Ayon sa Department of Energy, problemang maituturing ang pagnipis ng power supply sa Pilipinas na nagdudulot ng mga brownout.
Dagdag pa rito ang inaasahang depletion ng Malampaya Gas Field na nag-aambag sa 20% ng power supply sa Luzon.
Ano nga ba ang mangyayari kung tuluyang maubos ang gas deposits sa Malampaya? Here’s what you #NeedToKnow.
Dagdag pa rito ang inaasahang depletion ng Malampaya Gas Field na nag-aambag sa 20% ng power supply sa Luzon.
Ano nga ba ang mangyayari kung tuluyang maubos ang gas deposits sa Malampaya? Here’s what you #NeedToKnow.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Rotational brownout is possible in more than 20 provinces in Luzon and Visayas this evening.
00:06The Luzon grid will be put on a red alert today.
00:09The Luzon grid is now on a red alert.
00:13Is it a brownout again?
00:15That is the situation of the majority whenever the grids in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao are put under a yellow or red alert.
00:23It is a problem to consider the declining power supply in the Philippines according to the Department of Energy or DOE.
00:30In addition to this, Malampaya gas field is expected to deplete, which contributes 20% of the power supply in Luzon.
00:38What will happen if the gas deposit in Malampaya is completely depleted?
00:43Here's what you need to know.
00:45In 2002, the commercial operation of the Malampaya project started under the service contract 38.
00:55It is located 80 kilometers from the northwest of Palawan.
00:59This is the only and largest natural gas field in the country.
01:04This is where the supply of natural gas from the four power plants in Luzon comes from.
01:11According to the DOE, it has natural gas reserves of about 2.7 trillion cubic feet.
01:17So can you imagine if it is depleted?
01:20So if that happens and we have no replacement, there will be a shortage of fuel source, right?
01:26So where will you get that?
01:28And then at the same time, the demand for electricity, especially now, we can feel the demand for aluminum.
01:35So if there is a shortage, the next consequence is rising electricity prices.
01:41He is Dr. Mahalay Aravago, President and CEO of the Development Academy of the Philippines,
01:47who conducted a study on Malampaya in 2022.
01:51Natural gas is a fossil fuel energy source, which is usually composed of methane.
01:57It is processed and used as fuel by power plants to generate electricity.
02:03Compared to coal, its carbon emission is also lower than natural gas.
02:09According to the Department of Energy, in 2027, Malampaya will completely run out of natural gas.
02:16According to Prime Energy, which manages Malampaya,
02:20pressure on gas deposits in power plants will continue to drop.
02:24This will have a major effect, especially in Luzon.
02:29According to Dr. Aravago's study, 3,200 megawatts is possible to be lost in the power supply of the Philippines
02:37if a new energy source cannot be found.
02:41In April, more than 14,000 megawatts became the peak demand in Luzon.
02:47It is possible to cause more frequent rotating brownouts and blackouts,
02:52and it is also possible for electricity prices to rise even more.
02:56If the natural gas received from Malampaya is not enough,
03:01plants are forced to use more expensive liquid fuel to produce electricity.
03:07Malampaya Service Contract 38 should expire in February 2024,
03:13but last May 2023, President Bongbong Marcos signed its extension until February 2039.
03:22In addition to this, Malampaya's operation will continue,
03:26and there will also be a new exploration in the areas near here.
03:31In 2025, Prime Energy's exploration for a new gas source is scheduled to begin.
03:37The problem is, it will take 5 to 10 years before the exploration is complete.
03:43But that doesn't mean that once you explore, you will know that there really is one, right?
03:48Because it's kind of uncertain.
03:50And you also don't know how deep it is.
03:52So, the deeper, the more expensive.
03:55We don't know that yet.
03:56So, what should have happened, we know that it will run out by 2025,
04:01the exploration has already started.
04:03One of the possible alternative sources of energy is the import of liquefied natural gas or LNG.
04:11You made a liquid, the natural gas you mined to transport, that's the purpose.
04:17And then when it comes here, you won't be able to use it as a liquid form.
04:20So, you still have a regasification facility, meaning you will return it to its original state of gas.
04:26So, that's what the fuel will use to run your OCGT or Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Power Plant.
04:33But its price depends on the world market.
04:37So, it is also possible that it will emit a high current.
04:41Okay, so now, of course, when we look at LNG, we will look at the overall fuel mix.
04:49So, its advantage is less carbon emission.
04:53But this investment here in LNG somehow offsets the high investment cost.
05:04According to Dr. Ravago, the use of renewable energy in the country should also be strengthened,
05:10such as solar and wind energy.
05:12But these are more expensive, so the government needs to study and prepare to invest here.
05:19Transition to cleaner energy, not overnight.
05:22So, meaning to say, this should be a part of our economic development.
05:27So, because this waste will run out, we are already looking at the possible sources of LNG,
05:34and then we are also attracting investment in renewables.
05:38So, there is a chance that our transition will be accelerated.
05:42We should know when we will invest, when we will import more renewables.
05:48So, the role of the government is to facilitate, meaning to say,
05:53to provide an environment for investors to facilitate for them to come in.
05:58At present, a large part of the energy generation in the country is from coal-fired power plants.
06:04According to the 2023 DOE data, 43.9% of the on-grid share is coal in the power mix,
06:11while 13.4% is the share of hydropower, while 5.8% is solar energy.
06:19Oil-based and natural gas have an on-grid share of 13.2%.
06:26The DOE is urging to repurpose or retire the old coal-fired power plants
06:32for its goal to make 50% of the power mix renewable energy by 2040.
06:38The current policy does not allow the construction of a new coal power plant.
06:44But that does not mean that the existing coal power plants will be retired.
06:49So, again, the transition to cleaner technology, we are there in that aspiration.
06:54We are looking at the combination of fuels.
06:57These are coal, hydro, which will generate electricity.
07:01What is the combination of those fuels that will give the Filipinos low electricity?
07:07So, it's not one or the other.
07:09What is the combination?
07:11The good combination.
07:12That's what we are looking at.
07:14It is also necessary to pay attention to investment in infrastructures.
07:19You may have heard that we have solar in Visayas.
07:23But its capacity does not operate at its full capacity.
07:27Why?
07:28Because the investment in transmission is not simultaneous.
07:32You have electricity, you can generate electricity,
07:35but you can't deliver it to whoever needs it.
07:38So, we can't just look at the transition to cleaner energy,
07:44attract more renewable investment.
07:46If you don't have a simultaneous investment in infrastructure,
07:50there is none.
07:51As the population rises, the demand for electricity also continues to rise.
07:56Moreover, it is possible for a crisis to erupt
08:00if a new source of energy cannot be found.
08:21For more UN videos visit www.un.org