Ken Barkley the Awards GOAT breaks down his process for betting on Rookie of the Year in Major League Baseball and what bettors can look for.
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00:00I guess I want to just do my philosophy here real quick, just because it relates to everything
00:03Jake's been saying. This sounds, if you're listening to this and you like awards because
00:08you follow the show and you're waiting for that great opportunity to come in and make a lot of
00:12money, this might all sound like a lot of bad news, right? It sounds, oh man, thought we were
00:17going to have something. If you like awards, you want situations where long shots can win.
00:22And maybe in the AL, maybe you get a little bit of that. I don't know if you're going to get,
00:26I think in both Cy Young markets, you have a chance to get some of that for sure still.
00:29And in the rookie, this sounds like, ah, like bad news, just nothing going on here. I think
00:34if you're looking for a bright spot, a piece of good news, and this was my betting philosophy a
00:37couple of weeks ago when we talked about this award market, where I say like, you don't have
00:41to bet into this right now because here's the good news. Maybe Skeens is unbelievable. Maybe
00:46he's ledger. Maybe he wins Cy Young. Maybe just goes nuts in every single start. If he's ever bad,
00:52like you will get the warning sign. He will have a bad start. It will happen. Like if it happens,
00:57you can see the bad start. You can get that information and the market is going to be so
01:03in love with him anyway. You're going to have a great opportunity to make a bet. I mean,
01:06we are so overweight on Skeens money and Skeens support in this market. If he does fall apart,
01:12even for one start and you're like, well, finally, at least it's like a crack in the armor.
01:16Like if you even get that start, he's always minus 350. I bet he has a bad start. I bet he's
01:21minus 280 like the next day or like minus 250. Great betting opportunity at that point because
01:27now the wheels are coming off. Now the war projections are going down and now you can
01:31come in and bet the position. So you get, it's actually kind of the best of both worlds. Like
01:35you can do nothing now and you don't lose any money and you can get information and it's not
01:40going to get into the market very much because everybody's going to love Skeens still and you're
01:44going to know better. You're going to be like, well, it actually crushes him statistically
01:47because of six earned, seven earned in a start. That's a big deal. He just hasn't done it yet.
01:51So the good news is you can wait and just wait for the bad start. And the best time to bet
01:56against Paul Skeens is actually going to be after the bad start because everyone's still going to
02:00think he's going to win anyway. And I think that's actually some good news in this market.