In an dialogue, senior journalist KP Sethu Nath discusses the unexpected outcomes of Kerala’s elections. The conversation delves into the BJP’s historic win in Trichur with Suresh Gopi’s victory, the systematic growth of the BJP and RSS in the state, and the factors contributing to this shift, including the collapse of a cooperative bank and the realignment of Christian votes. The discussion also touches on the grassroots efforts, the impact of cinema glamour, and local dynamics influencing the results.
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Website: https://www.outlookindia.com/
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#ReportersGuarantee #Journalism #Elections #Kerala
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello, Sethu Nath, can you hear me?
00:11Yeah, tell me Shaina.
00:13Yeah, so we have KP Sethu Nath, a senior journalist and political commentator with us.
00:20Sethu, now the picture is clear in Kerala.
00:24What is remaining is only maybe a little bit difference in numbers.
00:29But the larger picture is clear.
00:31So how do you analyse this situation?
00:34Like NDA, I mean BJP made history in Kerala by opening account in Thrissur.
00:41Was this something that we all expected or how do you analyse it?
00:47See, as you have said Shaina, the biggest surprise of this election is the victory of the BJP candidate Mr. Sudesh Gopi in Thrissur.
00:58That is known as the cultural capital of Kerala.
01:02And it came as a big surprise to everyone in Kerala.
01:07Because nobody has expected this kind of a sweeping victory for Sudesh Gopi.
01:14Even some of the BJP people, although they expressed that they have believed in the possibility of Sudesh Gopi scoring a victory,
01:26even they said that it will be on a very marginal majority.
01:30But as the latest thing is stating, if the latest number is correct, he is winning by more than 40,000 votes margin.
01:39So that is a big surprise for this thing.
01:42But at the same time we cannot say that it was totally unexpected.
01:48In the sense that the BJP, especially the RSS is making a kind of a very slow and steady progress in the political discourse in Kerala.
02:00And getting more and more legitimised their politics, their version of politics was getting some kind of a legitimacy in Kerala.
02:10Yeah, it is actually a systematic growth.
02:13It is a systematic growth.
02:15And then plus the actor kind of an image, the cinema, glamour and all these things combined has facilitated this victory.
02:27And then certain peculiar, very specific local factors in Kerala, in this particular constituency is also important.
02:37One aspect which I think in the general discourse, general political discourse has been given very serious importance was that
02:47the collapse of a co-operative ban that was controlled by the left.
02:53And that has created a lot of disgruntlement against the left parties, especially the CPM,
03:01which was, I think, the CPM members were hating that Kairi Venmoor co-operative ban.
03:07And many of the depositors were not given the, I mean, left high and dry to Kairi Venmoor.
03:15This is one factor.
03:17And then secondly, they were making a kind of a very concerted effort at the grassroots level.
03:25And there is also a feeling that a section of the Christian vote has shifted to the BJP this time.
03:33And I mean, we will be able to get that particular details of that particular numbers only after getting the whole picture.
03:41So that is something which has happened.
03:44But of course, in Trivandrum, in Trivandrum, Shashi Thiru is able to get back his lead.
03:52So there is a kind of, for all those progressive and the secular political people,
03:59there is a kind of a relief that at least in Trivandrum, the BJP was not able to make it.
04:09Yeah, but Sethu, one thing that we have to see, Suresh Gopi contested in 2019 and he lost.
04:16But he had been there in the constituency since 2019, very religiously.
04:22He had been working among the people.
04:24We have to see this factor.
04:27Yeah, definitely, definitely.
04:29Because Suresh Gopi in 2019, he came very late.
04:33He was, I mean, he was almost at the last minute before filing the nomination.
04:38He came and he appeared as a candidate.
04:41But still he was able to corner something like nearly 29% of the vote.
04:47That itself was a very kind of an eye-opening kind of a thing for a constituency like Trichur.
04:52And as you said that since then, he has been focusing on Trichur for the last five years.
04:59And he was, what do you say, he has made himself a Trichur person in that sense of the term.
05:07That has also worked a long way.
05:10And then, of course, he was able to bring, remember that Modi has, Prime Minister Modi has
05:16begun his campaign in Trichur with a big roadshow long before the announcement of election.
05:22And then making, I mean, appearing for the wedding of Suresh Gopi's daughter.
05:29And all these things has created a kind of an aura for Suresh Gopi.
05:35And then, of course, his campaign that he will be a union minister if he is elected.
05:41See, all these factors has contributed to his victory.
05:45But mainly the thing is that the BJP brand of politics is making an electoral breakthrough
05:51in a parliamentary constituency.
05:53That is something all the secular forces in Kerala has to take into account in a very serious manner.
06:01Yeah.
06:02I mean, in 2019, if you take the constituency-wise data, we can see that BJP had come in the
06:09second place in around seven constituencies.
06:13That we have to see.
06:15So this is actually a gradual growth.
06:18And when we come to Congress, have you expected this kind of a sweeping victory for UDF in Kerala?
06:30What do you think about it?
06:32Frankly speaking, I haven't expected it.
06:35And I was hoping that the left is going to, especially the LDF, is going to make a kind
06:40of a credible performance compared with 2019.
06:45And especially I was hoping that the kind of, the LDF was mainly focusing on the right-wing
06:57threat posed by the BJP at the All India level.
07:01And LDF was mainly, their campaign main focus was that they are the only credible force
07:08to counter the BJP.
07:09Alternative.
07:10Alternative.
07:11But I think that hasn't gone very well with the people in Kerala.
07:18And we have to think about it, I mean, only after the details of the poll results coming.
07:26But the initial impression we get is that, you know, LDF has got a kind of a very, very
07:34severe beating in most of the constituencies because almost all the candidates are winning
07:40by more than a 50,000 margin, except in one or two places.
07:45And especially in places like Kannur, in Kannur Parliament constituency and where some of
07:52the assembly constituencies are considered as the citadels of the CPM, like Tharmadam
07:57and Muttannur, where all the Congress candidates have supposedly gained the lead.
08:04So that means that there is a kind of an anti-CPM wave in Kerala in this election.
08:15Yeah, what are the lessons that the left has to learn from this election?
08:23I believe that one of the main thing about this particular election is a kind of a, what
08:31do you call, an authoritarian political style of the Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.
08:36That is one of the main themes highlighted by the Congress led UDF in this election.
08:43Kerala is Pinarayi, Pinarayi Vijayan is the only leader and that is the kind of a thing.
08:49And I think that this is one of the main lessons for CPM to introspect, whether that impression
08:56is correct or not.
08:57I mean, there is an impression like that, that has to be seriously taken.
09:00And then secondly, there is also this allegations of corruption and nepotism that too also linked
09:08with the Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and his family members.
09:12And then, of course, the selection of candidates of the CPM.
09:17Most of the candidates of the CPM were above 70 years and that was a kind of a factor which
09:25was highlighted by the opposition.
09:27Compared with that, the UDF candidates were younger with that.
09:33That is true.
09:34But there is one thing, the candidates of LDO.
09:37There are many who are very popular in Kerala.
09:40Like for example, even though they are aged, like for example, Dr. Thomas Isaac and also
09:46KK Shailaja, but they all lost.
09:49Yeah, they all lost and especially a person like Shailaja teacher is lost by a margin
09:55of more than a lakh votes.
09:58And so that is why I'm saying that there is a kind of a complete anti-left and anti-left
10:08means anti-CPM.
10:10You mean a strong anti-incumbency factor.
10:14Yeah, anti-incumbency coupled with anti-Pinarayi.
10:19Yeah, yeah.
10:22And secondly, there is an impression that the present government, the present state
10:28government up to this thing is not working as efficiently as the previous LDF government
10:36in terms of there is a lot of, especially in terms of handling the economic issues,
10:42the failure in paying up the welfare pensions and so many of these things, the administrative
10:49lapses and the kind of administrative, what do you call inertia or whatever it is, that
10:55is also one strong factor contributing to the anti-incumbency against the government.
11:05Okay.
11:06Thank you for joining with us.
11:07Thank you.
11:08Okay.
11:09Thank you.
11:10Thank you for giving me an opportunity.
11:11Thank you.
11:12Thank you very much.