cleanup. As of right now, we
13:32shared with the top of the A. L lineup is, but just to remind Stephen Kwan
13:36Gunner Henderson, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Now let me ask you this just
13:42from a numbers perspective. Drs 10 plus runs in all total plus 2 60. Not
13:48only the trends 13 of the last 17 midsummer classics under seven of the
13:54last 10 7 runs or less plus 2 60 seem like too short of a price to see
14:00double digits run scored tonight in Arlington. It does. It really does
14:04because again, we're not going to get the position player pitching in the
14:08seventh inning at this point, right? It's going to be hammers after hammers
14:12coming out of the bullpen, which is always gonna be a tough scene. And also
14:15you take a look at a ballpark. We're not in Fenway tonight, Ben. Hey, you
14:18know, it's outdoors. It's 86 degrees wind blowing out and maybe you can get
14:21under it. You're going to be in a nice air conditioned environment, which is
14:24designed to keep those baseballs in the yard tonight and we'll see. Maybe
14:27though this is the one thing that we have to worry about any other sport.
14:30But I wonder if Major League Baseball is gonna have the juice baseballs in
14:33the officer again tonight. That would always be nice to imagine getting that
14:36information as a delivery guy. Like, Yeah, the juice baseballs in play
14:39tonight. How much fun you can have with that type of knowledge. Once again, the
14:42only sport that has ridiculousness where we actually don't get an idea of
14:47if they're juice baseballs or not. That's ridiculous. Do you know any
14:51delivery guys in Arlington, Texas or the greater Fort Worth area that maybe
14:56could be transporting the van full of those juice baseballs? I don't know.
15:00But they're the one thing that Major League Baseball does get the mud that
15:03it uses to scuff up the baseballs is from the rank Cocos River, which is in
15:08Burlington County, New Jersey. So maybe I should do a little bit more hunting
15:11around there to see if I can get that inside information. We say deep dive
15:16often like we're gonna break down a game even further. Donny right side
15:20needs to take an actual deep dive of the what River the reconquer. I believe
15:26it's the rank Cocos River is where they get. We like to keep it. Yes, you don't
15:30wanna have like mud coming from all over the country discovered. They want
15:33to have one uniform thing, so they actually put it in the pails and Major
15:36League Baseball exclusively uses that one thing where the refer I think it's
15:40the umpires that used to do it. They probably people that, you know, just get
15:43the baseballs ready to go before the game now. But little interesting
15:46tidbit coming from South Jersey here. Is there like a sign outside of the
15:51rank Cocos River that says proudly providing the mud? No, it's almost like
15:56a covert operation where nobody is supposed to know where they get it from,
16:00which banks and where they're at. At this point, that'd be kind of funny to
16:03see a guy in a skiff boat out there just loading up like multiple jugs of
16:07like mud. You go chase that guy down and get the TMZ on them. What I what I
16:12meant by deep dive from D. R. S. Is literally putting on the scuba deep
16:17dealer going into their unconscious Diver River today to see how much mud is
16:22available on those banks to know if we are mudding up those balls today. You
16:29got to get out of this Valley High School there. I don't have scuba gear.
16:32No, I do have a, uh, I don't know. Maybe a part of the kids. Yeah, it's the
16:36kids. Goggles will give you a best bet on the other side of the break for the
16:41all star game tonight. Next, our final segment together here to round out
16:46three hours on this Tuesday on the early line. But I got a skedaddle in
16:50just a couple of minutes because blues wire starts at 11 a.m. Eastern time.
16:55Mike blew it up and in hosting Newswire today, live from studio as Craig
17:01Mish, who was sitting in the right field bleachers and with Jose Ramirez
17:04batting lefty last night, that had to be more home run balls for the guy that
17:10was bringing his mitt. Zach Hample, Craig Mish battling it out for those
17:14home run balls last night at the home run derby.
17:17Yeah, a lot of fun to be had all the way around. I wonder if he did. Did he
17:20get close to a baseball last night? I wonder if like anyone like went in the
17:23general direction for his side, but he was right on that. You're supposed to
17:26if there's eight batters, let's go for right side for left side there. What's
17:30right with that?
17:32Only one right side in my mind and his name is Donnie. So before I say
17:36farewell and before we say goodbye, it's time to give you a best bet for
17:40the M. L. B. All star game tonight. It is time for bye bye bye.
17:50All right, because there's been some confusion in the structure of this final
17:54segment in the past, I'm going to give my best bet. I'm going to pass it off
17:58to you. D. R. S. You do whatever you want in the final three minutes. I'm
18:03going to trust history in the trends tonight under seven and a half for the
18:08M. L. B. All star game. Seven of the last 10 years have featured seven runs
18:12or fewer in that midsummer classic. 13 of the last 17 all star games have
18:18stayed under the long ball. Not all that prevalent last night during the
18:21home run derby. Maybe it's the roof. Maybe it's the A. C. It's not all that
18:26hot and human to have the ball fly out. I trust the pitchers tonight under
18:30seven and a half. D. R. S. I'll see you tomorrow at eight a.m. Eastern
18:34time. All right, do we have to say goodbye to you? Do we have to give you
18:37like a soliloquy here? You're just dropping out. There we go. So we're
18:42ready to go. All right, so let me have this little bit of space here. Best
18:45bet tonight. And again, if there is a best bet on the all star game, it's
18:48always going to be Paul Skeen centric for me. Three up three down in the
18:51first inning at a plus 1 60 price. That's where I'm going. Now, many of
18:55you did watch the Major League Baseball home run derby yesterday, and that's
18:59where I want to go. Now, most people know if they watch the early line for
19:03the past couple months, you boy, the A. R. S. Got some pipes here, and he
19:06can sing like, Oh, say, Well, why is Donny right side singing here to end
19:11this episode? Simple fact. Did you watch the all star game yesterday for
19:16home run derby and Ingrid Andrews with that national anthem? You have got to
19:20be kidding me here. So we always like checks and balances. How does this
19:24happen at a major sporting event? Because, quite frankly, 98% of the time
19:29we have really, really good anthem singers. So I'm asking this question
19:33now. We saw Carl Lewis in the past have a terrible one. I believe was that a
19:36Nets game. We saw Roseanne Barr have a terrible one year. Those were almost on
19:40purpose. I don't think last night that one was on purpose. So as the question,
19:44sometimes you can have a bad plate appearance at night. Like, Hey, man,
19:47just wasn't my night over 33 strikeouts. Didn't get it done. A
19:51quarterback can have an off performance, throwing the pit throwing passes from
19:54the pocket. Like, Hey, man, that guy's usually really good. My question is,
19:57did Ingrid Andrews have a bad performance? Was that indicative of
20:02that's the way she does sing and all. Sometimes we always want to have a redo
20:08with some things we do. Should we bring back Ingrid Andrews tonight to sing the
20:12all star game national anthem before it starts as a redeeming quality? So I
20:17thought that was interesting yesterday. And also, if you want me to do the
20:19commissioner of sports here and always starts with all star games, here's what
20:24we need to do yesterday in a home run derby, right? You saw the players
20:27wearing their individual jerseys. We need to get back to that in sports here
20:30where each and every one like the home team in the all star game, they wear
20:34their home jerseys individually so you can see which teams they're on. And I
20:38think it sticks out more kindly as opposed to an American League uniform
20:42and a National League uniform. We just got to get back to some things that the
20:45fans certainly would enjoy. Now, granted, everybody's gonna say, Why?
20:49The jersey sales for the all star game have to improve. So that's why you make
20:53different jerseys up. They still used to wear those warm up jerseys in the
20:56practice jerseys there all around the all star game before they actually put
20:59on their uniforms home and away. At that point, I just like to see that happen at
21:04that point. But the all star game tonight is gonna be underway, and we're
21:07so close people. Why? Because once that's over Wednesday is hump day here,
21:12it's usually tough to say we can get to Friday. There's a ton of Major League
21:15baseball. There's not a lot going on on Wednesday or Thursday. But once we get
21:19to Friday and you can see the light at the end of the tunnel and the Major
21:23League baseball season is back underway, and just about every single
21:26team is going to be in camp. What a time it's going to be, and I can't wait
21:31to see that happen. And some people might be looking forward to the WNBA
21:34All Star game, which is gonna take place on Saturday. But the second half
21:38of the Major League baseball season is going to be exciting and also keep in
21:40mind some of those important dates. The end of the month, we're gonna have the
21:43trade deadline here. Games are gonna make up their final rosters as they get
21:47ready to try to win a World Series. It's a good time right now. The all star
21:51games tonight. Hopefully we cash in some tickets and away we go. That'll do
21:55it for today's early line episode on a Tuesday. We'll be back on Wednesday.
21:59Both my stuff and Ben Stevens enjoy the game tonight. Good luck on those
22:03weeks.