Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, Senior Vice President for Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, joins "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disbanding the country's war cabinet.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes Breaking News. Joining me now is Dr. Jonathan
00:07Shanzer, Senior Vice President for Research at the FDD. Dr. Shanzer, thank you so much
00:12for coming on once again. My pleasure. Big news out of Israel on Monday. Prime Minister
00:18Benjamin Netanyahu has officially dissolved his war cabinet. So before we dive into what
00:24this all means, can you explain the importance of the war cabinet? This comes eight months
00:28after the start of the war. Sure. The war cabinet was essentially just three people
00:33making a lot of the core decisions. They're the senior people involved at the executive
00:38level. So this was Benjamin Netanyahu, of course, the Prime Minister of Israel, as well
00:43as Yoav Galant, the Defense Minister of Israel, and then Benny Gantz, who came in from the
00:49opposition, former Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Force. The three of them theoretically
00:56had the most combined experience in that they were the wise men making decisions on
01:03behalf of the people. You have to remember that this is important primarily because there
01:08is no commander in chief in the Israeli system. The Prime Minister is not endowed with the
01:14same powers militarily as the President of the United States. So that means that a certain
01:19amount of consensus needs to be formed in order for decisions to be taken that have
01:24security implications. So this was the mechanism that had been created. There's also something
01:32called the security cabinet, which is a wider group of individuals. And then there's the
01:36broader government itself that can approve of big decisions. What we're seeing right
01:42now is the dismantling of a structure that has guided Israel's war efforts for the last
01:48eight months. And we're now headed into uncharted territory without that mechanism.
01:54So I want to talk about an event that could have been the impetus to this. And there were
01:59some infighting within the three wise men, as you said, of this war cabinet between the
02:03more centrist Benny Gantz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And Gantz resigned a little
02:09over a week ago. And he said that Netanyahu was putting his politics over the safe return
02:13of the hostages. So do you think that Gantz's resignation was the impetus of the war
02:19cabinet being dissolved?
02:21Well, absolutely. And you have to remember that Gantz came at all of this from a slightly
02:28different place than Netanyahu. However, I think we need to acknowledge here that Israelis
02:33of all stripes right now are not, I don't think you really see anybody in the mainstream
02:38that's opposed to Israel finishing the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, for example.
02:44Israelis of all stripes see that as important. Similarly, I think most Israelis see the need
02:50to probably fight a war on Israel's northern front against the Lebanese Hezbollah, which
02:55is Iran's most powerful proxy. The Israelis, I think, generally speaking, understand the
03:01imperative of winning this war. I think their differences were about time frame. Gantz was
03:09actually asking for Netanyahu to come back with plans for how to get the hostages back,
03:14how to win the war writ large, and what the day after scenario might look like in the
03:20Gaza Strip. And when Netanyahu was unable to give him those sort of, you know, specific
03:27plans that he was asking for, that was kind of the moment that the wheels began to fall
03:32off the bus. And we saw him, of course, he was actually supposed to announce his
03:36resignation on the day of that very dramatic hostage release last Saturday. He put off
03:43that announcement for the day because, well, his announcement would have been really
03:47overtaken by events. So he announced it on Sunday. Ever since that time, what we've
03:52actually seen is something else that has prompted this, which is that there is a right
03:57wing politician by the name of Itamar Benkvir. He is somewhat controversial here in
04:03Washington and perhaps in Western capitals around the world. He's pro-settlement, a
04:09bit more right of center than even the government itself, which is right of center.
04:15And he started to make demands that he be included in this war cabinet. I think it was
04:22at that moment that Benjamin Netanyahu realized that if he agreed to those demands, that
04:27it would essentially put him and President Biden on a collision course. And so rather
04:32than sustain this mechanism and include somebody that he knew would probably
04:39inject additional tension with the United States, I think he did this actually for the
04:45good of the U.S.-Israel relationship, which is, of course, not how it's being painted
04:50right now. But I do think that he understood that this would have put him in an
04:55untenable position with the president of the United States.
04:59Before we get into what this means for U.S. relations here, I am curious about what this
05:03paints. What does this signal to you? Does this signal a form of chaos? Does it seem what
05:09is the sentiment that Israel feels over this? Because you did mention we are an uncharted
05:14territory.
05:16No, it feels a bit chaotic, and I think we need to acknowledge that. It doesn't mean that
05:21the IDF doesn't have a plan. It doesn't mean that the leadership don't also have plans.
05:26I mean, I think we know that the war in Gaza, the objectives are still the same. The war
05:32plans for a potential conflagration with Hezbollah on Israel's northern border, I think
05:39still largely the same. It's really, I think, a question of having a set of leaders that
05:46are trusted by the Israeli people making decisions in concert, a show of unity. Without
05:53that right now, I think it opens up the war. It's more susceptible now to politics. Those
06:01politics have always been there. Israeli politics are raucous. They are contentious. It's
06:07not two parties like here in the United States where it's just one or the other. These are
06:11multiple parties that make up a parliamentary majority, and that majority can be toppled
06:16quickly. The dynamics change with the introduction of new parties, with people defecting
06:23from their old parties. I think these are the sorts of things that we need to watch for
06:27right now. I have expected this from the beginning that the Netanyahu government would
06:31not likely hold in perpetuity. That's just not possible in the Israeli system. And what
06:37we're watching right now is potentially the unraveling of the government that has held
06:43since the war began on October 7th. And politically, what do you think this does to Netanyahu?
06:48Because as we know, Benny Gantz was a more centrist figure, a centrist leader. He has
06:53now resigned. Ben-Gavir is even more right of center than Netanyahu. So does this mean
07:00that the next phase of this war, perhaps, or the leadership will be more right wing?
07:07You know, that is an interesting question. And at least for right now, I'm not getting
07:12the sense that that will be the case. Now, that, of course, could change. But right now,
07:16I just don't see it. What Netanyahu has said is that he's going to start engaging with
07:23advisors, trusted people that have come out of the system. So former national security advisors,
07:30former chiefs of staff, people where he values their opinion, where they have experience in
07:36specific matters, where he's looking for advice. And of course, this is still a democratic system,
07:43one that is based on consensus. And so, you know, if Netanyahu ended up taking positions that were
07:48deemed too right of center, he would hear about it. What I think what we are seeing is that the
07:54IDF, which is still in charge of this war, the military that is fighting this war, they continue
08:00to engage in best practices militarily. They are very sensitive to the laws of war. Obviously,
08:06there's been a lot of scrutiny in recent months about the way that the Israelis have conducted
08:11this. It's not going to change any of those rules of engagement. It's not going to change the
08:16tactics or very likely the strategies that we see. What I'm really more concerned about right
08:21now is whether the prime minister is going to be getting the advice that he needs in terms of
08:27victory writ large. This is a long war that's being waged by Iran against Israel. Iran and
08:35multiple proxies. We see now seven fronts where things have turned hot, right? Gaza, West Bank,
08:42Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran itself. This is a complicated war, and the prime minister
08:49needs help, and he needs help in as many places as he can get it. And without this mechanism,
08:56that's my concern. I think we need to hope here that the Israelis find a way of perhaps building
09:03some kind of a new mechanism or working some new process out that ensures that the prime minister
09:09gets the relevant expertise and advice that is necessary to wage this battle. Because again,
09:16the Iranians and their proxies are active, and they can be rather brutal as we've seen
09:21over these eight months. I know that the war cabinet has been dissolved, but has Netanyahu
09:27offered any type of alternative yet? I know it's been just a few hours since it's been dissolved,
09:33but what would an alternative look like for help in this multi front war?
09:39Well, you know, I think we don't know exactly what this mechanism might look like. There is,
09:45by the way, a possibility once he's, you know, decided to scuttle this mechanism that some
09:50new one could be formed that, you know, also could exclude Benver as this last one did.
09:58What's sort of, you know, interesting is that Benver even wants this role. He is not a seasoned
10:04military person. This is not a man that truly understands the various theaters that Israel is
10:11fighting, nor does he understand the strategies or tactics. And so, you know, I mean, I think
10:16he's been primarily focused on the status of the West Bank, which has seen a huge amount of
10:22activity. There are multiple Iran backed terror groups that are operating out of there. We've
10:27seen a lot of weapons flowing into the West Bank by way of Iran across the Jordanian border. There's
10:34a lot happening in the West Bank. In fact, there was a report that came out, I think it was either
10:38last night or this morning, suggesting that Israel has arrested more than 4,000 people that have been
10:44engaged in terror related activities. So it's not to say that the West Bank is not relevant. It is,
10:51but maybe Netanyahu comes up with some kind of mechanism that deals with the West Bank that
10:56might include Benver without including him in, let's say, a broader war cabinet. These are the
11:03sorts of things that I think Netanyahu, who is known to be somewhat creative bureaucratically,
11:07he's created new ministers in the past. He's created new mechanisms in the past.
11:12It's quite possible that he comes up with something that looks like a compromise,
11:16but that ultimately keeps things, relatively speaking, at the status quo. But again,
11:21I think we cannot deny that there is a bit of upheaval here right now after Benny Gantz's
11:26departure. I think that was baked into the equation from the weekend. We knew it was going
11:31to happen. And now we're watching Netanyahu try to figure out how to stabilize things and maybe
11:37bring in some new advisors who can help. And what does this upheaval do to the United States'
11:44relationship with Israel currently? Because as you said earlier, Ben Gavir asked Netanyahu or urged
11:50him to be part of this war cabinet. Obviously, Netanyahu has since dissolved it. Lawmakers in
11:56the United States have called out Ben Gavir by name. So what does this all mean for U.S.-Israel
12:01relations? Well, I mean, I think right now it looks like Benjamin Netanyahu is making sure that
12:07the U.S.-Israel relationship remains quite intact. I mean, knowing that he's that Ben Gavir is kind
12:12of a live wire here or maybe in some cases toxic. You know, the idea that he's not being included,
12:20the idea that Netanyahu did not allow for this, I think is a good sign. I would say,
12:26though, that when we talk about the U.S., I am concerned right now that the U.S. may be
12:32a little bit more involved in Israeli politics than it should be. We've seen that, you know,
12:39Benny Gantz several weeks ago before he made this announcement, he came to the U.S.
12:45and he met with U.S. officials against the wishes of his prime minister. That was not a good sign
12:52to me. I would also argue that when Anthony Blinken went to Israel just, I guess, last week,
12:59it was just a few days ago. Yes, he met with the prime minister, but he also met with members of
13:04the opposition, which is not a normal thing to do. We know that this administration maybe has
13:13not been looking upon Netanyahu entirely favorably. And I do get the sense that they are
13:20involved more than they should be in how this coalition has been operating, the way that it
13:27engages with the United States. This is, you know, I need to be careful here because I can't see
13:32everything that's going on. But if the U.S. is involved and we are meddling, this is not a good
13:38look for the leaders of the free world. This is not what we do with other democracies. We should
13:43not be messing with their politics, even if we don't like how elements of this war have been
13:49dealt with or elements of the political spectrum that are involved in this government. This is not
13:55America's place. Israel is, at the end of the day, still a democracy. It is still an ally of the
14:00United States. And it would be really dismaying to see the United States engaging in ways that it
14:06shouldn't. I am curious what you believe this does to a potential ceasefire deal. You spoke
14:13with my colleague last week after Benny Gantz's resignation, and you said there are still a lot
14:18of loose ends. Mainly you're concerned about Hezbollah in the north. What are those loose
14:23ends? What about a ceasefire deal? What are you looking out for next? Sure. I mean, well,
14:28the ceasefire deal that's on the table is Biden's agreement, Biden's deal that he proposed.
14:34The Israelis have been lukewarm about it from the beginning. Biden says that it was
14:39done with the acquiescence or the agreement of the Israelis. The message out of Israel is that
14:45they're still deeply uncomfortable with what's been proposed. Biden, nonetheless, took this to
14:52the UN and really tried to enshrine this through the international system. And the biggest impediment
15:00right now to this deal, even though the Israelis are deeply concerned, is that Hamas has not agreed
15:05to it. And we continue to see rejectionism on the part of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas,
15:12as well as some of the political figures that are based in places like Qatar or Turkey that
15:17are also involved in Hamas decision making. And so I think Hamas remains the biggest impediment
15:23to a deal being implemented in Gaza. The Israelis, I think, would like to make a deal that brings back
15:30more hostages in exchange for a halt in hostilities, not a permanent end to the war,
15:36but let's say a few weeks or even maybe a few months, if it means getting those Israeli citizens
15:42back. That has been on the table ever since. But really, I'd say that the complexity right now is
15:47really, in my mind, it's the northern border. Hezbollah has carried out a very large number
15:53of attacks, thousands of different missile and drone attacks, some attempted incursions.
16:00We've seen a number of soldiers killed and civilians injured and killed inside of Israel.
16:06They've burned a lot of arable land. Hezbollah has done this. And really, the volume has picked
16:13up significantly. And so the Israelis have responded in kind. This, I should note, has
16:18been happening since October 8th. Hezbollah just began firing upon Israel one day after Hamas
16:25carried out its attacks, and this has been a constant ever since. I am deeply concerned about
16:31this element of the war. I actually don't see these as two separate wars. As I mentioned before,
16:36these are both proxies of Iran, funded, armed, and trained by Iran. And really, what it looks
16:42like is just an escalation, a broader escalation on the part of the Islamic Republic to squeeze
16:49Israel now from two sides. And after two sides, we might see three or four. We know that they all
16:56exist. We know that they're armed. We know that they're trained and they're ready to fight. So
17:00the question is, how far does Iran take this? I still believe this is a multi-front war that is
17:06being waged against Israel, not some isolated thing that's been happening in the Gaza Strip.
17:12So let's say there is a ceasefire deal that is eventually agreed to between Hamas and Israel.
17:20Does that automatically stop Hezbollah from attacking on the north end?
17:25No, not at all. I mean, it's possible. One scenario is that if the war ends in Gaza in
17:33some shape or form or a ceasefire is implemented, it's actually quite possible that Hezbollah
17:39continues to fire. But there's another part of this too, which is, and people are generally not
17:45aware of this, that somewhere around 150,000 Israelis have been evacuated from their homes
17:50in the northern communities along that border with Lebanon. Roughly the same number have been
17:56evacuated from southern Lebanon. They've been forced to flee as well. What we're looking at
18:01here is kind of a no man's land that has cleared out as a result of this war. I don't know about
18:07Lebanon, but I can tell you that the Israelis are not willing to cede that ground, and they believe
18:13that either we're going to have to see Hezbollah agree to a UN Security Council resolution dating
18:19back to 2006, that's UN Security Council Resolution 1701, demanding that all forces, all non-state
18:26forces, specifically Hezbollah, retreat north of what's known as the Litani River, which runs
18:32east-west across the country, about 10 miles north of the border. This needs to be implemented
18:39for Israeli citizens to go home, because right now Hezbollah's deployed all across the south
18:44with a massive missile and drone threat. They have 200,000 rockets at their disposal, Hezbollah does,
18:50with some very advanced weapons, some very scary things that I think the world will soon learn
18:55about. This is not sustainable for the Israelis. And so even if a deal is caught
19:02on the return of hostages and maybe a pause in fighting or an even end to a fighting,
19:07we are still looking at a potential war that, in my view, and I said this last week with your
19:13colleague, this could be the most devastating war the Middle East has ever seen. This is the world's
19:18most powerful non-state actor, the most powerful terrorist group. They are equal in strength to
19:24the average European military with, as I mentioned, 200,000 rockets. That would be a brutal war with
19:32Israel. And so this is what we're looking at right now amidst the Gaza war and amidst these
19:39discussions about what happens next. Well, Dr. Shanzer, I hear you raising the alarm.
19:45Per usual, I appreciate your insights. And as the situation develops, I hope you come back on
19:50and join me again for another conversation. Dr. Jonathan Shanzer, I appreciate it. My pleasure. Anytime.